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Forex Forum Archive for 12/26/2018

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Mtl JP 23:13 GMT December 26, 2018
Next time when Trump says: "BUY!!!",,,You Buy!!!

Excellent hind-sight based prognosis for future

dc CB 21:22 GMT December 26, 2018
Plunge Protection Team About To Strike Again

Another reason --- not just the PPT
via ZeroHedge
++++++++++++++++++++++
We concluded our Friday post as follows:
For now, however, buckle up for what may be the single largest quarter-end pension rebalancing in history.

A few days later, with pensions seemingly deciding to take Christmas Eve off, Wednesday's torrid price action - and that over the next two days with quarter and year-end imminent - is the result of this "single largest quarter-end pension rebalancing in history", which is manifesting itself in the biggest percentage gain in the Dow since late March.


A Massive, $64 Billion Buy Order

GVI Trader john 21:13 GMT December 26, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 27 December

Late Wed
DJ +1086
10s 2.811%
CO $46.76

Livingston nh 21:07 GMT December 26, 2018
Plunge Protection Team About To Strike Again

Maybe Pres Trump should stay in Iraq until next week

haifa ac 20:52 GMT December 26, 2018
Plunge Protection Team About To Strike Again

"Nikkei up after collapse yesterday. Maybe sign of US stocks to go up today????"

Awesome

Livingston nh 20:34 GMT December 26, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 27 December

NYSE adv v. decl shares are 14 to 1 -- over 800 new lows w/ less than 460 declining issues shows the power of this afternoon's run-up lifting even the very weak morning stox

GVI Forex Blog 20:14 GMT December 26, 2018
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 26 December 2018
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 26 December 2018

london red 20:03 GMT December 26, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 27 December

2430 might see another pullback to 2400

Mtl JP 19:56 GMT December 26, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 27 December

ho

Mtl JP 19:55 GMT December 26, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 27 December

awesome percentages

Nasdaq up 3.74%
S&P 500 up 2.9%
DJIA up 2.69%

hoho

GVI Trader john 19:29 GMT December 26, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 27 December

DJ +530
10s 2.770%
CO $46.24

Livingston nh 18:58 GMT December 26, 2018
Equities Higher. 10-Yr Bond Yields Mixed. FX: USD Mixed And EUR Up. WTI Up

Yields are going higher - the 5 was under the 2 - the 10 yr 2.74 was only one Fed hike away from inversion and the 2 was 8 pips away from the Fed Funds level // meanwhile the real rate was negative out to the 10

The Fed was responsible for turmoil because it ignored the market and hiked - OR the President was responsible because he wanted to fire the guy who raised the rates that upset the market which would result in lower rates next year - OR (fill in other usual suspects)_____________

dc CB 18:45 GMT December 26, 2018
Equities Higher. 10-Yr Bond Yields Mixed. FX: USD Mixed And EUR Up. WTI Up

Two days after a very ugly 2Y Treasury auction on Monday (which preceded a flash crash in 2Y yield just ahead of the bond market closure on Christmas Eve), which prompted us to note that "the bond market is sending a worrying signal", moments ago the Treasury sold $41 billion in 5Y notes in what could only be called an abysmal auction as the bond market has just sent an even more worrying signal.

The auction, which priced at a high yield of 2.652%, or 23 bps below the November auction's 2.88%, tailed the When Issued by a massive, if not record 2.3bps, the widest tail going back for over 3 years.

ZeroHedge

GVI Forex Blog 18:00 GMT December 26, 2018
Thursday Trading Outlook 27 December
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Thu 27 Dec 2018
A 15:00 US- CB Confidence
Fri 28 Dec 2018
A 16:00 - EIA Crude


Thursday Trading Outlook 27 December

GVI Trader john 17:58 GMT December 26, 2018
Wednesday Trading Strategy For December 26, 2018

DJ +543
10s 2.770%
CO $45.74

Mtl JP 17:39 GMT December 26, 2018
Equities Higher. 10-Yr Bond Yields Mixed. FX: USD Mixed And EUR Up. WTI Up

nothing "mixed" about DJIA...
currently uP 441 pts (+2.02)

Nazdog UP 2.91% and S&P +2.05%

hail Trump ! (for now)

------------------------
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Livingston nh 16:34 GMT December 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

the little guys got out and the market will go up w/o them -- maybe the vaunted hedge funds can make some money

haifa ac 16:31 GMT December 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

" Mutual fund outflows rose to $56B"

1. where do these 56 b go now?
2. what do they do if the market starts rallying--chase it back?
3. This outflow is from winning positions or losing ones?

