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Forex Forum Archive for 04/30/2017

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dc CB 21:07 GMT April 30, 2017
Monday Trading Ideas

john bland 13:20 GMT April 30, 2017
Interesting how sentiment in U.S. 10-yr note has changed

Bond bears have never puked so much in such a short period of time as the $25 billion plus short-cover in 10Y Treasury bond futures in the last week.

the stunning swing in sentiment in the last 8 weeks (with almost $62 billion in 10Y Treasury shorts dumped) is shocking to see, smashing Speculative Positioning from its shortest ever to its longest in over 9 years...

aggregate Treasury futures complex has shifted to a net long speculative position for the first time since July 2016...


GVI Trading john bland 14:22 GMT April 30, 2017
Monday Trading Ideas

nh- makes sense. Any chance the Fed surprises the markets? Don't they live in mortal fear of another taper tantrum?

Livingston nh 13:35 GMT April 30, 2017
Monday Trading Ideas

John - this week's FOMC should take advantage of a quiet time to announce the elimination of Treasury replacement - there is obvious demand for Treasurys

My view remains that the FED's hoarding is contributing to the slower growth - additional rate hikes while this condition persists will flatten the yield curve and bring the 2/10 spread into historic recession danger level (the political axiom of EARLY recession better than LATE?)

GVI Trading john bland 13:20 GMT April 30, 2017
Monday Trading Ideas

Interesting how sentiment in U.S. 10-yr note has changed as markets reassess what Trump is going to be able to actually accomplish. It looks like they are now pricing in more slow growth to come. I had to double-check the COT 10-yr Treasury Note positions on Friday. This kind of a swing in net positioning is very unusual. Note the recent swing lower in the 10-yr yield (blue line). This explains the weaker USD tone. It all hangs together.

GVI Trading john bland 12:39 GMT April 30, 2017
Monday Trading Ideas

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GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--

EUR symbol The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy.
Odds for one 25bp rate hike as of the June 17, 2017 meeting are now 78% (78%).

EURUSD MACRO statistical Bias: HIGHER
Spot EURUSD: 1.0899

Pivot Point: 1.0901

20-day avg: 1.0715
50-day avg: 1.0694
200-day avg: 1.0834

GVI Forex Blog 11:01 GMT April 30, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For 1 May 2017

Trading Ideas for 1 May 2017

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Forex Trading Outlook

Items likely to drive FX rates:
  • EVENT RISK: Monday-- All Day (see calendar). European data are postponed one day due to May Day Holiday. Highlight: US ISM Mfg PMI @ 14:00 GMT seen weaker (56.5 vs 57.2) Important data.

  • EVENT RISK: Tuesday-- European and UK PMI's delayed due to holiday. Nice to watch on a comparative basis, but not as much of market-mover as U.S. ISM PMIs. UK data can move GBP.

  • This is a busy week for EVENT RISK data, especialLy from the U.S., to include ISM PMI data, a Fed meeting and April employment reports.

  • Please comment...

    John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founding Partner,

    Forex Trading Ideas For 1 May 2017

GVI Trading john bland 10:31 GMT April 30, 2017
ECB Disappoints The Markets As Yields In Fixed Income Markets Fall

John M. Bland, MBA

No Change In ECB Policy Bias Disappoints Markets

UPDATE: Early Friday saw a stronger than expected flash Eurozone HICP reading. In response, the EURUSD rallied.

ECB Disappoints The Markets As Yields In Fixed Income Markets Fall

GVI Trading john bland 01:06 GMT April 30, 2017

The less reliable China NBS PMI misses . It is still above the "50" boom or Bust line. The more reliable Caixin PMI is released on Tuesday.

China NBS PMI Chart

GVI Trading john bland 01:00 GMT April 30, 2017
China NBS PMI April 2017

China PMI's
NBS:51.2 vs. 51.6 exp vs. 51.8 prev.

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Minnesota 00:50 GMT April 30, 2017
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minnesota 00:50 GMT April 30, 2017
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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