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Forex Forum Archive for 12/04/2018

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


HK [email protected] 22:51 GMT December 4, 2018
Trump

.
Beefing up Stox by a fake twitty, results to a 3% crush upon finding the truth of "no deal".
If Stox will crush from here on, should not be a surprise.
People like to be cheated, until they find the truth.



dc CB 22:25 GMT December 4, 2018
Wednesday Trading Strategy 5 December 2018

API
Crude +5.36MM
Cushing +1.44MM
Gasoline +3.61MM
Distillates +4.32MM

Mtl JP 21:43 GMT December 4, 2018
Wednesday Trading Strategy 5 December 2018

FWIW US stock market is closed on Wed - ie tomorrow

GVI Trader john 21:36 GMT December 4, 2018
Wednesday Trading Strategy 5 December 2018

API
CO +5.400

EIA data will be released on Thursday

GVI Trader john 21:32 GMT December 4, 2018
Wednesday Trading Strategy 5 December 2018

Late Tuesday 10s 2.914% DJ -799 CO $52.74

GVI Trader john 21:10 GMT December 4, 2018
Wednesday Trading Strategy 5 December 2018

For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:
Neutral
Spot EURUSD: 1.1342
Pivot Point: 1.1360

This Week: 1.1319-1.1418
Tue: 1.1319=1.1418
Mon: 1.1319-1.1380

Fri: 1.1305-1.1401
Thu: 1.1348-1.1401


20-day avg: 1.1354
50-day avg: 1.1436
100-day avg: 1.1525
200-day avg: 1.1754

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Dec 19: 76% (80%).

GVI Forex Blog 21:06 GMT December 4, 2018
Wednesday Trading Strategy 5 December 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Wed 5 Dec 2018
A Bush Memorial--U.S. Markets Close
A All Day Final SVC PMIs
A 04:30 AU- CPI
A 13:15 US- ADP Jobs
A 13:30 US- Productivity
A 15:00 CA- Bank Of Canada Decision
A 15:30 US- EIA Crude
B 19:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 6 Dec 2018
A All Day Final SVC PMIs
AA 12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
AA 13:30 US/CA- Trade
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 23:45 US- Powell Speech
Fri 7 Dec 2018
A 10:00 EZ- GDP
AA 13:30 US/CA- Employment
A 15:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


Wednesday Trading Strategy 5 December 2018

Livingston nh 21:06 GMT December 4, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 4 December 2018

Turn Around Tuesday strikes again -- Prophets of Doom join forces with the Hair on Fire League to spook the Birds off the wire -- Brexit will have the stage to itself tomorrow so GBP is a target

GVI Forex Blog 20:19 GMT December 4, 2018
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 4 November 2018
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 4 November 2018

PAR 19:46 GMT December 4, 2018
Trump
Reply   
The art of no deal .

london red 19:22 GMT December 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

MP's are going to get full access to the legal advice tomorrow. as for no brexit, the default is no brexit, so unless MP's vote for the withdrawal agreement or if nothing else gets agreed by BOTH sides, thats what will happen, a no deal brexit.

GVI Trader john 18:57 GMT December 4, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 4 December 2018

DJ -702
10s 2.901%
CO $53.12

Risk Off

Livingston nh 18:26 GMT December 4, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 4 December 2018

cb - worked about the same then, too

dc CB 18:23 GMT December 4, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 4 December 2018

in 1987 it was called Portfolio Insurance

dc CB 18:20 GMT December 4, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 4 December 2018

zerohedge
‏ @zerohedge
3m3 minutes ago
SPX hitting 2763 unleashed $33BN notional CTA selling wave (from 100% max long to 65% long), sending S&P 30 points lower in seconds


zerohedge
‏ @zerohedge
1m1 minute ago
If SPX hits 2711, another $33BN spoos for sale.
If SPX hits 2574, $122BN for sale

Jkt Abel 17:52 GMT December 4, 2018
Alert: Amazing Trader Update

Can cable close above 1.27?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:52 GMT December 4, 2018
GBPUSD popped higher on this

12:46 (UK) UK PM May Government defeated 321-299 in Vote on Parliament Brexit Power Otherwise known as a Grieve amendment is meant to increase the power of MPs to decide what kind of Brexit, or no Brexit, will transpire.

- Note: Following this vote a no -deal Brexit is less likely as MPs can vote against a no deal Brexit

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader john 17:32 GMT December 4, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 4 December 2018

DJ -582
10s 2.919%
CO $53.43

Risk off ahead Wed holiday

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:27 GMT December 4, 2018
Alert: Amazing Trader Update
Reply   
GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBPUSD low 1.2665

I cited 1.2660 some time ago as a major Amazing Trader target on the downside. It came within 5 pips just now and a break would open the door to the 1.25s in what JP would call an AT ladder destroyer pattern.

