Forex Forum Archive for 10/19/2018

Livingston nh 20:51 GMT October 19, 2018
MOC BUYING

If you want to know whether the STOX are in a correction or something worse play the open on Monday - choose your poison // China stox are in trouble and DAX is down over 15% for the year

For the US economy BEAR markets precede recession by ~6mos // SPX 2640 is a 10 % correction -- don't start thinking recession until you at least see that level

HAIR on FIRE comments are way too early

PAR 19:51 GMT October 19, 2018
MOC BUYING

All puts must expire worthless !

PAR 19:47 GMT October 19, 2018
MOC BUYING
Reply   
Art cashing sees $ billions of buy orders at and especially after the close ?

GVI Trader john 19:44 GMT October 19, 2018
Commitment Of Traders Report For 16 October 2018
Reply   
For Amazing Traders monitoring levels on stops for trading strategies...
COT report position highlights:

USDJPY longs leveling

GBPUSD shorts narrowing

USDCAD longs narrowing

AUDUSD shorts steady

GVI Forex Blog 19:08 GMT October 19, 2018
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 19 October 2018
Reply   

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 19 October 2018

PAR 19:00 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Le silence est froid et claire come Le cristal . Celui qui le brise Le paie .

Mtl JP 18:31 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

The Brussels princehood thinks that UK needs EU more than EU needs UK, economically speaking.

What Theresa needs to do is to regain control.
To do that she must "change the TV channel" to what is the main issue to the princes: namely the integrity and cohesion of the EU.

There is one rule in negotiation that determines who wins: layout a proposal and keep your mouth shut. (S)He who opens mouth first, loses.

GVI Trader john 18:06 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

a new PM

Mtl JP 17:57 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

john... move on .... to __ ?

PAR 17:57 GMT October 19, 2018
German Bunds
Reply   
How low can the yield on German bunds go before
every German bank goes bankrupt ?

Jkt Abel 17:49 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Euro and cable have seen high today IMO

GVI Trader john 17:49 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

nh- agree 100%. What can she "give" the EU? I don't think she lasts much longer. Its time for the Tories to move on...

Livingston nh 17:44 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

May briefed business types this afternoon -- she's delusional // the extension idea is a non starter and if she starts to waver on the "non-issue" of NI she is going to be attacked from every side

Mtl JP 17:43 GMT October 19, 2018
Winners and Losers

Winners and Losers
---------------------
what does it take to be one and not the other ?

Do not despair. With some skill, knowledge, patience, self-discipline and proper guidance, most investors have the potential to make millions, or a lot of money, in marijuana. Consider adopting a sophisticated approach. Sophistication takes more work but it is well worth it.

GVI Jay 17:11 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Only buy dips when the Amazibg Trader tells you to do so.

Jkt Abel 17:06 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Still buy usd dips it seems, cable just unable to hold gain

GVI Trader john 17:05 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Baker Hughes Rig Count

NEWS ALERT
U.S.
Total: 1067 vs. 1063 (+4) prev.
Oil: 873 vs. 869 (+4) prev.
Canada: 191 vs. 195 (-4)

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TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI 16:49 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

awaiting details. Happy Friday!

GVI 16:49 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

UK govt reportedly to drop a Brexit demand regarding Irish border in order to ease a deal - press

- Source TradeTheNews.com

PAR 16:21 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Have a look at the ECB balance sheet . Hit new alltime record high this week and it is full of Belgium , French , Greek , Italian and Spanish JUNK .

PAR 16:09 GMT October 19, 2018
ECB DRAGHI= PONZI=MAFIA
Reply   
Thank you Mario . All my long EURUSD positions , all my long commodity positions and all my long USDJPY positions are profitable by this weekend. I knew you wouldn't let me down.

GVI Forex Blog 15:35 GMT October 19, 2018
Equities Mixed. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: EUR And USD Mixed
Reply   

Equities Mixed. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: EUR And USD Mixed

Mtl JP 15:22 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

GBP
fwiw BoE's rockstar of banking is scheduled to grab a microphone sometime soon

GVI 15:19 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

New York Fed Nowcast: cuts Q3 GDP forecast to 2.1% from 2.2% prior; cuts Q4 forecast to 2.4% from 2.8% prior - News from this week's data releases decreased the nowcast for 2018:Q3 by 0.1 percentage point and decreased the nowcast for 2018:Q4 by 0.4 percentage point.- Negative surprises from retail sales data and housing data accounted for most of the decrease.

