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Forex Forum Archive for 11/19/2018

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GVI Trader john 21:20 GMT November 19, 2018
Users tell us why you need the Amazing Trader

Users tell us why you need the Amazing Trader:

They say it tells you whether you should be a buyer or seller, what levels the market is targeting, where to place your stop and where to take profits.

Contact me by EMAIL for your free trial or to subscribe with special pre-holiday pricing.

Regards,

Jay Meisler

GVI Trader john 21:20 GMT November 19, 2018
Tuesday Trading Highlights 20 November 2018

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GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:
POSITIVE
Spot EURUSD: 1.1464
Pivot Point: 1.1438

This Week: 1.1394-1.1465

Mon: 1.1394-1.1465

Fri: 1.1263-1.1420
Thu: 1.1271-1.1362
Wed: 1.1263-1.1347
Tue: 1.1216-1.1258


20-day avg: 1.1375
50-day avg: 1.1511
100-day avg: 1.1562
200-day avg: 1.1809

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Dec 19: 70% (72%).

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 21:04 GMT November 19, 2018
Users tell us why you need the Amazing Trader
Reply   

Users tell us why you need the Amazing Trader:

They say it tells you whether you should be a buyer or seller, what levels the market is targeting, where to place your stop and where to take profits.

Contact me by EMAIL for your free trial or to subscribe with special pre-holiday pricing.

Regards,

Jay Meisler

Livingston nh 20:53 GMT November 19, 2018
Not a normal week

There are a lot of folks who are going to be VERY VERY WRONG -- the media now is featuring OW&B folks who think the BEAR is loose in STOX (but for a lot of different reasons) and Buy the Dips is out of fashion -- the interest rate crowd is ignoring one of the hoariest of maxims i.e., "Don't Fight the FED" (it's different this time???) // To be fair, the Powell Fed is trying to exit the Money Swamp w/o the "we know best ideological wisdom" of its immediate predecessors that brought us here so policy is a bit ad hoc (it would be useful to dump the "data dependent" mantra)

Over the next 3 weeks the Treasury Market needs to adjust quickly because the FED will hike and Santa will probably show up w/STOX in SOX -- the USD will benefit because of RATES RATES RATES

The Risk is sub 56 WTI - this will catch the Fed's eye and more important than the Iran "almost" sanctions is the MBS drama -- he made powerful enemies w/ his Hotel Hostages and he is now at risk because he overplayed his hand in Turkey -- he is cornered, unable to protect his underlings, so he may not go quietly

GVI Trader john 20:40 GMT November 19, 2018
Monday Trading Strategy 19 November 2018

Just checking the odds on a 25 bp Fed rate on December 19. The have eared to 70%. I believe I have seen the odds on a hike at this meeting as high as 90% about a month ago. These odds are a useful measure of market sentiment and are something the FOMC watches. Declining odds on a Fed rate for a meeting just one month away is a weight on the USD.

GVI Forex Blog 20:07 GMT November 19, 2018
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 20 November 2018
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 20 November 2018

dc CB 19:37 GMT November 19, 2018
Not a normal week



treas futures start rolling to March---out of Dec next week
Shorts no confidence in more "hikes"?????
Run away, run away

dc CB 19:28 GMT November 19, 2018
Not a normal week

FYI
Nov 30---is another large QT day
$25bln or so
click on TNotes and Bonds tab

Super cold on Thanksgiving for Mid Atlantic and NE --- Maryland in the upper 20s at best.
NatGas going wacko. American weather models that foresaw a Warm Nov/Dec/Jan really screwed NatGas Tading firms.

