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Forex Forum Archive for 11/29/2018

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Mtl JP 22:58 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

nh // I d like to think gracious - not going to see Vlad (officially) and dumping on cohen ... in good mood at least at the beginning

Pres Trump is a gift that keeps on giving (if nothing else entertainment value)

dc CB 21:25 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

red, next stop-bounce potential is 42.89.

GVI Trader john 21:25 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

Impressive that equities held onto their sharp gains Thursday from Wednesday. Friday is End of month. G20 Friday and Saturday in Buenos Aires.

GVI Trader john 21:23 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

Late Thursday DJ -27
10s 3.034%
CO $51.45

Mixed Risk

london red 21:03 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

ok thx bud. for me it show me the money otherwise still more to do on downside.

dc CB 20:48 GMT November 29, 2018
Friday Trading Strategy For 30 November 2018

25Bln not rolling Treas --- toms QT

SOMA - NYFED

dc CB 20:33 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

red,
not calling it. Just out.
nh,
Dumb and Dumber--the sit on hands trade. never imagined this market wud Trend for 2 months.

The NatGas problem: "ya can't get it Here from There - old New Englander quip --- Maine/New Hampshire/Vermont/Mass/Conn/NewYork Upstate

Natural Gas Prices Fall Below Zero In Texas

GVI Trader john 20:27 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:
Neutral
Spot EURUSD: 1.1383
Pivot Point: 1.1351

This Week: 1.1267-1.1398
Thu: 1.1348-1.1401
Wed: 1.1267-1.1387
Tue: 1.1277-1.1344
Mon: 1.1326-1.1384

Fri: 1.1332-1.1421

20-day avg: 1.1364
50-day avg: 1.1462
100-day avg: 1.1536
200-day avg: 1.1768

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Dec 19: 80% (82%).

Livingston nh 20:26 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

By this time tomorrow we'll know which Donald Trump showed up in Argentina - the gracious or disdainful (I hope they brought his meds)

GVI Forex Blog 20:12 GMT November 29, 2018
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 29 November 2018
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 29 November 2018

Livingston nh 19:40 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Yeah John, it's the ultimate rear view mirror

london red 19:34 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

dc are u calling it here? or just a blip within a continued downtrend? i see sup by 47 bucks where can get a multiday rally at least. fwiw wti done well off the lows today but not yet abv yest high.

london red 19:31 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

s&p overcome 2746 now faces key battle at 200dma (2761) and bulls will want to avoid crossing dwn thru by 50dma (2773). if we are in a bear market, we will trade up to this cross area and then sellers will come in strongly. if mkt closes abv these and saves the cross, then u can expect a strong move higher to 2810/15 v quickly.

GVI Trader john 19:29 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

nh- Maybe they haven't figured out what a neutral rate is yet? Sounds like a profound idea, but...

GVI Forex Blog 19:27 GMT November 29, 2018
Friday Trading Strategy For 30 November 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Fri 30 Nov 2018
A 07:00 DE- Retail Sales
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP


GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 3 Dec 2018
A All Day Final Mfg PMIs
Tue 4 Dec 2018
A 04:30 AU- Reserve Bank Decision
Wed 5 Dec 2018
A All Day Final SVC PMIs
A 04:30 AU- CPI
A 13:15 US- ADP Jobs
A 13:30 US- Productivity
A 15:30 US- EIA Crude
B 19:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 6 Dec 2018
AA 12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 7 Dec 2018
A 10:00 EZ- GDP
AA 13:30 US- Employment/Trade
A 15:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


Friday Trading Strategy For 30 November 2018

Livingston nh 19:25 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

But John what changed? the neutral rate didn't even get a nod in the Minutes or the Statement

GVI Trader john 19:23 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

U.S. equities up post-Minutes.

GVI Trader john 19:12 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Yesterday Chair Powell stole the thunder from the Minutes today. Not much new here to chew on.

GVI 19:05 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

FOMC MINUTES FROM NOV 8TH MEETING: MINUTES SIGNAL ANOTHER RATE INCREASE 'FAIRLY SOON'

- Couple policymakers said current policy may be near its neutral level and further hikes could unduly slow the economy

- A few officials saw rising uncertainty in economic outlook

- Future policy statements to emphasize importance of incoming data

- Agreed risks to economic outlook appeared roughly balanced

- Fed officials divided on potential for further increase in labor force participation

- Some officials saw stronger dollar posing a downside risk to domestic growth and inflation

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Livingston nh 18:50 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

