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Forex Forum Archive for 04/06/2017

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Livingston nh 21:49 GMT April 6, 2017
Friday Trading Ideas

Thanx Al - I "wish" the Fed unleashed the Treasurys that it holds way back in 2016 - the 2/10 spread is moving back towards the danger zone under 100

GVI Trading john bland 21:43 GMT April 6, 2017
Friday Trading Ideas

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Dillon AL 21:17 GMT April 6, 2017
Friday Trading Ideas

nh the most interesting area of the yield curve actually to my tiny mind is 3 month bills which since Jan 2016 and continuing into this year have done nothing but rise from the zero level to current 81 basis points. 1 year priced at just over 1% is expensive but 2s are about right to marginally expensive being 50 over should 2s get to 1.5% there will be a ton of buyers waiting. as for the rest of the curve yes it is expensive however what genuine alternative is there when you have to have Govies in the portfolio

Livingston nh 21:09 GMT April 6, 2017
Friday Trading Ideas

When does the market start to "price in"? the next hike puts the current 2 yr level underwater -- the 10 yr seems oblivious to both inflation and the proposed balance sheet adjustment // until Trump puts his MARK on the Fed caution is the watch word

GVI Trading john bland 20:13 GMT April 6, 2017
Friday Trading Ideas

Note Market is starting to narrow down to a near certain rate hike at the June FOMC. Its now 74% from just below 60% early last week. In my mind, any reading above 80% is near certainty. I've always felt a June hike was a sure bet. After that we will have to see how things develop.

GVI Trading john bland 20:07 GMT April 6, 2017
Friday Trading Ideas
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GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--

EUR symbol The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy.
Odds for one 25bp rate hike as of the June 17, 2017 meeting are now 74% (70%).


EURUSD MACRO statistical Bias: NEUTRAL
Spot EURUSD: 1.0646

Pivot Point: 1.0653

20-day avg: 1.0727
50-day avg: 1.0670
200-day avg: 1.0861

Tallinn viies 19:55 GMT April 6, 2017
eurusd
Reply   
when last week eurusd closed at absolute lows of the week and below mid bollinger I was 99% sure we going to trade down quickly to lower bollinger band. somewhere around 1.05440.
also there is very very important chart point at 1.0495 last month low. so as week is almost finito. one day to go I assume markets have let the move to the last day of the week. so to be clear - I expect euro to trade down to 1.06 minimum. most likely even down to 1.0540. and this is going to happen before week is over. OR if euro close comes above weekly mid bollinger i would be very nervous with my bearish bets.

GVI Forex Blog 19:43 GMT April 6, 2017
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 6 April 2017
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 6 April 2017

Livingston nh 19:21 GMT April 6, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 7 April 2017

Paul Craig Roberts is a Banana Head - the godfather of Crowding Out in the treasury market

The neo-cons are the pukes that never WIN

GVI Trading john bland 19:19 GMT April 6, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 7 April 2017

nh- hopefully that's true. Lots of things for markets to get nervous about just now.

Livingston nh 19:16 GMT April 6, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 7 April 2017

WAR is a societal decision - the US, Russia and China can win a war in a matter of hours against any enemy other than each other -- none of the three fight wars any more

dc CB 19:14 GMT April 6, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 7 April 2017

Paul Craig Roberts 'It's OVER For Trump Anti Russian Neocons Are In Charge Business As Usual '

Intv

dc CB 19:13 GMT April 6, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 7 April 2017

it's a Reason to Spend a $Trillion

Livingston nh 19:11 GMT April 6, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 7 April 2017

cb - the problem is that it is NEVER WAR - war is real only to the military guys on the ground not to the Pentagon and certainly not to the Commander in Chief

dc CB 19:10 GMT April 6, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 7 April 2017

should be an interesting weekend at Mar-a-Largo

West Palm Beach (United States) (AFP) - Chinese President Xi Jinping touched down in Florida Thursday for a first face-to-face meeting with President Donald Trump, hoping that a basket full of "tweetable" deals will help avoid a public clash.

Xi was greeted at Palm Beach airport by a red carpet, military honor guard, fluttering Chinese and American flags and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.

GVI Forex Blog 19:09 GMT April 6, 2017
MIxed Risk In Equities As Political Tensions Mount Late Thursday
Reply   

U.S. equity markets are closing the day modestly higher. Markets are now looking heavy following worries that tensions over Syria and North Korea mount. Yields in major fixed income markets generally have fallen. The U.S. 10-yr yield fell, but is off its lows. In forex, the USD is up while the EUR crosses are mostly down.