GVI 16:24 GMT December 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

(US) Mutual fund outflows rose to $56B in week ended Dec 19th, biggest week of outflows since Oct 2008 - ICI - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader john 16:13 GMT December 26, 2018
Wednesday Trading Strategy For December 26, 2018

DJ +28
10s 2.736%
CO $44.59

Mixed Risk

dc CB 15:58 GMT December 26, 2018
Wednesday Trading Strategy For December 26, 2018

The democrats will beat on Trump for expanding the debt, with one hand, while on the other hand, with the "media" cheering them on, they will follow the lead of a 29yo. (who never really ever had a job)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Democrats are lining up to support Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s “Green New Deal.”
The proposal could be the largest expansion of government since the Great Society or New Deal.
Ocasio-Cortez’s plan could cost tens of trillions of dollars.

Daily Caller

Mtl JP 15:42 GMT December 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

weak regional...
is a shocking understatement
-
in the meantime the Presidential scream to BTFD appears to be falling of deaf ears as stocks are basically just wallowing

GVI 15:23 GMT December 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

White House Econ Adviser Hassett: Fed Chair Powell's job is not in jeopardy; Powell is 100% safe - Fox Business interview

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader john 15:02 GMT December 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Another weak regional U.S. sentiment Survey.

GVI Trader john 14:59 GMT December 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Richmond Fed Index December 2018




NEWS ALERT
-8 vs. +16 exp. vs. +14 prev.


TTN: Live News

Livingston nh 14:40 GMT December 26, 2018
Wednesday Trading Strategy For December 26, 2018

CB - right // Pelosi may let PREZ self destruct because the Senate (depending on shutdown rez) is in the way

OTOH - Dems may find Pres Trump willing to deal w/Pelosi because the Repubs are his TRUE enemy // his BULLY PULPIT is still in the international arena, appointments (FED 2, Sup CT 1 maybe 2) and CinC

Mtl JP 14:36 GMT December 26, 2018
Wednesday Trading Strategy For December 26, 2018

Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth, on zerohedge is ahead of that game:

Dumping On The Donald

dc CB 14:28 GMT December 26, 2018
Wednesday Trading Strategy For December 26, 2018

You forgot - the Democrats become a majority in the House --- and they will unleash a torrent of attacks on the Trump admin.
Headlines will be in ample supply to feed the Algos.

Livingston nh 14:16 GMT December 26, 2018
Wednesday Trading Strategy For December 26, 2018

The turn of the calendar may be more important than usual -- MXN has not been adversely affected yet by energy (see NOK and CAD) and border issues (see US gov't shutdown) but it is due for a turn in the DUCKING STOOL // MEP elections should put pressure on EUR as the wings try to break the center -- a lot of lame ducks (e.g., Merkel, Juncker, Draghi) and wounded ducks (e.g., Macron) quacking -- and there is always Turkey (USD/TRY back above 6) and/or Russia to stir things up (see US w/d from M/E)

Next week comes the new sheriff in Brazil - BRL maay not take kindly to initial response at the Venezuela BORDER

And in January we see if Powell and Fed "talkers" throw the barking dogs some treat (balance sheet?) or beat them with a stick

and, oh yeah, BREXIT

GVI Trader john 14:01 GMT December 26, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:
Reply   
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Case Shiller-20 October 2018

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
5.03% vs. 4.80% exp. vs. +5.20% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 13:56 GMT December 26, 2018
Wednesday Trading Strategy For December 26, 2018



pic of S&P 200week (4yr) MA
historical action

ps / there is no guarantee about next implied price action
one's diligent treatment of own risk is paramount

Mtl JP 13:40 GMT December 26, 2018
Wednesday Trading Strategy For December 26, 2018



some market pundits are screaming about
the 200-week (4 yr) MA as
most of the time Support, historically speaking

ps / there is no guarantee offered that it will be so again
so treat your risk accordingly

