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Forex Forum Archive for 09/21/2018

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Dillon AL 23:56 GMT September 21, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

something they should have done 2 years ago. All my posts both sides of The Forum have been about how The EU were not negotiating and now its out in the open. Whats crazy is the total silence. Silence comes from fear. The UK will not just be better off being outside the club but clearly the club feels stabbed in the back however they forget one thing ....The People requested this when they were asked the question....IE The peasants revolted. More fool The EU for around the corner there are a couple of former Eastern Bloc countries who may get fed up with Brussels and then there s always that thorny question..... Italy....They are right to be afraid but they are wrong to blame The UK

Mtl JP 23:33 GMT September 21, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Really...
U.K.’s Theresa May Says Brexit Negotiations Have Reached ‘an Impasse’ - wsj

The prime minister said it was now up to the European Union to provide an alternative Brexit deal

Mtl JP 22:38 GMT September 21, 2018
Trading the FED for profit

Mirror Mirror on the Wall
what does the TOP-est Fed watcher of them all
predict ?

Market Probability Tracker

GVI Trader john 20:55 GMT September 21, 2018
Commitment Of Traders Report For 18 September 2018
Reply   
For Amazing Traders monitoring levels on stops for trading strategies... COT report position highlights:
EURUSD positions gone
USDJPY longs incresing
GBPUSD shorts persist
USDCAD longs steady
AUDUSD shorts higher


EURUSD Commitment of Traders Chart

USDJPY Commitment of Traders Chart

GBPUSD Commitment of Traders Chart

USDCAD Commitment of Traders Chart

AUDUSD Commitment of Traders Chart

Livingston nh 20:50 GMT September 21, 2018
CABLE
Reply   
Currencies (FOREX) are a function of Governments - sometimes when you scratch a politician you find a bit of STEEL -- my view on Cable has not been guided by techs but on politics -- MAY has not shown the Steel but her political adversaries have failed as well

Context - EU has more problems than Britain -- Brexit keeps Britain away from the BLOWUP - don't bet the bigger horse

GVI Forex Blog 20:33 GMT September 21, 2018
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 21 September 2018
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 21 September 2018

Livingston nh 20:13 GMT September 21, 2018
Trading the FED for profit

CB - you're right because nobody understands an unprecedented condition - Bernanke screwed the pooch w/ his purchase of Treasurys - he caused the hoarding (an economic phenomenn that RESULTS from lower/nega rates), killed the multiplier effect and created the deflation he feared (n.b., they still don't get it as they bemoan the absence of productivity (deflationary) as they strive for MORE inflation)


dc CB 19:31 GMT September 21, 2018
Trading the FED for profit

I keep postiing about QT and never get a reaction here. I guess you all think it's not impt.
QT - Quantitative Tightening
Well from now until the end of this year Dec 31...the Fed Is NOT rolling over $118Billion in notes and bonds, As they Mature.
(click on the Notes and Bond tab)

SOMA NYFED

Livingston nh 19:15 GMT September 21, 2018
Trading the FED for profit

ALWAYS been that way - again my opinion the Fed is dehoarding which is PRICE stimulative (I can't think of a monetary precedent - fiscally think the elimination of wage/price control and/or rationing) so the Fed is chasing its own shadow


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:09 GMT September 21, 2018
Trading the FED for profit

nh, it is hard to decipher exactly what you are saying but if I read it right, you are saying the Fed will eventually kill the goose. Am I reading you correctly?

Livingston nh 19:04 GMT September 21, 2018
Trading the FED for profit

NO - new highs vs new lows "should" confirm new high value (mathematically not required) - Nasdaq leads coming out of Bear Markets while Dow lags, Nasdaq folds first while DOW hangs on // we aren't in BEAR territory but the Fed is not near stopping -- but every Bear Market starts from NEW highs

The election is seen by the fanatical wings of both parties as a DEATH match so the markets will blame the election rhetoric (or the budget or the alignment of Jupiter) -- RATES RATES RATES focus on what they do not what they say


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:03 GMT September 21, 2018
How Stops Drive the Forex Market
Reply   


Stops are the key to forex trading and understanding what I am going to tell you can make the difference between success or failure. Scroll below to get your free report.


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dc CB 19:02 GMT September 21, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

But the New Yawk Times now sez it happened --- "so it mus' be da trooot"



Mr. Rosenstein made the remarks about secretly recording Mr. Trump and about the 25th Amendment in meetings and conversations with other Justice Department and F.B.I. officials. Several people described the episodes, insisting on anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. The people were briefed either on the events themselves or on memos written by F.B.I. officials, including Andrew G. McCabe, then the acting bureau director, that documented Mr. Rosenstein’s actions and comments.

