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Forex Forum Archive for 09/18/2016

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GVI Forex Blog 19:25 GMT September 18, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 19 September 2016

September 16, 2016 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, September 19, 2016.

  • Far East: CN- Holiday
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • North America: US- NAHB

19-Aug MON
00:00 CN- Holiday
14:00 US- NAHB
20-Aug TUE
12:30 US-Housing Starts/Permits
21-Aug WED
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- Fed Decision
21:00 NZ- RBNZ Decision
22-Aug THU
12:30 US- Jobless Claims
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23-Aug FRI
All Day- flash PMIs
12:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales

GVI Data Calendar for 19 September 2016

GVI Trading Room john bland 18:45 GMT September 18, 2016
Monday Trading


19-Aug MON
00:00 CN- Holiday
14:00 US- NAHB
20-Aug TUE
12:30 US-Housing Starts/Permits
21-Aug WED
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- Fed Decision
22-Aug THU
12:30 US- Jobless Claims
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
21:00 NZ- RBNZ Decision
23-Aug FRI
All Day- flash PMIs
12:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales

Trading Themes--
  • The new week features key central bank decisions by the Bank of Japan and U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday. I am not sure about what to expect from the Bank of Japan. They seem to have a habit of over-promising and under-delivering. I expect they will announce another round of half-hearted monetary stimulus. Expect JPY volatilty after the BOJ decision is announced, depending on the outcome.

  • As for the Fderal Reserve. Recently, they have turned the policy reins over to the marketplace, most notably the Fed Funds futures market. Fed Funds futures have placed very low odds on a rate hike thus week, so it might be best to follow their lead. As for future policy, all we can do is wait to see what the markets dictate to Chair Yellen what she will decide at that time. I am expecting EURUSD to weaken after the Fed, as their policy statement will likely take a hawkish tone.

  • Friday saw the release of a somewhat hotter than expected U.S. August CPI report. This is one of the key inflation metrics of the Fed. The data upset markets owing to concern that the Fed could soon be leading global central banks into a period of "policy normalization". This expectation has seen volatile equity prices and rising bond yields.

  • John M. Bland, MBA


GVI Trading Room john bland 16:17 GMT September 18, 2016
Fed Rate Hike: Mission Abort!

John M. Bland, MBA

FOMC Wednesday
So here we go again. The next Fed policy decision is scheduled for Wednesday, September 21 at 18:00 GMT. Fed Chair Yellen had put this meeting into play for a possible 25bp rate hike recently at the Jackson Hole Symposium, but economic data between then and now have been disappointing and called the outcome of the meeting into question. Then a week ago, Boston Fed President Rosengren, a former dove, seemingly sent a message that this meeting is still in play. Subsequently on Monday, Fed Governor Brainard made clearly dovish comments. She was the final Fed official to comment ahead of the quiet period heading into the policy decision. Markets took her comments to be a signal that a rate hike is not on the table for this week.

Fed Rate Hike: Mission Abort!

Bali Sja 13:10 GMT September 18, 2016
Why the GBPUSD Plunged on Friday

Keep selling cable on bounces next week. Sell hard 1.3060 if seen even harder 1.3140,no mercy. Fed will hike when everyone not expecting it. Go usd!

GVI Forex Blog 12:36 GMT September 18, 2016
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Amazing Trader in Real-Time September 16, 2016

GVI Forex Blog 12:17 GMT September 18, 2016
Why the GBPUSD Plunged on Friday

The dollar ended the week sharply higher in a forex market that remains highly sensitive to news headlines. As is generally the case, it is the reaction to news that is more important than the news itself. This was the case again on Friday when the dollar firmed following an above consensus US August CPI report and never looked back. A big loser on the day was sterling and its weak showing, as I will explain below, may have to do with more than just the news.