MIxed Risk In Equities As Political Tensions Mount Late Thursday

dc CB 19:04 GMT April 6, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 7 April 2017

nh
it's war...the neocons are in charge
*TILLERSON: STEPS UNDERWAY FOR COALITION TO REMOVE ASSAD
*TILLERSON: ASSAD'S ROLE IN FUTURE UNCERTAIN
*TILLERSON: NO DOUBT ASSAD'S REGIME RESPONSIBLE FOR SYRIA ATTACK
"I think further it's very important that the Russian government consider carefully their continued support of the Assad regime."

Stocks Tank After Tillerson Warns Russia

Livingston nh 18:52 GMT April 6, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 7 April 2017

Into the close SPX 2345 is the risk -- it seems we are in a correction

Livingston nh 18:44 GMT April 6, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 7 April 2017

Beware the Whisper Numbers -- ADP may have set off the higher bar of expectations -- foolish consistency makes me look for a disappointing report

GVI Forex Blog 18:32 GMT April 6, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 7 April 2017
Reply   

Trading Ideas for 7 Apr 2017

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Forex Trading Outlook

Items likely to drive the FX rates:
  • On Friday, the government releases its official jobs data. Because of its detail, this is by far the most important U.S. economic report of the month. Street estimates are for a gain of 175K in the month vs. +235K in February. Odds are street estimates are too low. Recently traders have been focused more on average hourly earnings, which have been flat at about +0.20%/mo for as far back as the eye can see.

  • The first item in the U.S. monthly employment data is the ADP private employment estimate which is based on the payroll data it actually processes. It showed a stronger than expected gain of +263K in April (+189K expected). This compared to a revised +245K in February.

  • A speech by ECB Chief Draghi upset the markets Thursday after he took a surprisingly dovish tone. His comments on inflation and interest rates stand in contrast to the more hawkish (German) policy board members. Just yesterday, the latest FOMC minutes had a surprisingly hawkish bias.

  • Lots to consider. Please comment...

    John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

    Forex Trading Ideas For Friday 7 April 2017

Livingston nh 18:23 GMT April 6, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

Thanx John - more limited "we don't have a plan" policy -- threaten to kill'em all and then DO it still seems off the radar -- I'm sure the UN will have a Loud Shout

How many times do we need to get hit in the HEAD?



GVI Trading john bland 18:14 GMT April 6, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

Sorry. Don't know how I did that! See post...

Livingston nh 18:10 GMT April 6, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

GVI Trading - w/ whom and about WHAT???

Livingston nh 18:08 GMT April 6, 2017
eurusd

Something good in Global Warming after all

EUR/USD has failed at every MA over the past two wks -- AUD is below 144EMA and 200 dma -- both have only white space below// next up is Cable on a break below 1.24

GVI Trading 18:05 GMT April 6, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

Pentagon officials have reportedly held detailed discussions with White House about possible military options in Syria - press - Options are said to be grounding Syrian aircraft or other variations of strikes - Source TradeTheNews.com

Livingston nh 17:42 GMT April 6, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

Meanwhile the Senate, previously a "no nuke zone", has decided that majority is X+1 // this is a Breakthru and the Justices on the Supreme Court may need the "Weekend at Bernie's" treatment (watch for sunglasses at the Court)

nw kw 17:04 GMT April 6, 2017
eurusd

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/new-zealand-towns-hit-by-once-in-500-year-flood-as-storm-system-sweeps-in/ar-BBztLns?li=AAadgLE&ocid=spartandhp

bets. cement audnzd chart, in to cad

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/new-zealand-towns-hit-by-once-in-500-year-flood-as-storm-system-sweeps-in/ar-BBztLns?li=AAadgLE&ocid=spartandhp

Tallinn viies 16:47 GMT April 6, 2017
eurusd
Reply   
GVI Trading john bland 16:03 GMT - nobody takes Trump seriously on FX markwt at least. otherwise eurusd would be trading at 0.95 already. stockmarket is true believer

Livingston nh 16:46 GMT April 6, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

CB -- can't avoid playing w/ toys they leave behind --- easiest sell in the world is to a salesman

PAR 16:45 GMT April 6, 2017
N.Korea with it's ICBM development, is direct threat to the US.

