Forex Forum Archive for 10/1/2018

HK [email protected] 23:07 GMT October 1, 2018
Will EURUSD 1.15 trade this week?

.
1.1525/35 WILL LIKELY BE REACHED.
1.1505/1.1510 NEEDS A STRONG MOMENTUM TO PENETRATE.

Mtl JP 20:40 GMT October 1, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 2 October 2018

I can understand that RBA's rate announcement later could have a AA risk rating (in case it hikes / cuts vs flat expectation for example) BUT
how does china's holiday gets an A risk rating ?

GVI Trader john 20:23 GMT October 1, 2018
Will EURUSD 1.15 trade this week?

Late Monday
DJ +193
10-yr 3.086%

EURUSD 1.1577
GBPUSD 1.3038
USDJPY 113..98
USDCAD 1.2808

GVI Trader john 20:14 GMT October 1, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 2 October 2018

For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!

GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:


POSITIVE-NEUTRAL

Spot EURUSD: 1.1574
Pivot Point: 1.1587

This Week: 1.1564-1.1623
Mon: 1.1564-1.1623

Fri: 1.1570-1.1661
Thu: 1.1642-1.1757
Wed: 1.1726-1.1798
Tue: 1.1731-1.1793

20-day avg: 1.1659
50-day avg: 1.1609
100-day avg: 1.1652
200-day avg: 1.1944

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Fed 25bp hike odds for Dec 19: 72% (72%).

Cape May jb 19:17 GMT October 1, 2018
Will EURUSD 1.15 trade this week?

Great question. A great question in my mind is one that is very hard to answer. I have been wondering all day about how much higher the USD can go. I think it could depend on the relative strength of U.S. labor data at the end of the week and whether selective central banks continue to diversify their forex reserves out of the USD. The USD looks good on paper, but it has a strong tendency to disappoint.

Any other ideas?

GVI Forex Blog 19:09 GMT October 1, 2018
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 1 October 2018
Reply   

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 1 October 2018

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:51 GMT October 1, 2018
Will EURUSD 1.15 trade this week?
Reply   
Please post your trading opinion and any other comments.

GVI Forex Blog 17:35 GMT October 1, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 2 October 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 2 Oct 2018
A 14:00 AU- RBA Decision
Wed 3 Oct 2018
All Day- Final SVC PMIs
b>A 12:15 US- ADP Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
Thu 4 Oct 2018
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US= Factory Orders
Fri 5 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 CA/US- Employment
A 12:30 CA/US- Trade

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

---

Tuesday Trading Checklist 2 October 2018

GVI Forex Blog 16:21 GMT October 1, 2018
Equities Mixed. 10-yr Yields Up. FX: EUR Down And USD Mixed
Reply   

Equities Mixed. 10-yr Yields Up. FX: EUR Down And USD Mixed

Mtl JP 16:17 GMT October 1, 2018
Winners and Losers



Winners and Losers
---------------------
I am posting this only as evidence that
a phenomenon that I have never seen been before
than an opening GAP can be closed by another GAP

Mtl JP 16:02 GMT October 1, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 1 October 2018



GBP 1.3030 and Amazing Trader
thing of beauty on a slow day

egypt trftfvj 16:02 GMT October 1, 2018
GUIDELINES of Pennants forex trading strategy
Reply   
GUIDELINES of Pennants forex trading strategy

A pennant is a short triangular shaped chart pattern. It can act as a trend reversal or continuation pattern.
Appearance short triangle bounded by two converging trend lines
These patterns are usually preceded by a sharp advance or decline with heavy volume, and mark a midpoint of the move
Price bounded by two trend lines
Surrounding the price action converge, trend lines forming a small pennant shape. Price usually goes against the trend: It rises in a downtrend and falls in an uptrend.
Three-week maximum
Pennants are short patterns lasting from a few days to 3 weeks. Patterns longer than 3 weeks are symmetrical triangles or wedge
Steep, quick price trend
Look for a quick (steep) price move (up or down) leading to the pattern.
Downward volume trend
Volume usually trends downward throughout the pattern
Measure rule
Calculate the price difference between the start of the trend and the
pennant. Prices should move at slightly less than this amount above
(for uptrends) or below (for downtrends) the end of the pennant.
Wait for breakout
Take a position forex trading signals once price closes outside the pennant boundary.
Close out trade
Close out the trade when price stalls, usually as it approaches the measure rule target or a support/resistance zone
Price trends pennants always rest upon a flagpole, so look for a strong price run leading to them.
Two converging trendlines
For pennants, price follows two converging trendlines.
Volume in the pattern recedes.
Breakout Can be in any direction.
Duration pennants are shorter than three weeks
A pennant appears atop a flagpole. For easy identification,
look for the flagpole first—a strong straight-line price run.
How often price touches the trendline borders is not important for pennants
pennant can slope in any direction, but most often, it will lean against the prevailing price trend.
If the chart pattern does not have a flagpole, then it is not a flag or a pennant.
.