SOMA

GVI Trader john 19:02 GMT November 19, 2018
Monday Trading Strategy 19 November 2018

DJ -494
10-yr 3.059%

GVI Forex Blog 18:54 GMT November 19, 2018
Tuesday Trading Highlights 20 November 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 20 Nov 2018
A 13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
Wed 21 Nov 2018
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 13:30 US- Durable Goods
A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 15:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude
Thu 22 Nov 2018
AA US Holiday
Fri 23 Nov 2018
AA JP- Holiday
AA All Day Flash PMIs
A 13:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales


Tuesday Trading Highlights 20 November 2018

GVI 17:06 GMT November 19, 2018
Breaking News

Ireland PM Varadkar: UK should not be bullied into a second Brexit referendum - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader john 17:01 GMT November 19, 2018
Monday Trading Strategy 19 November 2018

DJ -401 or -1.51%
10s 3.070%
CO $56.55
NAS -181 or -2.52%

GVI 16:55 GMT November 19, 2018
Breaking News

Northern Ireland DUP Leader Foster: a really bad Brexit withdrawal deal would lock us into the EU with no way out; there's time to work for a better agreement - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI 16:19 GMT November 19, 2018
Breaking News

Fed's Williams (moderate, voter): US economy is doing very well; unemployment is low - comments in NYC - Source TradeTheNews.com

London GP 16:06 GMT November 19, 2018
Breaking News

Wfak, let us know if your call changes.

NY JM 15:46 GMT November 19, 2018
Monday Trading Strategy 19 November 2018

Normally risk off = higher USD on flight to safety

UK JY 15:35 GMT November 19, 2018
Monday Trading Strategy 19 November 2018

Risk off = weaker stocks = lower yields = weaker dollar

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:32 GMT November 19, 2018
Amazing Trader Uodate

EURUSD 1.1461

Posted last bight on the GVI Forex/Amazing Trader Forum

AT Rubber Band Trading System
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 21:43 GMT 11/18/2018 - My Profile
EURUSD resistance 1.1420/46/57/86/99

The Amazing Trader

GVI Trader john 15:28 GMT November 19, 2018
Monday Trading Strategy 19 November 2018

10s 3.067%
DJ -238
CO 56.18
Risk-Off

GVI Trader john 15:02 GMT November 19, 2018
Breaking News

More weak news from the housing sector.

GVI Trader john 15:02 GMT November 19, 2018
Breaking News

U.S. NAHB Index Oct 2018



NEWS ALERT
60.0 vs. 67.0 exp. vs. 68.0 (r) prev.

RELEASE: NAHB Index


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Amman wfakhoury 14:54 GMT November 19, 2018
GBPUSD 12805

if closed above 12880 ..then trend will be changed ..will buy...
but now 12820 is the consolidation level ..price will reach again.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:46 GMT November 19, 2018
Amazing Trader Uodate

For those trading, it has been EURGBP creating the roller coaster in GBPUSD with EURUSD following with lags on both sides.

The Amazing Trader gave the sign of a bounce in the cross, which came close to 1st target at ,8913.

This is the hand we are dealt today and the Amazing Trader, as always, is invaluable in this market.

Join us now

Dubai Ma 13:57 GMT November 19, 2018
GBPUSD 12805

Amman Fakhoury. Is your gbpusd signal still valid? What happens if there is a close above 1.2880. Do you exit your short?

Livingston nh 13:03 GMT November 19, 2018
Monday Trading Strategy 19 November 2018

Daily Dose of Brexit -- M. Barnier's gracious offer of an extension to 2022 is a sign that EU is concerned that UK will '"crash" - hoping that a longer transition will result in a change of heart // More TIME in any negotiation is usually futile when the Deal Breakers are so plain -- this offer is being considered as a positive by some in the UK and EU as a welcome ROAD BUILDING exercise as they desperately search for a CAN

Amman wfakhoury 12:25 GMT November 19, 2018
GBPUSD 12805

any rise above 12820 will return to it unless it closed above 12880

GVI Trader john 12:20 GMT November 19, 2018
Monday Trading Strategy 19 November 2018

10s 3.085%
DJ -39
CO 56.64

Mild Risk -Off

Amman wfakhoury 12:20 GMT November 19, 2018
GBPUSD 12805
Reply   
12805 is coming soon

Amman wfakhoury 12:14 GMT November 19, 2018
GBPUSD 12780 and 12730
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 08:54 GMT November 16, 2018
GBPUSD 12780 and 12730: Reply
GBPUSD will visit again 12780 then 12730 as it keeps below 12880

HK [email protected] 12:11 GMT November 19, 2018
Breaking News

.
Too much a spirit of bearish USD on the on the net probably contributed at least to non-bullish USD today. May even cause stronger USD.

