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Forex Forum Archive for 10/05/2018

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


GVI Trader john 19:37 GMT October 5, 2018
Commitment Of Traders Report For 2 October 2018
Reply   

EURUSD longs gone

USDJPY longs increasing

GBPUSD shorts persist

USDCAD longs narrowing?

AUDUSD shorts growing




EURUSD Commitment of Traders Chart




USDJPY Commitment of Traders Chart




GBPUSD Commitment of Traders Chart




USDCAD Commitment of Traders Chart




AUDUSD Commitment of Traders Chart


GVI Forex Blog 19:02 GMT October 5, 2018
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 5 October 2018
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 5 October 2018

Mtl JP 19:00 GMT October 5, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 4 October 2018

Mtl JP 15:45 GMT October 4, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 4 October 2018: Reply
Kids... what do you think of
"Bond-market bloodbath likely to hit mortgage rates soon another test for the housing market" - marketwatch

Trade ideas what to
- sell _
- buy _ ?

---------------------
I am learning...

Homebuilders ETF extend record losing streak to 13 days

GVI Trader john 17:09 GMT October 5, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Baker Hughes Rig Count


NEWS ALERT
U.S.
Total: 1052 vs. 1054 (-2) prev.
Oil: 861 vs. 863 (-2) prev.
Canada: 182 vs. 178 (+3)


TTN: Live News Special Offer


dc CB 16:04 GMT October 5, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 5 October 2018

WTI Crude - Vol/OI. Thurs Final --Front 3 Futures Contracts.
more liquidation?
NOV 18 352,392 -31,078
DEC 18 307,548 -2,049
JAN 19 164,752 -3,302

Nov LastTrade Oct 22
for today 75 seem to be top, which is also the Pivot --- R1,R2 etc above 7499.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:59 GMT October 5, 2018
Virtual Town Hall Meeting
Reply   

With traders scattered in all time zones, finding the ideal time for a Town Hall meeting is a challenge. So instead, we are holding a virtual Town Hall meeting where you can submit questions on anything to do with trading, including but not limited to the current outlook, strategies, money management, etc.

Post your comments in the comments box below, then scroll down and click submit. We will then reply in a virtual Town Hall meeting format and send you a copy.


Note, all names of those who submit questions will be kept confidential.

Name:
Email:
Comment:

dc CB 15:47 GMT October 5, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 5 October 2018



Red Line now ceiling.
note Yuge volume yest.

Mtl JP 15:37 GMT October 5, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 5 October 2018

CB Elon is turning out to be priceless
putting price (cost?) on sarcastic humor
Stock worth a dib at ~$50/60

GVI 15:28 GMT October 5, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Atlanta Fed maintains Q3 GDP forecast at 4.1% - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI 15:21 GMT October 5, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

New York Fed Nowcast: cuts Q3 GDP forecast to 2.3% from 2.5% prior; cuts Q4 forecast to 2.8% from 2.9% prior - Source TradeTheNews.com

dc CB 15:18 GMT October 5, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 5 October 2018



Because Musk is a Genius LMAO

Just hours after we reported that a judge was seeking further explanation on the fairness of the settlement between Elon Musk and the Securities and Exchange Commission, a tweet from Elon Musk's Twitter account openly mocked the government agency. In a Tweet by Musk just after 4PM EST, he referred to the SEC as the "Shortseller Enrichment Commission". ZeroHedge

Mtl JP 15:14 GMT October 5, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 5 October 2018

I repeat my earlier contention that
EURO under 1.1550 /00 bodes for a trip to august lows

dc CB 15:11 GMT October 5, 2018
Not the Onion
Reply   
Tin Foil Hat Edition:
Update: Kavanaugh received enough votes to advance to nomination. Notably, GOP swing vote Lisa Murkowski of Alaska - who Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) gave a "talking to" in the Senate hallway last week - voted no, while Jeff Flake (R-AZ) and Joe Manchin (D-WV) voited yes.
The final vote to confirm Kavanaugh will be held on Saturday.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The Left lost/losing on SCOTUS Nomination --- 5(repubs) v 4 (dems) in the cards. No longer a sure thing that the courts can be used to Block Trump's initiatives going forward.
Next chance to Stop-Nov 6.
Launch Stage 3

Mtl JP 15:05 GMT October 5, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

whoever said FX is a friendly environment ?
"what does not maim or kill you disappoints me"

GVI Trader john 15:02 GMT October 5, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Last minute volatility in Europe on EU item below.

