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Forex Forum Archive for 10/04/2018

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Mtl JP 20:36 GMT October 4, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 5 October 2018



USDCAD 1.2920
puppy finally filled its GAP
next obvious Qtn is: where next?

Res1 1.2965
Pivot 1.2906
Sup 1 1.2874

20dma 1.2952
200dma 1.2865

I am currently biased South

GVI Trader john 20:09 GMT October 4, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 5 October 2018

Late Thursday
DJ -201
10s 3.193%

EURUSD 1.1512
USDJPY 113.83
GBPUSD 1.3020

GVI Trader john 19:49 GMT October 4, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 5 October 2018

For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:


NEUTRAL

Spot EURUSD: 1.1512
Pivot Point: 1.1506

This Week: 1.1463-1.1623
Thu: 1.1463-1.1542
Wed: 1.1509-1.1593
Tue: 1.1505-1.1580
Mon: 1.1564-1.1623

Fri: 1.1570-1.1661

20-day avg: 1.1647
50-day avg: 1.1600
100-day avg: 1.1642
200-day avg: 1.1938

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Dec 19: 80% (74%).

Livingston nh 19:01 GMT October 4, 2018
Weekly OKR in Nasdaq

SPX bounced off 40 dma (been above since early July) -- Nyse new 52 wk/lo was 273 yesterday and is over 400 today// market internals have been diverging from price for past two weeks

Q3 Earnings start and GOOD news comes early -- mid term worries and higher yields likely to rsist any bounce back in stox


GVI Forex Blog 19:00 GMT October 4, 2018
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 4 October 2018
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 4 October 2018

haifa ac 18:56 GMT October 4, 2018
Weekly OKR in Nasdaq

A drop to 6500 ( monthly 21 MA) which is another 1000 points from here would be a natural reaction and will hurt a few blind longs.

london red 18:14 GMT October 4, 2018
Weekly OKR in Nasdaq

mkt isnt allowed to fall enough to make it significant...reversion to mean is the best one can ask for...btfd

haifa ac 17:55 GMT October 4, 2018
Weekly OKR in Nasdaq
Reply   
may be the beginning of a serious correction

GVI Forex Blog 17:44 GMT October 4, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 5 October 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium


Fri 5 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 CA/US- Employment
A 12:30 CA/US- Trade

 

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium


Mon 8 Oct 2018
A 00:00 CA/US- Holiday
Tue 9 Oct 2018
No Major Data
Wed 10 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP/Output
A 12:30 US- PPI
Thu 11 Oct 2018
AA 12:30 US- CPI
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
Fri 12 Oct 2018
A 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com


Friday Trading Checklist For 5 October 2018

Jkt Abel 17:26 GMT October 4, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 4 October 2018

Loonie's gap closed. Whats next?

GVI 17:10 GMT October 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Janus Capital's Bill Gross: "10-year German Bunds are only 50bps higher than their absolute lows in June 2016. U.S. 10-year is 170 bps higher over same time period. Once ECB QE stops (soon), which one is overvalued? (Bunds!)" - Source TradeTheNews.com

Mtl JP 16:58 GMT October 4, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 4 October 2018

FED WATCHERS
-----------------
That wishi-washi "may" again as some (economists) would like others (traders) to believe that

"Bond markets may have overreacted to Powell’s ‘long way from neutral’ remark, economists say"

I submit that what the piece claims , namely that "the bond market selloff had started well before Powell spoke. While investors wanted to pin the blame on the Fed, it was misplaced." is wrong.

Furthermore "blaming" jerome is wrong use of English language: the word should be "credit" instead. BUT I grant that “This shows why the Fed staff is wary about the Fed chairman answering questions,” (Roberto Perli) and agree that often GV is correct in assigning A-risk to FED chair's yak as it can offer juicy trading opps. It also goes to show that one does not need to be an economist but more a savvy master of english and of communications to be an effective chair.