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:09 GMT October 19, 2018
Use These Trading Tips or Else
Reply   
...
Entry: Target: Stop:

Use These Trading Tips or Else

UK JY 15:06 GMT October 19, 2018
ECB DRAGHI= PONZI

PAR, do you just make this up or do you have real info on it?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:05 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

EURGBP is behind the EURUSD pop. Just broke an AT res at .8810 => if it holds then risk turns to .8825.

Belgrade Knez 15:00 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

PAR

how does this Italian bonds buying by ECB helps to trade eu please?

PAR 14:58 GMT October 19, 2018
ECB DRAGHI= PONZI
Reply   
ECB doing monetary and fiscal policy at the same time.

For an unelected official like Draghi that is way above his authority

He has become.a Central Bank Dictator with absolute powers .

PAR 14:52 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

ECB buys all.Italian bonds it can find .

Italian yields collaps on ECB intervention.

The price is FAKE. The NEWS IS FAKE .

Mtl JP 14:21 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Existing Homes Sales Miss In September 2018. Lowest Since November 2015

lets blame the real-estate peddlers
doing crap job
(they need to lower their comms)

Mtl JP 14:18 GMT October 19, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 19 October 2018

10-yr 3.202, 3.209 HoD sofar
still oohhhh soooo low

GVI Forex Blog 14:10 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Existing Homes Sales Miss In September 2018. Lowest Since November 2015
Reply   

Most significant housing statistic. Data worse than expected in September, 2018.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Existing Homes Sales Miss In September 2018. Lowest Since November 2015

GVI Trader john 14:03 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

top housing number. Lowest level since November 2015.

GVI Trader john 14:01 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln) September 2018

ALERT

p.a. s.a.: 5.150 vs. 5.310 exp. vs 5.340 (r. ) prev.

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TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 13:56 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

or discounting existing house sales at top of hour

GVI Forex 13:54 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Italian bonds and stocks rallying, EURUSD following.

Mtl JP 13:54 GMT October 19, 2018
Amazing Trader Update

Jay now that your 77 is chewed , puppy likely heading for 1.1525 +/-

Livingston nh 13:33 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Thanx JP
________
Daily dose of Brexit - most of the players won't be around in 12 mos // Is it now ANYBODY but MAY? -- Cable to slide BUT EUR to follow if Italy plus a UK PM change are too much turmoil

Mtl JP 13:28 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

USDCAD 1.310X

50dma 1.3056
odds are USDCAD
heading further N while 50day holds

I could try a temporary short IF puppy breaches 1.3090/80 , subject to the 50dma , but that would be a low odds trade imo.

Mtl JP 13:12 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

nh domestic economic situation is going fast from bad to bad-der
Department of Finance Canada will release the Annual Financial Report of the Government of Canada at approximately 11:00 a.m. ET on Friday, October 19"
wall-to-wall debt growing, gdp sputtering, and canadian crap oil been selling at a loss of late

Note the change in expense to protect against weak cad.

GVI Forex Blog 13:11 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: Canada CPI Much Weaker Expected September 2018. Sales Miss in August
Reply   
Canada: CPI misses expectations big.



Canada: Retail Sales much weaker than expectations

BREAKING NEWS: Canada CPI Much Weaker Expected September 2018. Sales Miss in August

Mtl JP 13:03 GMT October 19, 2018
Amazing Trader Update

did pop to 70 stop out the 77 short ?

Livingston nh 13:03 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

JP - does Poloz back off the rate hike NOW? USD/CAD 1.32

GVI Trader john 12:50 GMT October 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

BREAKING NEWS: Canada: CPI (September) Retail Sales ( August) 2018

NEWS ALERT
Headline CPI
mm: -0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. -0.10% prev.
yy: +2.20% vs. +2.70% exp. vs. +2.80% prev.


Retail Sales
Headline: -0.10% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.
X-Autos: -0.40% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.90% prev.

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TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 12:22 GMT October 19, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 19 October 2018

GBP 1.3027
Round no.: 1.3050 Res
50day 1.3016
Support at 1.30

Puppy continues to be vulnerable to headline risk
I am thinking unless it punches thru N of 1.3050/60
its bias is tilted south to low 1,29s

GVI Trader john 12:17 GMT October 19, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 19 October 2018

Note: expectation for CA CPI m/m updated to +0.10%.
Also the street has priced in a +25bp BOC rate hike to 1.75% for next Wednesday.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:09 GMT October 19, 2018
Amazing Trader Update

EURUSD
Entry: 1.1477 Target: Stop:

High was dead on at AT's 1.1477 level.

AT always gives you a level to trade.

