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Forex Forum Archive for 12/19/2018

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Livingston nh 21:52 GMT December 19, 2018
Winners and Losers

Post FED -- Italian 10 yr and US 10 yr both @2.77% yield AND the 30 yr is under 3% // tick tick tick

GVI Trader john 21:41 GMT December 19, 2018
Thursday Trading Strategy 20 December 2018

Late Wednesday
DJ -351
10s 3.762%

dc CB 21:40 GMT December 19, 2018
Winners and Losers

interesting intv from Nov 3, on USA Watchdog: Chas Nenner a cycle guy. fwiw said he was buying Bonds the following week, as the cycle has turned. didn't know what wud cause it, but the Cycle has turned up for bonds.
So what happened, starting the week of Nov 12.

Chas Nenner, USA Watchdog Nov 3rd

GVI Trader john 21:37 GMT December 19, 2018
Thursday Trading Strategy 20 December 2018

For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:
Neutral
Spot EURUSD: 1.1377
Pivot Point: 1.1393

This Week: 1.1300-1.1439
Wed: 1.1361-1.1439
Tue: 1.1337-1.1402
Mon: 1.1300-1.1358

Fri: 1.1270-1.1365


20-day avg: 1.1352
50-day avg: 1.1391
100-day avg: 1.1490
200-day avg: 1.1701

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

nw kw 21:17 GMT December 19, 2018
MARGIN CALL

in grand trading aud/cad on cliff for usa/cad pared,aka fed. hip. gold to moon b

PAR 20:51 GMT December 19, 2018
Sometimes its wiser to ignore the pundits.

Dollar lower

Stocks lower

Comodities lower

Great day !

HK [email protected] 20:49 GMT December 19, 2018
Sometimes its wiser to ignore the pundits.
Reply   
.
Also the Pundits want to make money no?
Purposely misleading the public has always been around.
The pundits with the big sharks have full access to the media the smaller investor do not have.

PAR 20:37 GMT December 19, 2018
MARGIN CALL

JPM Jamie Dimon talking about 10 year yields at 5% a few weeks ago?


Mtl JP 20:28 GMT December 19, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 19 December 2018

10-yr touches nine-month low of 2.769%

making it tuff geting return on one's money...
folks dreams of living off interest : poof
as dubya said so murrican to have 2-3 jobs
(work, WORK losers!)

Mtl JP 20:20 GMT December 19, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 19 December 2018

john 20:05 pundits do not pay bills (usually they are either salaried bureaucrtas on defined pension or market "leaders" with a bias)
BUT priceaction that whips around +/- 2% or more on the day , particularly IF you are on margin, is hard to ignore

Mtl JP 20:15 GMT December 19, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 19 December 2018

what a plum (or steak in the heart)

statement: ""some further gradual increases in the target range for the federal-funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity."

Jerome just does not want give uP on getting the rates higher so that he can be more effective in the future when R hits

no sympathy from Jerome for short pain in his pursuit of loftier more effective interventionist int rate level

PAR 20:10 GMT December 19, 2018
MARGIN CALL
Reply   
Brilliant Harvard educated wizards loved shares buybacks.

The $mart ones sold into the announcements

GVI Trader john 20:05 GMT December 19, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 19 December 2018

Sometimes its wiser to ignore the pundits. Oftentimes they spin a yard which takes on a life of its own. I view Powell as mildly hawkish . Its always dangerous when the entire market is on the same side of the boat.

Mtl JP 20:03 GMT December 19, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 19 December 2018

now for the insidious theft:
(winners and losers)

Powell: Fed not thinking about changing 2% inflation target
ie screwing folks on fixed incomes who have worked all their lives and tried to make some savings

typical fiat money peddling central banker

PAR 20:01 GMT December 19, 2018
AAPL
Reply   
Below 140 Cook.gets a margin call as Christmas present.

Michael Bublle on iPhone music ,

GVI Trader john 20:00 GMT December 19, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 19 December 2018

Risk-Off post Fed

DJ -250
10s 2.782%
CO $47.30

Mtl JP 19:59 GMT December 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

transport sub-index in the toilet
does not bode well some unbridled economy

Mtl JP 19:51 GMT December 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

now Jerome pleading innocence...
being concilliatory about market weakness
claiming he ll be subservient (haha) to "as things develop"

PAR 19:50 GMT December 19, 2018
FED Decision

S&P 2450 year end . Here we come. Dom Perignon Rose !

GVI Trader john 19:50 GMT December 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

December 19, 2018

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For release at 2:00 p.m. EST


Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Household spending has continued to grow strongly, while growth of business fixed investment has moderated from its rapid pace earlier in the year. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee judges that some further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. The Committee judges that risks to the economic outlook are roughly balanced, but will continue to monitor global economic and financial developments and assess their implications for the economic outlook.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-1/4 to 2‑1/2 percent.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; John C. Williams, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.

london red 19:40 GMT December 19, 2018
FED Decision

not been able to move much below 2530. 3 times now but more a sign of OS than anything else. will bounce a bit if can stay abv other side of powell speech but mkt too gittery to be calling any lt bottoms here.