Economists say Powell comment just a reiteration of dot plot

SaaR KaL 16:20 GMT October 4, 2018
I am Buying EURUSD

Might see 1.18+ in a couple of weeks

SaaR KaL 16:19 GMT October 4, 2018
I am Buying EURUSD
Reply   


and others are reversing

Mtl JP 16:17 GMT October 4, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 4 October 2018

USDCAD 1.2915
"intuitively estimate" (tool borrowed from jerome)
I ll start a short usdcad at 1.1915, add 1.2920 if seen and
Q is stop... 1.2950 seems a lot

dc CB 16:02 GMT October 4, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 4 October 2018



red line

Mtl JP 16:00 GMT October 4, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 4 October 2018



USDCAD 1.2902
puppy closing in on the GAP at 1.2920
how it prances hence is the Q
200day current Sup

dc CB 16:00 GMT October 4, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 4 October 2018



MaRKIT Watch ----DJ/Murdock propOganda --- late to the party

Mtl JP 15:45 GMT October 4, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 4 October 2018

Kids... what do you think of
"Bond-market bloodbath likely to hit mortgage rates soon — another test for the housing market" - marketwatch

Trade ideas what to
- sell _
- buy _ ?

dc CB 15:27 GMT October 4, 2018
Not the Onion

Bloomberg Business Week --- latest issue

How China Used a Tiny Chip to Infiltrate U.S. Companies

dc CB 15:25 GMT October 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:



dancing on the grave

Mtl JP 15:25 GMT October 4, 2018
Not the Onion

Justice Department says (suggest put on your Depends before reading further)

Bitcoin was used to fund Russia’s cyberattacks

Mtl JP 15:06 GMT October 4, 2018
Amazing Trader Says

Aggressor eh ?
"what does not maim or kill you disappoints me" tag is available for license




at no charge *v*

Mtl JP 14:59 GMT October 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

red 13:32 excellent entry nose

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:57 GMT October 4, 2018
Amazing Trader Says

We have added an AT Aggressor Approach to our program and if you are interested in more details, send me an EMAIL

Mtl JP 14:53 GMT October 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

The unfortunate part about a hard brexit is that it will not cause the EU to dis-integrate. That puppy may get get its jaw dislocated or back broken, but it will continue to twist and crawl but die it will not.
Not next week not next year.

GVI 14:41 GMT October 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Austria FM Loeger: talks seem to be on track for a hard Brexit; Irish govt is speaking of a 'seismic shock' from Brexit - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader john 14:30 GMT October 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

EIA U.S. Natural Gas

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
(BCF) +98 vs: +87 expected

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:28 GMT October 4, 2018
Amazing Trader Says

EURUSD high 1.1542. See my previous post in this thread (click on the title)

Dubai MA 14:26 GMT October 4, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 4 October 2018

Is anyone buying dollars or already long?

GVI Trader john 14:22 GMT October 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Canada Ivey PMI sharply weaker in September 2018. It is always hard to trust the Ivey PMI.


dc CB 14:05 GMT October 4, 2018
Crude

nh
hope you sold some of that DUMB

GVI Trader john 14:05 GMT October 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Factory Orders September 2018




ALERT
+2.30% vs. +1.00% exp. vs. -0.80% (r )prev. rev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer





------


Canada Ivey PMI (sa) September 2018





ALERT
50.4 vs. 62.3 exp. vs. 61.9 prev.
RELEASE: Ivey Purchasing Managers Report


TTN: Live News Special Offer

dc CB 14:01 GMT October 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

come on baby
let's do the twist
come on baby
the Bernanke twist
never get's old
just do as you're told
do the twist

a round and a round we go
who's sellin' it, buyin' it
nobody knows
worked for us bsck then
so we're doin' it again
The Bernanke Twist, do the twist,

Euro Jumps On Report ECB Considering "Twist-Like" Operation

GVI 13:52 GMT October 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

ECB's Nowotny (Austria): dangers linked to Brexit are underestimated; there's danger a hard Brexit is becoming more relevant - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI 13:52 GMT October 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

ECB's Nowotny (Austria): dangers linked to Brexit are underestimated; there's danger a hard Brexit is becoming more relevant - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:49 GMT October 4, 2018
Amazing Trader Says

HOD so far 1.1527, 1 pip shy of the AT resistance band posted in this thread. 1,1528 is also 50% of 1.1593-1.1463

key res is at 1.1546 to put the price action in perspective. (1.1543 = 61.8%)

The Amazing Trader

london red 13:32 GMT October 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

euro fade 11534 stop 11596 tgt 11435. if seen of course as not there yet.

haifa ac 13:32 GMT October 4, 2018
Will Trump win Nobel Peace Prize tmw?
Reply   
18 republican senators proposed his candidacy
331 are competing ...216 persons and 115 organizations
leading candidate is former president of Catalonia (Fudjamonn?!)