A few Minutes to 'til the MINUTES -- we will see how much of a Message Massage has been applied (compare the Statement to the Minutes) and perhaps a clue as to why R* has gone from far away to just below // Stox turmoil, Presidential tweets, hmmm is there now a Powell Put

GVI 18:19 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Reportedly MPs to propose amendment that would block PM May's Brexit deal - UK press

- Source TradeTheNews.com

dc CB 18:05 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

"crude has a date with 49.80"

Kissed and away

Livingston nh 16:45 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

sja - I was sure the AUD would drop back to the bottom of the range (WRONG) - I'm willing to wait until some of the TRADE/commodity news runs its course // maybe above 7350 but 21 dma crossed above 55ema and Powell was the last straw

Expect a rate cut by RBA next year

Bali Sja 16:36 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

Nh, you gonna short audusd again here? Or wait higher maybe 7380-7420?

Bali Sja 16:35 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

Wide, compensate for smaller size

GVI Forex 16:23 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

11:21 (CN) US and China reportedly considering deal to de-escalate trade disputes; likely would focus on delaying US tariffs in return for China policy modifications- press

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Memphis Charles 16:23 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

Helluva wide stop for scalping...

Livingston nh 16:08 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

2/10 spread on Treasurys 21/22 - 2's just above 1/4 point above Dec hike -- see if FED Minutes support the dovish R*

GVI 15:42 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

White House Adviser Navarro reportedly back on guest list for Trump-Xi dinner meeting - Chinese press - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader john 15:40 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Dip in Nat Gas triggered a decline in CO => USDCAD decline. USDCAD improved as Crude recovered.

GVI Trader john 15:32 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

EIA U.S. Natural Gas

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
(BCF) -59 vs: -80 expected

TTN: Live News Special Offer


Bali Sja 15:19 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

Trying some scalp, sold cable 12776, stop 12839, target open

GVI Trader john 15:17 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

DJ -54
CO 51.05
10s 3.023%

Mixed Risk Profile

GVI Forex Blog 15:11 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Pending Homes Sales Weaker in Octoberber 2018
Reply   
October 2018 Pending Homes Sales much weaker than expected.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Pending Homes Sales Weaker in Octoberber 2018

GVI Trader john 15:02 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Weak housing data.

GVI Trader john 15:00 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Pending Homes Sales October, 2018



ALERT
-2.60% vs. +0.60% exp. vs. +0.05% (r +0.7%) prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trader john 14:56 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

Pending Homes see +0.60% vs +0.50% m/m

UK JY 14:54 GMT November 29, 2018
Reasons for ranges and caution into the weekend
Reply   
Hangover from yesterday's washout

Month end

G20 and Trump vs China on tariffs

Brexit news and home stretch to parliament vote

Amman wfakhoury 14:03 GMT November 29, 2018
GBPUSD BUY and SELL
Reply   
Scalp buy and sell both are winner

GVI Trader john 13:59 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Rising

Keep an eye on weekly Jobless claims. They have been at such low levels for a decade that they had no room to go lower. However, there is plenty of room on the top...

london red 13:57 GMT November 29, 2018
EU

i am bearish euro unless can clear 115/11550. italy yet to be sorted out, mkt will refocus on it sooner or later. until a solution found think risk is always a return to downside.

london red 13:56 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Rising

had a few claims now. one on nfp data point. so that to watch nxt friday

Belgrade Knez 13:55 GMT November 29, 2018
EU
Reply   
london red

could you please share your eur/usd view?

thank you

london red 13:53 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Rising

oct income spending good but as i said b4 its nov dec numbers that we need to watch. nxt wks numbers...

GVI Trader john 13:50 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Rising

Weekly Jobless Claims starting to signal economic slowdown? Keep in mind these data can be volatile...

GVI Forex Blog 13:48 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Rising
Reply   
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims rising.

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Chart
<Click on chart for over seventeen-year history

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Rising

GVI Forex Blog 13:42 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Core PCE Deflator Below Fed Target In October 2018
Reply   
U.S. October 2018 Core PCE Deflator easing below its L-T target level. Fed Targets the core PCE Deflator at 2.00%.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Core PCE Deflator Below Fed Target In October 2018

GVI Trader john 13:31 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Personal Income/PCE Deflator October, 2018



ALERT
Personal Income +0.50% vs. +0.40% exp v +0.20% prev.
Core PCE Defl +1.80% vs. +1.90% exp. vs. +2.00% prev. (r. +1.90%)


RELEASE: Personal Income



TTN: Live News Special Offer





-----------------------


US Weekly Jobless Claims



ALERT

234K vs. 220K exp vs. 224K (r. ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Livingston nh 13:28 GMT November 29, 2018
Fed's Powell Confirms More Cautious Policy Path. Brexit Worries Persist

