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Forex Forum Archive for 11/02/2018

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dc CB 21:22 GMT November 2, 2018
Elections

Of course, there’s also a distinct possibility that the Dems will take over congress, in which case they’ll ramp up an even more horrific three-ring-circus of political hysteria and persecution that will make the Spanish Inquisition look like a backyard barbeque.
That will happen as the US enters the most punishing financial train wreck in our history, an interesting recipe for epic political upheaval.

Kunstler - the MidTerms

dc CB 21:17 GMT November 2, 2018
markets

the trade of the month goes to nh, the Dumb and Dumber WTI crude trade. suggested when WTI broke out of a many month range top of 75 and made it all the way past 76..

as noted the Sit-on-Hands Trade.
WTI has plunged 17% since its 76-handle probe in early October.
Cheeers

Mtl JP 20:28 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

80% ... Lets look at the "on the other hand" :
Bus-Metro-Walk ... is good for folks on many angles
not least for reasons of exercise (obesity) and reduced contribution to alleged (wo)man-made planet warming.

GVI 20:01 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Venezuela reportedly has nearly exhausted motor fuel stocks; over 80% of service stations have been forced to suspend sales until further notice - Argus Media - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader john 19:50 GMT November 2, 2018
Commitment Of Traders Report For 30 October 2018 Data
Reply   
For Amazing Traders monitoring levels on stops for trading strategies...
COT report position highlights:

EURUSD shorts building
USDJPY longs leveling
GBPUSD shorts narrowing
USDCAD longs narrowing
AUDUSD shorts steady

EURUSD Commitment of Traders Chart



USDJPY Commitment of Traders Chart



GBPUSD Commitment of Traders Chart



USDCAD Commitment of Traders Chart




AUDUSD Commitment of Traders Chart

PAR 19:45 GMT November 2, 2018
CHINA
Reply   
There is no China deal .It is all FAKE as usual .

PAR 19:29 GMT November 2, 2018
markets

Trump and Mnuchin love to manipulate markets higher with fake news and they are mega good at it .

lkwd jj 19:18 GMT November 2, 2018
markets
Reply   
retail traders cry foul after bloomberg manipulated markets with last nights fake china news....stops are like women cant live with emant live without em.

GVI Forex Blog 19:06 GMT November 2, 2018
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 2 November 2018
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 2 November 2018

GVI 19:01 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

ECB sources: no decision on new TLTRO action expected at the Dec policy meeting - press
- ECB believes a new TLTRO would only be necessary if the policy transmission mechanism is hampered
- One anonymous official says a third TLTRO would help banks avoid a cliff edge in 2020 (when the second TLTRO series comes to an end)
- Source TradeTheNews.com

dc CB 17:39 GMT November 2, 2018
Elections

Ahh The Solution to the 2020 Problem>...........

Associated Press•November 2, 2018

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Washington, D.C., City Council is preparing to vote on a bill to lower the voting age to 16 for all elections, both local and federal.
WTOP-FM reports the bill won 3-0 approval in the Judiciary and Public Safety committee Thursday and will get a final vote before the full council this month.
The 26th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution guarantees citizens 18 and older the right to vote, but scholars have said it doesn't prevent a state, or in this case, the nation's capital, from setting a lower age.
Council member Charles Allen says his bill will "enfranchise the District's young people and bring their voices into the political process."

GVI Trader john 17:38 GMT November 2, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 2 November 2018

10-yr 3.201%
DJ -230

Risk Off (equities)
Risk On (bonds) ??

Mtl JP 17:36 GMT November 2, 2018
Winners and Losers

Winners and Losers
---------------------
Taking on Goldman Sachs and the New York Fed: A whistleblower tells her story

Segarra sat down with MarketWatch to discuss what she thinks should be done to make the U.S. financial system safer and her new book “Noncompliant A Lone Whistleblower Exposes the Giants of Wall Street.”