GVI 13:25 GMT October 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Russia Energy Min Novak: Can't rule out oil reaching $100/bbl

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:57 GMT October 4, 2018
Amazing Trader Says

AT double top at 1.1515 (also bottom of AT resistance band to 1.1515-21-28)

The Amazing Trader

GVI Forex Blog 12:43 GMT October 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Low
Reply   
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims fall modestly.

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Chart
<Click on chart for over seventeen-year history

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Low

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:42 GMT October 4, 2018
Amazing Trader Says
Reply   
EURGBP .8847

This cross continues to drive fx today and is testing key AT support at .8847. This suggests using the magic .8850 level as a bias indicator with next key support at .8795-10

GBPUSD leading and dragging EURUSD with a lag.

All trading levels and patterns can be seen live on the Amazing Trader

The Amazing Trader

Mtl JP 12:38 GMT October 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

as expected player reaction: nil
lets see if quarles can be juiced for few pips in little over half an hour at 9:15

GVI Trader john 12:30 GMT October 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

US Weekly Jobless Claims



ALERT

207K vs. 215K exp vs. 214K (r. 215K ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trader john 12:20 GMT October 4, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 4 October 2018

Re weekly Jobless, I've heard there could be an slight uptick due to the hurricane in the Carolina's. This is NOT my forecast, I don't have one, just passing on what I hear.

london red 12:08 GMT October 4, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 4 October 2018

adp has set up tomorrows jobs number but wages most imp. euro firmer on positive brexit risk but any rebound likely to run out of steam by 11530-50 while a brexit related spike unlikely to surpass 11594 prev high. mkt set to close week below 115 so fading rallies makes sense.

Mtl JP 12:04 GMT October 4, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 4 October 2018

At bottom of hour
gv A-risk rated US jobless claims number (210k vs 214k)

I wont be looking to trade it,
it is unlikely to register on players' radar

Mtl JP 12:00 GMT October 4, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 4 October 2018

Footnote: the alleged bond king Gross' fund, according to morningstar, was down over 40% ytd at end of august.

With just 4 months left in order to just make up the loss and break even Bill needs to make a 67% return on his end-of-august remaining capital.

Mtl JP 11:50 GMT October 4, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 4 October 2018

Another verbs in past tense "essplainer" :
“Euroland, Japanese previous buyers of 10yr Treasurys have been priced out of market due to changes in hedge costs,” - opined , too late obviously, Bill Gross

Mtl JP 11:21 GMT October 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Jay 10:01 - euro 1.1596 ... on which platty OR
wishful thinking freudian slip ?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:34 GMT October 4, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 4 October 2018

EURGBP ,8854

The focus is more on EURGBP (and other GBP crosses) than GBPUSD. In this regard, AT shows key EURGBP support at .8847.

The Amazing Trader (AT)

UK JY 10:25 GMT October 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Thanks ACC. I just checked and the FT story was out hours ago. It is probably the reason the gbp turned bid.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:21 GMT October 4, 2018
Will the EURUSD close the week above or below 1,15?

This turned out to be a good question. Please post your opinions.

Sydney ACC 10:13 GMT October 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

FT reports Irish government backs May's plan for a customs union raising hopes for of breakthrough in Brexit talks

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:01 GMT October 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

GBPUSD 1.2979
No news that we saw to account for the sudden GBPUSD spike but assume there might have been some Brexit related headline. Key AT res is at 1.3023 and 1.30 is the obvious bias setter.

EURUSD 1.1496
EURUSD followed with a lag as EURGBP slipped, held a test of 1.1505, yesterday's late breakdown level. 1.15 the obvious bias setter as well.