Mtl JP 15:01 GMT October 5, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

14:57 - what crock of fertilizer from whatever "EU"
and what a JUBB !

Mtl JP 14:59 GMT October 5, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

short while ago williams proclaimed that he is blind to (price) inflation

GVI 14:57 GMT October 5, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

EU said to be preparing to offer UK supercharged free trade deal - press

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Mtl JP 14:52 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets

EURO H: 1.15489
see 12:42
nuff said

Mtl JP 14:48 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets

ps / there is no such thing as "magic" in FX

A dream of profitable trade doesn't become reality through magic;
it takes sweat - which comes from managing risk first and foremost, from exposing self to risk of taking a loss.

Alternately

consult here

dc CB 14:41 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets

nh
riding the slide

Dec 2019 Eurodollars

A Markets Cube Broker Review 14:38 GMT October 5, 2018 Reply   

A Broker Review for A Markets Cube Broker Review has just been added.

Mtl JP 14:36 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets

GBP High: 1.3105
see 13:29
nuff said...

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:32 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets

That's like asking for a strategy after AT showed the way on both sides.

Let's put it this way. At this time on a Friday you are at the mercy of end of week flows but unless a new high for the day is set, there should be limited follow through on the upside.

The Amazing Trader

Jkt Abel 14:25 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets

Ok so AT says sell rallies now that intraday high is set?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:23 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets



I don't want to come across as promoting the Amazing Trader but if you had access to it you would not have to ask that question.

Risk had been pointed up and GBPUSD traded in that direction as I indicated earlier..

See this AT chart for the signal for an intra-day top.



The Amazing Trader

Jkt Abel 14:07 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets

Yes but which direction do you think is better today?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:02 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets

GBP got within 15 pips of the AT target. See my earlier post on the AT risk for 1.3115, good directional post. .

EURUSD just ran stops above 1.1543-46 but could not get through the magic 1.1550 level.

Some meaningless Brexit headlines out but news algos react first and then market comes to its senses.

The Amazing Trader

Mtl JP 13:59 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets

abel imo today is time to be fickle, quick and uncommitted
ie. quick in , quick out

Jkt Abel 13:51 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets

JP are you fading cable above 1 31?

Mtl JP 13:29 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets

One thing that remains is that despite pre-NFP "significant" hype, players have not been violently set off in one direction and remain relatively sanguine.

Letsee how hungry / playful GBP 1.31 is.
I think it ll hold off first attempt.

GVI Forex Blog 13:20 GMT October 5, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: Canada Employment Data Beat in September 2018
Reply   

Canada Jobs: Beat expectations, full-time employment falls in September 2018.


BREAKING NEWS: Canada Employment Data Beat in September 2018

GVI Forex Blog 13:13 GMT October 5, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Employment Data Solid In September 2018
Reply   
U.S. Monthly Employment.

September 2018 U.S. payroll employment hits street estimates after massive August upward Revision. Average Hourly Earnings 0.3% (2.80% y/y)


Click on chart for more than 10-yr history

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Employment Data Solid In September 2018

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:00 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets

JP, EURUSD is tied to GBP even if it lags due to a weaker EURGBP. So while GBPUSD trades bid above 1,30 on Brexit optimism, it is limiting the EURUSD downside.

AT currently shows:

If GBPUSD holds above 1.3059, then risk is for 1.3115

The Amazing Trader

GVI Trader john 12:43 GMT October 5, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. (USD bn) & Canada (CAD bn) Trade August 2018



ALERT
-53.2 vs. -51.0b exp. vs. -50.1b (r -50.1b) prev.
Canada Trade C$ bln
+0.58 vs. -0.50 exp. vs. -0.10 (r -0.20% )prev.

U.S. Balance on Goods and Services

Canadian Trade Balance


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 12:42 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets



Euro and DLR
---------------
seeing this pair under 1.1550 and especially under 1.1500 says
puppy is heading to august's low

GVI Trader john 12:40 GMT October 5, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Canada EMPLOYMENT September 2018



NEWS ALERT

Jobs: +63.3 vs. +27.5K exp. vs. -51.6K prev.
Full-Time -16.9K vs. n/a exp. vs. +40.4K prev.
Rate: 5.90% vs. 5.90% exp. vs. 6.00% prev.



