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Forex Forum Archive for 09/26/2018

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Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


GVI Jay 21:57 GMT September 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Trump threatens car tariffs on Canada

GVI 21:46 GMT September 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Prime Min May reportedly losing support for a no-deal Brexit if EU discussions over Chequers proposals fail - UK press - Source TradeTheNews.com

Dillon AL 21:36 GMT September 26, 2018
Winners and Losers

Why is it that adverts on my TV screen are not considered political interference. They certainly are trying to persuade a point of view and most importantly influence an outcome. ...???

GVI Trader john 21:02 GMT September 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Reserve Bank of New Zealand September 26, 2018





NEWS ALERT

Rates held steady at 1.75%.


RELEASE: Reserve Bank of New Zealand


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trader john 20:47 GMT September 26, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 26 September 2018

DJ -107
10s 3.05%
EURUSD 1.1744

GVI Trader john 20:41 GMT September 26, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 26 September 2018


For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:


POSITIVE

Spot EURUSD: 1.1762
Pivot Point: 1.1737

This Week: 1.1724-1.1815
Wed: 1.1726-1.1798
Tue: 1.1731-1.1793
Mon: 1.1724-1.1815
Fri: 1.1733-1.1803

20-day avg: 1.1662
50-day avg: 1.1614
100-day avg: 1.1661
200-day avg: 1.1948

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Dec 19 (second 25bp hike): 76% (74%).

Mtl JP 20:07 GMT September 26, 2018
Winners and Losers

Winners and Losers
---------------------
a while ago:
China is actually placing propaganda ads in the Des Moines Register and other papers, made to look like news. Thatís because we are beating them on Trade, opening markets, and the farmers will make a fortune when this is over! - President Trump

Trump Today: President accuses China of attempting to interfere in U.S. midterm elections

Mtl JP 19:44 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

while u figure things out
post jerome eurdlr action:
tested 1.18 and failed to breach it
crapped to a low of 1.1730
to currently settle around 1,1750

Bottom Line
jerome succeeded causing only minor damage to some and small gains to others in the last hour or so.

The other Bottom Line
No new trend has been set off.
Protecting against Euro's weakness costing less.

Mtl JP 19:31 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

but jerome is just a former lawyer
what is the relevance ?
to trading ?

Bali Sja 19:28 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

You dont argue with a lawyer

GVI Forex Blog 19:27 GMT September 26, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 26 September 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium



Thu 27 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods/Trade
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 28 Sep 2018
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 07:55 DE- Jobless
AA 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 09:00 EZ- flash HICP
A 12:30 US- PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium



Mon 1 Oct 2018
All Day- Final Mfg PMIs
A 01:30 AU- CPI
Tue 2 Oct 2018
A 14:00 AU- RBA Decision
Wed 3 Oct 2018
All Day- Final SVC PMIs
b>A 12:15 US- ADP Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
Thu 4 Oct 2018
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US= Factory Orders
Fri 5 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 CA/US- Employment
A 12:30 CA/US- Trade


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Thursday Trading Checklist 26 September 2018

Mtl JP 19:27 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

I believe jerome is a former lawyer.

Think I hear him say that absence of "accommodative" does not a signal a policy change.

how should , pray tell , he be defining "accomodative" when it is no longer in the gang's statement ?

GVI Forex Blog 19:23 GMT September 26, 2018
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 26 September 2018
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 26 September 2018

PAR 19:14 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

As a lawyer Powell has problems defining the word accommodative .

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:09 GMT September 26, 2018
Look at this chart
Reply   


As I have said AT always you levels to trade no matter what the market conditions, Our original motto was AT makes order out of chaos. It still holds true today.

Take a look at this chart and then decide for yourselves.

The Amazing Trader

Mtl JP 18:57 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

what a relief it is to listen to jerome not so much on substance but just on style compared to that unbearably boring tone of voice and loquence of his miserably uncomfortable predecessor janet

GVI 18:57 GMT September 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Fed Chair Powell: our economy is strong, inflation is stable - FOMC press conf - Not everything is perfect, not all Americans are benefiting from the strong economy- Overall growth outlook remains favorable; overall financial conditions remain accommodative; fiscal policy is boosting the economy- Expect the job market to remain strong; participation rate is good, about even with 2013 level despite demographic pressures- Expect inflation to remain near 2% target on a sustained basis- If the economy falters, we can lower rates- Dropping accommodative language does not signal a change in rate path

- Source TradeTheNews.com

PAR 18:54 GMT September 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

US real interest rates stay close to ZERO.

GVI Trader john 18:52 GMT September 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

EURUSD following bonds 10s 2.078%.

GVI Trader john 18:43 GMT September 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

10s 3.091%

GVI Trader john 18:41 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

September 26, 2018

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Household spending and business fixed investment have grown strongly. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; John C. Williams, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.