Mtl JP 19:38 GMT December 19, 2018
Winners and Losers

Winners and Losers
---------------------
Americans could pay $2.4 billion more on their credit-card debt after Fed rate hike - MarketWatch

Now think... not who is going to be paying BUT
WHO is going to be receiving the extra cash

dc CB 19:37 GMT December 19, 2018
FED Decision

Fed now paying banks 2.40% in interest on $1.6 trillion in parked reserves

Mtl JP 19:35 GMT December 19, 2018
FED Decision

MSM pundits wink-wink for the show screaming that Jerome is defying (defying, nothing less !!) President Trump's "wishes".

what a comedy for market dogs and hyenas

Mtl JP 19:31 GMT December 19, 2018
FED Decision

and so-far President Trump has not uttered anything unfavorable about Jerome making yet another mistake.
Maybe Jerome has not made any mistake and any presidential huff n puff is just a line in the kubuki theater

Mtl JP 19:28 GMT December 19, 2018
FED Decision

and now stocks crash as they hit the worry wall
funny types that they are

GVI 19:11 GMT December 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Now says expects 'some' further gradual increases in fed funds rate will be consistent with sustained economic expansion, strong jobs market, and inflation objective - Will monitor global economic and financial developments and assess implications for outlook- Inflation is near target with expectations little changed - Household spending continued to grow strongly- Economic activity has been rising at a strong rate - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader john 19:01 GMT December 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Fed Policy Decision December 19, 2018






NEWS ALERT
Fed Funds Target Range raised to at 2.25% to 2.50%

RELEASE: Policy Statement


TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 18:57 GMT December 19, 2018
FED Decision

euro options pricing in about half a fig move. any more than that and it should stick, otherwise likely to drift.

GVI Trader john 18:49 GMT December 19, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 19 December 2018

10s 2.823%

Mtl JP 18:40 GMT December 19, 2018
FED Decision

stocks climbing a wall of worry

Investopedia: Wall of worry is the financial markets' periodic tendency to surmount a host of negative factors and keep ascending.

GVI Trader john 17:46 GMT December 19, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 19 December 2018

Heading into Fed time.
Risk-On

DJ +300
10s 2.821%
CO $48.06

PAR 17:35 GMT December 19, 2018
FED Decision
Reply   
Who knows what when ? Leaking to befriended hedge.funds ?

,,Legalised insider trading ? All central banks are corrupt ?

GVI Forex Blog 17:26 GMT December 19, 2018
Thursday Trading Strategy 20 December 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Thu 20 Dec 2018
01:30 AU- Employment
AA 03:00 JA- BOJ Decision
AA 09:30 GB- Retail Sales
AA 12:00 GB- BOE Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 21 dec 2018
AA 09:30 GB- GDP
AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales
A 13:30 US- Durable Goods
AA 13:30 US- GDP/PCE Deflator
A 15:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


Thursday Trading Strategy 20 December 2018

Kl Shawn 15:51 GMT December 19, 2018
Sell oil
Reply   
Sold 47.56 for 40-42, stop later

GVI 15:51 GMT December 19, 2018
Amazing Trader Update

Note the run at 1.1442 target, so far first attempt failure (high 1,1439)

Amazing Trading lines often act as magnets.

GVI Trader john 15:48 GMT December 19, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 19 December 2018

DJ +191
10s 2.825%
CO $47.83

GVI Trader john 15:30 GMT December 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts






NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: -0.500 vs. -2.480 exp vs. -1.210 prev.
Distillates: -4.200vs. +0.400 exp vs. -1.480 prev.
Gasoline: +1.800 vs. +1.030 exp vs. +2.090 prev.



Weekly Petroleum Status Report



TTN: Live News Special Offer

dc CB 15:25 GMT December 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Existing Homes Sales Beat In October 2018.

ZeroHedge sez:
November existing home sales managed an upside surprise - rising 1.9% MoM. However, that is the end of the good news.
Year-over-year, existing home sales are down 7% - the biggest drop since 2011 (and this is the slowest sales pace for November in four years)...

GVI Forex Blog 15:11 GMT December 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Existing Homes Sales Beat In October 2018.
Reply   

U.S., Existing Homes Sales
Most significant housing statistic. Data better than expected in November, 2018.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Existing Homes Sales Beat In November 2018.

GVI Trader john 15:01 GMT December 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln) November 2018



ALERT

p.a. s.a.: 5.320 vs. 5.200 exp. vs 5.220 (r. ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

dc CB 14:50 GMT December 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

The WSJ just reported a monumental and historic reversal in White House policy on Syria, revealing Wednesday morning the Pentagon is preparing to withdraw all forces from northeastern Syria "immediately":

Minutes after the WSJ first broke the story, The Washington Post confirmed the following through an unnamed defense official:

update: It's official, within an hour after the first headline the president tweeted "We have defeated ISIS in Syria" and in reference to reports of a planned US troop withdrawal from Syria which reports say is to be initiated "immediately," he added that the terror group's defeat was "my only reason for being there".

ZeroHedge

In Drastic Reversal, US Set For "Full Withdrawal" From Syria As Trump Claims Victory Over ISIS

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:48 GMT December 19, 2018
Amazing Trader Update

EURUSD 1.1424

Market setting up short USD ahead of the Fed.