Looks like USA wants regime change in North Korea .

HK [email protected] 16:43 GMT April 6, 2017
N.Korea with it's ICBM development, is direct threat to the US.
Reply   


Syria is only a moral problem for the world.
Jews are sensitive to murdering by gas, so will Netanyhoo act?

Relax: World do not usually interfere in moral problems.

Big Fat Boy will never stop ICBM development!!!

The attack will come soon on N.Korea.
Syria is only a tactical deceit.

dc CB 16:38 GMT April 6, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

nh
see my posts from last evening. 4 of them
21:23 thru 23:38

PAR 16:37 GMT April 6, 2017
Markets not taking Trump seriously??

Another war can be a boost to US manufacturing . Everything to boost the economy . USA specialists in regime change .

HK [email protected] 16:37 GMT April 6, 2017
...he's considering military action in Syria



Putin slams accusations over alleged chemical attack in Idlib as unacceptable

MOSCOW, April 6. /TASS/. It is unacceptable to bring accusations against anyone in connection with the Idlib chemical incident until an international investigation is conducted, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a telephone conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Kremlin press service said in a statement.

"The parties exchanged views on the chemical incident that took place in Syria’s Idlib Governorate on April 4. Putin particularly stated that it was unacceptable to bring accusations against anyone until a thorough and impartial international investigation was conducted," the statement reads.


More:
http://tass.com/politics/939794

HK [email protected] 16:33 GMT April 6, 2017
Markets not taking Trump seriously??
Reply   


So: "NO BUY THE RUMORS".

In case something happens, markets will explode on: "BUY THE FACTS":)

HK [email protected] 16:31 GMT April 6, 2017
...he's considering military action in Syria
Reply   


Will be needed first an investigation, who and how all that gas matter happened.

This may take days.

Meanwhile Trump has bought time against N. Korea hoping for China assistance.

Livingston nh 16:20 GMT April 6, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

I thought we would stop w/ the silly foreign policy/military intervention -- same old same old

GVI Trading john bland 16:03 GMT April 6, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

Markets not taking Trump seriously??

GVI Trading john bland 16:02 GMT April 6, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

President Trump has told some in Congress that he's considering military action in Syria - CNN - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trading john bland 15:55 GMT April 6, 2017
Equity Markets Slipping Into Risk On Mode Late IN Europe
Reply   

Table of Key Current Market Rates

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:35 GMT April 6, 2017
Amazing Trader Update

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As I noted in our meetings, while within EURUSD 1.06-1.07, 1.0650 has a magnetic pull

douglas pjh 14:55 GMT April 6, 2017
shorting due to stirling weakness
Reply   
Sell GBPCHF
Entry: Target: Stop:

stopped out @12526 stirling now stronger so alter the trade outlook stay sat on hands

GVI Forex Blog 14:36 GMT April 6, 2017
GVI Data Calendar for 7 April 2017
Reply   
Forex Data Calendar For Traders

April 6, 2017 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, April 7, 2017.

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: DE- Industrial Output, GB- Mfg/Ind Output
  • North America: CA/US- Employment, CA- Ivey PMI, US- Wholesale Inventories, Rig Count, COT Report

WEEKLY Forex Economic Calendar:
7 Apr Fri
12:30 US/CA- Employment

GVI Trading john bland 14:30 GMT April 6, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

EIA U.S. Natural Gas

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
(BCF) +2 vs: +15 expected

TTN: Live News

Israel Dil 14:13 GMT April 6, 2017
TRUMPCARE

Wikipedia: The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national product of all the countries in the world. Because imports and exports balance exactly when considering the whole world, this also equals the total global gross domestic product (GDP).[nb 1] In 2014, according to the CIA's World Factbook, the GWP totalled approximately US$107.5 trillion in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), and around US$78.28 trillion in nominal terms.[1] The per capita PPP GWP in 2014 was approximately US$16,100 according to the World Factbook.[1] According to the World Bank, the 2013 nominal GWP was approximately US$75.59 trillion.[2]

_______________

did you already watch Noam Chomsky's 'Requiem for the American dream' ?

Paris ib 14:12 GMT April 6, 2017
The Mysterious Mr. Macron

Another ambitious young man on the left, following in the footsteps of the likes of Paul Keating and Tony Blair. Same neoliberal, globalist policies only the man has much, much less charisma.

