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Forex Forum Archive for 12/18/2018

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
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dc CB 23:45 GMT December 18, 2018
OIL

API
Crude +3.45mm (-3.25mm exp)
Cushing +1.063mm (+1.3mm exp)
Gasoline +1.76mm
Distillates -3.442mm

GVI Trader john 22:40 GMT December 18, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 19 December 2018

For AT Trading

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GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:
Neutral
Spot EURUSD: 1.1353
Pivot Point: 1.1336

This Week: 1.1300-1.1402
Tue: 1.1337-1.1402
Mon: 1.1300-1.1358

Fri: 1.1270-1.1365
Thu: 1.1312-1.1389
Wed: 1.1315-1.1388

20-day avg: 1.1353
50-day avg: 1.1394
100-day avg: 1.1493
200-day avg: 1.1706

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Dec 19: 68% (68%).

GVI Forex Blog 20:37 GMT December 18, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 19 December 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Wed 19 Dec 2018
AA 09:30 GB- CPI
A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 19:30 US- Fed Bank Decision
Thu 20 Dec 2018
01:30 AU- Employment
AA 03:00 JA- BOJ Decision
AA 09:30 GB- Retail Sales
AA 12:00 GB- BOE Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 21 dec 2018
AA 09:30 GB- GDP
AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales
A 13:30 US- Durable Goods
AA 13:30 US- GDP/PCE Deflator
A 15:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


Wednesday Trading Checklist 19 December 2018

GVI Forex Blog 20:20 GMT December 18, 2018
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 18 December 2018
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 18 December 2018

GVI Trader john 20:19 GMT December 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. House Starts & Permits (000) November 2018




NEWS ALERT
Starts: vs. 1.230 exp. vs. 1.228 (r ) prev.
Permits: vs. 1.270 exp. vs. 1.265 (r )prev.


New Residential Construction



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Livingston nh 20:04 GMT December 18, 2018
OIL

A 45 handle in WTI -- Fed follows oil -- gets interesting

PAR 19:57 GMT December 18, 2018
Belgium
Reply   
Belgian government falls . Prime minister resigns .Political chaos.

Livingston nh 18:32 GMT December 18, 2018
USD/CAD & SPX
Reply   
USD/CAD rejected first run at 1.35 and SPX has been rejected at declining 40ma (15min chart) -- may take the Fed to push each thru
__
media folks are all about what Powell says -- haha -- not what he does (90 day bill likely trades below Fed Funds tomorrow)

Chicago AGA 17:53 GMT December 18, 2018
OIL

Those betting on $100 crude getting squeezed/crushed.

london red 17:38 GMT December 18, 2018
OIL

wti. been a hell of a ride. returned to inverse shs neck at c. 47 bucks. if they cant hold on into close we get to dc's 42 bucks.

Livingston nh 16:10 GMT December 18, 2018
OIL

OIL (MACD dly) and SPX (15 min) both on the verge of another breakdown -- SPX right at the top of today' opening gap (internals weakening and new lows expanding)

Livingston nh 15:36 GMT December 18, 2018
OIL
Reply   
USD/CAD and USD/NOK (new hi) favored by oil decline but not so much effect on MXN // Fed hike to boost USD/CAD a bit more

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:35 GMT December 18, 2018
How to Trade in a Holiday Market

It is all about flows this week and note what happened after the EURGBP sell order found support above .8960 = key support (see the Amazing Trader).

GBPUSD lost its bid, EURUSD followed lower with a laq.

The Amazing Trader

Belgrade Knez 14:29 GMT December 18, 2018
BREXIT

PAR 13:58 GMT 12/18/2018
No deal Brexit will have to mean hard border in Northern Ireland ?

Seems like there will never be hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland ...... that could be first step of UK falling apart .......

dc CB 14:00 GMT December 18, 2018
TRUMP

Readers may wonder: why am I so concerned with these shenanigans among the FBI, the DOJ and Intel Community when there is that other elephant in the room, viz: Mr. Trump, the Golden Golem of Greatness, the awkward, embarrassing, childish fellow dishonoring the Oval Office?
Because the actions of his antagonists are much more dangerous to the public interest than the oafish president. Elected officials come and go, but when America chucks the rule of law on the old garbage barge, this will cease to be the land of the free and the home of the brave.

Fatal Over-reach----Kunstler

PAR 13:58 GMT December 18, 2018
BREXIT
Reply   
No deal Brexit will have to mean hard border in Northern Ireland ?

Livingston nh 13:33 GMT December 18, 2018
Will the Fed raise rates on Wednesday?

