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Forex Forum Archive for 09/19/2016

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dc CB 21:58 GMT September 19, 2016
Beyond The Onion

1) Chafitz and his House Oversight Committee are holding another hearing Thurs starts at 10AM.

2) NY Post long piece published yesterday.:

http://nypost.com/2016/09/18/inside-the-scramble-to-cover-up-clintons-private-email-server/

3) Zero Hedge

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-19/dear-fbi-does-constitute-intent-oh-censored-guy-sought-tech-advice-july-2014-strip-vips-

4) Mon Sept 26 - First Debate. Hillary and Donald go toe-to-toe for 90 straight minutes.

5) Yellen won't dare to raise rates on Weds.

GVI Trading Room john bland 21:02 GMT September 19, 2016
Tuesday Trading

Fed rate hike odds for Wednesday 10%
20-day 1.1214
pivot 1.1176

Mtl JP 20:51 GMT September 19, 2016
Tuesday Trading

Trade suggestion ?
"it might be best to follow their lead" = most but not all on same side of the boat

in betting the crowd favorit costs the most for least expected reward
it is the longshot that costs the least and pays the most if - on the rare occasion - he comes in.

Mtl JP 20:41 GMT September 19, 2016
Promises Promises

mistake of not cranking

Mtl JP 20:40 GMT September 19, 2016
Promises Promises

nh Stanley supervised Bernanki's MIT thesis about they called a mistake of cranking printing presses in 1929....

I do not know the selection criteria nor the interview Qs and answers they looked for when Stanley applied to the FED. From the few public pieces I read he was esteemed for some bunch of reasons which might have included bringing wisdom credibility and respect to the FED as percieved by creatures connected to w/street

For me he fell into cretin category from his aug 29 2015 jakson hole speech in which he was peddling 2% inflation objective as he lamented it being 0.4% short and implying giving it gargantuan importance. But he is still at FED, serving a purpose.

GVI Trading Room john bland 20:28 GMT September 19, 2016
Tuesday Trading
Reply   


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

20-Aug TUE
12:30 US-Housing Starts/Permits
21-Aug WED
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- Fed Decision
22-Aug THU
12:30 US- Jobless Claims
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
21:00 NZ- RBNZ Decision
23-Aug FRI
All Day- flash PMIs
12:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales


Trading Themes--
  • Markets put in their typical cautious session on Monday. This week their focus is on the BOJ and Fed decisions due Wednesday. Tuesday features Housing Starts and Permits from the U.S. for August. Housing is a key metric for the economy.

  • Germany's CDU ruling party, Angela Merkel's CDU suffered big losses in Regional elections in Berlin over the weekend, due to the unpopularity of her immigration policies. Next year sees national elections.

  • This week features key central bank decisions by the Bank of Japan and U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday. I am not sure about what to expect from the Bank of Japan. They seem to have a habit of over-promising and under-delivering. I expect they will announce another round of half-hearted monetary stimulus. Expect JPY volatilty after the BOJ decision is announced, depending on the outcome.

  • As for the Fderal Reserve. Recently, they have turned the policy reins over to the marketplace, most notably the Fed Funds futures market. Fed Funds futures have placed very low odds on a rate hike thus week, so it might be best to follow their lead. As for future policy, all we can do is wait to see what the markets dictate to Chair Yellen what she will decide at that time. I am expecting EURUSD to weaken after the Fed, as their policy statement will likely take a hawkish tone.

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founder Global-View.com


    CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

GVI Forex Blog 19:48 GMT September 19, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

Livingston nh 19:40 GMT September 19, 2016
Promises Promises
Reply   
JP - this Fed shows talk is cheap and the market commentators are reflecting this (All Hat No Cattle)

GV John mentioned Larry Summers the other day -- IMO the big difference between Summers and Yellen is the willingness to suffer fools gladly - I suspect the Brainard cabal would be less outspoken if Summers was the titular first among equals on the FOMC -- the risk of a response would have the lesser lights a bit shy about popping off

Fischer's been a disappointment to me because I thought he might be the adult in the room - not so much w/ theory but with sage worldly advice and a sense of what the Fed is supposed to be -- Has he counseled Yellen about the importance of market credibility and the appearance of leadership ??