Macron

Paris ib 14:03 GMT April 6, 2017
TRUMPCARE

Thanks for that PAR.

Trump really knows how to play the electorate, the political game and the media IMVHO. And that is NOT a bad thing.

Obamacare is toast whichever way you look at it so something ELSE will need to replace it. Start the count down please.

Obamacare to implode

PAR 14:01 GMT April 6, 2017
RISK ON
Reply   
Everything looks great . Europe up on Draghi , Us up on Trump ? Japan up on weak yen .

Paris ib 14:00 GMT April 6, 2017
The French Election

The creepy Macron is being foisted on the electorate but as was Hillary Clinton. I don't see this going anywhere, even though the establishment - or at least some parts of the globalist elite - are giving it their all. Macron will disappear down a black hole like Hillary. Le Pen is the protest candidate but Le Pen's policy of leaving Europe is NOT popular in France. So her election is unlikely, unless perhaps she runs against Macron. (The U.S. election all over again.)

Fillon who is not a saint but far from as corrupt or as deviant as some other French politicians, still seems likely to carry this election. France will then be stuck with a President who everyone feels has NOT behaved in an exemplary fashion but who is at least expected to lead France in a way which most electors can accept. TINA :-)

Fantastic election. Or at least let's say a more transparent election. The forces behind this election, the leaks, the betrays etc. are understood.

A Fillon win would be good for the Euro.

Fillon.... TINA

PAR 13:58 GMT April 6, 2017
TRUMPCARE

Us house freedom Caucus chairman Meadows say majority of members will vote for healthcare bill if White House offers are included in legislation .

Fx wire geo politics

Paris ib 13:52 GMT April 6, 2017
TRUMPCARE

PAR did you just pull that out of the ether or do you have a reference?

GVI Trading john bland 13:50 GMT April 6, 2017
Thursday Trading Ideas

Odds in favor of a Fed June rate hike continue to creep higher post Fed Minutes. They are up to 72% last from the low 60%'s last week. Fed Funds futures are lousy forecasters, but they are an excellent barometer of market sentiment. The nice thing is you can trade on their levels if you disagree with them.

Livingston nh 13:47 GMT April 6, 2017
Old News
Reply   
Fed Minutes did Serious harm yesterday to STOX but Treasurys paid no attention despite a reference to the potential balance sheet reduction (still no PLAN) -- stox have an open GAP @SPX 2310

PAR 13:41 GMT April 6, 2017
WEIDMANN
Reply   
BERLIN (dpa-AFX) - Bundesbank-Chef Jens Weidmann hat am Donnerstag einmal mehr vor einer zu langen Fortsetzung der ultraexpansiven Geldpolitik in der Eurozone gewarnt. Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) dürfte nicht aus Rücksicht auf mögliche Folgen für die Zinslast einiger Mitgliedstaaten oder die Tragfähigkeit ihrer Staatsfinanzen den Ausstieg aus der sehr lockeren Geldpolitik aufschieben, sagte Weidmann, der auch Mitglied im EZB-Rat, laut Redetext in Berlin. "Die Geldpolitik darf auf keinen Fall zum Gefangenen der Finanzpolitik werden."

Eine zu lange Phase mit extrem niedrigen Zinsen berge wachsende Risiken für die Finanzmärkte, warnte Weidmann. "Anhaltend niedrige Zinsen können Übertreibungen auf den Vermögensmärkten Vorschub leisten", bekräftigte er frühere Aussagen. In den vergangenen Tagen hatte bereits EZB-Direktor Benoit Coeure den Mitgliedsstaaten der Eurozone geraten, sich bei Zeiten auf steigende Zinsen vorzubereiten.

PAR 13:11 GMT April 6, 2017
TRUMPCARE
Reply   
Looks like Trump has a deal .

HK [email protected] 13:06 GMT April 6, 2017
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims fall sharply.
Reply   


Probably because some Meksikanos fled back to their homeland:)

dc CB 12:57 GMT April 6, 2017
Thursday Trading Ideas

In a private meeting with lawmakers, White House economic adviser Gary Cohn said he supports a policy that could radically reshape Wall Street’s biggest firms by separating their consumer-lending businesses from their investment banks, said people with direct knowledge of the matter.

dc CB 12:56 GMT April 6, 2017
Thursday Trading Ideas

President Donald Trump, said he generally favors banking going back to how it was when firms like Goldman focused on trading and underwriting securities, and companies such as Citigroup Inc. primarily issued loans, according to the people, who heard his comments.