GVI Trader john 17:05 GMT December 4, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 4 December 2018

DJ -257
2.935%
CO $53.02


Risk Off

GVI Forex 17:03 GMT December 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

12:00 (UK) UK Parliament find Government in contempt over Brexit legal advice; UK Gov defeated in contempt motion 311-293 Related ()

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader john 16:52 GMT December 4, 2018
ECB DRAGHI= PONZI

In other words, when money markets are operating normally. Banks lend excess cash to each other very actively so that those who have a s-t need of cash to fund themselves and those with excess cash can put those funds to work. The system breaks down when banks do not trust the creditworthness of their counterparts. this causes the central banks to step in between banks to take the credit risk.

GVI Trader john 16:46 GMT December 4, 2018
ECB DRAGHI= PONZI

What are the TLTROs?
The targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) are Eurosystem operations that provide financing to credit institutions for periods of up to four years. They offer long-term funding at attractive conditions to banks in order to further ease private sector credit conditions and stimulate bank lending to the real economy.


--ECB

PAR 16:30 GMT December 4, 2018
ECB DRAGHI= PONZI
Reply   
More QE in the making disguised as.new LTRO S.

Draghi just can t stop his addiction to printing money .

Result . Most European banks are virtually bankrupt thanks to this Italian idiot .

GVI 16:11 GMT December 4, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 4 December 2018

Bank BOC Preview

We expect the BoC to keep overnight rates unchanged at 1.75% at tomorrow’s BoC meeting and to continue to signal further data dependency. A speech the following day by Governor Poloz will be of interest as the market will look for any guidance in BoC's thinking. There will be no press conference on Wednesday, just an updated monetary policy statement. It will be interesting to hear the Governor's thoughts regarding the recent collapse in Western Canada Select prices and the subsequent announcement of significant production cuts that boosted prices, but haven’t resolved the underlying capacity constraints. What the Governor says could tilt the outcome either slightly dovish or hawkish.

If the BoC is dismissive of recent weakness in WCS prices, that would tilt the message slightly hawkish and if the central bank is cautious with regards to the investment outlook that falling prices may have that would tilt slightly dovish.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:51 GMT December 4, 2018
Amazing Trader UpdatdeEURUSD

You have seen me talk about EURGBP and note that once the cross topped out, EURUSD lost its bid. Contact me if you want me to elaborate.

GVI Trader john 15:11 GMT December 4, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 4 December 2018

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System's offices in Washington, D.C., will be closed on Wednesday, December 5, 2018, in observance of the national day of mourning for former President George H.W. Bush.

Chairman Powell's appearance before the Joint Economic Committee has been postponed. The Beige Book will still be published at 2 p.m. EST, as scheduled. All other previously scheduled releases will be postponed until Thursday, December 6.

Federal Reserve Bank payment systems will operate normally. Reserve Bank cash offices will fulfill orders for currency and coin according to normal operating procedures.

Information about the Board's release calendar is available at https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm, and Reserve Bank services information is available at https://www.frbservices.org/app/status/serviceStatus.do.

GVI 15:03 GMT December 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Fed's Williams (moderate, voter): the Fed has attained its dual mandate; many indicators show labor market is quite strong and healthy - Expects economy to growth at 2.5% next year, making for longest US expansion ever - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader john 14:42 GMT December 4, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 4 December 2018

DJ -94
10s 2.953%
CO $53.20

Mixed Risk

GVI Forex 13:50 GMT December 4, 2018
Amazing Trader UpdatdeEURUSD

EURGBP bounce (as indicated by the Amazing Trader) is pushing down GBPUSD and dragging EURUSD with a lag.

PAR 13:30 GMT December 4, 2018
FRANCE
Reply   
TURKEY ISSUES FRANCE TRAVEL WARNING AMID 'YELLOW VESTS' PROTESTS

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:03 GMT December 4, 2018
Amazing Trader Update EURUSD

As posted earlier and why we call it the Amazing Trader (low on the dip was 1.1389)

As noted, 1.1380-00 is the support zone that needs to hold to keep a bid. There is a key Amazing Trader support within this band at 1,1388

Amazing Trader Review

GVI Trader john 13:01 GMT December 4, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 4 December 2018

Most U.S. data due Wednesday has been moved to Thursday. Powell Congressional testimony for Wednesday has been "postponed".

GVI Trader john 12:54 GMT December 4, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 4 December 2018

JP- yes amazing markets could ignore all this Monday.

Mtl JP 11:58 GMT December 4, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 4 December 2018

john 11:39 - yesty global markets rallied on xi/donald "detente" ....
today asia markets stumbled, eurpean stocks are confused as are US stocks looking to heave at open as well.

whowoodufftot eh ....
that markets have a lifespan of a fruit fly and are fickle

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:46 GMT December 4, 2018
Amazing Trader Update S&P
Reply   


We are working on adding CFD indices to the Amazing Trader (we already have gold) and as you can see by this S&P chart, it works amazingly well.