Mtl JP 13:32 GMT December 26, 2018
Wednesday Trading Strategy For December 26, 2018

so far GOLD's HoD 1277

GVI Trader john 12:48 GMT December 26, 2018
Wednesday Trading Strategy For December 26, 2018

Early
DJ +106
10s 2.745%
CO $43.22

Today is a holiday in many centers

GVI Trader john 12:29 GMT December 26, 2018
Wednesday Trading Strategy For December 26, 2018


For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:
NEUTRAL
Spot EURUSD: 1.1377
Pivot Point: 1.1396

This Week: 1.1362-1.1439
Wed: 1.1378-1.1420
Tue: 1.1366-1.1425
Mon: 1.1362-1.1439

Fri: 1.1362-1.1474
Thu: 1.1372-1.1485

20-day avg: 1.1367
50-day avg: 1.1378
100-day avg: 1.1483
200-day avg: 1.1683

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


25bp funds hike Jan 30, 2019 odds=48% (50%).

10-yr Bonds
US: 2.794% +3.0bp
DE: 0.241% +1.0
GB: 1.284% +1.0
JP: 0.042% +0.2

DAX: -76
Implied Open
DJ: +126
SP: +3.9



See the Amazing Trader Live!

Mtl JP 12:21 GMT December 26, 2018
Bank of Japan

ACC / the "experts" - under the "leadership" of Haruhiko Kuroda - at the BoJ massively bought japanese stocks in order to increase total demand, to stop price deflation (by allegedly increasing inflation) and to sucker japanese savers into buying stock (or as they peddled it: to take on more risk)

One should think that haruhiko would have an appreciation for and understanding of the japanese plebs' character and mindset. But it has turned out that the only pigeons participating in the government's scheme is the gov't pension fund, blackrock and BoJ.

Now I could list a dozen reasons why the gov't scheme has failed. But that would be giving haruhiko advice at no charge.

Now the peddler of "three arrows" and numbnuts abe is screaming yet again for a hike in salarymens' wages allegedly to help them buy more - ahead of his tax hike.

The beautiful part about this gov't hallucination is its cause: fiat "money", unbridled printing paraded about as Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing by haruhiko. The more beautiful thing is that the average japanese joe is not buying into his b/s.

At least haruhiko and buddies now post w/s crap-out in nikkei dump have a better - ie lower priced - BTFD.
And never mind eroding market discipline.

GVI Forex Blog 12:18 GMT December 26, 2018
Wednesday Trading Strategy For December 26, 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Wed 26 Dec 2018
Various Boxing Day Holiday
Thu 27 Dec 2018
A 15:00 US- CB Confidence
Fri 28 Dec 2018
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude


Wednesday Trading Strategy For December 26, 2018

GVI Trader john 12:14 GMT December 26, 2018
Equities Mixed. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: EUR And USD Mixed
Reply   

Table of Key Current Market Rates

Sydney ACC 07:02 GMT December 26, 2018
Bank of Japan
Reply   
No comments so far of how losses being sustained by Bank of Japan on the decline in the Nikkei.

BoJ has been buying JPY 6 trillion in ETF since 2016. That makes BoJ effectively a top 10 shareholder in 40% of Japanese listed companies.

Until the beginning of October things were looking good. Since then, however, the index has declined from 24,200 to 19,500.

HK [email protected] 03:48 GMT December 26, 2018
It is not Trump, Powel, China trade war or Gov. Shutdown.
Reply   
.
All the blame on PPT group, which inflated the market year after year to monstrous proportions.
Now they have to fix back the damage they did.
At least and last they were exposed.

Mtl JP 02:33 GMT December 26, 2018
Winners and Losers

Donald J. Trump
Verified account
@realDonaldTrump
Follow Follow @realDonaldTrump
The only problem our economy has is the Fed. They don’t have a feel for the Market, they don’t understand necessary Trade Wars or Strong Dollars or even Democrat Shutdowns over Borders. The Fed is like a powerful golfer who can’t score because he has no touch - he can’t putt!
7:55 AM - 24 Dec 2018
-----------------

Mtl JP 02:18 GMT December 26, 2018
Plunge Protection Team About To Strike Again

SC feel free to test your theory:
put your money on it

Singapore SC 00:29 GMT December 26, 2018
Plunge Protection Team About To Strike Again

Nikkei up after collapse yesterday. Maybe sign of US stocks to go up today????

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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