A hike on Weds would put a lot of things back on track - there are more important issues at stake than a 1/4 point hike

GVI Forex Blog 19:36 GMT September 19, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   



Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

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Mtl JP 19:14 GMT September 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

so Gundlach is reading posts on gv
maybe just a nervous reaction from him

Mtl JP 19:11 GMT September 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

is or not a promise same as pledge ?

Livingston nh 19:09 GMT September 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

The OTHER to watch for is a downplay of "data dependent future" as risks are now "balanced"

Livingston nh 19:07 GMT September 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

A HAWKISH promise is different than HAWKISH language -- a promise is a promise

GVI Trading Room john bland 19:03 GMT September 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Gundlach in line with street expectations.

GVI Trading Room john bland 19:02 GMT September 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Doubleline's Gundlach:
-- Fed will not hike Wednesday
-- Expects Hawkish language

Source:TTN

Mtl JP 18:52 GMT September 19, 2016
Beyond The Onion

dc CB 17:37 for what purpose d'u make the post ?

Mtl JP 18:42 GMT September 19, 2016
Cause and Effect

September 7, 2016 Carney:
-- Sometimes useful to let FX market know there is a two-way risk to avoid "piling on"
-
GVI Trading Room john bland 16:17 GMT September 13, 2016
By my calculations, odds for a September 21 Fed hike are running at 12% today. They can't get much lower than this.

--
For Yellen, a September Fed surprise could close confidence gap - Schneider on BBRG

Talk of surprise interest-rate hike in the air as Fed meets Gegg Robb , marketwatch

dc CB 18:39 GMT September 19, 2016
Beyond The Onion

JP

Jennifer Epstein

Mtl JP 18:10 GMT September 19, 2016
Cause and Effect

1.32
nh usdcad should be a pleaser to u . again.

Mtl JP 18:01 GMT September 19, 2016
Beyond The Onion

Epstein is a graduate of Princeton University, where she majored in history and was managing editor of the Daily Princetonian

dc CB 17:37 GMT September 19, 2016
Beyond The Onion

Bloomberg Politics reporter Jennifer Epstein asked Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton during a press conference Monday whether she believed the previous weekend’s terrorist attacks in New York and Jersey were a plot– possibly carried out by the Russians— to get her Republican opponent Donald Trump more votes.

“Are you concerned that this weekend’s attacks or potential incidents in the coming weeks might be an attempt by ISIS or ISIS sympathizers, or really any other group, maybe the Russians...."



ClintonBloomberg Politics reporter Jennifer Epstein asked Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton during a press conference Monday whether she believed the previous weekend’s terrorist attacks in New York and Jersey were a plot– possibly carried out by the Russians— to get her Republican opponent Donald Trump more votes.

“Are you concerned that this weekend’s attacks or potential incidents in the coming weeks might be an attempt by ISIS or ISIS sympathizers, or really any other group, maybe the Russians, to influence the presidential race in some way and presumably try to drive votes to Donald Trump, who is, as you’ve said before, widely seen as perhaps being somebody who they would be more willing to– or see as an easier person to be against?” she asked.

“Well, Jennifer, I don’t want to speculate,” Clinton said. “But here’s what we know. and I think it is important for voters to know and hear this and weigh it in making their choice in November; we know that a lot of the rhetoric we’ve heard from Donald Trump has been seized on by terrorists"

Livingston nh 16:57 GMT September 19, 2016
Cause and Effect

JP - I am - I have positioned for A) a rate hike (small but large rewards) and/or B) a very HAWKISH promise similar to last year w/ a Market that remembers last year

A much out of CHARACTER performance by Yellen at her presser

dc CB 16:56 GMT September 19, 2016
AAPL Puts

AAPL is fading on JPM's lack of exuberance and on rumors of exploding iPhone 7 batteries. Moments ago RANsquawk sources note talk of reports doing the rounds that batteries in the latest iPhone 7 have reportedly been exploding - unconfirmed. ZH

Mtl JP 16:53 GMT September 19, 2016
Cause and Effect

hohohohoho... "go back to teaching flawed theory to the intellectually challenged" .... rofl

nh but why not exploit / use her in an attempt to try to skin some posi-pips instead ?

