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Forex Forum Archive for 01/03/2017

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GVI Trading john bland 20:59 GMT January 3, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Wednesday 4 January 2017

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GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--

EUR symbol
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for rate hikes at the June 17, 2017 meeting are +100% for +25bp

GVI Forex Blog 20:47 GMT January 3, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Wednesday 4 January 2017
Reply   


Pre-Market Forex Trading Ideas for 3 Jan 2017

Forex Trading Outlook

  • Tuesday was the first full session of the new year. Only Tokyo was still closed for New Year's Day. A few Continental European centers had been open Monday. Those markets who were open saw final manufacturing PMIs from the Eurozone. They came in the same or better than the flash estimates.

  • Tuesday saw key better than expected German unemployment data and better U.K., U.S. and Canadian Manufacturing PMI. Generally, the global economy appeared to be closing 2016 on a positive footing.

  • Tuesday saw several markets get caught out with bad positions in illiquid markets. It could take a couple of days to get conditions back to normal.


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

4 Jan Wed
Various Service PMIs
10:00 US- flash HICP
19:00 US- Fed Minutes
5-Jan Thu
Various Service PMIs
13:15 US- ADP Payrolls
13:30 US- Jobless Claims
16:00 EIA Crude
6-Jan Fri
07:00 DE Retail Sales
13:30 US/CA- Employment/Trade


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk Profile

Forex Trading Ideas For Wednesday 4 January 2017

dc CB 20:35 GMT January 3, 2017
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk Profile

first trading day of the new year, with stox near record highs, automatic first of the month investing may hold it in the green into the close, but all in all not an auspicious start with that sell off 1/2 hour after the cash open in NY.

GVI Forex Blog 20:33 GMT January 3, 2017
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 3 January 2017
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database Updated for 27 December 2017. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 3 January 2017

GVI Forex Blog 20:11 GMT January 3, 2017
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk Profile
Reply   

Late in N.Y., U.S. equity markets are ending higher following positive closes in Europe and the Far East earlier. Higher equities have seen falling Fixed Income prices (higher yields). In forex trade, the EUR is lower on its crosses while the USD is mixed.

Table of Key Current Market Rates

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk Profile

Livingston nh 17:48 GMT January 3, 2017
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Manufacturing PMIs Improved For December 2016

John - re: oil in ISM Prices may contribute some -- just a guess but it seems a pretty big jump to be explained by energy unless utilities are starting to hike as interest rates rise

GVI Trading john bland 17:32 GMT January 3, 2017
Breaking News

House Republicans reverse decision to gut Ethics office...

--Wire Service

GVI Trading john bland 17:17 GMT January 3, 2017
Breaking News

Atlanta Fed 4Q16 GDP forecast 2.90% vs. 2.60% on Dec 22

source: TTN

GVI Trading john bland 17:05 GMT January 3, 2017
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-On
Reply   

Late in Europe, equity prices are closing mostly higher. U.S. markets are up as well. Across the board, fixed income prices are lower (higher yields). In forex trading, the EUR is broadly lower on its crosses. The USD is mixed.


Table of Key Current Market Rates

GVI Trading john bland 16:44 GMT January 3, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Monday 3 January 2017

hearing the WTI selling has been purely technical. Supporting EURUSD and GBPUSD.

GVI Trading john bland 16:31 GMT January 3, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Monday 3 January 2017

WTI weak... hearing crude trading volume has been very large.

GVI Forex Blog 15:53 GMT January 3, 2017
GVI Data Calendar for 4 January 2017
Reply   
Forex Data Calendar For Traders Wednesday features more PMIs. ADP private Jobs do not come out until Thursday. FOMC Minutes are often a market-mover

January 3, 2017 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS Wednesday, January 4, 2017.