Implementation Note issued September 26, 2018

Last Update: September 26, 2018

Bali Sja 18:18 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

It is all about keeping the stox bid

GVI Trader john 18:16 GMT September 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

10's 3.082%

GVI Trader john 18:12 GMT September 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

10s 3.074% vs 3.083% pre-announcement.

PAR 18:07 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

Sell VIX .

PAR 18:06 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

Stop hunting.

PAR 18:05 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

Powell is a great lawyer .

GVI Trader john 18:04 GMT September 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Fed Policy Decision September 26, 2018



NEWS ALERT
Fed Funds Target Range increased by 25bp to 2.00% to 2.25%

RELEASE: Policy Statement


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Bali Sja 17:55 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

Watch usdjpy and loonie, thats the clue

Bali Sja 17:54 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

Usd will rally big time

Mtl JP 17:49 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

DLRX 03.73
EURDLR 1.1764

Statement at 2pm
jerome yaks at 2:30pm
-------------------------
IF jerome comes out perceived less hawk than is currently priced in
DLR will sell off

Chicago AGA 17:48 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

... and if it goes up first. Sell above 1.18?

GVI 17:40 GMT September 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Text of Mexico-US trade deal reportedly to be released tomorrow; will be written to allow Canada to join later - press - Source TradeTheNews.com

london red 17:35 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

my 2 cents euro down then up. yes hike but poss fed less hawkish than mkt expects.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:23 GMT September 26, 2018
Trade to Win with the Amazing Trader



As I have been saying, If I showed you how to identify the key levels in advance that were likely to trade would you be able to use that information to make money trading?

Here is yet another example how AT levels act as magnets (see charts). Look at the chart, this is no coincidence.

The Amazing Trader

PAR 17:13 GMT September 26, 2018
RISK ON
Reply   
Trump instructed Powell to come with stock market positive comments or..

dc CB 16:38 GMT September 26, 2018
Iran has three options

they surely miss the O sending them pallets of untraceable cash Euros.

haifa ac 16:31 GMT September 26, 2018
Iran has three options

The Iranians consider themselves ultimate merchants/traders.
they met their match in Trump.
he is going to squeeze them by their balls until their heart and mind will follow.
then have just become the Penultimate traders.

PAR 16:10 GMT September 26, 2018
US dollar
Reply   
US dollar losing its reserve currency status . The only way is down , whatever fed rate hikes and "MADAME SOLEIL" fed comments .

The FED has no clue .

Mtl JP 16:04 GMT September 26, 2018
Iran has three options

lets block hormuz
see crude to 150 - 250 ++
on top of jerome's rate hikes
and trump's near trillion dollar deficit

haifa ac 15:34 GMT September 26, 2018
Iran has three options
Reply   
The situation in IRAN is terrible
Last few days the real value of the Rial went from 145,000 rial per dollar to 180,000. Forget the official rate of 41,000--it is a hoax.
that is 24% devaluation in 4 days.
Why?
India, Japan and S. Korea stopped importing Iranian oil
Volvo and Volxwagen stopped doing business with Iran
Europe is getting cold feet (transferred 20 mil--a joke)

Iran now faces 3 options:
1. Miracle will happen and China, Russian and Turkey will save her--doubtful since all three are not doing so well
2. They will surrender and give in to Trump. Considering the Iranian EGO--that is unlikely
3.Iran will collapse--complete CHAOS which will make things in the middle east--rather hot. But in 2-3 years the Ayatollas will be deposed--and then who knows.

May you live in interesting times

GVI Forex Blog 14:08 GMT September 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. New Homes Sales Miss After Revisions in August 2018
Reply   
August 2018 New Homes Sales. Data in line. Previous data revised lower.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. New Homes Sales Miss After Revisions in August 2018

GVI Trader john 14:00 GMT September 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. New Home Sales August, 2018



ALERT
629 vs. 630K exp. vs. 627K (r 608K) prev.


New Residential Sales


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 13:40 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

after jerome & gang macro will prefer trading DLR with bias: down
possible exception: usdyen

Mtl JP 13:40 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

after jerome & gang macro will prefer trading DLR with bias: down
possible exception: usdyen

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:32 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

Feel free to add your trading scenarios for after the Fed meeting.

Mtl JP 12:30 GMT September 26, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 26 September 2018

Expecting NY session to be ditz here ditz there for 10-20pip sniper artists ahead of jerome and his gang's rates decision.

Qtn for after the gang's announcement is IF it will set off a trend into 2019

It is my personal view that whatever rate hikes progression may be announced will have nothing to do with some alleged good economic news in the US and everything to do with the gang trying to give itself a tool (loftier interest rate than current) from which to "fight" the next economic downturn before it happens.

Dubai MA 12:03 GMT September 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Any on other Brexit news out? gbp is bid!!!!