In the absence of Transcripts from the Fomc it is hard to know in REAL TIME what motivated the Fed -- now Press Conferences after every meeting (wow, I'm sure saying nothing 8 times a year is better than 4) -- just think of all the gobbledygook we have endured over the last 3 years

The Beige Book is pretty good review of economic conditions w/ strength and weakness region by region and ISM comments are helpful -- the economy is doing fine // The FED can't fix tariff concerns or labor shortages or regulatory burdens -- this FED is trying to wean folks off the too easy level of interest rates aka NORMALIZATION

The Money Supply growth rate has slowed -- all of the balance sheet reduction has shown up in the NON Required Reserves -- the Required Reserves (spending and loans) have declined over the last 12 months // correcting this imbalance should be the next step for the FED (IOER)

Pollyanna (moi) says the economy is doing fine, P/E levels in stox are Cheaper and interest rates are too low -- I'd still rather get a Pony than a new Crystal Ball next week

GVI Trader john 13:33 GMT December 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. House Starts & Permits (000) November 2018




NEWS ALERT
Starts: 1.2600 vs. 1.230 exp. vs. 1.228 (r 1.217 ) prev.
Permits: 1.330 vs. 1.270 exp. vs. 1.265 (r )prev.


New Residential Construction



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Jkt Abel 13:19 GMT December 18, 2018
TRUMP

Euro looks bottoming, 1.17-1.20 next?

PAR 13:10 GMT December 18, 2018
TRUMP
Reply   
Yesterday . Our economy is stronger than ever .

Today . Don't raise rates.

Dementia ? Altsheimer ?

PAR 13:03 GMT December 18, 2018
Will the Fed raise rates on Wednesday?

Trump says the economy is very strong .

Trump says US interest rates of 2 % are way too high.

Both can't be thru. Either the economy is weak and rates are too high , or the economy is very strong and rates are too low.

Trump businesses have huge debt and Trump is thinking about his own situation.

dc CB 12:39 GMT December 18, 2018
Will the Fed raise rates on Wednesday?

Trump: "et tu StoX?"

Mtl JP 12:19 GMT December 18, 2018
Will the Fed raise rates on Wednesday?

I think the FEDs job is to keep money out of wrong hands.
So far it is doing an admirable job but
imho more needs to be done.

U.S. stock market set to attempt cautious rebound after two days of pummeling

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:55 GMT December 18, 2018
Will the Fed raise rates Wednesday?

Here is my view: Two possible scenarios

1) No rate hike and dovish statement

2) Rate hike and dovish statement

#1 would be the greater surprise although the risk is being factored in.

The USD is likely to stay on the defensive ahead of the FOMC and will see if equities can get some relief in anticipation of a dovish Fed.

In any case, if you are looking for the levels that matter and patterns to trde them, sign up for our

The Amazing Trader

Mtl JP 11:29 GMT December 18, 2018
Will the Fed raise rates Wednesday?

stocks -- worst december since 1931...
pundits panties twisted up in the crack
screaming about self feeding downward phenomenon

Mtl JP 11:24 GMT December 18, 2018
Will the Fed raise rates Wednesday?

according to Caroline Baum:

Raising interest rates now to be able to lower them to ward off a recession is a silly idea

remember: could is NOT will:

Opinion: How the idea of the Fed ‘stockpiling ammunition’ could blow up the economy

Amman wfakhoury 11:21 GMT December 18, 2018
GBPUSD
Reply   
Take care of the new consolidation level

GVI Forex 11:11 GMT December 18, 2018
Will the Fed raise rates Wednesday?

US yields lower as market looks ahead to the Fed on Wednesday => weighing on the USD in a market that likely is still net long the USD (check our COT report)

Cape May NJ jb 11:10 GMT December 18, 2018
Will the Fed raise rates Wednesday?

For the last decade or so, the Fed has not wanted to surprise the markets. They also apparently have become snowflakes? My best guess is that they forge ahead (80% odds) with a 25bp rate hike, but that we get what is called a "dovish tightening". That means the rate hike will be accompanied with a dovish policy statement. I think that they will signal that they are hitting the "pause" button, not that this is the final rate hike, but that this is the final hike for a good while and that the NEXT policy move will be determined by the course of FUTURE data. In other words, all options will be kept open. There is no need to signal the next policy move at this juncture.

I am expecting the financial markets to take the signal as a back door easing and trade accordingly. The surprise decision would be a "hawkish tightening". By now, most thoughtful traders should be set up for a dovish Fed.

I am expecting a volatile response to the FED.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:54 GMT December 18, 2018
How to Trade in a Holiday Market

For those who are still trading and have not watched this video, I suggest taking a good look or a second look. This week is unfolding as suggested, with position adjustments and book squaring flows dominating.



GVI Trader john 10:47 GMT December 18, 2018
Tuesday Trading Strategy 18 December 2018

Mixed Risk Early
DJ +127
$48.59
10s 2.830%

Key could be how U.S. Shares perform today

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:08 GMT December 18, 2018
Amazing Trader Update
Reply   
EURUSD 1.1379

Amazing Trader resistance at 1.1393/1.1400/1.1442 (most important). Needs to hold 1.1360-64 to keep a bid

USDJPY 112.38

Support at 112.18 is a potential strong level. Equities edging up keeping it above this level. 112.50 pis pivotal intra-day resistance that will set the intra-day bias. .