The Amazing Trader

Mtl JP 11:59 GMT October 19, 2018
Bond Market Avalanche

ib... looks like Reuters' Karen Brettell been reading our discussion

Rising U.S. bond yields pose risks to greenback - RTRS

luckily for the salary-woman, unlike u or me she does not have to worry about timing:

Day to day, higher yields are cited as boosting the U.S. dollar as capital flows into the country to seek out the higher rates. But that correlation does not hold up in the longer term, with higher yields instead being a drain on the currency.

GVI Trader john 11:58 GMT October 19, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 19 October 2018

DJ +115
10s 3.192%

GVI Jay 11:47 GMT October 19, 2018
Amazing Trader Update

Looking at AT's shorter time frames, EURUSD has res at

1.1477/87/97

Note firmer EURGBP

Mtl JP 11:34 GMT October 19, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 19 October 2018

earlier barnier: dont want to impose hard brexit
haha... as IF "impose" was this grudge-holding frenchman's exclusive purview

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:23 GMT October 19, 2018
Is EURUSD 1.1433 the bottom for today?



EURUSD 1.1474

1.1432 is key support across multiple time frames. This 4 hour AT chart shows the line drawn well in advance.

FIBOS:

1.1475 = 50% of 1.1518-1.1433

1.1485 = 61.8%

The Amazing Trader

HK [email protected] 11:19 GMT October 19, 2018
Is EURUSD 1.1433 the bottom for today?

.
Euro may rise to 1.1490.
If can't pass 1.1490, the next move will be to 1.1395.
So I am biased to a break below 1.1433, to a lower bottom.

UK JY 11:11 GMT October 19, 2018
Is EURUSD 1.1433 the bottom for today?

The other reason is a buyer of eurgbp. Can't be long gbp over the w/e given risk of Brexit news.

GVI Forex 11:08 GMT October 19, 2018
Is EURUSD 1.1433 the bottom for today?

Italian bond yields still up on the day but off earlier highs, which may be a reason why EURUSD has bounced. .

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:43 GMT October 19, 2018
Amazing Trader Update

EURUSD
Entry: 1.1469 Target: Stop:

Tested AT resistance (cited earlier) at 1.1469, just below 1.1471 AT resistance as well is the key level that needs to hold to keep the risk on the downside and prevent 1.15 coming back on the radar.

The Amazing Trader

GVI Forex 10:21 GMT October 19, 2018
Is EURUSD 1.1433 the bottom for today?
Reply   
EURUSD
Entry: 1.1433 Target: Stop:

Post your view for what looks like a cautious end to the week.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:08 GMT October 19, 2018
Amazing Trader Update

Look at EURGBP for the flow behind the pop just now in EURUSD, which by the way held at AT 1.1466 resistance.

See this thread for my offer of a free video on how to use this cross to trade spot.

The Amazing Trader

GVI Trader john 09:32 GMT October 19, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 19 October 2018

For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!

GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:
NEUTRAL-NEGATIVE

Spot EURUSD: 1.1445
Pivot Point: 1.1481

This Week: 1.1433-1.1621

Fri: 1.1433-1.1470
Thu: 1.1452-1.1527
Wed: 1.1507-1.1580
Tue: 1.1566-1.1621
Mon: 1.1541-1.1606

20-day avg: 1.1588
50-day avg: 1.1582
100-day avg: 1.1625
200-day avg: 1.1913

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Fed 25bp hike odds for Dec 19: 82% (82%).

10-yr Bonds
US: 3.173% -2.3bp
DE: 0.410% -2.5
GB: 1.544% -2.0
JP: 0.149% -0.7

DAX: -45
Implied Open
DJ: +53
SP: +5.5

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See the Amazing Trader Live!

FFT 09:21 GMT October 19, 2018
Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Down. FX: USD & EUR Down

Look at Italian bonds selling off (higher yields) as a reason for weaker eurusd

GVI Forex Blog 09:17 GMT October 19, 2018
Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Down. FX: USD & EUR Down
Reply   

Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Down. FX: USD & EUR Down

GVI Jay 09:11 GMT October 19, 2018
Amazing Trader Update

EURUSD 1.1451

AT levela on both sides tested

1.1433: Key support and. bottom of current range

1.1469: AT resistance
Now 1.1450 sets the tone after bouncing off key support but trades bearish unless 1.1469+ trades.

The Amazing Trader

GVI Forex Blog 09:05 GMT October 19, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 19 October 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Fri 19 OCt 2018
AA 12:30 CA- CPI/ Retail Sales
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 22 Oct 2018
No Major Data
Tue 23 Oct 2018
No Major Data
Wed 24 Oct 2018
AAll Day Flash PMIs
A 12:30 US- Productivity
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 25 Oct 2018
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 18:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
AA 18:00 US- Beige Book
Fri 26 Oct 2018
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Friday Trading Checklist For 19 October 2018