Davao City BTB 16:45 GMT September 19, 2016
Hello From the Philippines
Reply   
Hello all Traders I am new to the form and Global View, My name is Tony i am New to Forex but love it.
I would like to learn from Traders here and I am happy to Help with tasks which you need Done with regard to Trading any leg work like Research , Testing , Etc . I do need payment in Cash my payment would be Learning .
Anway all the best for the Coming Week and if anyone is interested just email me [email protected] . Again i am not looking for cash PAYMENTS .
All the best
Tony

Livingston nh 16:39 GMT September 19, 2016
Cause and Effect
Reply   
A perusal of past post recession data shows that the common denominator for the "weak recovery" (borderline myth status) of past 8 years has been the maintenance of extremely low interest rates (ZIRP) AND the withdrawal of 2.5 trillion dollars from the US economy

The Fed (and the media types) have ignored the THREE mandates in favor of the Fed pronouncement of Dual Mandates -- so maybe maintenance of moderate levels of interest rates needs more attention

MAYBE Yellen has been goaded enough that she pushes back against Brainard - if not she lacks standing w/i the FOMC and the credibility of the markets who abuse the Fed's reticence -- OR, of course, she can always go back to teaching flawed theory to the intellectually challenged

dc CB 16:10 GMT September 19, 2016
Beyond The Onion
Reply   
WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. government has mistakenly granted citizenship to at least 858 immigrants from countries of concern to national security or with high rates of immigration fraud who had pending deportation orders, according to an internal Homeland Security audit released Monday.

Mistakenly awarding citizenship to someone ordered deported can have serious consequences because U.S. citizens can typically apply for and receive security clearances or take security-sensitive jobs.

At least three of the immigrants-turned-citizens were able to acquire aviation or transportation worker credentials, granting them access to secure areas in airports or maritime facilities and vessels. Their credentials were revoked after they were identified as having been granted citizenship improperly, Roth said in his report.

A fourth person is now a law enforcement officer.

More than 800 immigrants mistakenly granted citizenship

GVI Forex Blog 15:41 GMT September 19, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

LONDON SFH 15:37 GMT September 19, 2016
cable
Reply   
Cable looks like itt is set to do a re-play of Friday afternoon...

Mtl JP 15:20 GMT September 19, 2016
Filler up this weekend

or rejoice and pull out the wine

dc CB 15:19 GMT September 19, 2016
Filler up this weekend

so far only in the south...Ga, Tenn, Carolinas, not expected to reach the NE, so far, as there are other sources there. But it gives and idea of how fast the rise can be if there are eny disruptions...was $2 a gal there on thurs.

The campaign side, guess what? Just took a few bombs.

CLINTON SAYS SHE SUPPORTS 'TOUGH VETTING'

Mtl JP 15:07 GMT September 19, 2016
Filler up this weekend

higher price .... s going to help janet and gang reach their 2% inflation trgt . rejoice not whine

dc CB 14:58 GMT September 19, 2016
Filler up this weekend

Price gouging by Atlanta area gas stations up to $4.59/gallon as pipeline break tightens supply.

GVI Forex Blog 14:38 GMT September 19, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 20 September 2016
Reply   

September 19, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, September 20, 2016.

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • North America: US- House Starts/Permits, API Crude

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
20-Aug TUE
12:30 US-Housing Starts/Permits
21-Aug WED
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- Fed Decision
21:00 NZ- RBNZ Decision
22-Aug THU
12:30 US- Jobless Claims
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23-Aug FRI
All Day- flash PMIs
12:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales

GVI Data Calendar for 20 September 2016

SaaR KaL 14:25 GMT September 19, 2016
This weeks trade plan
Reply   
Long EURUSD
Long Oil with dips
I just long GBPAUD 1.7277
tgt 1.77

SaaR KaL 14:23 GMT September 19, 2016
AAPL Puts
Reply   
I doubt will go any higher then 116
target near end of oct at 100

SaaR KaL 14:20 GMT September 19, 2016
Monday Trading

USDCAD waiting to short at 1.3260

Looking good till 1.2800 in early oct

GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 14:10 GMT September 19, 2016
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Mtl JP 14:08 GMT September 19, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner

20 September 2016
OTTAWA – On Tuesday, 20 September 2016, Stephen S. Poloz, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, will speak before the Association des économistes québécois, the Cercle finance du Québec and CFA Québec.

