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Forex Forum Archive for 01/18/2017

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GVI Trading john bland 21:24 GMT January 18, 2017
Breaking News

fwiw odds on one Fed rate hike by mid-year up to 102% today from 92% yesterday. The direction of change is more important than the magnitude inho.

USD supportive.

GVI Trading john bland 21:21 GMT January 18, 2017
Breaking News

Yellen sounding surprisingly defensive...

GVI Trading john bland 21:17 GMT January 18, 2017
Breaking News

Yellen
-- Fed non-partisan. Structure prevents political influence
-- dramatic rate hikes not necessary for neutrality
-- promises to make objective decisions even with imperfect data
-- Fed pays attention to USD in forecasts
-- drag from net exports likely to continue
-- interest rate movements could impact stock prices
-- Banking concentration since crisis adverse development

dc CB 21:07 GMT January 18, 2017
Pound retreats after biggest daily gain since 1990s -- Reuters.com

"what went wrong is going wrong for everybody, not just going wrong for Britain, but in some ways it looks like they’re kind of doubling down,”
He continued that unless leaders address underlying concerns, “you’re going to have the same political things about immigration, the laws of the country, how much power goes to Brussels.”

while he was clearly concerned about Europe, Dimon said he isn’t as concerned about the future of the U.S. under Trump, whose own rise drew on a populist movement. The reason for that: Trump's decision to surround himself with a "who's who" list of former Wall Streeters.
Asked about a concerns Trump may start a trade war with China, Dimon said he’s not worried. “I think these very rational people will be very thoughtful when they go about the actual policy,” he said.

Translated: Trump's ex-Goldman advisers will never let him do anything that could hurt Goldman's interests in the US or around the globe.

Dimon: "The Euro Zone May Not Survive"

GVI Trading john bland 20:58 GMT January 18, 2017
Thursday Trading Ideas
Reply   

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GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--

EUR symbol
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy.
Odds for one 25bp rate hike as of the June 17, 2017 meeting are now 102%.

EURUSD MACRO statistical Bias: UP
Spot EURUSD: 1.0704
20-day avg: 1.0515
Pivot Point: 1.0674

The slope on the 20-day average turned higher on Friday.

GVI Forex Blog 20:54 GMT January 18, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Thursday 13 January 2017
Reply   


Pre-Open Forex Trading Ideas for 18 Jan 2017

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
19-Jan Thu
00:30 AU- Employment
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Philly Fed
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
16:00 US- EIA Crude
20-Jan Fri
01:00 US Yellen Speech
13:30 CA- CPI/ Retail Sales
16:30 US- Trump Inauguration

Forex Trading Outlook

  • The key event Thursday will be the latest ECB policy meeting. At the last meeting, President Draghi announced that the central bank would extend its bond purchase program to the end of 2017. The central bank will continue to purchase bonds at the current monthly pace of EUR 80 billion until the end of March. From April 2017, net asset purchases will continue at a reduced monthly pace of EUR 60 billion until the end of December 2017. One question some have is will the ECB speed up the tapering of its bond purchases later this year. With the ECB still not having even STARTED to taper, it is premature to expect a new announcement as early as this meeting.

  • The rest of this week sees a calendar chock full of potentially market-moving events. See calendar above. On Friday, January 20 starting at 11:00 ET, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as U.S. President. His inaugural address will be carefully combed for any items related to economic policy.

  • The Trump comment that he would use forex as a policy tool would be a new element for the markets. The Trump comments rattled the markets.

  • The Tuesday Brexit speech by U.K. PM May continues to impact trade.on her plans for Brexit. May said she wanted no "half-in or half-out" agreements. Her goal remains complete political independence from the EU. The GBP remains vulnerable.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-Off Profile

Forex Trading Ideas For Thursday 13 January 2017

Livingston nh 20:44 GMT January 18, 2017
Pound retreats after biggest daily gain since 1990s -- Reuters.com

The hubris of the EU media and politicians in response to MAY's speech can still surprise me -- I'm not sure these folks understand that the world is changing and a Trade Zone is still just a Trade Zone

dc CB 20:42 GMT January 18, 2017
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-Off

3% FFR by 2019....hahahahahahah

tough talkin' Lucy

GVI Forex Blog 20:38 GMT January 18, 2017
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 18 January 2017
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database Updated . High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 18 January 2017

dc CB 20:28 GMT January 18, 2017
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-Off

Yellen shows she can still move the market by moving her mouth.