Mtl JP 11:57 GMT September 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

EU's concern over uncertainty in UK over Brexit Deal should mean advantage UK.

Lets see if teresa drops the ball or crushes it

GVI Forex 11:14 GMT September 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

07:02 (UK) EU concerned over uncertainty in UK over Brexit Deal; wants no-deal plans to intensify in months ahead - Doc

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI 10:59 GMT September 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

EU Brexit Negotiator Barnier: Working on an orderly and a new partnership that s respects the UK's sovereignty - Source TradeTheNews.com

Cape May jb 10:52 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

Fed has become very transparent on policy. I don't know of this is going to last much longer. A +25bp hike today is a sure bet and a December hike is highly probable. From there on, it really doesn't matter today. Lots of chatter they will drop the word "accomodative" as they move away from providing forward guidence. On that we will see.

Markets always react to the Fed decision, not always because its a surprise, but often just because they can. A big focus now is ECB policy. This has been a source of EURUSD demand as German bond yields have started to move higher. That could be the next focus once the Fed decision is out of the way.

GVI Trader john 10:04 GMT September 26, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 26 September 2018

For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:


POSITIVE

Spot EURUSD: 1.1766
Pivot Point: 1.1764

This Week: 1.1724-1.1815
Wed: 1.1764-1.1776
Tue: 1.1731-1.1793
Mon: 1.1724-1.1815
Fri: 1.1733-1.1803

20-day avg: 1.1659
50-day avg: 1.1612
100-day avg: 1.1662
200-day avg: 1.1949

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Sep 26: 100% (100%), and for Dec 19 (second 25bp hike): 74% (68%).

10-yr Bonds
US: 3.087% -1.9bp
DE: 0.536% +0.50
GB: 1.608% -2.9
JP: 0.126% -0.3

DAX: -16
Implied Open
DJ: +47
SP: +5.7




See the Amazing Trader Live!

singapore td 10:03 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

still 11680-11730 buying zone, i'll let you figure out your own risk tolerance

UK FX 09:48 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

td, any suggested levels?

UK FX 09:48 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

td, any suggested levels?

singapore td 09:43 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

yes, and therefore you sell usd on blips

GVI Forex Blog 09:42 GMT September 26, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 26 September 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium



Wed 26 Sep 2018
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Fed Policy Decision
Thu 27 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods/Trade
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 28 Sep 2018
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 07:55 DE- Jobless
AA 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 09:00 EZ- flash HICP
A 12:30 US- PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Wednesday Trading Checklist 26 September 2018

UK FX 09:36 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

Price action before the announcement will give a clue to how traders are positioned. usd should be higher but it isn't.

bali sja 09:10 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

bad idea for 20 pips stop either side, knee jerk reaction will take those timid stops even if you are right

hk pw 09:04 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

how about buy 1,17 sell 1,18 stops 20 pips either side?

UK JY 08:53 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

Barring a surprise it is the first move that counts. EURUSD is the anti dollar so will set the tone. If first move is down expect a bounce and run towards 1.18 again, If first move is up, then harder to make the call.

Risk is everyone sees it the same way.

Anyone see it different?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 08:43 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios

Posted overnight on the GVI/Amazing Trader Forum

FED
Dillon AL 02:54 GMT 09/26/2018 - My Profile
Assuming that the prognosticators are correct, and the Fed hikes short-term rates by 1/4% when they finish their 2 day meeting tomorrow. What questions does that leave us with?
Will the Fed hint about whether there will be a 4th rate increase next year? and what kind of surprise could the Fed have in store?

Surprises could consist of the Fed not hiking rates or moving rates by 1/2% instead.
There is no way to predict how the markets would react to either surprise and these hypotheticals are not likely if you believe most analysts.
How would the markets react to the expected increase?
Typically long-term rates moving up several days or a few weeks before the meeting. That has already happened. Then rates move down a bit right after the announcement. Markets often move in anticipation of an event.....Reality vs Perception....

Where do we go from here?
There's no indication that the Fed feels that we are close to a neutral range with regard to short-term rates.
The economic news from now through the end of the year will give the Fed enough clues as to whether to act again or hold off.
Next week we have another jobs report and that data will be an important factor the Fed considers.
Most areas of the economy continue to be moderately strong

FX impact likely more of the same anti-Usd after an initial pro-Usd knee jerk
The question that should be asked is where are ma & pa s break even in terms of mortgage rates. Once that is known then we can predict the housing market rolling over due to a full valuation and that in turn producing a peak in Fed rates
Reply

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 08:24 GMT September 26, 2018
Fed Scenarios
Reply   
As you can tell by the quiet in the market and here as well. especially after more choppy trading yesterday, many are sitting on their hands waiting for the Fed,

It is hopefully the quiet before the next storm so let's take the time during this lull to post some scenarios for the Fed.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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