A couple of things about Powell's move - first, Fed follows oil, it wasn't Cramer's MARKET BLINK or interest sensitive factors --- once $56 Bear market hit the Fed took notice

Second, the Fed Minutes come out today and the cynic in me thinks there may have been some fine tuning at the last Minute on the Minutes (Powell's earlier speech about R* was a bit different)

Personal Income is released and see what the interest paid looks like - not near NORMAL

Third, Kaplan (dallas Fed talks today) - he wrote a piece about the uncertainty of R* - watch for his references // Powell has been captured by R* Theorists

It's easy to throw red meat to wolves to keep them at bay, the problem arises when you stop or worse decide to take it back -- the FED made a Big Mistake

GVI 13:24 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Russia Energy Min Novak confirms discussions with OPEC + on considering oil production - Source TradeTheNews.com

HK [email protected] 13:23 GMT November 29, 2018
2 US warships pass through Taiwan Strait ahead of crucial Trump-Xi meeting
Reply   
.
Not a very friendly salvo, bullying China before the meeting of the two leaders.
So it is better not to be too positive, because nothing may come out of this meeting.
Seems to me the US wants to weaken China economically, and reduce it's influence in the Far-East.
About trade agreement? No needs; Just go on taxing China goods.

2 US warships pass through Taiwan Strait ahead of crucial Trump-Xi meeting

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:17 GMT November 29, 2018
Amazing Trader Update
Reply   
EURGBP ,8914

EURGBP buying is behind the latest move up in EURUSD, which has so far failed to test its HOD at 1.1397

Amazing Trader shows EURGBP key resistance levels at .8923 and ,8932, so far untouched

See what traders are saying

Amazing Trader Reviews

Livingston nh 13:05 GMT November 29, 2018
Winners and Losers

jp - tariffs are a tax so Treasury coffers fill -- the folks who ultimately pay those taxes are companies who pass at least some of the tax on to consumers // see if that gets picked up in the CPI

GVI 13:02 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

German (and others) flash HICP suggest easier EZ flash HICP tomorrow. Probably due to falling oil prices...

GVI 13:01 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

GERMANY NOV PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.1% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.4%E
- CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.3%e

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Mtl JP 12:54 GMT November 29, 2018
Winners and Losers

looks like President Trump is pissing on chinese suits threats IF they are not treated as an "equal"

Donald J. Trump
Verified account
@realDonaldTrump
22 minutes ago
Billions of Dollars are pouring into the coffers of the U.S.A. because of the Tariffs being charged to China, and there is a long way to go. If companies donít want to pay Tariffs, build in the U.S.A. Otherwise, lets just make our Country richer than ever before!

Mtl JP 12:39 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

john 12:27 nor to military alliances

GVI 12:33 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

German Chancellor Merkel to have bilateral meetings with Trump, Putin and Xi at G20 - financial press - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader john 12:27 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

JP- those laws do not apply to oil producers...

GVI Trader john 12:22 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

USDCAD sharply lower and AUDUSD up on oil rebound (last $51.35).

Mtl JP 12:22 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

normally such discussions would be considered collusion
normally ...

GVI 12:19 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Earlier (about 15 mins ago) --

Russia and Saudis said to still be negotiating details of oil production cut - press - Russia said to accept need to cut in line with OPEC but prefer a more gradual process

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader john 12:17 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

Looking for USD clues today. Markets started of in a Risk Off mode, but this might be being tempered. Watch the risk assets, i.e. Equities, bonds, oil EURUSD etc for direction.

Mtl JP 11:57 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

WTI at 49.90 LoD at 49.64
canadian crap at 17
-
US stocks looking to open DOwn

Mtl JP 11:39 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

john 09:57 // POOF DB ?
Poof DBs stock

Mtl JP 11:13 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

the so-what of that -> euro wobbled some

maybe worth remembering

GVI Forex 10:50 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

05:45 (EU) EU Budget Commissioner Oettinger: Expects US car tariffs before Christmas - press

- Source TradeTheNews.com

bali sja 10:04 GMT November 29, 2018
audusd
Reply   
audusd looks like a sell 7330-80

GVI Trader john 09:57 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Hundreds of German prosecutors Have descended on DB offices today for money laundering investigation.

london red 09:56 GMT November 29, 2018
Fed's Powell Confirms More Cautious Policy Path. Brexit Worries Persist