  • Far East: JP- PMI
  • Europe: CH- CPI, EZ- flash PMI's, flash HICP, GB- Construction PMI's, CH, PMIs
  • North America: US- Mortgages, Fed Policy Minutes, API Crude

WEEKLY Forex Economic Calendar:

4 Jan Wed
Various Service PMIsbr> 10:00 US- flash HICP
19:00 US- Fed Minutes
5-Jan Thu
Various Service PMIs
13:15 US- ADP Payrolls
13:30 US- Jobless Claims
16:00 EIA Crude
6-Jan Fri
07:00 DE Retail Sales
13:30 US/CA- Employment/Trade

GVI Data Calendar for 4 January 2017

GVI Trading john bland 15:32 GMT January 3, 2017
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Manufacturing PMIs Improved For December 2016

nh- how much of those prices do you think night be crude related if at all?

Livingston nh 15:20 GMT January 3, 2017
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Manufacturing PMIs Improved For December 2016

Employment stronger - Prices @ 65.5 from mid 50s past 3 months -- somebody getting ahead of the pricing curve for 2017

GVI Trading john bland 15:12 GMT January 3, 2017
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Manufacturing PMIs Improved For December 2016

Look at those lines (U.S. and EZ) converging at the upper right hand corner of the chart...

GVI Forex Blog 15:09 GMT January 3, 2017
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Manufacturing PMIs Improved For December 2016
Reply   

December 2016 U.S. ISM Mfg stronger than expected. Final Markit PMI up. ISM report more important.

"U.S.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Manufacturing PMIs Improved For December 2016

GVI Trading john bland 15:02 GMT January 3, 2017
Breaking News

U.S. Construction Spending November 2016

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
+0.90% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.50% (r +0.60%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

PAR 15:02 GMT January 3, 2017
Breaking News

Good numbers . Happy DOW 20000.

GVI Trading john bland 15:01 GMT January 3, 2017
Breaking News

smells like those data were leaked.

GVI Trading john bland 15:00 GMT January 3, 2017
Breaking News

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI December 2016

U.S. Data Charts




News ALERT

54.7 vs. 53.7 exp. vs. 53.2 prev.
RELEASE: ISM Manufacturing PMI


TTN: Live News Special Offer

PAR 14:55 GMT January 3, 2017
EURO
Reply   
Long EUR above 1.0400 . Short EUR below 1.0400 . Both with close stop reverse .

PAR 14:53 GMT January 3, 2017
Breaking News

What is good for banks and business is not necessarily good for the people . Germans will vote , not the bankers .

Mtl JP 14:52 GMT January 3, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Monday 3 January 2017

keeping trading robot constrained to trading euro from short side
selling rallies up to 1.0450
and trying to keep it simple

GVI Trading john bland 14:45 GMT January 3, 2017
Breaking News

U.S. Markit Manufacturing Final PMI December 2016




ALERT
54.3 vs. 54.2 exp. vs. 54.2 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Markit PMI Press Release

GVI Forex Blog 14:36 GMT January 3, 2017
BREAKING NEWS: Canada Markit PMI For December 2016 Improves
Reply   

Canada Markit PMI. Stronger and above the "50" expansion line.

 Canada Markit PMI Chart

BREAKING NEWS: Canada Markit PMI For December 2016 Improves

Livingston nh 14:33 GMT January 3, 2017
Breaking News

The OLD Germany may have been worried about inflation but the EU Germany will benefit more than other members in the club because of a weaker EUR -- Crocodile Tears

LONDON SFH 14:32 GMT January 3, 2017
Breaking News

If we see some dovish ECB members talk then I will listen but the hawks and IFO etc all bang the same drum....and fighting Draghi hasn't worked for anyone yet

GVI Trading john bland 14:30 GMT January 3, 2017
Breaking News

Markit Mfg PMI December 2016





ALERT
51.8 vs. 51.5 exp. vs. 51.5 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

PAR 14:28 GMT January 3, 2017
Breaking News

ECB may not be concerned about Germany - the biggest Eurozone economy - but Germans are becoming concerned about the ECB and its lunatic policies .

GVI Trading john bland 14:24 GMT January 3, 2017
Breaking News

True. Also ECB policy is not only made for Germany!