YELLEN: EXPECTING TO INCREASE RATES 'A FEW TIMES A YR'
YELLEN: EXPECT FFR CLOSE TO NEUTRAL RATE OF 3% BY END 2019
YELLEN: 'MAKES SENSE' TO GRADUALLY REDUCE MON POL SUPPORT
YELLEN: HIKE IN DEC TOOK ACCOUNT OF 'CONSIDERABLE PROGRESS'

GVI Forex Blog 20:08 GMT January 18, 2017
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-Off
Reply   

Late in N.Y., U.S. equity markets are ending mixed to lower in a mild risk off market. On the other hand, bond yields on bonds are have turned higher in key fixed income markets. The yield on the 10-yr Note is ending at the 2.391% area. In forex trading, the EUR is mixed on its crosses while the USD is up.

Table of Key Current Market Rates

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-Off

GVI Trading john bland 19:54 GMT January 18, 2017
Pound retreats after biggest daily gain since 1990s -- Reuters.com
Reply   
"Sterling fell on Wednesday as investors locked in profits after its biggest one-day surge since at least 1998 in the previous session when Prime Minister Theresa May outlined Britain's hopes for its exit from the European Union.

Sterling sliced 0.9 percent off the 3-percent gain it had made against the dollar on Tuesday, leaving it back at $1.2310 after a brief afternoon dip below $1.23.

Having seen it top out at $1.2416 the previous day after dipping as low as $1.1983 on Monday, traders said the retreat was a natural reaction..."

Pound retreats after biggest daily gain since 1990s -- Reuters.com

GVI Trading john bland 19:47 GMT January 18, 2017
My Trade of the Day

I am wondering if anyone here feels the markets are getting set-up short EURUSD for the ECB meeting tomorrow? Personally I am not expecting much new, but the market often reacts strongly to certain events, even when the news itself is not significant.

GVI Trading john bland 19:07 GMT January 18, 2017
Breaking News

Even Fed does not like a strong USD.

GVI Trading john bland 19:06 GMT January 18, 2017
Breaking News

U.S. Fed Beige Book

U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
Economy contiued to expand at modest pace. Modest upward pressure on prices. Strong USD headwind for manufacturers.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland 18:32 GMT January 18, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Wednesday 18 January 2017

10-yr 2.384% +6bp.
Opened today @2.349%

Livingston nh 18:14 GMT January 18, 2017
STXOX
Reply   
Treasurys are starting to weaken (CPI memo?) and the STOX internals are acting like yesterday afternoon before the slide -- oil tried to rally but has slipped below 52 again// the yield back-up in the face of End of Days on Friday could push USD higher (see USD/CAD move)

GVI Forex Blog 17:57 GMT January 18, 2017
GVI Data Calendar for 19 January 2017
Reply   
Forex Data Calendar For Traders

January 18, 2017 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS Thursday, January 19, 2017.

  • Far East: AU- Employment
  • Europe: EZ- European Central Bank
  • North America: US- US- Weekly Jobless, Philly Fed, House Starts & Permits, Natural Gas, EIA rude

WEEKLY Forex Economic Calendar:
19-Jan Thu
00:30 AU- Employment
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Philly Fed
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
16:00 US- EIA Crude
20-Jan Fri
01:00 US Yellen Speech
13:30 CA- CPI/ Retail Sales
16:30 US- Trump Inauguration

London AzaForex 17:24 GMT January 18, 2017
Trading strategy and Analytics at the rate of GOLD 01-18-201
Reply   


Buy Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

Trading strategy and Analytics at the rate of GOLD 01-18-2017 by AzaForex forex broker

GVI Trading john bland 17:11 GMT January 18, 2017
Breaking News

BOC Poloz
-- Stronger USD poses headwinds for Canada
-- Updated forecast more conditional than usual
-- Rate cut an option should downside risks prevail
-- End of commodity sector slump source of optimism

>> wire service

GVI Trading john bland 17:03 GMT January 18, 2017
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk Profile At Midday in NY
Reply   

Table of Key Current Market Rates


Ithaca sjm 17:01 GMT January 18, 2017
My Trade of the Day

I look more at directional trade and then MACD, RSI & MA's to determine entry. After that it's pure numbers. Stop/Reverse levels are dynamic so once in place I only look at once a week. Takes the emotion out of the situation and it works for me. I rarely trade short-term, but would be looking for a lower dollar for the next couple of weeks. Good trades.

NY JM 16:35 GMT January 18, 2017
My Trade of the Day

ejm, just curious what you profit target is with such wide stops.

Ithaca sjm 16:33 GMT January 18, 2017
My Trade of the Day

Of course, my stops never get hit....... ;)

Ithaca sjm 16:32 GMT January 18, 2017
My Trade of the Day

Sell USDCAD
Entry: Target: Stop:

I work on 2 week rule and also stay in the market with stop/reverse when hit. Short $/CAD at 1.3109, with s/r 1.3486. (prior 2 week high plus 25 ticks). Good for trending, can be whippy for range trade. Looking for good move down with recent break of uptrend. Also long position with AUS/USD at 0.7545 with s/l 0.7130 at the moment.