Amman wfakhoury 12:10 GMT November 19, 2018
Breaking News

one hour bar

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:06 GMT November 19, 2018
Breaking News

Amman, close above what time frame bar?

Amman wfakhoury 12:05 GMT November 19, 2018
Breaking News

just follow my previous signal
12785 will be returned as price did not closed above 12880.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:55 GMT November 19, 2018
Breaking News

Before someone comes on and asks if there is any news behind the GBP dip just now the answer is none we have seen but price action says otherwise. .

There is apparently EURGBP buying going on and price action shows you how the bids (in the case) back off when algos sense an order going through.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:00 GMT November 19, 2018
Amazing Trader Uodate
Reply   
EURUSD 1,1418

Trading according to our program strategy overnight, held above 1.1391 Amazing Trader support and then ran stops above 1.1421

Now double (near triple) top intra-day at 1.1429 and dependent on 1.1412-15 support holding (includes an intra-day trendline) to keep the bid. Below it put 1,1400-03 back in play.

Join us now

GVI Trader john 10:45 GMT November 19, 2018
Monday Trading Strategy 19 November 2018


For AT Trading

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GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:
Neutral
Spot EURUSD: 1.1421
Pivot Point: 1.1327

Last Week: 1.1216-1.1420
Mon: 1.1394-1.1429

Fri: 1.1263-1.1420
Thu: 1.1271-1.1362
Wed: 1.1263-1.1347
Tue: 1.1216-1.1258


20-day avg: 1.1375
50-day avg: 1.1514
100-day avg: 1.1564
200-day avg: 1.1813

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Dec 19: 72% (74%).

10-yr Bonds
US: 3.087% -0.3bp
DE: 0.383% +1.7
GB: 1.407% -1.9
JP: 0.095% -1.1

DAX: -3
Implied Open
DJ: -8
SP: +0.7



See the Amazing Trader Live!

GVI Forex Blog 10:02 GMT November 19, 2018
Monday Trading Strategy 19 November 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 19 Nov 2018
No Major Data
Tue 20 Nov 2018
A 13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
Wed 21 Nov 2018
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 13:30 US- Durable Goods
A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 15:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude
Thu 22 Nov 2018
AA US Holiday
Fri 23 Nov 2018
AA JP- Holiday
AA All Day Flash PMIs
A 13:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales


Monday Trading Strategy 19 November 2018

kl fs 09:44 GMT November 19, 2018
Not a normal week

seems like a good recipe for cable 1.27-1.30 range

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:37 GMT November 19, 2018
Not a normal week
Reply   
Wednesday is the biggest traveling day of the year in the US and e tended holidays as Friday is a holiday for many. This suggests a week that will be dominated by position adjustments rather than fresh positioning.

This also suggests diminishing liquidity as the week winds on, leaving the market vulnerable to news but one where it is hard to bet on strong follow through. Keep this in mind when trading.

PAR 08:57 GMT November 19, 2018
BREXIT
Reply   
May to stay in power as there is no alternative . Nobody wants to lose his job .

dc CB 03:15 GMT November 19, 2018
Braking NUZ
Reply   
US Elections (yup still goin')
The New New New Orwellian phrase ---- look for this is as 2020 is now on the front burner.
Georgia(state) Gov Results finalized. The loser:

"“The law, as it stands, says that he received an adequate number of votes to become the governor of Georgia,” Abrams began. “And I acknowledge the law as it stands. I am a lawyer by training and I have taken the constitutional oath to uphold the law. But we know sometimes the law does not do what it should and something being legal does not make it right.”

Tapper tried again, asking, “Is he the legitimate governor-elect of Georgia?”
Abrams replied, “He is the person who won the adequate number of votes to become the governor.”

Pointing out the fact that she wasn’t actually answering the question, Tapper pressed one more time. “You’re not using the word legitimate. Is he the legitimate governor-elect of Georgia?”

“He is the legal governor of Georgia,” Abrams repeated.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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