Topic
Living with lower for longer

Time
12:50 (Eastern Time)

Speech by Stephen S. Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada

GVI Trading Room john bland 14:02 GMT September 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

NAHB beats estimates.

GVI Trading Room john bland 14:00 GMT September 19, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Reply   
U.S. NAHB Index September 2016

U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
65 vs. 60 exp. vs. 60 (r 59) prev.

RELEASE: NAHB Index


TTN: Live News Special Offer

nw kw 13:35 GMT September 19, 2016
Monday Trading

usdcad 1.3168
audcad at top channel /and might get the orders day.

Mtl JP 13:11 GMT September 19, 2016
Monday Trading

as far usdyen goes:
rangetrapped 101.20-103
currently only gambling interest in playing it

Mtl JP 12:56 GMT September 19, 2016
Monday Trading

current eurdlr support: 200 day 1.1144
but also a trgt

Mtl JP 12:48 GMT September 19, 2016
Monday Trading

usdcad 1.3168
gv chart points
Pivot 1.3200
Sup 1 1.3151
-
Keeping robot restrained to BoD
trgt 1.32 and higher

Mtl JP 12:15 GMT September 19, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

steepen the yield Japanese curve ... a novel approach to policy - How revolutionary !

Janet and her gang, euphemistically referred to as Federal Reserve (a collective of various award-meriting experts), keep on babbling - might be appropriate , one day some day maybe depending whenever whatever feasible data we think our view dependent cross junctions of whatever some data relevant some day, maybe, we may think judge relevant conditions never mind our mental constipation cerebro-mental fistula condition (i.e. we are full sh!t) - about rate hikes could easily be replaced with a Toys-R-Us kiddie wind-up one groove record player surrounded by FOMC member bobbleheads.
Rewind Replay We Are Full of Sh!t

Would be lot cheaper and - not negligibly - infinitely less damaging to the economy.

GVI Trading Room john bland 12:10 GMT September 19, 2016
Monday Trading

Risk ON?
DAX+86
DJ +91
SP +10

10-yr
1.693% 0bp

London AzaForex 11:40 GMT September 19, 2016
Day trading strategies on the currency pair EURUSD 19-09-201
Reply   


Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Day trading strategies on the currency pair EURUSD 19-09-2016 by AzaForex forex broker

LONDON SFH 11:31 GMT September 19, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

NH- Fully agree with you...their mentality of saving is very similar to that in Germany, hence why the ECB are also idiots

Livingston nh 11:21 GMT September 19, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

SFH - the key word in Central Bank is BANK -- STOP tinkering and let the market do some of the heavy lifting

BoJ, ECB and Fed all have different economies - Japan's folks need higher return on SAVINGS - those folks will start to spend more, save less // 20 years of STUPID

LONDON SFH 11:14 GMT September 19, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

So the BOJ is leading the way in original thinking? Cos they're the ones steepening the yield curve in jgbs now. Having been just buying up loads..

Livingston nh 11:10 GMT September 19, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

You cannot run an economy on "Economic Theory" - this is especially true when the "deciders" are all economists // economics is the stepchild of Political Theory (Science?) and until the post ww2 use of computers was grounded in THEORY not a miasma of mostly meaningless data fine points --- A) Set a goal, B) Understand the PROBLEM, C) tailor a Solution to the PROBLEM

Don't Change the Goal - Change the Solution

Bernanke and Yellen et al are like Theologians

SaaR KaL 10:22 GMT September 19, 2016
buy cable

Same here near 1.2950

GVI Trading Room john bland 10:17 GMT September 19, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

Interesting how the failure of monetary policy to lift economic activity grudgingly is being accepted by the central banks themselves. Lets see if the BOJ attempts to steepen the yield Japanese curve this week. This would be a novel approach to policy.