Still we can see the pressure building...

PAR 14:24 GMT January 3, 2017
Breaking News

Negative rates of 0.40% with CPI at 1.7% , unemployment at 6 % and economy growing at a solid pace are bad and harmful economic and monetary policies and will lead sooner or later to political and economic disaster.

Imho it will happen rather sooner .

LONDON SFH 14:16 GMT January 3, 2017
Breaking News

John

He did say that but clearly they cant as they have already committed to another 6mos

GVI Trading john bland 14:12 GMT January 3, 2017
Breaking News

German IFO think tank says after German CPI data that ECB should end bond buying program in March (2017).

source: TTN

Mtl JP 13:53 GMT January 3, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Monday 3 January 2017

eurdlr 1.0385

Pivot 1.0489
Sup 1 1.0441
Sup 2 1.0414
Sup 3 1.0366
-
IF /when price action goes past Pivot's parameters
use:
20day 1.0501

S1 (1SD) 1.0396
S2 (2SD) 1.0290
S3 (3SD) 1.0184

PAR 13:08 GMT January 3, 2017
Germany
Reply   
Germany december CPI yy increase to 1.7 % .

German interest rates are negative 0.4 % .

Financial repression in Germany in full swing .

GVI Trading john bland 12:26 GMT January 3, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Monday 3 January 2017

DAX +7
DJ +155
SP +18

10-yr 2.507% +4.8

10-yr normalizing??

Mtl JP 12:14 GMT January 3, 2017
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk Profile



It is a "bang" of a start for the USD

Most of you know my feelings about gaps.

GVI Trading john bland 11:16 GMT January 3, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Monday 3 January 2017


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Amazing Trader EURUSD charts updated on your systems

EUR symbol Markets have returned today, except for Japan, from the New Years break. Following wild swings last week, the EURUSD is back to the 1.0400 line. The HOD today has been 1.0491 and the LOD 1.0395. Use the 1.0400 line to set the tone. Below the LOD, support comes in at 1.0372, then the recent lows at 1.0352.
The EURUSD 20-day moving average is back ABOVE the market at 1.0501. Keep tuned to the GVI Forum as the session develops for timely updates.

GVI Forex Blog 10:43 GMT January 3, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Monday 3 January 2017
Reply   


Forex Trading Ideas for 3 Jan 2017

Forex Trading Outlook

  • Today marks the first full session of the new year. Monday saw a few European centers open, and as the first trading day of the new month, final manufacturing PMIs from the Eurozone. They came in the same or better than the flash estimates.

  • What I found notable about the Monday session was the EURUSD close back below the 1.0500 line following a "flash spike" early Friday in thin conditions in the Far East which saw the pair spike to as high as 1.0662. The question in my mind is whether that spike was a one-off event or a turn in momentum for the pair. This week could tell the tale.

  • Today has seen key better than expected German unemployment data and the U.K. Manufacturing PMI for December, which has seen the post-Brexit swoon completely erased. Later today, the U.S. will release two manufacturing PMIs for December. By far the most important is the ISM PMI.


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

3-Jan Tue
Various - PMIs
08:55 DE- Unemployment
4 Jan Wed
Various Service PMIs
10:00 US- flash HICP
13:15 US- ADP Payrolls
19:00 US- Fed Minutes
5-Jan Thu
Various Service PMIs
13:30 US- Jobless Claims
16:00 EIA Crude
6-Jan Fri
07:00 DE Retail Sales
13:30 US/CA- Employment/Trade


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk Profile

Forex Trading Ideas For Monday 3 January 2017

GVI Forex Blog 10:28 GMT January 3, 2017
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk Profile
Reply   

Equities in the Far East closed higher. European bourses are up early in their session. Bond yields are up.The EUR is mostly lower up on its crosses while the USD is stronger.

Table of Key Current Market Rates

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk Profile

PAR 10:02 GMT January 3, 2017
Germany
Reply   
Euro bund and Euro drop sharply as German states inflation approaches 2% yy.