GVI Trader john 17:25 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:


Baker Hughes Rig Count


NEWS ALERT
U.S.
Total: 1067 vs. 1068 (-1) prev.
Oil: 874 vs. 875 (-1) prev.
Canada: n/a vs. 200 () prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Mtl JP 17:19 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

I am inclined to think the bigger gratitude than to the saudis is due to Iran/Putin for not having either set saudi's fields on fire // blocked hormuz yet

Livingston nh 17:12 GMT November 2, 2018
Elections

SPX is into the top of WEDS gap open BUT nobody wants to get in Front of a Monday type reversal // it's down on talk and AAPL bashing -- 10 yr Treasury was just at 3.19 so no panic yet // re elections - Trump had short coattails so the House may lose some Repubs but a takeover is still unlikely

dc CB 17:00 GMT November 2, 2018
Elections

Stage 3
TINA - there is no alt ---After The Boffo Unemp Number this morn, no Other Way to leave a bad feeling in the voter's subcrania than an OVER 600Pt Drop in the Dow.
Watch 2:30 to 4PM ----Esp 3:30
YM(dow futures) The DOW - the ony number that Counts on the NUZ (graphic at 7)

Battle of the Billionaires - The Last Weekend. :)))))

dc CB 16:52 GMT November 2, 2018
Elections

The Wall Street Journal's Kim Strassel is at it again. In a Thursday Op-Ed, she describes how Democrats, over the course of six weeks, turned a "blue wave" of momentum into an absurd circus over Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh - tainting all of the 2020 Democratic presidential hopefuls except Joe Biden.

"Democrats obliterated their own breaker in the space of two weeks with the ambush of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh," Strassel writes, displaying some of the "vilest political tactics ever seen in Washington, with no regard for who or what they damaged or destroyed along the way."

And despite support for insurgent Democratic candidates such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Andrew Gillum sweeping voters off their feet during primaries, Democrats have been running "candidates with conservative credentials," or "candidates who can't run fast enough from liberal positions."

And at the end of the day, no matter how midterms turn out - "save for Joe Biden, every current leading contender for the Democratic nomination either was a ringleader of the Kavanaugh spectacle (Sens. Cory “Spartacus” Booker and Kamala Harris) or is a progressive icon (Ms. Warren, Mr. Sanders, Kirsten Gillibrand)."

Democrats Still Losers After Kavanaugh Debacle: WSJ

GVI 16:51 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

White House Econ Adviser Kudlow: confirms no massive movement between US and China on trade - CNBC interview - Have not seen any new proposals out of China - Source TradeTheNews.com

dc CB 16:47 GMT November 2, 2018
Braking NUZ
Reply   
Expect more Fake News Algo triggering, once or twice daily.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
It seems Bloomberg's sources are 'fake' as Larry Kudlow confirms to CNBC that the President did not ask the cabinet to draw up any trade deal with China and that there has been no responses from China on trade.

"...there is no massive movement between US and China on trade..."

ZeroHedge

haifa ac 16:41 GMT November 2, 2018
Elections
Reply   
looks like the market decided to ignore Nov-6.
now we are looking at the shape of the quarterly chasrts
some of them are so stretched--it is ridiculous
IF TINA (there is no alternatives) goes away-- expect some volatility galore!

GVI Trader john 16:05 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: EZ Final Manufacturing PMIs Revised Down Slightly For October 2018

From GVI Earlier...

Not much new in the revised EZ PMIs. I like to look at the combined EZ mfg figure (black line). Should this slowdown start to impact upcoming ECB decisions? Remember a sub-50 reading denotes contraction. President Draghi often mentions the PMis.

ALSO

One final mfg PMI observation. REVISED Italian October PMI fell farther than expected to 49.0 from 49.7 (flash estimate). Readings below "50" indicate economic contraction. The Final October EZ as a whole reading was revised to 52.0 vs the flash 52.1. It peaked recently at 60.6 in December 2107.

GVI Trader john 16:01 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: EZ Final Manufacturing PMIs Revised Down Slightly For October 2018

How bad off is the EZ?

Repeat of earlier post today

EZ October 2018 final Manufacturing PMIs. Slight revisions down.



BREAKING NEWS: EZ Final Manufacturing PMIs Revised Down Slightly For October 2018

Belgrade Knez 15:59 GMT November 2, 2018
Oprah got lighter today

haifa ac 15:52 GMT 11/02/2018 - My Profile
"who care about few millions!"
I don't know about you, but every time I lose a few millions
--it hurts.