None of Mr. Rosenstein’s proposals apparently came to fruition. It is not clear how determined he was about seeing them through, though he did tell Mr. McCabe that he might be able to persuade Attorney General Jeff Sessions and John F. Kelly, then the secretary of homeland security and now the White House chief of staff, to mount an effort to invoke the 25th Amendment.

Mr. Rosenstein then raised the idea of wearing a recording device or "wire," as he put it, to secretly tape the president when he visited the White House. One participant asked whether Mr. Rosenstein was serious, and he replied animatedly that he was.

dc CB 18:57 GMT September 21, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

yup, anyone calling what has been going on for the last two years "an attempt at a soft coup" is obviously bonkers, crazy, looney tunes and a Conspiracy Wacko, spreadin FAKE NEWS.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:51 GMT September 21, 2018
Trading the FED for profit

nh, you posted a few times that loser outweighed winners while indicies were marching to new record highs. has your view changed?

Second question is whether markets will shift their focus to the midterms and potential gridlock or more.

Livingston nh 18:43 GMT September 21, 2018
Trading the FED for profit

"Last easy decision" won't be seen for a while imo // last year this time was the Financial Conditions Index (Dudley fav) - now the rising unseeable STARS /// Powell seems more grounded in his opinions than relying on a MODEL or Theory -- more a Facts on the Ground type -- they can believe in PCE Core but CPI is embedded in the economy

GVI 18:06 GMT September 21, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Deputy AG Rosenstein reportedly suggested that he secretly recorded Pres Trump to expose chaos in administration; discussed seeking to recruit cabinet members to invoke 25th Amendment to remove Trump from office - NY Times - Rosenstein reportedly talked to other officials about wearing a wire to record the President and discussed invoking the 25th Amendment to remove Trump in the days after Comey was fired in May 2017- He also reportedly said that Rosenstein thought he was being used by Trump in Trump's reasoning to fire former FBI head Jim Comey

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Mtl JP 17:45 GMT September 21, 2018
Trading the FED for profit
Reply   
"The economy is strong. Inflation is near our 2 percent objective and most people who want a job are finding one. We are setting policy to do what monetary policy can do to support continued growth, a strong labor market and inflation near 2 percent." Jerome in August.

Apparently something - woooo ... Record High Equities ..... are on fire. apes Greg Robb a senior reporter for MarketWatch Joe Lavorgna, chief economist for Natixis CIB Americas.

With its last easy decision, Fed will try to avoid adding fuel to the fire

Fed widely seen hiking rates to a range between 2% and 2.25%

GVI Trader john 17:14 GMT September 21, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Baker Hughes Rig Count


NEWS ALERT
U.S.
Total: 1052 vs. 1055 (-3) prev.
Oil: 866 vs. 867 (-1) prev.
Canada: 197 vs. 226 (-29)


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:59 GMT September 21, 2018
Free Report: How Stops Drive the Forex Market
Reply   


Stops are the key to forex trading and understanding what I am going to tell you can make the difference between success or failure. Scroll below to get your free report.


Fill out this short form and then check your email for your free report.

Name:

Email:

GVI 16:51 GMT September 21, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Senior White House Official: we're still optimistic that US can reach a trade deal with Canada but it's up to Canada - We're sticking to our guns on dairy in the NAFTA talks- Hopeful Canada deal can be reached by Sept 30th- There's reason to believe US lawmakers would support a Mexico-only deal - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 14:13 GMT September 21, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Flash Market PMIs Mixed To Weaker in September 2018
Reply   
U.S. flash Markit Mfg & Service PMI. September 2018 data miss vs. estimates. These remain second-tier releases. Final data come out at the start of the new month.
U.S. flash Markit Manufacturing PMI

U.S. flash Markit Service PMI

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Flash Market PMIs Mixed To Weaker in September 2018

GVI Trader john 13:45 GMT September 21, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. flash Markit Mfg & SVC PMI September 2018





ALERT
mfg: 55.6 vs. 55.0 exp. vs. 54.7 prev.
svc: 52.9 vs. 54.6 exp. vs. 54.8 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex 13:39 GMT September 21, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

USDCAD pops on this

09:38 (US) White House Chief Economist Hassett: we're very, very close to having to go forward on a trade deal with Mexico and not Canada - TV interview