LONDON SFH 09:24 GMT September 19, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

The ECB sources article talks clearly about how the ECB expectations are that QE will not be extended and tapering will start from March next year- whilst Mkt expectations among banks are still the ECB will not only be extended from March but increased from 80b a month

LONDON SFH 09:11 GMT September 19, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

Has it worked? CPI still flat vs ECB's 2% target Or is the bazooka just empty? I am thinking maybe Mario fires blanks

Mtl JP 09:06 GMT September 19, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

Draghi's bazooka has worked . Draghi's bazooka has worked . Draghi's bazooka has worked . Get your paper ! Draghi's bazooka has worked .

LONDON SFH 08:50 GMT September 19, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

**ECB SOURCES: ECB LIKELY ON HOLD UNTIL AT LEAST YEAR'S END
*SOURCES SUGGEST ECB MAY TURN OUT TO HAVE DONE ENOUGH ALREADY
*SOURCES: ECB'S QE UNLIKELY TO COME TO ABRUPT HALT NEXT MARCH
*SOURCES: MAY NEED TO ADJUST PARAMETERS OF ECB'S QE PROGRAM
*ECB SOURCES REJECT HELICOPTER MONEY, ADDITIONAL ASSET CLASSES
*SOURCE: NO ONE INTERESTED IN TAKING ECB'S DEPOSIT RATE LOWER

GVI Trading Room john bland 08:42 GMT September 19, 2016
Dollar slips from two-week high before Fed and BOJ meetings -- Reuters.com
Reply   
"The dollar fell from a two-week high on Monday, with a stronger oil price the chief theme in a market battening down the hatches ahead of central bank policy meetings in Japan and the United States.

Commodity-linked currencies including the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars were all half a percent higher in early trade in Europe as crude rose 1.5 percent on the back of speculation about OPEC production controls.

Moves in the euro, yen and dollar were limited, with investors eyeing the chances of a shift in the Bank of Japan's policy toolkit and a U.S. Federal Reserve statement that points more clearly to a rise in interest rates this year."

Dollar slips from two-week high before Fed and BOJ meetings -- Reuters.com

GVI Trading Room john bland 08:28 GMT September 19, 2016
Monday Trading


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

19-Aug MON
00:00 JP- Holiday
14:00 US- NAHB
20-Aug TUE
12:30 US-Housing Starts/Permits
21-Aug WED
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- Fed Decision
22-Aug THU
12:30 US- Jobless Claims
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
21:00 NZ- RBNZ Decision
23-Aug FRI
All Day- flash PMIs
12:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales


Trading Themes--
  • Germany's CDU ruling party, Angela Merkel's CDU suffered big losses in Regional elections in Berlin over the weekend, due to the unpopularity of her immigration policies. Next year sees national elections.

  • This week features key central bank decisions by the Bank of Japan and U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday. I am not sure about what to expect from the Bank of Japan. They seem to have a habit of over-promising and under-delivering. I expect they will announce another round of half-hearted monetary stimulus. Expect JPY volatilty after the BOJ decision is announced, depending on the outcome.

  • As for the Fderal Reserve. Recently, they have turned the policy reins over to the marketplace, most notably the Fed Funds futures market. Fed Funds futures have placed very low odds on a rate hike thus week, so it might be best to follow their lead. As for future policy, all we can do is wait to see what the markets dictate to Chair Yellen what she will decide at that time. I am expecting EURUSD to weaken after the Fed, as their policy statement will likely take a hawkish tone.

  • Friday saw the release of a somewhat hotter than expected U.S. August CPI report. This is one of the key inflation metrics of the Fed. The data upset markets owing to concern that the Fed could soon be leading global central banks into a period of "policy normalization". This expectation has seen volatile equity prices and rising bond yields.

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founder Global-View.com


    CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

LONDON SFH 08:24 GMT September 19, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

Japanese holiday too

GVI Trading Room john bland 08:17 GMT September 19, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

Cautious Monday start ahead of the Fed and BOJ this week.

GVI Forex Blog 08:16 GMT September 19, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

perth wtr 07:51 GMT September 19, 2016
buy cable
Reply   
buy cable this week...will enter in NY time

SaaR KaL 06:38 GMT September 19, 2016
EURUSD Bullish this week
Reply   
I just long few for 1.1220 to 1.1230
Gold bullish as well
Closing near 1325... relong with dips a day after

 




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Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
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AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

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