Amazing Trader resistance at 1.1428 stands in from of the key level at 1.1442 (stops?). Other key Amazing Trader resistance at 1.1472 and 1.1500

Needs to stay above 1.1414 to keep a strong bid.

The Amazing Trader

GVI Forex Blog 13:54 GMT December 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: Canada CPI (y/y) Easier than Expected In November 2018
Reply   
Canada: CPI November 2018 easier (y/y) than expected.

BREAKING NEWS: Canada CPI (y/y) Easier than Expected In November 2018

GVI Trader john 13:32 GMT December 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Current Account 3Q18 (USD bln)




ALERT
-124.8 vs. -124.0 exp. vs. -101.0 (-101.2) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trader john 13:31 GMT December 19, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 19 December 2018

Canada: CPI November 2018

Canada Charts





NEWS ALERT

mm: -0.04% vs. -0.40% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.
yy: +1.70% vs. +1.80% exp. vs. +2.40% prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Livingston nh 13:28 GMT December 19, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 19 December 2018

The FI markets will call the tune for the USD after the FOMC

STOX have "priced in" a HIKE so s/b a "buy the rumor sell the fact" BUT action/reaction function of programs will muddy the message -- nothing to see there

FI yields may drop further if Powell and DOTZ stray too far into DOVEland - not sure the USD has priced in the 2 yr below 2.5% for next year // Volcker didn't cave into $10 oil in 1986, see what the Powell era will bring -- the pointy heads' theories don't always jibe w/ reality

Mtl JP 12:45 GMT December 19, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 19 December 2018

President Trump advising jerome to tread carefully so as not to "make yet another mistake."

Jkt Abel 12:42 GMT December 19, 2018
Usdcad
Reply   
Usdcad looks like a buy with stop 13340, target 1.36-1.38

Jkt Abel 12:39 GMT December 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Dubai MA, return of euro as anti dollar trade? Or at least buy eur crosses, if today's usd volatility too much to handle

Mtl JP 12:13 GMT December 19, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 19 December 2018

Todays risk is that chief screamer for, promoter of easy credit and FED decision meddler is going to have a personal health crisis

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:56 GMT December 19, 2018
Amazing Trader Update
Reply   


EURGBP .9018

EURGBP so far stopped dead on at Amazing Trader .9023 resistance (see chart).

Resistance above it is at .9050 and .9069 ahead of the key .9087 level.

On downside, .9007 stands in front of .8995 (most important).

Note how EURUSD backed off after EURGBP held ,9023.

All displayed in real-time on the Amazing Trader


The Amazing Trader

GVI Trader john 11:35 GMT December 19, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 19 December 2018

Mixed Risk:

10s 2.816%
DJ 107
CO $46.77

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:54 GMT December 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Look at a EURGBP chart for a source of EURUSD demand

Dubai MA 10:38 GMT December 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Why is EurUsd so bid?

GVI Forex Blog 09:39 GMT December 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.K. CPI Softer In November 2018
Reply   

U.K. CPI and RPIX chart

U.K. Headline November 2018 y/y CPI softer +2.30% rise. RPIX +3.10% y/y, lower.

BREAKING NEWS: U.K. CPI Softer In November 2018

GVI Trader john 09:32 GMT December 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

U.K. CPI November 2018

U.K. Charts





-- NEWS ALERT --

CPI m/m: +0.20% vs. 0.20% exp. vs. 0.10% prev.
CPI y/y: +2.30% vs. +2.30% exp. vs. +2.40% prev.




TTN: Live News Special Offer


GVI Trader john 09:22 GMT December 19, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 19 December 2018


For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:
Neutral
Spot EURUSD: 1.1397
Pivot Point: 1.1353

This Week: 1.1300-1.1406
Wed: 1.1361-1.1406
Tue: 1.1337-1.1402
Mon: 1.1300-1.1358

Fri: 1.1270-1.1365


20-day avg: 1.1353
50-day avg: 1.1394
100-day avg: 1.1493
200-day avg: 1.1706

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Dec 19: 68% (68%).

10-yr Bonds
US: 2.816% -1.8bp
DE: 0.249% +0.8
GB: 1.273% -0.7
JP: 0.034% -0.6

DAX: +19
Implied Open
DJ: +65
SP: +4.0



See the Amazing Trader Live!



GVI Forex Blog 09:04 GMT December 19, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 19 December 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Wed 19 Dec 2018
AA 09:30 GB- CPI
A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 19:00 US- Fed Bank Decision
Thu 20 Dec 2018
01:30 AU- Employment
AA 03:00 JA- BOJ Decision
AA 09:30 GB- Retail Sales
AA 12:00 GB- BOE Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 21 dec 2018
AA 09:30 GB- GDP
AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales
A 13:30 US- Durable Goods
AA 13:30 US- GDP/PCE Deflator
A 15:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


Wednesday Trading Checklist 19 December 2018

Jkt Abel 00:26 GMT December 19, 2018
OIL

WTI panicking with stox later, below 40 is a done deal?

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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