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Forex Forum Archive for 12/16/2018

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Livingston nh 23:06 GMT December 16, 2018
FOMC Meeting

The FOMC is still two members short (2 Board of Govs) so the President will have an effect in 2019 w/ his appointments more than his tweets -- the December regional Reserve Bank Presidents (Voters) will be replaced by Bullard (who is a ZERO on dots), Rosengren, George, and Evans

Because Powell was promoted from within the learning curve as Chair was not very steep (except for the language issue of the past three months) -- BUT the FOMC will be different next year because the all voting Presidents have been there before

The Wicksellian 19th century R* theory is the current hot idea and the potential yield curve inversion will get some comment/attention -- IMO the Fed will hike until Fed Funds is at least 25 bps above CPI before a pause

Will stox be happy if Powell is "dovish" in December? - a slowing economy is not usually good for equities // USD likely takes a hit if RATES don't rise

As always "watch what they do, not what they say" - as a group the Fed is no better than most crystal ball users

As for data dependency it will be viewed thru a Theory Lens and the Fed panics when the unexpected occurs

dc CB 21:44 GMT December 16, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 17 December 2018

Quad Witching at the end of this week for US MarkITs

GVI Forex Blog 13:26 GMT December 16, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 17 December 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 17 Dec 2018
No Major Data
Tue 18 Dec 2018
A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
Wed 19 Dec 2018
AA 09:30 GB- CPI
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 19:30 US- Fed Bank Decision
Thu 20 Dec 2018
01:30 AU- Employment
AA 03:00 JA- BOJ Decision
AA 09:30 GB- Retail Sales
AA 12:00 GB- BOE Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 21 dec 2018
AA 09:30 GB- GDP
AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales
A 13:30 US- Durable Goods
AA 13:30 US- GDP/PCE Deflator
A 15:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


Monday Trading Checklist 17 December 2018

GVI Trader john 13:22 GMT December 16, 2018
FOMC Meeting

"Screaming"? Hardly. Yes its time for the Fed to hit the pause button and odds are they will after hiking rats this week.

Mtl JP 13:12 GMT December 16, 2018
FOMC Meeting

GVI Trader john 11:39 GMT October 13, 2018
Fed Should Take A Breather On Policy Tightening Before It's Too Late

Mtl JP 17:38 GMT December 7, 2018
john are u still screaming that the Fed Should Take A Breather On Policy Tightening Before It's Too Late ??

GVI Trader john 17:47 GMT December 7, 2018
Equities Mixed. 10-yr Yields Down. FX: EUR And USD Mixed. WTI Up:
About two months ago I said the Fed should hike in December and then pause. I am impressed that they must have read what I wrote and have taken my advice. Suggests that the Powell Fed is smarter than the previous bunch!

Have you also noted that they have started speaking with a coordinated voice rather that what pops into their little heads on any given day? Even central bankers can learn. I never would have thought it.

--

Outside of ultimately the brutal application of laws and regulations communication (and credibility) are the prefered purview of the FED. With your reference to reading press websites all the more good reason “why the Fed staff is wary about the Fed chairman answering questions,”

GVI 17:16 GMT October 2, 2018
Fed Chair Powell: Fed rates will continue to be main tool for monetary policy; rates near zero make it more difficult to utilize this tool - Q&A

- Source TradeTheNews.com

The way I add up all the MSM and Jerome s fussings is that the FED's job to make sure money is not in wrong hands. There is difference between The Economy (the mantra says doing very well) and the Financial Markets. DJIA is only tad over 10% down since its Oct all-time high. The S&P and Dow are currently down for 2018 and Nasdaq is essentially flat.

Economy is doing fine
Stocks are not yet in savaged territory
Jeromes FED is not in the business to kowtow to the currently piddly revaluation of risk assets
and is rather focused on domestic macro fundamental issues AND its own toolboxe s effectiveness.

Bottom Line
current market expectations are mis-aligned with FOMCs messaging on the future of rate hikes

Sydney ACC 04:49 GMT December 16, 2018
FOMC Meeting
Reply   
The outcome of this is week’s FOMC meeting is likely to set the tone in the markets certainly for the remainder of this year and likely the early part of 2019. Whereas a few weeks ago I believed an interest rate rise was certain and a further two increases at the minimum would occur next year that has now turned to uncertainty.
Given the economic outlook published in the press websites that I read (FT, NYT, Telegraph, Guardian. Washington Post, SMH) which covers the political spectrum we appear to be on the brink over a major economic reversal.
In Australia property prices are declining at a rate on par with the early 1990’s, the last time this country experienced a recession. Rural Australia is experiencing the worst drought in a 100 years. Spot iron ore prices at the highest this month https://www.marketindex.com.au/iron-ore . A report on ABC news Friday indicated farmers in NSW are getting AUD 150 a head for sheep due to demand from China and USA whereas they would expect government compensation of AUD 6 a head for shooting their livestock in these circumstances. All so confusing while AUD/USD has held up as well as it has.
So getting back to the FOMC. I’m starting to believe this week’s increase is not as certain as the markets have factored in. Whether there’s an increase or not I believe Powell is likely to utter a softer tone.
Either way the dollar may be prone to weakness.
Welcome other opinions.

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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