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Forex Forum Archive for 11/26/2018

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GVI 22:50 GMT November 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Brexiteers to back PM May plan if she says when she is quitting - Times

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Livingston nh 20:38 GMT November 26, 2018
Monday Trading Strategy 26 November 2018

Away from Europe - the USD grinds higher against MXN and pops against BRL -- Mexico may be the Turkey solution for US (maybe cheaper than a WALL) and Brazil gets a new sheriff, bracketed by two basket cases (Venezuela and Argentina) so maybe some foreign intervention in 2019 to the north (refugees/migrants)

Aussie poised to break below the rising 21 dma (crossing the 55 ema) -- MACD rolling over -- Finally?? back below 72

GVI Trader john 20:32 GMT November 26, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 27 November 2018

For AT Trading

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GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:
Neutral
Spot EURUSD: 1.1329
Pivot Point: 1.1346

Last Week: Mon: 1.1326-1.1384
Mon: 1.1326-1.1384

Fri: 1.1332-1.1421
Thu: 1.1364-1.1433
Wed: 1.1364-1.1425
Tue: 1.1358-1.1482

20-day avg: 1.1365
50-day avg: 1.1483
100-day avg: 1.1547
200-day avg: 1.1782

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Dec 19: 80% (76%).

GVI Forex Blog 20:13 GMT November 26, 2018
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 26 November 2018
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 26 November 2018

Livingston nh 19:09 GMT November 26, 2018
FED



TRY AGAIN

Livingston nh 19:07 GMT November 26, 2018
FED



Sorry CHART

Livingston nh 19:06 GMT November 26, 2018
FED
Reply   
A lot of commentary about the Fed "tightening" and the 'need' to pause -- here's a chart of the Fed Funds level and the 2 yr (we had an auction today) // tight is Funds above 2 yr - if we maintain a 60 bp spread into the next hike in December 2yr will be ~ 3.10 // The Fed will continue to hike until Funds exceed the 2 yr (perhaps this is the mythic neutral rate) so just follow the chart as the Fed chases higher

IMO The Fed might catch up next year at 3.75%

GVI Trader john 19:01 GMT November 26, 2018
Monday Trading Strategy 26 November 2018

DJ +258

CO 51.90

10s 3.072%

Equities off their HOD.
EURUSD and GBPUSD both looking heavy. Often a clear trend does not emerge until Wednesday.

GVI Forex 17:17 GMT November 26, 2018
BREXIT

UK parliament sets date for Brexit vote on Dec 11,

GVI Forex Blog 16:52 GMT November 26, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 27 November 2018
Reply   
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 27 Nov 2018
A 15:00 US- CB Cons Confidence
Wed 28 Nov 2018
A 13:30 US- GDP
A 15:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude
Thu 29 Nov 2018
A 09:00 DE- Employment
A 13:30 US- PCE Deflator
A 15:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
A 19:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
Fri 30 Nov 2018
A 07:00 DE- Retail Sales
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP


Tuesday Trading Checklist 27 November 2018

GVI Trader john 16:21 GMT November 26, 2018
BREXIT

nh- good points. She's closet Remainer.

Livingston nh 16:12 GMT November 26, 2018
BREXIT

John - EU rubber stamped their DEAL and gave it PM for delivery to Parliament -- the Referendum was a SOCIAL protest vote BUT the negotiators turned it into a ECONOMIC multi-interest fubar -- she got exactly what SHE was willing to take BUT none of the multi-interest sides are on board

It WASN'T about the Economy

GVI john 15:50 GMT November 26, 2018
BREXIT

I think PM May needs a stronger argument than this!

GVI 15:47 GMT November 26, 2018
BREXIT

PM May: reiterates there is no better Brexit deal available
- No one knows what would happen if Brexit deal is rejected

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader john 15:45 GMT November 26, 2018
Draghi

Interesting Draghi touts that inflation rising due to energy prices. Haven't prices tumbled over the past month or so? Also France is backing off on Macron's proposed gasoline tax hike after weekend riots.

GVI 15:10 GMT November 26, 2018
Draghi

- Seen considerable slowdown in world trade growth momentum
- Do not think Eurozone is heading towards recession >br>- Reiterates at current time we plan to end bond buying program in Dec
- Overall fiscal stance remains neutral to slightly expansionary
- Inflation has been going up because of energy prices
- Confident that inflation is converging toward the ECB target

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader john 14:55 GMT November 26, 2018
Monday Trading Strategy 26 November 2018

Risk On

DJ +224
10s 3.075%
CO $52.05

GVI 14:43 GMT November 26, 2018
BREXIT
Reply   
Parliament reportedly plans to vote on Brexit agreement week of Dec 10th - press - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader john 14:38 GMT November 26, 2018
Monday Trading Strategy 26 November 2018

As expected Draghi cautious on EZ economy, but so far saying nothing really new.