GVI 15:22 GMT October 1, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Brexit Min Raab: UK has indicated we would look at checks on regulatory side; goal remains for borderless Irish Sea - Irish backstop must have an end point; there shouldn't be a need for a backstop- EU's Barnier has started talking about technological solutions on Ireland; UK bringing up technology is powerful evidence base for the plans we've put forward

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:58 GMT October 1, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 1 October 2018

Key level in EURUSD is the AT support at 1.1565, which I have been citing since last week, so far untested.

The Amazing Trader

Mtl JP 14:45 GMT October 1, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 1 October 2018

euro testing lalla zone's bottom at 75

GVI Trader john 14:43 GMT October 1, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. September 2018 Mfg PMI Misses Slightly

In chart below compare the slope of the EZ MFG PMI (brown line ) with the ISNM PMI (blue line) Markit (US) PMI does not count.

GVI Forex Blog 14:38 GMT October 1, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. September 2018 Mfg PMI Misses Slightly
Reply   
September 2018 U.S. ISM Mfg PMI misses slightly. Final Markit PMI steady. ISM report much more important.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. September 2018 Mfg PMI Misses Slightly

GVI Trader john 14:14 GMT October 1, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI September 2018

U.S. Data Charts



News ALERT

59.8 vs. 60.0 exp. vs. 61.3 prev.
RELEASE: ISM Manufacturing PMI

---

TTN: Live News Special Offer

hk win10 13:49 GMT October 1, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Think UK is willing to make compromise to avoid the pound to fall to 1.1

GVI Trader john 13:46 GMT October 1, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Markit final Mfg PMI September 2018

ALERT
55.6 vs. 55.6 exp. vs. 55.6 prev.

---

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trader john 13:32 GMT October 1, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Canada Final Markit PMI September 2018

ALERT
Headline
54.8 vs. 56.8 exp. vs. 56.8 (r ) prev.

---

TTN: Live News Special
Offer

GVI 13:26 GMT October 1, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Fed's Bostic (dove, voter): job disruption is happening at a much faster pace


- Source TradeTheNews.com

Mtl JP 13:24 GMT October 1, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 1 October 2018

a parade of yakkers in line today:
bostic, tenreyro, kashkari, resengren, villeroy, lane, haldane ...

Mtl JP 13:06 GMT October 1, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 1 October 2018

IF GBP goes south of 1.3030
it will injure if not maim more than a few gbp enthusiasts

Amman wfakhoury 13:01 GMT October 1, 2018
GBPUSD 13110 confirmed
Reply   
scalp buy till 13110 ..add buy if decline

Mtl JP 12:59 GMT October 1, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

fwiw voting dove bostic yaks imminently

Mtl JP 12:52 GMT October 1, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

euro still sub 1.1630 w/ 1.1624 High
feeble digestion

GVI Trader john 12:46 GMT October 1, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Market attempting to digest implications of Brexit headline just below. Is it real or not and what does it imply?

GVI 12:44 GMT October 1, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

UK said to plan compromise on Irish border; to accept some checks in Irish Sea to get Brexit deal - press - Source TradeTheNews.com

Mtl JP 12:35 GMT October 1, 2018
Winners and Losers

Winners and Winners
------------------------
11:00am NYT
President Trump is scheduled to spin USMCA

Mtl JP 12:30 GMT October 1, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 1 October 2018



re lalla zone: between the red lines
I am willing to wait for a break-out either side
once it goes ... maybe good for ~50pips

Mtl JP 12:19 GMT October 1, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 1 October 2018

EURO 1,16
lets say puppy trying to be non-chalant vs Italian
ECB still will not admit its policies have been much less are a success judging from couere's "market intelligence" earlier comments. These guys just dont know what shame is.