I don't even blink!

haifa ac 15:52 GMT November 2, 2018
Oprah got lighter today

"who care about few millions!"
I don't know about you, but every time I lose a few millions
--it hurts.

GVI 15:52 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Govt official: Saudi Arabia has been very helpful keeping oil market adequately supplied amid US sanctions on Iran exports - press - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI 15:49 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Atlanta Fed cuts Q4 GDP forecast to 2.9% from 3.0% prior - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader john 15:48 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

TLTRO= Targeted Long Term Repo Operation. ECB would provide more liquidity to banks. Normally banks can raise funds in the money markets. This amounts to a special liquidity injection and is an indication of weakness in the banking system...

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:43 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

EURUSD took a hit on this

11:42 (EU) ECB said to be mulling a new TLTRO series - press
- Source TradeTheNews.com

PAR 15:39 GMT November 2, 2018
EURUSD
Reply   
Add to long at 1.1410 . Stop at 1.1360. Target 1.1550

Belgrade Knez 15:33 GMT November 2, 2018
Oprah got ligher today

haifa ac 15:26 GMT 11/02/2018 - My Profile
by a few millions

when you have few hundred millions, who care about few millions!

haifa ac 15:26 GMT November 2, 2018
Oprah got lighter today
Reply   
by a few millions

WTW

GVI 15:17 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

New York Fed Nowcast: raises Q4 forecast to 2.6% from 2.5% prior - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI 15:14 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Northern Ireland DUP Leader Foster: I hope we're close to an agreement - Source TradeTheNews.com

dc CB 14:33 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:



fill er up before U vote on Tuesday. :)))))

Mtl JP 14:29 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Pompeo yakking : the 8 exemptions granting counties continued abeit reduced oil purchases from iran will be temporary
-
of course... have to make sure crude does not go to $400 next week *,,*

GVI Trader john 14:02 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Factory Orders September 2018




ALERT
+0.70% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +2.30% (r )prev. rev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer



GVI 13:42 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

White House Chief Economist Hassett: won't comment on whether China trade draft is being prepared - Source TradeTheNews.com

Mtl JP 13:39 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

USDCAD 1.31
I am biased:
selling 1.31 and 1.3150

Mtl JP 13:28 GMT November 2, 2018
NFP

besides maybe "investment managers" none of the other ones you mention need a reminder , except maybe "In the Circle" re-assurance just to be cordially nice

Livingston nh 13:20 GMT November 2, 2018
NFP

jp - benefit of insurance companies, banks, investment managers et al -- so nobody gets surprised

Mtl JP 13:17 GMT November 2, 2018
NFP

nh john is on record calling on the FED to pause "before it is too late"
for whose benefit should the Fed "confirm steady rate hikes" ?

GVI Forex Blog 13:14 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Employment Data Solid In October 2018
Reply   
U.S. Monthly Employment.

October 2018 U.S. payroll employment beats street estimates. Dowward September Revision. Average Hourly Earnings 0.2% (3.10% y/y)


Click on chart for more than 10-yr history

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Employment Data Solid In October 2018

Livingston nh 13:10 GMT November 2, 2018
NFP

Jobs Plug FACTOR 246k -- 2 yr yield still not pricing in a Dec Hike (Hope is not a Plan) -- Biggest risk is continued growth in Health Care (GDP and now NFP)

Fed next week should confirm steady rate hikes

GVI Forex Blog 13:09 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: Canada Employment Data Beat in October 2018
Reply   
Canada Jobs: Beat expectations, full-time employment up in October 2018.

BREAKING NEWS: Canada Employment Data Beat in October 2018

Mtl JP 13:05 GMT November 2, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 2 November 2018

GBP 1.30 (again)
doomdoom doomdoom...

GVI Trader john 12:47 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. (USD bn) & Canada (CAD bn) Trade September 2018



ALERT
-54.0b vs. -52.8b exp. vs. -53.2b (r -53.3b) prev.
Canada Trade C$ bln
-0.40 vs. +0.20 exp. vs. -0.10 (r -0.20 )prev.