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 16:11 GMT January 18, 2017
My Trade of the Day

Amazing Trader showed a key resistance at 1.0705, came close but held for those using a tight stop. 1.0680 in play while below 1.0705.

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 16:03 GMT January 18, 2017
My Trade of the Day
Reply   
NEW FEATURE:>

This thread is designed to get back to basics, which is to post a trade, scenario, directional bias or even ask for feedback on a trade idea you have. To make this work we encourage those sitting in the background to step up and participate.

GVI Trading john bland 15:02 GMT January 18, 2017
Breaking News

January 2017 Bank of Canada Policy Decision




ALERT
target unchanged at 0.50%

RELEASE: Bank of Canada



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland 15:01 GMT January 18, 2017
Breaking News

U.S. NAHB Index January 2017

U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
67 vs. 69 exp. vs. 70 (r) prev.

RELEASE: NAHB Index


TTN: Live News Special Offer

UK JY 14:58 GMT January 18, 2017
The New Forex Trading Normal?

Is the new normal heading for the bunkers after a squeeze day like yesterday and no follow through today?

GVI Trading john bland 14:16 GMT January 18, 2017
Breaking News

Production a wash after revisions

GVI Trading john bland 14:16 GMT January 18, 2017
Breaking News

U.S. Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
December 2016

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
Ind Production: +0.80% vs. +0.60% exp. vs. -0.40% (r -0.70%) prev.
Capacity Utilization: 75.5% vs. 75.50% exp. vs. 75.00% (r ) prev.


RELEASE: Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 14:03 GMT January 18, 2017
The New Forex Trading Normal?
Reply   

The election of Donald Trump has implications for all trading, including forex as all markets need to find a new normal

The New Forex Trading Normal?

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 13:40 GMT January 18, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Wednesday 18 January 2017



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EURUSD performing according to the Amazing Trader roadmap -- break of 1.0675 hit next support dead on at the 1.0655 Amazing Trader line.

GVI Forex Blog 13:38 GMT January 18, 2017
Breaking News: U.S. CPI Mostly As Expected To Higher in December 2016
Reply   

U.S. headline CPI y/y edges up as expected. Core CPI y/y higher. Nothing here likely to elicit a Fed response. FOMC targets core PCE.

U.S. CPI Chart

Breaking News: U.S. CPI Mostly As Expected To Higher in December 2016

GVI Trading john bland 13:32 GMT January 18, 2017
Breaking News

CPI mostly in line.

GVI Trading john bland 13:32 GMT January 18, 2017
Breaking News

U.S. CPI December 2016

U.S. Data Charts





ALERT
Headline:
m/m: +0.30% vs. +0.30% exp. v +0.20% pre
y/y: +2.10% vs. +2.10% exp. v +1.70% pre
Core:
y/y: 2.20% vs. +2.10% exp. v +2.10% pre


RELEASE: Consumer Price Index


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Livingston nh 13:19 GMT January 18, 2017
OPEX
Reply   
Option expiration Friday and some event in Washington, D. (as in DONALD) C. -- stox volume has been low but perked up a bit yesterday and oil's back below $52
The VIX has been comatose but a 3 pt rise looks doable
The USD shrugging off the Pres-elect opinion and Cable doing the same for PM -- don't fight the trend

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 13:14 GMT January 18, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Wednesday 18 January 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

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As I posted earlier on GVI Forex as part of the Amazing Trader package... note 1.0675 stops were run

Wednesday Trading Ideas
GVI Trading Jay Meisler 10:21 GMT 01/18/2017 - My Profile
GBP crosses still driving the bus. weaker JPY as well.

EURUSD held up by offsets but upside capped unless 1.07+ trades

Double bottom around 1.0675 (potential stops)

Send me an EMAIL to get access to the Amazing Trader package.

GVI Trading john bland 12:08 GMT January 18, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Wednesday 18 January 2017

Neutral Trade
DAX -3
DJ +4
SP +1

10-yr 2.360% +3.6bp

GVI Forex Blog 11:15 GMT January 18, 2017
Amazing Trader Early EURUSD Ideas for 18 January 2017
Reply   

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Amazing Trader EURUSD charts updated to your systems

Amazing Trader Early EURUSD Ideas for 18 January 2017

ME MS 10:43 GMT January 18, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Wednesday 18 January 2017

Is anyone short gbp or looking for this dip to buy?