Key levels and trading patterns all shown on the Amazing Trader

The Amazing Trader

Mtl JP 09:51 GMT October 4, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 4 October 2018

haven't had the opp to use the term of late but
consequences from cretins' policies = trade opportunities

what would we do without 'em... eh ?

GVI Trader john 09:39 GMT October 4, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 4 October 2018

The bond vigilantes appear to have awoken from a long slumber. The U.S. ten year has popped higher and rates in key markets abroad are up substantially as well. As a result, equities are nervous.

My guess is that the Fed will be nervous about the pace of the rate adjustment, and the White House will be unhappy about the higher USD. Don't be surprised if the Prez sends out a tweet about the strong USD very shortly. Also sanctions on Iran have created a temporary oil shortage and that will start to be felt in energy prices globally. Policy actions have consequences.

GVI Trader john 09:29 GMT October 4, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 4 October 2018

For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:


NEUTRAL

Spot EURUSD: 1.1495
Pivot Point: 1.1539

This Week: 1.1463-1.1623
Thu: 1.1463-1.1503
Wed: 1.1509-1.1593
Tue: 1.1505-1.1580
Mon: 1.1564-1.1623

Fri: 1.1570-1.1661

20-day avg: 1.1652
50-day avg: 1.1602
100-day avg: 1.1645
200-day avg: 1.1940

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Dec 19: 74% (76%).

10-yr Bonds
US: 3.221% +6.0bp
DE: 0.539% +5.7
GB: 1.659% +7.3
JP: 0.158% +1.8

DAX: -62
Implied Open
DJ: -87
SP: -13.9



See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI Forex Blog 09:00 GMT October 4, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 4 October 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium



Thu 4 Oct 2018
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US= Factory Orders
Fri 5 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 CA/US- Employment
A 12:30 CA/US- Trade


GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium



Mon 8 Oct 2018
A 00:00 CA/US- Holiday
Tue 9 Oct 2018
No Major Data
Wed 10 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP/Output
A 12:30 US- PPI
Thu 11 Oct 2018
AA 12:30 US- CPI
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
Fri 12 Oct 2018
A 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Thursday Trading Checklist 4 October 2018

london red 08:59 GMT October 4, 2018
Will the EURUSD close the week above or below 1,15?

11497 was a key fib and so a close below weakens the structure further.

haifa ac 08:57 GMT October 4, 2018
Will the EURUSD close the week above or below 1,15?

"daily close below 115 bad news."
Why bad news?
don't we have a gap around 108 (from April-May 2017) to close?

Mtl JP 08:54 GMT October 4, 2018
Crude

Anecdote:
WTI 76.33
WCS 29.41
------------
at $46 difference canadian producers keep on producing with either little market demand and/or high input costs including that of distribution.

raises questions about justin pretty hair and sox trudeau's pipeline, by the time IF ever it is expanded to try to peddle canadian crap, IF asians will even want it even a $1/bbl

Mtl JP 08:41 GMT October 4, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 4 October 2018

Early observations
euro's attempt to regain 1.15 repulsed on 1rst approach
at 1.2967 GBP slightly uP right on 50dma atm)

usdcad 1.2885 on top 200dma 1.2863

Mtl JP 08:26 GMT October 4, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 4 October 2018

10-yr 3.225
bund 0.544
------------
2 yr 2,901
german -0.5357

SaaR KaL 05:54 GMT October 4, 2018
EURUSD
Reply   
EURUSD Seems Like Bullish now
USDJPY seems Bearish

london red 05:45 GMT October 4, 2018
Will the EURUSD close the week above or below 1,15?

daily close below 115 bad news. intraday staying below 115/11530 keeps pressure on downside.

Mtl JP 05:20 GMT October 4, 2018
Winners and Losers

USDCNY near 7...
should be playable

Dillon AL 01:20 GMT October 4, 2018
Winners and Losers

methinks he takes himself too seriously

Mtl JP 00:38 GMT October 4, 2018
Winners and Losers

Winners and Losers
----------------------
Fed Chairman Powell says that when it comes to this economy, ‘everything’ keeps him up at night

I wonder how (a survey?) Powell knows that

Powell: ‘Nobody wants a central banker who sleeps well’

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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