Weekend opening gap was almost filled after bouncing almost dead on off Amazing Trader resistance yesterday.

Amazing Trader Review

GVI Trader john 11:39 GMT December 4, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 4 December 2018

Early Tue

DJ -110
10s 2.953%
CO $54.20

Mixed Risk

GVI Forex 11:32 GMT December 4, 2018
Amazing Trader Update

Another failure to test Amazing Trader target resistance at 1.1421.

As noted, 1.1380-00 is the support zone that needs to hold to keep a bid. There is a key Amazing Trader support within this band at 1,1388

EURGBP (lower) has helped cap the EURUSD upside while keeping a bid in GBPUSD

All displayed in real-time on the Amazing Trader

Amazing Trader Review

GVI Forex 11:28 GMT December 4, 2018
US holiday

Stock market and federal offices are closed Dec 5. I believe banks are open.

Belgrade Knez 10:50 GMT December 4, 2018
US holiday
Reply   
Can anyone confirm will 5. and 6. Dec be off days in USA due to "National Day of Mourning for President George H. W. Bush"?


PAR 10:23 GMT December 4, 2018
USDJPY
Reply   
Long USDJPY 112.80 . Stop 112.40 . Target 115,00 .

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:07 GMT December 4, 2018
Amazing Trader UpdatdeEURUSD
Reply   
EURUSD Amazing Trader resistance/target cited last week at 1.1421 came close but yet to be tested

Supports start at 1.1400 and 1.1380, which need to hold to keep the bid

GVI Trader john 10:01 GMT December 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Eurozone PPI November 2018





ALERT
Headline
mm: +0.80% vs. +0.80% exp. vs. +0.50% (r +0.60%) prev.



TTN: Live News Special
Offer


GVI Trader john 09:56 GMT December 4, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 4 December 2018

For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:
Positive-Neutral
Spot EURUSD: 1.1340
Pivot Point: 1.1416

This Week: 1.1319-1.1418
Tue: 1.1350=1.1418
Mon: 1.1319-1.1380

Fri: 1.1305-1.1401
Thu: 1.1348-1.1401
Wed: 1.1267-1.1387

20-day avg: 1.1357
50-day avg: 1.1445
100-day avg: 1.1529
200-day avg: 1.1759

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Dec 19: 80% (80%).

10-yr Bonds
US: 2.953% -6.8bp
DE: 0.287% -2.5
GB: 1.305% -5.3
JP: 0.082% =1.3

DAX: +207
Implied Open
DJ: -159
SP: -17.4



See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI Trader john 09:46 GMT December 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

GBP resumes its upswing on Brexit unwind.

GVI Trader john 09:43 GMT December 4, 2018
Equities Mixed. 10-Yr Bond Yields Down. FX: USD Down And EUR Mixed. WTI Up

Pre-Open call on DJiA -171

singapore td 09:36 GMT December 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

so brexit-undo is the play?

GVI 09:33 GMT December 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Earlier

(UK) European Court of justice (ECJ) advisers: UK could pull Article 50 unilaterally (non-binding decision)

- Final ruling will come at a later date (Non-binding opinion which requires full ruling from judges)

**Insight: Ruling theoretically mean Britain could cancel Brexit negotiations and stay in EU without asking any of other Member States

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader john 09:31 GMT December 4, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Construction PMI November 2018




-- NEWS ALERT --

53.4 vs. 52.5 exp. vs. 53.2 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 09:21 GMT December 4, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 4 December 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 4 Dec 2018
A 04:30 AU- Reserve Bank Decision
A Bush Memorial -- U.S. Markets Closed
Wed 5 Dec 2018
A All Day Final SVC PMIs
A 04:30 AU- CPI
A 13:15 US- ADP Jobs
A 13:30 US- Productivity
A 15:00 CA- Bank Of Canada Decision
A 15:30 US- EIA Crude
B 19:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 6 Dec 2018
AA 12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
AA 13:30 US/CA- Trade
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 7 Dec 2018
A 10:00 EZ- GDP
AA 13:30 US/CA- Employment
A 15:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


Tuesday Trading Checklist 4 December 2018

manila tom 09:16 GMT December 4, 2018
FED

market has priced in all Fed's hikes next year?

jkt abel 09:09 GMT December 4, 2018
FED

feels like sell-usd day

Mtl JP 02:53 GMT December 4, 2018
FED

The shorter 3-5 yr inverted today vs. the 2yr... next is the 10yr... bonds often price in a recession.

Game of chicken is starting for Powell. Odds r Trump will try to bump him. (He hates weakness because it always reflects on his own insecurities.)

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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