RELEASE: StatCan Monthly Employment Report





TTN: Live News Special Offer


GVI Trader john 12:37 GMT October 5, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Focus on the massive revision to August. Solid Jobs figures on balance

Mtl JP 12:37 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets

euro is a sell now , H only 1.1530 could not even hit 1.1550

GVI Trader john 12:35 GMT October 5, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

=00.30%U.S. Employment September 2018







ALERT

NFP Jobs:
+134K vs. +185K exp. vs. +201K (r +270K ) prev.
Rate: 3.70% vs. 3.80% exp. vs. 3.90% prev.

Avg earnings: vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.40% prev.
BLS: Employment Situation Summary


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 12:33 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets

NFP 134K vs +185K expt'd

Livingston nh 12:31 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets

jp - I know but that's where you get A USD Reaction - Philips curve is still held by Fed but it's not a CAUSE of inflation

Mtl JP 12:30 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets

CPI not being released this a.m.

Livingston nh 12:24 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets

1969 unemployment rate was influenced (like a lot of econ figs) by the "war" in VietNam that took a lot of guys out of the labor pool // we could go to 3.7% today BUT - AHE is fighting hi pay retirees replaced by lower paid entry, rising cost of benefits (AKA health insurance) and last year's big jump in Sept
___
CPI is the inflation bogey to watch

Mtl JP 12:23 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets

In my old days of Economics 101 textbooks, professors were peddling the idea that 4% was considered FULL Employment.

Mtl JP 12:18 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets

Under 3.7% would be a low last seen 50yrs ago
3.5% Dec 1969
------------------
similar number should be fodder for all sorts of excited speculation from economists.

How traders would react to prospect of no more available labour at current level of pay is another open speculation.

Mtl JP 12:15 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets

There is NO WAY for me trade the NFP numbers because I am NOT In the Circle or faster than my dealer to react. Physically just not there.

Sooo... all I can do is fire up my speedy stacking robot in an attempt at not hopping on the locomotive but maybe on the 2-3-4th waggon in the train.

2nd sooo...
IF USD rockets it will have meant that published NFP is higher than expectation and/or AHE is higher than expectation

and IF USD dives it will have meant that NFP and/or AHE are lower than expectation

The alternative is to be flat and wait out initial reaction and lurk for a fading opp.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:07 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets

JP, I do not run positions into a random #. AT showing bullish EURUSD pattern (our beta (demo testing) automated algo bought at 1.1494) off the low and same for GBPUSD but new ball game after the data. Targets would be 1.1516 in EURUSD and high was 1.1514 (close enough) but as I said not suggesting trading into this #.

Mtl JP 12:02 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets

Jay - heading into NFP , how are u preparing
are u flat ?
Or is AT perhaps already indicating which end of the magnet (+ or -) is over-pulling towards a target ?

HK [email protected] 11:59 GMT October 5, 2018
Will Trump win Nobel Peace Prize tmw?

.
Once you grabbed a pussy: NO NOBEL PRICE:(

Even if you bring world peace, because you are not a member of the liberal idiots club!!!

HK [email protected] 11:55 GMT October 5, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

.
All OECD countries are reporting this time to each, other not only Switzerland:)

Mtl JP 11:28 GMT October 5, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Swiss numbered accounts now POOF
swizziland now sharing banking information
reports Reuters
(probably bit late anyways - professional tax cheats knew this well ahead)

Era of bank secrecy ends as Swiss start sharing account data

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:24 GMT October 5, 2018
How to Set Your Trading Targets
Reply   
I created the program and am still amazed at how often a currency trades to an Amazing Trader (AT) line, almost like a magnet?

It is no coincidence as it is one of the strengths of the Amazing Trader.