The remarks surprised some senators and congressional aides who attended the Wednesday meeting, as they didn’t expect a former top Wall Street executive to speak favorably of proposals that would force banks to dramatically rethink how they do business.

BBG

Livingston nh 12:52 GMT April 6, 2017
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Decline Slightly

My question yesterday -- where are all these workers coming from? -- look at continuing claims -- certainly at all time lows in absolute terms BUT as a Percentage of the Labor Force it is almost too LOW to be believed

For men and women 25 and over the unemployment rate has been below 4% for months

Labor remains cheap, so capital investment and productivity stagnate -- But Yellen is a Labor expert

GVI Forex Blog 12:39 GMT April 6, 2017
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Decline Slightly
Reply   
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims fall sharply. Moving to a new lower level?.

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Chart
<Click on chart for over seventeen-year history

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Decline Slightly

GVI Trading john bland 12:31 GMT April 6, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

US Weekly Jobless Claims



ALERT
234K vs. 245K exp vs. 259Kr prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland 12:24 GMT April 6, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

EVENT RISK: minor Weekly Jobless Claims @12:30 GMT

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:59 GMT April 6, 2017
Amazing Trader Update
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EURUSD: 1.0659, low 1.0653

Upside stalled below an Amazing Trader intra-day trendline (1.0677 vs. high at 1.0675). 2 pip risk/22 pip move

GVI Trading john bland 11:48 GMT April 6, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

more ECB caution??

Israel Dil 11:48 GMT April 6, 2017
North Korea

Reuters: PRESIDENT Rodrigo Duterte on Thursday ordered the Armed Forces of the Philippines to occupy all islands being claimed by the country in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea).

______________

developing story?

GVI Trading john bland 11:48 GMT April 6, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

ECB’s Constancio (Portugal): Reiterates General Council view that too soon to declare success on inflation - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trading john bland 11:14 GMT April 6, 2017
Thursday Trading Ideas

DAX -27
DJ +21
SP +2.5

10-yr 2.353% -0.8bp

HK [email protected] 11:00 GMT April 6, 2017
North Korea


Any deal? Or specu-deal. If no details no deal!

China had long enough time to pressure N.Korea.

Nothing will come out of it.

Probably the final solution will be , missiles blitzy attack on Fat-Crazy-Kid.

Israel Dil 10:53 GMT April 6, 2017
North Korea

China saying 'we should discuss with our neighbours about a solution' would mean there is a deal

Israel Dil 10:52 GMT April 6, 2017
North Korea

any deal about N-Korea between USA and China is not to become of public knowledge as it happens. China's current goal is to slow the down fase of it's economy, both sides reach the meeting knowing that.

PAR 10:48 GMT April 6, 2017
North Korea
Reply   
Trump deal with Xi Jingping could boost markets .

douglas pjh 10:46 GMT April 6, 2017
short trade on EZ neg
Reply   
Sell GBPCHF
Entry: Target: Stop:

looking for a short trade if £ gets pushed lower in @ 12500 target 12440

PAR 10:45 GMT April 6, 2017
RISK ON
Reply   
Draghi s promise of more free money stabilising the stock markets .

Draghi is there to protect the rich and the wealthy whatever it takes .

PAR 10:38 GMT April 6, 2017
USD
Reply   
Stay short EURUSD and long USDJPY .

In Europe an idiot has been running the ECB since 2011 with not a single positive result . He should be in jail for failing to supervise the creation of € billions of non performing Italian loans when he was governor of the bank of Italy .Those NPL's are now sitting forever on the balance sheet of the ECB . How can he ever shrink that balance sheet and ask Italy to send money to the ECB when those bonds expire?

As to Japan that country is bankrupt and the BOJ does nothing else than buying stocks and bonds .

Those central bankers are completely out of control but nobody can or will stop them .

douglas pjh 10:09 GMT April 6, 2017
support area
Reply   
Buy USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

Could be a support being made @ 110-11030 need a daily close above 11160 area to be happier Put a small trade in @ 11042 but looking to bail out soon with NFP coming

Israel Dil 10:02 GMT April 6, 2017
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

ib

just take a look into the high education sector in AU. the flow of students, their families and their money is guaranteed for some decades ahead. Australia is not the US real estate market.