With rates 0.40 negative this is becoming surrealistic and politicians who support these policies will be voted away .

PAR 09:40 GMT January 3, 2017
Italy
Reply   
Italian shares outperform as investors speculate Italy may leave Eurozone in 2017 .

GVI Trading john bland 09:33 GMT January 3, 2017
Breaking News

Big beat in UK mfg PMI. GBP spiking higher.

GVI Trading john bland 09:31 GMT January 3, 2017
Breaking News


GB Manufacturing PMI December 2016

U.K. Charts







-- NEWS ALERT --

56.1 vs. 53.3 exp. vs. 53.4 (r 53.6 ) prev.





TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland 09:18 GMT January 3, 2017
Breaking News

China, Switzerland PMIs December 2016

China.
Caixin: 51.9 vs. 50.7 exp vs. 50.9 prev.
China NBS PMI above "50" boom or Bust line. Caixin up.

China Caxin PMI Chart

Switzerland
56.0 vs. 56.1 vs. 56.6 prev.
Swiss PMI improves to 56.0 from 56.6
Switzerland PMI Chart

GVI Forex Blog 09:06 GMT January 3, 2017
BREAKING NEWS: German December 2016 Unemployment Falls
Reply   

German December Jobless fell slightly (lower is better).

Change in Number of German unemployed Chart

BREAKING NEWS: German December 2016 Unemployment Falls

GVI Trading john bland 08:57 GMT January 3, 2017
Breaking News

German Unemployment December 2016




NEWS ALERT
Rate: 6.00% vs. 6.00% exp. vs. 6.00% prev.
Change: -17K vs. -5K exp. vs. -5K (r -6) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

PAR 07:44 GMT January 3, 2017
RISK ON
Reply   
Happy New Year . Happy DOW 20000 . Happy USDCNY 7.000 . Happy EURUSD 1.0000.

Hong Kong 07:37 GMT January 3, 2017
AceTrader Jan 03: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY
Reply   
03 Jan 2017 07:26GMT

USD/JPY - ..... The pair rallies at European open as a bout of broad-based usd buying sent price to intra-day high of 117.80 following yesterday's gain to 117.67 in holiday-thinned Monday session.

As mentioned earlier, although dlr fell initially on Friday due to initial sharp jump in eur/usd as investors took risk off the table on the last trading day in 2016, dlr bulls quickly returned at Asian open (Japn's market is closed for holiday today) and lifted price from 117.22 (AUS) but then moved narrowly under Europe comes in.

Present firmness suggests dlr still has legs to move higher, order book is pretty light but there is market chatter of resting offers by Japanese exporters at 118.00 and above, so dlr needs to climb above 118.00/10 decisively to retain bullishness.
Bids are noted at 117.50-40 and more at 117.30-20.

Today is PMI day n U.S. will release Redbook retail sales, Markit mfg PMI, construction spending and last but not least ISM mfg PMI and these data will surely have a direct influence on intra-day price swings, so watch out.

Singapore 05:37 GMT January 3, 2017
USD/JPY Forex Market Forecast
Reply   
The offered around the USD/JPY pair is seen gaining traction once again, as the greenback’s retreat picks-up pace against its major peers, after having witnessed a bullish opening gap starting 2017.

The pair is last seen exchanging hands at fresh three-day highs of 117.37, losing -0.13% on the day. The USD/JPY pair is seen oscillating back and forth in a 30-pips narrow over the last hours, amid stalled USD buying.

USD/JPY Technical levels to watch

The major finds immediate resistance at 117.50 (psychological levels). A break above the last, the major could test 117.83 (Dec 28 high) and 118 (zero figure) beyond the last. While to the downside, the immediate support is seen at 117.03 (5-DMA) next at 116.50 (psychological levels) and below that at 116.33 (daily S2).

Currently the exchange rate of USD/JPY is 117.34.

Our Recommendation:
USD/JPY is going down in forex market and it is recommended to sell.

Stay updated with Forex Trading Tips to gain profit.

Rachel

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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