128 is a mark as well as daily tenkan at 12826. while below there mkt not too keen on chasing unless brexit related. a daily close abv will see more folks looking to buy dip tho.

bali sja 09:56 GMT November 29, 2018
usdcad
Reply   
if can stabilise above 13290, will play long for 134 and beyond

GVI Trader john 09:55 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

CNBC reporter in BA saying word is there is not much possible between Xi and Trump at G20.

bali sja 09:53 GMT November 29, 2018
Fed's Powell Confirms More Cautious Policy Path. Brexit Worries Persist

kl, shawn
i will definitely try to sell all pops to 12820 today

GVI Trader john 09:52 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

10s 3.006%
CO $49.88
DJ -73

Risk-Off Early

kl shawn 09:50 GMT November 29, 2018
Fed's Powell Confirms More Cautious Policy Path. Brexit Worries Persist

red, how high is enough for you to consider the theme is correct in case of positive-brexit-news-induced pops?

GVI Forex Blog 09:45 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: German Unemployment Data in Line For November 2018
Reply   
German November 2018 Jobless data in line. (lower is better). Unemployment rate steady.

BREAKING NEWS: German Unemployment Data in Line For November 2018

london red 09:44 GMT November 29, 2018
Fed's Powell Confirms More Cautious Policy Path. Brexit Worries Persist

cable is so beaten up (with good reason) so can only be sold on rallies given that every so often positive brexit news drives it higher. its possible euro will do more downside than cable today. powell gave risk assets a boost yest but italy isnt going away, its just a question of when the mkt reasserts its bearish view on this. think air thin abv 115 for euro.

GVI Trader john 09:39 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:
Neutral
Spot EURUSD: 1.1373
Pivot Point: 1.1341

This Week: 1.1267-1.1398
Thu: 1.1363-1.1398
Wed: 1.1267-1.1387
Tue: 1.1277-1.1344
Mon: 1.1326-1.1384

Fri: 1.1332-1.1421

20-day avg: 1.1365
50-day avg: 1.1470
100-day avg: 1.1539
200-day avg: 1.1773

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Dec 19: 82% (80%).

10-yr Bonds
US: 2.999% -6.7bp
DE: 0.323% -3.1
GB: 1.325% -5.3
JP: 0.086% -1.8

DAX: +64
Implied Open
DJ: -62
SP: -8.7



See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI Trader john 09:31 GMT November 29, 2018
Equities Higher. 10-Yr Bond Yields Down. FX: USD And EUR Mixed

U..S 10-yr note (below) a shade below 3.00%.

kl shawn 09:19 GMT November 29, 2018
Fed's Powell Confirms More Cautious Policy Path. Brexit Worries Persist

red, where do you suggest to sell cable today?

GVI Forex Blog 09:14 GMT November 29, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Thu 29 Nov 2018
A 09:00 DE- Employment
A 13:30 US- PCE Deflator
A 15:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
A 19:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
Fri 30 Nov 2018
A 07:00 DE- Retail Sales
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP


Thursday Trading Outlook 29 November 2018

GVI Trader john 09:12 GMT November 29, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

German Unemployment November 2018




NEWS ALERT
Rate: 5.00% vs. 5.10% exp. vs. 5.10% prev.
Change: -10K vs. -10K exp. vs. -11K (r ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

kl shawn 09:12 GMT November 29, 2018
Fed's Powell Confirms More Cautious Policy Path. Brexit Worries Persist

go usd go usd, rates rates rates

london red 09:08 GMT November 29, 2018
Fed's Powell Confirms More Cautious Policy Path. Brexit Worries Persist

may getting roasted by tsc...

kl shawn 08:57 GMT November 29, 2018
Fed's Powell Confirms More Cautious Policy Path. Brexit Worries Persist

sell cable against 12820 today

kl fs 08:55 GMT November 29, 2018
Fed's Powell Confirms More Cautious Policy Path. Brexit Worries Persist

looks like usd has found support in many pairs
audusd 7330ish, euro 1.1390ish, and cable 1.2850ish all sell levels

NY JM 00:36 GMT November 29, 2018
Fed's Powell Confirms More Cautious Policy Path. Brexit Worries Persist

Powell's testimony was foreshadowed by Fed VP Clarida yesterday yet the market ignored it.

Looking at moves in interest rates (widening of 2-10 year spread by 2.3 bp), it was more about positioning than his comments, which should not have been a surprise.

Next big hurdle is the G20 and whether Xi-Trump can smooth things over. We know Trump will say it was a great meeting so beware of his bluster.

Then there is Brexit and risk of ano vote still overhangs the pound.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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