GVI Forex Blog 09:58 GMT April 6, 2017
Amazing Trader EURUSD Ideas for 6 April 2017
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EUR symbol The central banks continue to be major players in the forex markets as evidenced in the last half day or so with the latest Fed minutes more hawkish than expected followed by a speech today by ECB President Draghi who was more dovish than most expected...

Amazing Trader EURUSD Ideas for 6 April 2017

Israel Dil 09:58 GMT April 6, 2017
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

ib

who are the owners?
what is their actual cash flow?
those "empty" properties, does their owner bought them with the intention to generate cash flow on monthly base/quarterly/yearly base?

story short, Australian RE market acted/acts as safe heaven for the owners. those who bought to live in the property will always need a property to live in. stick to the basics when it comes to RE

Paris ib 09:49 GMT April 6, 2017
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

Dil I doubt you really know what you are talking about when you discuss Australian property.

In Australia it is all credit and borrowing. There are a huge number of houses and flats standing empty. It is a speculative bubble. Immigration is not the big issue here at all.

The credit bubble

Israel Dil 09:44 GMT April 6, 2017
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

the Australian RE market talks are almost copy/paste of the Israeli RE market. there will be some non dramaric price correction to the downside but not a years long recession. just for the reason that the growth in both places is immigration based and both places are in demand. simply, there are not enough sellers at lower prices, that's the whole story, no core pressure to sell at lower prices. only wishes and those are not enough to change prices.

Paris ib 09:43 GMT April 6, 2017
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

I guess the comparison is Iceland.

Paris ib 09:41 GMT April 6, 2017
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

John the problem has been the expansion of credit since the banks started borrowing overseas. They get 40 percent of their funding overseas. That has allowed them to go on a lending splurge over the last 18 years. Household debt levels have exploded. Australia's foreign debt has exploded. And house prices have exploded as a result. The question is what now? And there are no easy answers.

"banking was becoming a global affair. Rather than just recycle domestic deposits to households, our financial institutions discovered the wonders of offshore wholesale funding markets. They borrowed huge amounts of cash offshore, brought it home, and lent it to us which is why we have a mountain of foreign debt"

Losing sleep

GVI Trading john bland 09:33 GMT April 6, 2017
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

problem is if the cause is foreign rather than domestic demand.

Paris ib 09:12 GMT April 6, 2017
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

I love the last paragraph:

"Given how reliant banks and other deposit-taking institutions are on the housing market for their earnings, one suspects this won’t be the last measure APRA, the RBA and, perhaps, the Federal Government have to take to try to cool the market without blowing up the system and economy in the process."

Talk about Understatement

Paris ib 09:11 GMT April 6, 2017
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

John I know. The thing is I have been reading about the doom and gloom which is supposedly coming in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets for more than a year. Things are delicately poised over in Australia at the moment.

"The RBA will... remain reluctant to lift rates decisively enough to puncture a housing market bubble, leaving it up to APRA to carry the responsibility and to try to protect the system and economy by effectively re-regulating the banks."

The risks

GVI Trading john bland 08:52 GMT April 6, 2017
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

Depressing real estate values without causing a major crash is very tricky if not impossible.

Sydney ACC 08:48 GMT April 6, 2017
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

Here's a good one for you

Sydney real estate ‘cheap’ and there’s no bubble, says global head of residential at Knight Frank

Sydney real estate is cheap and the Australian market is not experiencing a bubble, according to a senior executive at one of the world’s largest property consultancies.

Link

GVI Forex Blog 08:47 GMT April 6, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For Thursday 6 April 2017
Reply   

Trading Ideas for 6 Apr 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Forex Trading Outlook

Items likely to drive the FX rates:
  • EVENT RISK: Comments today by ECB Chief Draghi have upset the markets today after he took a surprisingly dovish tone. His comments on inflation and interest rates stand in contrast to the more hawkish (German) policy board members. Just yesterday, the latest FOMC minutes had a hawkish bias.

  • The first item in the U.S. monthly employment data is the ADP private employment estimate which is based on the payroll data it actually processes. It showed a stronger than expected gain of +263K in April (+189K expected). This compared to a revised +245K in February.

  • On Friday, the government releases its official jobs data. because of its detail, this is by far the most important U.S. economic report of the month. Street estimates are for a gain of 175K in the month vs. +235K in February. Odds are street estimates are too low. Recently traders have been focused more on average holy earnings, which have been flat at 0.20%/mo for as far back as the eye can see.