GVI Trading john bland 10:03 GMT January 18, 2017
Breaking News

EZ final December 2016 HICP (CPI) unrevised.


final Eurozone HICP Chart

GVI Trading john bland 10:00 GMT January 18, 2017
Breaking News

Eurozone Final HICP (CPI) December 2016





ALERT
Headline
yy: +1.10% vs. +1.10% exp. vs. +1.10% prev.
CORE
yy: +0.90% vs. +0.90% exp. vs. +0.90% prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 09:49 GMT January 18, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Wednesday 18 January 2017
Reply   


Forex Trading Ideas for 18 Jan 2017

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
18-Jan Wed
09:30 GB- Employment
13:30 US- CPI
14:15 US- Industrial Production
15:00 CA Bank of Canada rates
19-Jan Thu
00:30 AU- Employment
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Philly Fed
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
16:00 US- EIA Crude
20-Jan Fri
01:00 US Yellen Speech
13:30 CA- CPI/ Retail Sales
16:30 US- Trump Inauguration

Forex Trading Outlook

  • A key focus of trade today will be the U.S. CPI index, with a major focus of Fed policy, the rate of inflation. Perhaps more important at the present time is jobs, with an increased emphasis increasingly on the quality of those jobs.

  • The rest of the week sees a calendar chock full of potentially market-moving events. See calendar above. On Friday, January 20 starting at 11:00 ET, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as U.S. President. His inaugural address will be carefully combed for any items related to economic policy.

  • The Tuesday Brexit speech by U.K. PM May continues to impact trade.on her plans for Brexit. May said she wanted no "half-in or half-out" agreements. Her goal remains complete political independence from the EU. The GBP remains vulnerable.

  • The Trump suggstion Tuesday that he would use forex as a policy tool would be a new element for the markets. The Trump comments rattled the markets.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On Profile

Forex Trading Ideas For Wednesday 18 January 2017

GVI Forex Blog 09:40 GMT January 18, 2017
BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Employment Data Better For December 2017
Reply   
U.K. Claimant Count falls (lower=better), the previous data were revised down. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.80%. Headline Average Weekly Earnings improved.

U.K.

BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Employment Data Better For December 2017

GVI Trading john bland 09:32 GMT January 18, 2017
Breaking News

U.K. Employment November/December 2016





-- NEWS ALERT --

Claimant Count (000): -10.1 vs. +5.0 exp. vs. +2.4 (r +1.30%)prev.
ILO Rate: 4.80% vs. 4.80% exp. vs. 4.80% prev.
earnings: 2.80% vs. 2.60% exp. vs. 2.50% (r +2.60%) prev.
earnings x-bonus: 2.70% vs. 2.60% exp. vs. 2.60% (r) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 09:07 GMT January 18, 2017
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On Profile
Reply   

Equities in the Far East closed mostly higher. European bourses are mostly up as well, except for the FTSE. Bond yields are higher. U.S. equity futures are pointing to a higher open at this hour. The EUR is mixed on its key crosses while the USD is up.

Table of Key Current Market Rates

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On Profile

Hong Kong 06:11 GMT January 18, 2017
AceTrader Jan 18: Intra-Day News and Views EUR/USD
Reply   
18 Jan 2017 05:07GMT

EUR/USD -..... In contrast to yesterday's biddish undertone due to broad-based usd weakness in Asia n Europe, the single currency moved relatively narrowly below Tuesday's 5-week high at 1.0719 with a soft bias as buying has somewhat dried up after yesterday's rally from 1.0597 (AUS) to as high as 1.0719 just ahead of New York open after tripping a series of stops above 1.0635, then 1.0685.

Intra-day strg retreat in the pound is likely to drag euro lower ahead of European open, suggesting consolidation would continue after recent upmove.
Offers are tipped at 1.0710/20 with stops above there, more selling interest is touted at 1.0740/50 whilst bids are noted at 1.0680-70 with stops below 1.0635.

Singapore 05:42 GMT January 18, 2017
GBP/USD Market Update With Forex Trading Tips
Reply   
The GBP/USD pair embarks upon a corrective mode on Wednesday, after having faced fresh offers at 50-DMA, as the bulls consolidate the recent massive upsurge.

GBP/USD back below 1.2400, where 50-DMA intersects:

GBP/USD surrenders 1.24 handle and now looks to stabilize around the mid-point of 1.23 handle amid renewed USD buying, as the treasury yields attempt minor-recovery from yesterday’s steep drop sparked by Trump’s comments on recent USD appreciation.

Currently the exchange rate of GB/PUSD is 1.2333.

Our Recommendation:
As the GBP/USD pair is going down in forex market, it is recommended to sell.

Stay updated with Forex trading tips to generate profitable results.

Forex Trading Tips

nw kw 04:55 GMT January 18, 2017
Davos

"how to fix the middle-class crisis"
cad added crafty taxes carbon for oil Alberta, Toronto has different twist for name but give some back to needy looks good but in end? o cad spending first installment so cpi good. but up gos ngas for good but coal miners are happy? by by usa advantage from cheap fuel.

dc CB 01:31 GMT January 18, 2017
Davos
Reply   
Wednesday at 8am GMT, Christine Lagarde, Ray Dalio and Larry Summers will discuss "how to fix the middle-class crisis"

Bend Over

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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