U.S. Balance on Goods and Services

Canadian Trade Balance


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Amman wfakhoury 12:41 GMT November 2, 2018
EURUSD NFP movement

scalp buy around 11410
___
first 14 pips
sell again to 11410

Amman wfakhoury 12:37 GMT November 2, 2018
EURUSD NFP movement

any decline below 11442 will return to it
-------------------------
scalp buy around 11410

GVI Trader john 12:34 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Canada EMPLOYMENT October 2018



NEWS ALERT

Jobs: +11.2 vs. +10.0K exp. vs. +63.3K prev.
Full-Time +33.9 vs. n/a exp. vs. +40.4 exp
Rate: 5.90% vs. 5.90% exp. vs. 5.90% prev.



RELEASE: StatCan Monthly Employment Report





TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trader john 12:33 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Employment October 2018







ALERT

NFP Jobs:
+250K vs. +190K exp. vs. +134K (r +118K) prev.
Rate: 3.70% vs. 3.70% exp. vs. 3.70% prev.

Avg earnings: +0.20% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.
BLS: Employment Situation Summary


TTN: Live News Special Offer


london red 12:31 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

big wages highest for a long time but its how usd reacts. if shud climb but if cannot and gets back to pre data level, it will weaken.

GVI Forex 12:17 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

08:08 CNBC's Javers: told that report President directing cabinet to draft China trade deal is not true; two sides remain far apart - TV

A senior administration official tells me that the report president Trump is ready to cut a trade deal with China is not true. “There is a long way to go” on negotiations, the official said.

**Reminder: Overnight reports circulated that US President Trump asked cabinet to draft possible China trade deal- China Foreign Ministry did note that President Xi, Trump phone conversation was quite positive; Two heads of state think they should enhance trade relations

**Reminder - On Nov 1st China Pres Xi was reported to say that President Trump and I want to expand China-US trade cooperation; US-China economic teams should strengthen their contacts. Did not want to see negative effects from trade relations> Xi was willing to meeting with Pres Trump at the G20 - On Nov 1st S President Trump stated that China President Xi wanted to make 'fair' trade deal; would make the 'right' deal with China

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:17 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

08:08 CNBC's Javers: told that report President directing cabinet to draft China trade deal is not true; two sides remain far apart - TV

A senior administration official tells me that the report president Trump is ready to cut a trade deal with China is not true. “There is a long way to go” on negotiations, the official said.

**Reminder: Overnight reports circulated that US President Trump asked cabinet to draft possible China trade deal- China Foreign Ministry did note that President Xi, Trump phone conversation was quite positive; Two heads of state think they should enhance trade relations

**Reminder - On Nov 1st China Pres Xi was reported to say that President Trump and I want to expand China-US trade cooperation; US-China economic teams should strengthen their contacts. Did not want to see negative effects from trade relations> Xi was willing to meeting with Pres Trump at the G20 - On Nov 1st S President Trump stated that China President Xi wanted to make 'fair' trade deal; would make the 'right' deal with China

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Livingston nh 12:09 GMT November 2, 2018
NFP
Reply   
May just be a rounding error BUT unemployment rate could tick down to 3.6% (there were BIG revisions to Summer months NFP last time) -- usually a rate at current levels starts to rise as the marginal population seeks jobs -- The weekly Claims have stayed remarkably low and as a % of workforce continue to drop -- AHE at 0.3% m/m is consistent w/ this trend despite higher income retirement trend

10 yr yields back above 3.25 would be an indication of confidence returning (RATES RATES RATES)

GVI Trader john 12:08 GMT November 2, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 2 November 2018

DJ +330
10s 3.163%

setting up for Jobs data?

GVI Trader john 11:45 GMT November 2, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 2 November 2018

Odds are the focus on U.S. jobs data today once again will be on Average Hourly Earnings. They are seen:
mo/mo +0.20% vs. +0.30%
yr/yr +3.10% vs. +2.80%

How can these two be consistent? Its because of a base level effect from a year ago data. The market should be well aware of this anomaly, since this has been widely reported. Traders SHOULD look at both readings accordingly. Usually the latest data are the most important.