In the very short-term 1.1630-1.1575 = lalla zone

GVI 10:49 GMT October 1, 2018
Two-Thirds of U.S. Business Economists See Recession by End-2020 Bloomberg.com
Reply   
Two-thirds of business economists in the U.S. expect a recession to begin by the end of 2020, while a plurality of respondents say trade policy is the greatest risk to the expansion, according to a new survey.

About 10 percent see the next contraction starting in 2019, 56 percent say 2020 and 33 percent said 2021 or later, according to the Aug. 28-Sept. 17 poll of 51 forecasters issued by the National Association for Business Economics on Monday...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-01/two-thirds-of-u-s-business-economists-see-recession-by-end-2020?srnd=premium

GVI 10:49 GMT October 1, 2018
Two-Thirds of U.S. Business Economists See Recession by End-2020 Bloomberg.com
Reply   
wo-thirds of business economists in the U.S. expect a recession to begin by the end of 2020, while a plurality of respondents say trade policy is the greatest risk to the expansion, according to a new survey.

About 10 percent see the next contraction starting in 2019, 56 percent say 2020 and 33 percent said 2021 or later, according to the Aug. 28-Sept. 17 poll of 51 forecasters issued by the National Association for Business Economics on Monday.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-01/two-thirds-of-u-s-business-economists-see-recession-by-end-2020?srnd=premium

GVI Trader john 10:05 GMT October 1, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 1 October 2018

For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!

GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:


POSITIVE-NEUTRAL

Spot EURUSD: 1.1614
Pivot Point: 1.1612

Last Week Week: 1.1570-1.1815
Mon: 1.1574-1.1619

Fri: 1.1570-1.1661
Thu: 1.1642-1.1757
Wed: 1.1726-1.1798
Tue: 1.1731-1.1793


20-day avg: 1.1662
50-day avg: 1.1612
100-day avg: 1.1656
200-day avg: 1.1946

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Fed 25bp hike odds for Dec 19 (second 25bp hike): 72% (74%).

10-yr Bonds
US: 3.080% +3.2bp
DE: 0.493% -0.3
GB: 1.597% +2.0
JP: 0.132% +0.6

DAX: +74
Implied Open
DJ: +210
SP: +19.7

---

See the Amazing Trader Live!

Mtl JP 09:56 GMT October 1, 2018
Winners and Losers

Winners and Losers - wooo...hooo
---------------------
Should investors fear October, a historic ‘jinx month’ for stocks?
The average stock is overvalued somewhere between tremendously and enormously
Stock investors can no longer ignore the next bear market
Fasten your seat belt for stocks: October is almost here
- MarketWatch

for the record:
DJIA 26458.31
S&P 500 2,913.98

GVI Trader john 09:36 GMT October 1, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Japan Quarterly Tankan Survey 3Q18

EARLIER: News ALERT
Big Mfg +19 vs. +22 exp. vs. +21 prev.

---

TTN: Live News Special Offer

perth wtr 09:11 GMT October 1, 2018
sell euro, buy usd
Reply   
sold 11605, stop 11637, target friday's low initially

Amman wfakhoury 08:58 GMT October 1, 2018
EURUSD 11683

any decline below 11595 will return to it unless it closed below 11570

Amman wfakhoury 08:47 GMT October 1, 2018
EURUSD 11683
Reply   
11683 still active ..scalp buy.

GVI Forex Blog 08:38 GMT October 1, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Manufacturing PMI Beats In October 2018
Reply   
September 2018 U.K. Manufacturing PMI stonger.

BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Manufacturing PMI Beats In October 2018

GVI Trader john 08:32 GMT October 1, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

GB MFG PMI stronger than expected.

GVI Trader john 08:31 GMT October 1, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

GB Manufacturing PMI September 2018

U.K. Charts






-- NEWS ALERT --
53.8 vs. 52.5 exp. vs. 52.8 (r 53.0) prev.