I created this short video to illustrate and show how you can use AT lines as targets. If you have not mastered this it is a skill you can develop that should impact your trading.

https://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/cF6f0rY2pt

To request or renew your free AT trial, send me a reply email or sign up here

Regards

Jay Meisler

GVI 11:18 GMT October 5, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

German Gov't reportedly will lower its 2018 and 2019 GDP growth forecasts - press - To cuts its 2018 GDP growth forecast from 2.3% to 1.8% - To cut its 2019 GDP growth forecast to 2.0% - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:11 GMT October 5, 2018
Amazing Trader Says

This is one way to use AT and its uncanny ability to identify key levels/targets

Example: If .8847 becomes resistance, then risk is for a move to .8795-.8810 Low today so far .8811)

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:42 GMT October 4, 2018
Amazing Trader Says: Reply
EURGBP .8847

This cross continues to drive fx today and is testing key AT support at .8847. This suggests using the magic .8850 level as a bias indicator with next key support at .8795-10...

The Amazing Trader

SaaR KaL 11:08 GMT October 5, 2018
I guess USD Bearish now
Reply   
Accumulate time

My levels

haifa ac 09:40 GMT October 5, 2018
Will Trump win Nobel Peace Prize tmw?

Nope
rather conservative choice: gynecologist and Yazidi woman--Denis Muquaga from Congo and Nadia Murad from Iraq.

GVI Trader john 09:26 GMT October 5, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 5 October 2018

For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:


NEUTRAL

Spot EURUSD: 1.1494
Pivot Point: 1.1506

This Week: 1.1463-1.1623
Fri: 1.1489-1.1520
Thu: 1.1463-1.1542
Wed: 1.1509-1.1593
Tue: 1.1505-1.1580
Mon: 1.1564-1.1623

20-day avg: 1.1647
50-day avg: 1.1600
100-day avg: 1.1642
200-day avg: 1.1938

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Dec 19: 80% (74%).

10-yr Bonds
US: 3.204% +0.2bp
DE: 0.552% +1.9
GB: 1.693% +2.7
JP: 0.150% -1.0

DAX: -79
Implied Open
DJ: -16
SP: -2.0



See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:04 GMT October 5, 2018
Will the EURUSD close the week above or below 1,15?

This is still an open question and z good one to post your view during this pre-data ljll.

GVI Forex Blog 09:02 GMT October 5, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 5 October 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium



Fri 5 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 CA/US- Employment
A 12:30 CA/US- Trade


GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium



Mon 8 Oct 2018
A 00:00 CA/US- Holiday
Tue 9 Oct 2018
No Major Data
Wed 10 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP/Output
A 12:30 US- PPI
Thu 11 Oct 2018
AA 12:30 US- CPI
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
Fri 12 Oct 2018
A 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Friday Trading Checklist For 5 October 2018

haifa ac 08:01 GMT October 5, 2018
Weekly OKR in Nasdaq

The worst decline for very profitable longs is a slow one (prompting: " no momentum on the way down-btfd) and then a very sharp steep decline (perhaps one day limit down as a result of some event)
however two numbers seem important at the moment --7391 last month low which was an inside month so less significant and 7205- the low of August which will more than likely bring the 6500 target to the scene. On any parameter this bull is totally out of whack.
Melania is turning out to be a smart doll in her trip in Africa.

SaaR KaL 06:44 GMT October 5, 2018
Day trade for targets
Reply   
2 weeks tgts

Stock Trend TGT L T
AUD/USD(Close) Buy 0.7313
CAD/JPY(Close) Sell 85.59
EUR/CAD(Close) Buy 1.5437
EUR/USD(Close) Buy 1.1839
GBP/CAD(Close) Buy 1.7263
GBP/CHF(Close) Sell 1.2553
GBP/USD(Close) Buy 1.3232
NZD/USD(Close) Buy 0.6701
USD/CAD(Close) Buy 1.3071
USD/CHF(Close) Sell 0.9507
USD/JPY(Close) Sell 111.76

SaaR KaL 04:57 GMT October 5, 2018
Oct 5th levels

Test

SaaR KaL 04:41 GMT October 5, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 5 October 2018

I day trading to long to tgt> 1.3071

SaaR KaL 04:40 GMT October 5, 2018
Oct 5th levels
Reply   
These are good for Tgt Long Term

haifa ac 04:34 GMT October 5, 2018
Weekly OKR in Nasdaq

The big question is at what point (price) will we hear the dreadful word "October Massacre", if at all, causing minute panic.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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