Amazing Trader gives you opportunities to trade in all market conditions

Amazing Trader Reviews

GVI 09:33 GMT December 18, 2018
Will the Fed raise rates Wednesday?

Donald Trump’s hectoring aside, it’s exceedingly rare the Federal Reserve raises interest rates when stocks are behaving this badly.

In fact, were policy makers to follow through with their widely expected hike Wednesday, it would be the first time since 1994 they tightened in this brutal a market. Right now, the S&P 500 is down over the last three, six and 12 months, a backdrop that has accompanied just two of 76 rate increases since 1980...Bloomberg

Fed Rate Hikes Are Extremely Rare When Stocks Are This Beat Up

GVI Trader john 09:27 GMT December 18, 2018
Tuesday Trading Strategy 18 December 2018

For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:
Neutral
Spot EURUSD: 1.1370
Pivot Point: 1.1336

This Week: 1.1300-1.1377
Tue: 1.1337-1.1377
Mon: 1.1300-1.1358

Fri: 1.1270-1.1365
Thu: 1.1312-1.1389
Wed: 1.1315-1.1388
Tue: 1.1306-1.1400


20-day avg: 1.1358
50-day avg: 1.1400
100-day avg: 1.1500
200-day avg: 1.1716

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Dec 19: 68% (73%).

10-yr Bonds
US: 2.837% -3.8bp
DE: 0.240% -1.7
GB: 1.247% -1.8
JP: 0.023% -1.8

DAX: -27
Implied Open
DJ: +126
SP: +11.4



See the Amazing Trader Live!

GVI Trader john 09:20 GMT December 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: German IFO Survey Weaker In December 2018

IFO says it sees a "cooling" of German data, but no recession.

GVI Forex Blog 09:14 GMT December 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: German IFO Survey Weaker In December 2018
Reply   
Headline December IFO worse vs. forecasts and weaker mo/mo.



German IFO from April 2018 were changed to include services. Earlier data are not available.

BREAKING NEWS: German IFO Survey Weaker In December 2018

Jkt Abel 09:13 GMT December 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Bye crude oil? Bitcoin style tanking

GVI Trader john 09:05 GMT December 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Markets apparently setting up for a "dovish" Fed policy tightening tomorrow.

GVI Trader john 09:03 GMT December 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

IFO Survey weaker than expected. EUR dips a pip or two then recovers.

GVI Trader john 09:01 GMT December 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

German IFO Survey December 2018



NEWS ALERT

Climate: 101.0 vs. 101.6 exp. vs. 102.0 prev.
Current: 104.7 vs. 104.8 exp. vs. 105.4 prev.
Expectations: 97.3 vs. 98.3 exp. vs. 98.7 prev.


IFO Climate Survey



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 08:39 GMT December 18, 2018
Tuesday Trading Strategy 18 December 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 18 Dec 2018
A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
Wed 19 Dec 2018
AA 09:30 GB- CPI
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 19:30 US- Fed Bank Decision
Thu 20 Dec 2018
01:30 AU- Employment
AA 03:00 JA- BOJ Decision
AA 09:30 GB- Retail Sales
AA 12:00 GB- BOE Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 21 dec 2018
AA 09:30 GB- GDP
AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales
A 13:30 US- Durable Goods
AA 13:30 US- GDP/PCE Deflator
A 15:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


Tuesday Trading Strategy 18 December 2018

Jkt Abel 08:35 GMT December 18, 2018
MARGIN CALL

Usd got spooked? No Fed hike?

PAR 07:36 GMT December 18, 2018
MARGIN CALL
Reply   
Margin Debt does not include low covenant loans taken to do share repurchases...the corporate margin call is way bigger and won’t start till the exogenous events transpire that will trigger it

PAR 07:15 GMT December 18, 2018
Pick a End Year Target for S n P

2450

Livingston nh 01:36 GMT December 18, 2018
Will the Fed raise rates Wednesday?

The markets are buffeted by all the knowns BUT nobody makes a BIG deal about the Dems taking the House -- Pres Trump and Pelosi are perfect together // Two big SPENDERS

Livingston nh 01:05 GMT December 18, 2018
Will the Fed raise rates Wednesday?

The Fed has to hike -- would have been signals if … (like MARCH massacre) // The risk is Powell is too dovish and regrets by MARCH

Sydney ACC 01:03 GMT December 18, 2018
Will the Fed raise rates Wednesday?

In addition to the announcement of the discount rate there's also forward guidance relating to the Fed's outlook for next year..

While it's my opinion the market is now looking for fewer increases than was expected at the previous meeting, no increase to the discount rate on Wednesday would spook the markets.

If the economy goes south the Fed then has the luxury to reverse this week's adjustment.

GVI 00:53 GMT December 18, 2018
Will the Fed raise rates Wednesday?
Reply   
...
Entry: Target: Stop:

It seemed like a long shot but now no rate hike has to be considered.

Post your opinion

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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