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI 13:04 GMT September 21, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

PM May: we've always said Brexit talks would be tough; toughest moment will be the final strait; both sides still want a deal - Brexit negotiations statement **Reminder earlier in session we saw conflicting reports on whether or not PM May would make a statement. The Times tweeted she had 3 options (suspend negotiations, ramp up 'no deal' planning, ramp up linguistically without substance ). Shortly afterwards the BBC reported PM May will not change tack on Brexit - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI 13:04 GMT September 21, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

PM May: we've always said Brexit talks would be tough; toughest moment will be the final strait; both sides still want a deal - Brexit negotiations statement **Reminder earlier in session we saw conflicting reports on whether or not PM May would make a statement. The Times tweeted she had 3 options (suspend negotiations, ramp up 'no deal' planning, ramp up linguistically without substance ). Shortly afterwards the BBC reported PM May will not change tack on Brexit - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader john 13:03 GMT September 21, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

UK blaming PM May delay on "Technical Difficulties". If you believe that...

GVI Forex Blog 12:48 GMT September 21, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: Canada CPI Stronger As Expected in August 2018
Reply   

CPI in line with expectations.

Canada: Retail Sales in line to stronger vs. expectations

BREAKING NEWS: Canada CPI Stronger As Expected in August 2018

GVI Trader john 12:41 GMT September 21, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

PM May announcement due in 5mins delayed. >> TTN.com

GVI Trader john 12:33 GMT September 21, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Canada: CPI (August) Retail Sales (July) 2018





NEWS ALERT
Headline CPI
mm: -0.10% vs. -0.10% exp. vs. +0.50% prev.
yy: 2.80% vs. +2.80% exp. vs. +3.00% prev.


Retail Sales
Headline: +0.30% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. -0.20% prev.
X-Autos: +0.90% vs. 0.60% exp. vs. -0.10% prev.




TTN: Live News Special Offer

Livingston nh 12:23 GMT September 21, 2018
Brexit

After yesterday PM May needs to put the fear of god back into the Barnier/Juncker folks -- from Guardian article "However, Crabb went on to say that the way in which EU leaders had sought to “belittle” May in Salzburg had taken many in the Conservative party by surprise and had pushed people like him to a position where they felt “the quicker we’re out of this circus, the better”



GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:19 GMT September 21, 2018
Amazing Trader Update

EURGBP .8940:

4 hour AT trendline and resistance both currently around .8958. This is now the key area. See your AT charts.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:59 GMT September 21, 2018
Brexit
Reply   
There is chatter that PM May may make a statement. Only chatter so far.

Livingston nh 11:04 GMT September 21, 2018
Usdcad

Shrinking core position as it dropps thru DMAs - the wkly has broken down // trying to decide if CAD goes into a ranging trade w/ current level low (need to see MACD turn)

Upside trgt above 1.31 - accumulate if moves back thru MAs // positive bias on rate hike pace

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:59 GMT September 21, 2018
Amazing Trader Update
Reply   


Here is an AT 15 min EURUSD chart showing the episode changing from buy to sell. IMHO identifying the episode is more than half the battle to successful trading

The Amazing Trader

jkt abel 10:50 GMT September 21, 2018
Usdcad

guys, data coming, anyone trading this loonie?


Jkt Abel 02:07 GMT 09/21/2018
Short 12909, stop 12947, target 12850 and lower

Kl Fs 10:36 GMT September 21, 2018
sell usd

Shawn, 11740 should hold on first try

Livingston nh 10:32 GMT September 21, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 21 September 2018

PM May office on Chequers slapdown -- "just a flesh wound" - we know how this ends

kl shawn 10:30 GMT September 21, 2018
sell usd
Reply   
upon breaking of 11770, trying long euro as close as possible to 11720, with stop 11669 will do, target 100-200 pips

london red 10:05 GMT September 21, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 21 September 2018

eurgbp following on from yest hammer and strength here means euro outperfroms pound vs the dollar but both can fall while eurgbp climbs, just euro falls less than the pound. fed should start to take an effect as well as recent brexit impasse (which affects eu to a less extent than uk, but still does affect). stop for short euro 11856 should be safe this side of fed meet but serves to protect in unlikely event of a deal.

GVI 08:55 GMT September 21, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 21 September 2018

PM May reportedly NOT making a statement (refuting earlier reports) - BBC tweet - Chatter this morning about some kind of big statement from the PM - No 10 sources say this is NOT happening - getting on plane, who knows what will have happened by time we land....


- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 08:52 GMT September 21, 2018
Common Sense Trading: Episodes
Reply   


Contact me for details

The Amazing Trader

GVI 08:48 GMT September 21, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

PM May’s team are exploring ways to insert the “consent principle” into the EU’s proposed Northern Ireland backstop - Politico article - The move is part of a two-pronged diplomatic assault to heavily modify the backstop — which both sides agreed to in principle last December — so that May can sell it to her own party and to the Democratic Unionist MPs whose votes prop up her government. - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader john 08:39 GMT September 21, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 21 September 2018


For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:


POSITIVE

Spot EURUSD: 1.1787
Pivot Point: 1.1740

This Week: 1.1618-1.1803
Fri: 1.1769-1.1803
Thu: 1.1669-1.1777
Wed: 1.1650-1.1715
Tue: 1.1652-1.1724

20-day avg: 1.1645
50-day avg: 1.1607
100-day avg: 1.1668
200-day avg: 1.1950

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Sep 26: 100% (100%), and for Dec 19 (second 25bp hike): 74% (74%).

10-yr Bonds
US: 3.074% 0.0bp
DE: 0.466% -1.8bp
GB: 1.581% -1.8bp
JP: 0.130% +0.9bp

DAX: +118
Implied Open
DJ: +115
SP: +8.6




See the Amazing Trader Live!

GVI Forex Blog 08:11 GMT September 21, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: EZ Flash PMIs Mixed in August 2018
Reply   



 EZ flash PMI data chart EZ flash September 2018 PMIs Manufacturing PMIs weak. Flash August Services PMIs Mixed. Final PMIs are released at the start of each new month.

BREAKING NEWS: EZ Flash PMIs Mixed in August 2018

GVI Trader john 08:03 GMT September 21, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Mixed PMIs Mfg readings weak. Services mixed.

GVI Trader john 08:02 GMT September 21, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

BREAKING NEWS: EZ Flash PMIs September 2018




ALERT
EZ
mfg: 53.3 vs. 54.5 exp. vs. 54.6 prev.
svc: 54.7 vs. 54.4 exp. vs. 54.4 prev.

German
mfg: 53.7 vs. 55.7 exp. vs. 55.9 prev.
svc: 56.5 vs. 55.0 exp. vs. 55.0 prev.

France
mfg: 52.5 vs. 53.3 exp. vs. 53.5 prev.
svc: 54.3 vs. 55.4 exp. vs. 55.4 prev.


Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex 07:57 GMT September 21, 2018
Brexit
Reply   
03:40 (UK) UK senior minister reportedly suggests PM May will have to rewrite her chequers Brexit plan - FT

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 07:38 GMT September 21, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 21 September 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Fri 21 Sep 2018
AFlash PMIs
AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales


GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium



Mon 24 Sep 2018
All Day- JP Holiday
A 0:00 DE- IFO Survey
Tue 25 Sep 2018
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
Wed 26 Sep 2018
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Fed Policy Decision
Thu 27 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods/Trade
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 28 Sep 2018
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 07:55 DE- Jobless
AA 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 09:00 EZ- flash HICP
A 12:30 US- PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Friday Trading Checklist For 21 September 2018

kl shawn 07:28 GMT September 21, 2018
Gnp

just the usual friday profit taking from weak hands

SINGAPORE SC 07:25 GMT September 21, 2018
Gnp
Reply   
Is there Brexit news?

bali sja 06:26 GMT September 21, 2018
usdtry
Reply   
no more news from Turkey? just like NK, all soap opera and in the end clownish peace talk with Trump

Jkt Abel 02:07 GMT September 21, 2018
Usdcad
Reply   
Short 12909, stop 12947, target 12850 and lower

GVI Jay 00:58 GMT September 21, 2018
Common Sense Trading in 3 Steps

GCM so good to see you again

Gold Coast Martin 00:41 GMT September 21, 2018
Common Sense Trading in 3 Steps

Very wise words Jay. If traders follow what makes common sense consistently, their wins will be well ahead than their loses.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 22 Apr 2019
AA Various- Easter Monday Holiday
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 23 Apr 2019
A 1:30 AU- CPI
Wed 24 Apr 2019
A 11:00 DE- IFO Survey
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 16:00 EZ- EIA Crude
Wed 24 Apr 2019
A 11:00 DE- IFO Survey
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 16:00 EZ- EIA Crude
Thu 25 Apr 2019
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
Fri 26 Apr 2019
A 12:30 US- GDP
A 15:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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