---

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 08:16 GMT October 1, 2018
Equities Mixed. 10-yr Yields Up. FX: EUR And USD Mixed
Reply   

Equities Mixed. 10-yr Yields Up. FX: EUR And USD Mixed

GVI Trader john 08:07 GMT October 1, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: E.Z. Final Service Manufacturing PMIs Revised down for September 2018

Weakest EZ Mfg PMI for two years.

GVI Forex Blog 08:06 GMT October 1, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: E.Z. Final Service Manufacturing PMIs Revised down for September 2018
Reply   
EZ August 2018 final Manufacturing PMIs. Mixed revisions down.

BREAKING NEWS: E.Z. Final Service Manufacturing PMIs Revised down for September 2018

GVI Trader john 08:01 GMT October 1, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:
Reply   
EZ Final Manufacturing PMIs September 2018

ALERT
EZ
mfg: 53.2 vs. 53.5 exp. vs. 53.5 flash
Germany
mfg: 53.7 vs. 53.7 exp. vs. 53.7 flash
France
mfg 52.5 vs. 52.5 exp. vs. 52.5 flash



Markit PMI Press Release

---

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 07:48 GMT October 1, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 1 October 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 1 Oct 2018
All Day- Final Mfg PMIs
A 01:30 AU- CPI
Tue 2 Oct 2018
A 14:00 AU- RBA Decision
Wed 3 Oct 2018
All Day- Final SVC PMIs
b>A 12:15 US- ADP Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
Thu 4 Oct 2018
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US= Factory Orders
Fri 5 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 CA/US- Employment
A 12:30 CA/US- Trade

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

---

Monday Trading Checklist 1 October 2018

PAR 07:29 GMT October 1, 2018
RISK ON
Reply   
Risk on as NAFTA get renamed USMCA and Tesla and Musk get symbolic fine .

Italian stocks rise on paroles,paroles and promises to keep deficit low .

Mtl JP 06:36 GMT October 1, 2018
Winners and Losers

Winners and Losers
-
NAFTA is now called the USMCA.
“It's a good day for Canada,” according to Trudeau

Mtl JP 06:20 GMT October 1, 2018
Winners and Losers



Gap & USDCAD 1,2818
channel support
plz mind your risk

dc CB 02:40 GMT October 1, 2018
Winners and Losers

"We Have A Trilateral Deal": US, Canada Agree To Update Nafta Ahead Of Midnight Deadline

Jkt Abel 01:42 GMT October 1, 2018
Winners and Losers

JP, you gonna long usdcad for closing the gap game?

dc CB 01:18 GMT October 1, 2018
Winners and Losers

Canada PM Trudeau Calls 10PM Cabinet Meeting With Nafta Deal Announcement Imminent

dc CB 00:27 GMT October 1, 2018
Winners and Losers

Tin Foil Hats on???
Take a peak at the Supreme Court nomination, Kavanaugh v Sex Misconduct while in HS and a Freshman in college to guage how the Democrats are doing---making fools of themselves---However they are doubling/tripling down and All the MSM appears to be on their side. The DiViDe is widening and about to get real viscious...

with retail going All-In --- see last post. The conditions are ripe for Stage 3. With 5 weeks to go to get the "Blue Wave" to materialize.

Mtl JP 00:21 GMT October 1, 2018
Winners and Losers

Winners and Losers
---------------------
..."California Gov. Jerry Brown signed on Sunday a landmark bill mandating that all publicly traded companies with headquarters in the state have at least one woman on their boards by the end of next year. By 2021, companies with at least five directors would need to have two or three female directors, depending on the size of the board, according to the new law. Those that don’t face financial penalties." ...
- wires

Mtl JP 00:00 GMT October 1, 2018
Winners and Losers

Winners and Losers
---------------------
From the "told u so" file on GVI - partial post, relating to seasonality of stocks:
Mtl JP 19:01 GMT September 13, 2018
------------------------
Wall street bonuses are usually paid on Sept 30th numbers as year end is set that way for investment houses vs regular companies that usually use year end or November 30th ( to be able to pay xmas bonuses). I would be VERY surprised if we don’t hit all New FRESH highs by then.

And then we have October the black sheep Month of the year where basically Stats rule the day as long as whisper numbers that only the mega rich and powerful are privy to ahead of the releases . .../..
gl