  • Lots to consider. Please comment...

    John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

    Forex Trading Ideas For Thursday 6 April 2017

Paris ib 08:45 GMT April 6, 2017
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

How he got away with the introduction of the GST is beyond me.

Paris ib 08:40 GMT April 6, 2017
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

Thanks for the clarification ACC. Ooops.....

So he was brought down by the GFC ??

Paris ib 08:38 GMT April 6, 2017
Risk-Off Posture In Equity Markets After Dovish Draghi Comments. USD Up Slightly

Why on earth would dovish comments by Draghi cause stock markets to take a risk off posture?

Stock markets are at risk but I think it might have more to do with the trouble that Trump is in over in the United States.

Reforms are stalled in the U.S.

Sydney ACC 08:37 GMT April 6, 2017
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

Legislation for GST was passed in 1999.

Howard lost an election in 2010, the third general election after the legislation was passed.

GVI Forex Blog 08:33 GMT April 6, 2017
Risk-Off Posture In Equity Markets After Dovish Draghi Comments. USD Up Slightly
Reply   

Far East equity markets closed mostly lower. Early in Europe, shares are opening mostly down. U.S. equity futures are lower. In forex, the USD is up slightly, while the EUR is down on its key crosses.

Table of Key Current Market Rates

Risk-Off Posture In Equity Markets After Dovish Draghi Comments. USD Up Slightly

Singapore 08:28 GMT April 6, 2017
GBP/USD Forecast
Reply   


The GBP/USD pair failed to sustain the break above 1.25 handle in Asia, now oscillating back and forth in a 15-pips narrow range in the upper bound of 1.24 handle, as we head towards the European opening bells.

Cable deflated from highs amid resurgent USD demand, as the greenback attempted a minor-correction versus its major peers after yesterday’s extensive sell-off, triggered by a lack of clarity on the Fed’s intention of trimming the balance sheet size sometime this year.

Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2481, down -0.02%, having posted a daily high at 1.2501 and low at 1.2474.

Forex Signals

Paris ib 08:23 GMT April 6, 2017
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market

Nothing like a little hyperbole to get you started in the morning.

They roll this guy out every time they want to introduce more tax penalties in Australia. They pushed through the GST with the help of 'experts' like these. Howard lost the next election as a result of the introduction of the GST against the electorate's wishes but that tax has stuck. And it's one of the most punitive value added tax regimes I have ever seen (compared with global norms) with no apparent minimum threshold and school fairs / girl guides selling cookies and the like having to apply for GST registration etc. Bit of nasty joke on Australians.

Meanwhile the cash hand out to home purchasers is NOT under threat. But there is dark talk about taxing capital gains on principal place of residence and such.....

AUD implications? Why bearish of course.

The 'plan' - such as it is seems to be to burst the property bubble (currently occurring in Sydney and Melbourne) using tax and capital requirements for banks. The economic boost is then expected to come via a massive foreign exchange adjustment. Good luck with that plan.

Let's all Panic

GVI Trading john bland 08:13 GMT April 6, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

EZ Retail PMI. Falls back to below contraction level. Second tier data..


Eurozone Retail PMI graph

GVI Trading john bland 08:10 GMT April 6, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

Retail PMI March 2017





ALERT
49.5 vs. n/a exp. vs. 49.9

Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland 08:09 GMT April 6, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

Earlier Draghi
-- risks to growth shifting upward
-- too soon to declare success
-- inflation outlook unchanged in important ways
-- reassessment of ECB policy unwarranted at this time
-- no reason to deviate from current guidance on rates

>>wire service

GVI Trading john bland 08:04 GMT April 6, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

EARLIER: Swiss CPI March, 2017 (y/y) 0.50%. Slight improvement, as expected.

GVI Trading john bland 07:53 GMT April 6, 2017
Thursday Trading Ideas

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GVI Trading 07:47 GMT April 6, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

45 mins ago--

ECB chief Draghi: Reiterates that monetary policy stance remains appropriate; need to see more inflation confidence before changing stance - Source TradeTheNews.com

PAR 07:30 GMT April 6, 2017
ECB DRAGHI=PONZI

Looks like Draghi wants more QE and a lower currency .

PAR 07:25 GMT April 6, 2017
ECB DRAGHI=PONZI

ECB policies have not been working , are not working and will never be working .

Just a transfer of wealth from savers to debtors .