We continue to monitor equities. We often see buying on the NY open. Key is whether it follows through. DJ last +270.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:16 GMT November 26, 2018
Draghi

09:03 (EU) ECBís Draghi: Reiterates view that recent economic data has been weaker than expected; loss in momentum reflects weaker trade growth comments from EU parliament in Brussels -
Significant monetary policy stimulus is still needed, ECB continues to anticipate net asset purchases to end- ECB continues to anticipate net asset purchases to end

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex 14:02 GMT November 26, 2018
Draghi
Reply   
Monday, 26 Nov 2018
Board member:Mario Draghi
Event:Introductory statement by the President at the ECON Hearing of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.
Time:15:00 CET
Venue:European Parliament, Room PHS3C050, Brussels


Board member:Mario Draghi
Event:Introductory statement by the President in his capacity as ESRB Chair at ECON Hearing at the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.
Time:17:00 CET
Venue:European Parliament, Room PHS3C050, Brussels

GVI Trader john 13:33 GMT November 26, 2018
Monday Trading Strategy 26 November 2018

DJ +239
10s 3.059%
CO $51.34

Risk-On early Monday in pre-Open NY trade. Should be EURUSD positive if risk-on trading persists.

ECB's Draghi speaks shortly. Very recently he has been cautious about the EZ economy...

GVI 13:03 GMT November 26, 2018
Monday Trading Strategy 26 November 2018

Praet: the ECB may provide clarity on their reinvestment policy in December https://reut.rs/2KBHCKY

Praet: the ECB may provide clarity on their reinvestment policy in December --Reuters

Mtl JP 11:52 GMT November 26, 2018
Monday Trading Strategy 26 November 2018

Winners and Losers
----------------------
Goldman Models Impact of Rate-Shock Scenarios on Markets

Surprise hikes would hurt stocks, boost yields and dollar
Goldman model shows recession risk has increased over 2018

GVI Trader john 11:46 GMT November 26, 2018
Monday Trading Strategy 26 November 2018

DJ +240
3.061%
CO $50.88

GVI Jay 11:11 GMT November 26, 2018
Brexit

No date yet for the vote, but talk is for mid-December, around December 10-12.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:39 GMT November 26, 2018
Amazing Trader Update
Reply   


Look at this EURUSD chart for the power of the Amazing Trader.

Pattern (rising red lines) signaled move to the upside

Failure at the blue resistance line capped the upside

Amazing Trader Reviews

Livingston nh 10:19 GMT November 26, 2018
Monday Trading Strategy 26 November 2018

1. Before December's update it may be too early for Draghi to expand his headwind concerns and EUR is riding the Italian budget "offer" -- but Winter is coming

2. With the Brexit Finish Line in sight GBP seems to have found its footing - if markets fear uncertainty the weekend seems to have brought a simple current choice for investors - "Commons YES or NO"

YES is "Same old Same old" but NO is expected -- the lack of volatility so far indicates that little concern is expressed for the TOTAL uncertainty following a NO -- at the end of a long race Deep Snow usually appears just before the Finish Line so its rarely an easy trip

3. Powell speaks and like his ECB counterpart he awaits December update -- see if he tries to rein in the "irrational exuberance" for a 2019 pause before it gets out of control - yields need to pop to support the STOX rally

hk pw 10:00 GMT November 26, 2018
Brexit
Reply   
When does UK parliament vote on brexit?

GVI Trader john 09:45 GMT November 26, 2018
Monday Trading Strategy 26 November 2018

For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:
Neutral
Spot EURUSD: 1.1380
Pivot Point: 1.1361

Last Week: 1.1332-1.1472
Mon: 1.1326-1.1382

Fri: 1.1332-1.1421
Thu: 1.1364-1.1433
Wed: 1.1364-1.1425
Tue: 1.1358-1.1482

20-day avg: 1.1368
50-day avg: 1.1490
100-day avg: 1.1551
200-day avg: 1.1787

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Dec 19: 76% (76%).

10-yr Bonds
US: 3.059% +1.8bp
DE: 0.359% 0.0
GB: 1.393% +0.9
JP: 0.089% -0.7

DAX: +144
Implied Open
DJ: +270
SP: +39.0



See the Amazing Trader Live!

GVI Forex Blog 09:11 GMT November 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: German IFO Survey Weaker In November 2018
Reply   
Headline Novemder IFO worse vs. forecasts and weaker mo/mo.

German IFO from April 2018 were changed to include services. Earlier data are not available.

BREAKING NEWS: German IFO Survey Weaker In November 2018

GVI Trader john 09:04 GMT November 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Headline Ifo Weaker.

GVI Trader john 09:03 GMT November 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

BREAKING NEWS: German IFO Survey November 2018



NEWS ALERT

Climate: 102.0 vs. 102.3 exp. vs. 102.8 prev.
Current: 105.4 vs. 105.3 exp. vs. 105.9 (r. 106.1) prev.
Expectations: 98.7 vs. 99.2 exp. vs. 99.8 prev.


IFO Climate Survey



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 08:57 GMT November 26, 2018
Monday Trading Strategy 26 November 2018
Reply   

AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 26 Nov 2018
AA 09:00 DE- IFO Climate
Tue 27 Nov 2018
A 15:00 US- CB Cons Confidence
Wed 28 Nov 2018
A 13:30 US- GDP
A 15:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude
Thu 29 Nov 2018
A 09:00 DE- Employment
A 13:30 US- PCE Deflator
A 15:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
A 19:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
Fri 30 Nov 2018
A 07:00 DE- Retail Sales
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP


Monday Trading Strategy 26 November 2018

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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