Amman wfakhoury 11:40 GMT November 2, 2018
EURUSD NFP movement
Reply   
EURUSD into uptrend 11475 confirmed ..and 11507 later.
any decline below 11440 will return to it ..unless price closed below 11395..if so sell for deep drop.

The only one in the world who confirms the next level and every hour movement

GVI 11:25 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Govt spokesperson: Negotiations continue; have put forward proposals on Northern Ireland

- Would be unacceptable for Northern Ireland to be in a separate customs arrangement from the rest of the UK

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:22 GMT November 2, 2018
AT Rubber Band Trading System
Reply   
Subscribe to the Amazing Trader and get access to our highly regarded AT Rubber band Trading System Course, where you will see how to put yourself in control with a goal to trade with the odds on your side.

The Amazing Trader

Livingston nh 11:21 GMT November 2, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 2 November 2018

Maybe Treasury yields will get a boost from the NFP folks still watching AHE for Philips Curve // But ISM comments and prices paid plus cost passthru comments from chemical to ketchup company earnings reports say inflation will come from earnings pressures not wages
--
AAPL still king of sizzle over steak


PAR 11:04 GMT November 2, 2018
EURUSD
Reply   
Long at 1.1450 . Target 1.1550 .

GVI Trader john 10:55 GMT November 2, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 2 November 2018

Early Friday
DJ +218
10s 3.165%

GVI Forex Blog 09:44 GMT November 2, 2018
Breaking News: U.K. Construction PMI Beats in October 2018
Reply   
U.K. October 2018 Construction PMI beats estimates. This is more of a domestic measure.

U.K. Construction PMI

Breaking News: U.K. Construction PMI Beats in October 2018

GVI Trader john 09:37 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Construction PMI October 2018




-- NEWS ALERT --

53.2 vs. 51.9 exp. vs. 52.1 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trader john 09:13 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: EZ Final Manufacturing PMIs Revised Down Slightly For October 2018

In the PMI chart below note particularly the broad downward direction for the EZ data.

GVI Forex Blog 09:11 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: EZ Final Manufacturing PMIs Revised Down Slightly For October 2018
Reply   
EZ October 2018 final Manufacturing PMIs. Slight revisions down.



BREAKING NEWS: EZ Final Manufacturing PMIs Revised Down Slightly For October 2018

GVI Trader john 09:01 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

EZ Final Mfg PMIs revised to a touch lower.

GVI Trader john 09:00 GMT November 2, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

EZ Final Manufacturing PMIs October 2018





ALERT
EZ
mfg: 52.0 vs. 52.1 exp. vs. 52.1 flash
Germany
mfg: 52.2 vs. 52.3 exp. vs. 52.3 flash
France
mfg 51.2 vs. 51.2 exp. vs. 51.2 flash



Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trader john 08:53 GMT November 2, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 2 November 2018

For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:
NEGATIVE
Spot EURUSD: 1.1435
Pivot Point: 1.1378

This Week: 1.1302-1.1461
Fri: 1.1391-1.1443
Thu: 1.1307-1.1424
Wed: 1.1302-1.1360
Tue: 1.1341-1.1388
Mon: 1.1361-1.1461

20-day avg: 1.1469
50-day avg: 1.1574
100-day avg: 1.1592
200-day avg: 1.1868

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Dec 19: 76% (78%).

10-yr Bonds
US: 3.172% +2.8%
DE: 0.433% +2.7
GB: 1.492% +3.3
JP: 0.129% +0.3

DAX: +156
Implied Open
DJ: +205
SP: +19.9



See the Amazing Trader Live!

GVI Forex Blog 08:36 GMT November 2, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 2 November 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Fri 2 Nov 2018
A All Day Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:30 US/CA- Employment/Trade

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Sun 4 Nov 2018
CA/US- Clocks Move Forward One Hour
Mon 5 Nov 2018
AA All Day Service PMIs
Tue 6 Nov 2018
AA 04:30 AU- Reserve Bank Of Australia decision
Wed 7 Nov 2018
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 8 Nov 2018
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 19:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Fri 9 Nov 2018
AA 09:30 GB- GDP
AA 09:30 GB- Industrial/Mfg Output
AA 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Friday Trading Checklist For 2 November 2018

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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