PAR 07:22 GMT April 6, 2017
ECB DRAGHI=PONZI

ECB actually selling Euro 's and buying whatever European bond it can buy ?

PAR 07:20 GMT April 6, 2017
ECB DRAGHI=PONZI

Such a biased view of what is happening in the real world .

Time to impeach Draghi . He is , was and will always be a looser .

He created all those NPL s in Italy . He is a perpetual liar about economic facts and has created his own truth .

PAR 07:14 GMT April 6, 2017
ECB DRAGHI=PONZI
Reply   
Verbal intervention by capo di capi Draghi to weaken the Euro .

Italian NPL 's still a gigantic problem . ECB needs a bigger balance sheet

Draghi has been the worst central banker the world has ever seen .

A non elected bureaucrat taking only political decisions and manipulating of currency and interest rates .

Tallinn viies 07:08 GMT April 6, 2017
eurusd
Reply   
Draghi is speaking and euro is falling. as always.
need move below 1,0635. then small stop at 1,0600 and then real levels are coming 1,0525 and 1,0495. plan to cover near 1,0605 at first stage, then resell at 1,0635 and then new push down to 1,0525. stop and reverse now at 1,0695.

PAR 06:41 GMT April 6, 2017
Quality of US Figures ? Everything gets revised even hard data . Incredible.
Reply   
Seeking Alpha

"Lots of hoopla Wednesday about the "blowout" ADP employment report. Yes, it greatly exceeded expectations (+263K vs +185K), but lost in the shuffle was the fact that the prior month's number (+298K), which was a true blockbuster, was revised down to +245K. As the chart below shows, what we're left with is nothing out of the ordinary. The economy is still on a moderate growth path, but it is probably getting stronger bit by bit, thanks to a revival in the manufacturing sector."

Amman wfakhoury 05:37 GMT April 6, 2017
GBPUSD 12500

Amman wfakhoury 13:23 GMT 04/05/2017

Now scalp buy till 12500
________________________
12500 reached


The only one in the world who confirms the next level and every hour movement

haifa ac 04:34 GMT April 6, 2017
USA-Changing economy

Interesting thought.
If you are right-- maybe TINA (there is no alternative) is over and we can go back to a more normal market condition type of trading. Should be interesting.

haifa ac 04:10 GMT April 6, 2017
Wednesday Trading Ideas

"Mr. Trump said the images of death inside Syria in the aftermath of the chemical attacks �crosses many lines, beyond a red line, many many lines.� And he said that the death of �innocent children, innocent babies, little babies� has made him reassess the situation and Syria�s president, Bashar al-Assad.

�It�s very, very possible, and I will tell you it has already happened, that my attitude toward Syria and Assad, has changed very much"...

The only thing that will stop the over half a million syrians massacre of the last few years is---apply a Nicolae Ceaușescu on ASSAD!

nw kw 02:41 GMT April 6, 2017
Wednesday Trading Ideas

aud pump gbp and eur // gbpaud 4h resistance tossed , games begin?

Hong Kong 02:30 GMT April 6, 2017
AceTrader Apr 06: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views- USD/JPY
Reply   
06 Apr 2017 02:25GMT

USD/JPY - 110.54.. Dlr remains on the back foot in choppy Tokyo trading on Thursday after yesterday's roller-coaster ride, whipping both USD bears and bulls (in that order).

Despite finding renewed buying interest at 110.54 in Asia and climbed on renewed cross-selling in yen, price then rallied to 111.44 after key U.S. ADP private jobs report came in sharply higher than street forecast.
Dlr later climbed to session highs of 111.46 after release of Fed minutes but only to tumble to 110.57 on broad-based long USD liquidation.
Price remained under pressure in Australia and hit intra-day low of 110.29 in Asia.

Although traders cited yesterday's USD weakness post Fed minutes New York session as risk-off action ahead of summit meeting between U.S. President Trump and China's President Xi later today as well as profit taking ahead of Friday's U.S. jobs report, the safe-haven Swiss franc weakened against the euro.
Anyway, intra-day dlr weakness suggests market is now keen to re-test March's 4-month low at 110.11 and stops below 110.00 are now in focus.
Offers are tipped at 110.60/70 and more at 110.90/00 with some stops above there.

U.S. initial weekly jobless claims is the only data due out for today n S. Francisco Fed President Williams will be speaking later at 13:30GMT.

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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