Why the GBPUSD Plunged on Friday

Amsterdam NordFX 11:52 GMT September 18, 2016
Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 19 – 23 September 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– giving the forecast for EUR/USD, the vast majority of experts believed that for a while the pair would be moving sideways backing on the support of 1.1200, which was happening during the whole week, up until the middle of Friday. But then, instead of going up, the pair made a breakthrough to the south. Only one analyst predicted such a possible decline, in his opinion, the pair would break through the boundary of the ascending channel and go down to the support of 1.1120, which, however, it failed to reach, having stalled at the level of 1.1150;

– as expected, last week’s acting of GBP/USD was determined by lots of news from Great Britain. With this, 75% of analysts together with the graphical analysis on D1 predicted the pair’s strong bearish trend striving to keep within the boundaries of summer sideways channel. Which virtually happened, as a result of such a sharp drop, the pair even broke through the central line of this channel and reached the level of 1.3000;

– predicting the future of USD/JPY, experts split into three camps. Eventually the pair managed to support the opinions of the first, second and third camp. 65% of analysts together with the graphical analysis expected the pair to go down to the support of 101.20, on Tuesday it fell to the level of 101.40. 25% of experts reckoned that the pair would rise to the area of 103.20-104.00, on Thursday it obediently rose to the level of 103.35. And, finally, the remaining 10% of experts expected the pair to move in a sideways trend, eventually, the pair wrapped up the week almost at the same level it had started from – in the area of 102.25-102.60;

– USD/CHF pair sprang no surprises. As the experts expected, it failed to move away from the pivot point of 0.9800, having ended the week just at that very level.

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– reasoning about the future of EUR/USD, 35% of experts and 15% of indicators on D1 reckon that the breakout can be false, and the ascending channel, which had started in July, will continue. However the majority of analysts do not agree with such a scenario, they expect the pair to fall further, first – to the level of 1.1100, and then –100 points further down. As for the medium-term forecast, the number of supporters of the pair’s decline makes up to 70%, and the area of 1.0500 – 1.0800 is indicated as the target;

– assessing the prospects for GBP/USD, most indicators (95%) and the technical analysis on D1 insist that the pair will continue falling to the lower boundary of the three-month sideways trend – to 1.2850. As for the experts, their opinions split almost equally into three camps – 35% vote for the fall, 30% - for the rise and 35% - for the sideways trend. The only thing they have in common is that the pair will still be keeping within the range of 1.2850 – 1.3450;

– there is also no consensus among the experts in respect of the forecast for USD/JPY. It is safe to say that Wednesday will be the core driver for the week trend, when the Interest Rate Decisions of the Bank of Japan and the US Fed and corresponding statements on the monetary policy of these countries will be released. As for the graphical analysis, the one on H4 predicts that for a while the pair will be keeping within 101.70 – 103.25. Following which, according to the readings of indicators on D1, the pair will plunge to the support of 100.50, having rebounded from which it will then surge upwards – to the resistance of 104.30, and if it is broken through, then even further – up to the high of 111.45;

– the forecast for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF – is still the same – movement alongside the pivot level of 0.9750 – 0.9800. The support will be at the levels of 0.9685 and 0.9640, the resistance will be at 0.9885. With this, giving a medium-term forecast, around 60% of experts predict bullish trends and striving of the pair to reach the high of 1.0100.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Mtl JP 11:16 GMT September 18, 2016
..."the so-called deep state in Europe is very powerful. .... We must all erect a wall in order to stop the expansion of these movements in Europe. In the end, populism and nationalism are undermining the European project." ... EU migration commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos

EU Migration Commissioner Emphasizes Issue’s Global Scale - WSJ Sep 18, 2016

SaaR KaL 10:59 GMT September 18, 2016
Gold this week
Is looking so good to long from lower then 1303
to above 1350

dc CB 00:33 GMT September 18, 2016
Exclusive Poll: Who Will Win, Trump or Clinton?

" It was the first big case in which she showed poor judgment, a cool willingness to mislead, and a level of political aggression that gave even those around her pause. It was after this mess that her critics said she’d revealed the soul of an East German border guard."

the Wall Street Journal dubbed the "Clinton Scandal Ritual":

"Clinton Scandal Ritual: lie, deny, revise, claim not to remember specifics, stall for time. When it passes, call the story “old news” full of questions that have already been answered. 'As I’ve repeatedly said . . .'"

Seemingly not much has changed over the past 25 years....

"Why Don't They Trust Her": A Look At One Of Hillary Clinton's First Ever Scandals

dc CB 00:24 GMT September 18, 2016
Exclusive Poll: Who Will Win, Trump or Clinton?

The guys who are on Trump's economic advisory team.

Scroll down and listen.

Trump and the 13 Losers behind him

Greg Palast's Election Crimes Bulletin with Dennis J Bernstein


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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