Israel Dil 23:54 GMT February 1, 2018
s&p
jj - if major correction is not the case then we cannot go lower than 2750 and followed by rally to 3k
Syd 23:30 GMT February 1, 2018
AUD
Reply
Australia's 4Q CPI report for Australia carried a high degree of importance given the market was close to fully pricing an RBA rate hike before year end. But both core and headline inflation disappointed. Looking ahead, the disinflationary pulse from competition in the consumer sector and housing are expected to persist, and the recent rise in the Australian dollar will also act as a headwind, says Westpac. The bank remains of the view that the RBA will be on hold through 2018 and 2019 WSJ
lkwd jj 22:38 GMT February 1, 2018
s&p
Dil you mean 4 hour ? if i look at daily chart i see 2858 but i also see market having trouble closing above 10day ma for the 3rd day in a row. all time high 2878.5 but between now and there have to pass 2839.75 first...
london red 21:24 GMT February 1, 2018
eurusd
i wont go as far as viies but its poss mkt is setting up for a fall given that we are opening at the high of the day and nearing big tech lvls (on which i will try to post tom nearer nfp). its poss we get a new high tom and then a key reversal by close (u could have a scenario where nfp maybe doesnt light any fires and comes in as f/c where euro initially runs higher but fades away and tips into sell mode as stops are tripped). one can argue that usdjpy drop is a natural tailwind for euro but worry noting that specs are short jpy as much as they are long euros, so one can see a scenario where euro and usdjpy both fall and eurjpy really takes it across the chin and does the worst.
dc CB 20:58 GMT February 1, 2018
s&p
WeightWatchers alert.
After Close
AAPL and AMZN, GOOG
Israel Dil 20:42 GMT February 1, 2018
USD
Reply
nh - hearing dry cleaners get many 'dollar is king' suits for refreshment. what about yours?
Israel Dil 20:39 GMT February 1, 2018
s&p
jj - good luck next week... pay attention to the wider time frame and fall the the trap of false moves.
EUR/JPY sub 120... an illusion or near future term reality?
Dil
dc CB 20:37 GMT February 1, 2018
s&p
StoK Longs not wanting to risk the double wammy tomrow - the first before the Cash Open --- NFP, the second - time unknown - Das Memo dat Names Names (and the last bullet that those against the release have, Crash the Market and shift the blame to Trump and the Repubs behind Das Memo)
NY JM 20:16 GMT February 1, 2018
eurusd
Viies, plenty of bouts of profit taking this week and EURUSD is not trading today like a market that is overly long.
lkwd jj 20:06 GMT February 1, 2018
s&p
Reply
only above 2839.75 wed highs negates selling pressure.
Israel Dil 19:46 GMT February 1, 2018
eurusd
good luck viies
many here to appropriate if you gonna bother to update in real time (during next week?) possible when those trailings get locked by the aiming cannons. :-)))
Dil
Tallinn viies 19:43 GMT February 1, 2018
eurusd
Reply
NY JM 19:06 GMT - corporates do not care too much about techmical stuff. momentum maybe but after more than +400 pips in january needless to say they will want to take profits in any warning sign.
and most of the banks forecats for the 3 6 and 12 months in area 1,25 1,30. so with first month of the year 1,25 is good enough. of course able to hedge all year at 1,3000 in first quarter would be even better.
thats why hedge funds must push it above 1,2538 or else next week more sellers from coporates andreal money funds.
and lets not forget that speculative commonty by IMM has built up biggest ever net long positions more that 172 000 contrracts. if you are hf you do not want to be in a situation where someone else is starting selling and you need to hitlower bids insteed of being first who starts the profit taking- first few hundred points
lkwd jj 19:31 GMT February 1, 2018
usdjpy
Reply
market playing ping pong with 110.18 and 108.27.
PAR 19:21 GMT February 1, 2018
Big difference between PMI - GDP
Reply
PMI is mostly fake news biased by the proper interest of the respondents .
GDP measures the actual economy .
Correlation between PMI and GDP almost non existent .
NY JM 19:06 GMT February 1, 2018
eurusd
Viies, but it would be an inside risk so wouldn't you need a lower high/lower low to suggest a top is in?
Tallinn viies 18:56 GMT February 1, 2018
eurusd
Reply
it is important to get higher high in february. needs to do it quickly or profit taking kicks in. so we have one more day to try or otherwise weekly charts show lower high compared to week earlier. so after lower weekly high lot harder to push above as sellers will leave the orders below the top next week. Im not talking short term specs but real money stuff. corporates and pension funds. this week they trail their stop sell orders higer and higher as long as you have higher high in weekly.
for tommorow it is 99% sure thing (if there is any sure thing in fx) market will test 1,2538 previous week high.
I do not know if euro can make higher or not but at the moment I marked range for tommorw 1,2425 - 1,2525.
Israel Dil 18:44 GMT February 1, 2018
eurusd
the chance for monthly close =>1.2700 equals to the chance of Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement before April/2018 (or curry goes out the Indian diet). that what my marks telling me.
who knows, from ~11700 to ~13200 later this year. maybe :-)))
Tallinn viies 18:24 GMT February 1, 2018
eurusd
Reply
after strong january close I have marked for myself 1 quarter range 1,19sh - 1, 29sh.
so answer would be - if we see 1,18 we probably will see 1,15sh also.
Israel Dil 18:16 GMT February 1, 2018
eurusd
viies 17:52
sub 1 18 still this quarter?
dc CB 18:15 GMT February 1, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 2 February 2018
I thot that the 10Y at 2.6 was going to crack the stock market...
Da Memo --- now it's Tomrow. Trump to declassify and send back to Congress - so it's on them.
Tallinn viies 17:52 GMT February 1, 2018
eurusd
Reply
probably not...
as Europe is growing at 2.4% wow. highest in 10 years. need to buy euros I think :)
Tallinn viies 17:41 GMT February 1, 2018
Eurusd
Reply
Got short euro at 1,2490.
Stop at 1,2540
This news may help... no.
U.S. ECONOMY SEEN GROWING AT 5.4 PCT IN FIRST QUARTER VS 4.2 PCT ESTMATE ON JAN 29 - ATLANTA FED'S GDPNOW MODEL - Reuters News
PAR 17:35 GMT February 1, 2018
Bridgewater
Reply
Could Bridgewater go bankrupt in Italy if Italy forces the fund to close its shorts
Mtl JP 17:26 GMT February 1, 2018
Breaking News
in the meantime BTC still struggling to close
the GAP
PAR 17:25 GMT February 1, 2018
US Tech Stocks
Reply
US tech stock doing great and making huge profits .
Mtl JP 17:15 GMT February 1, 2018
Breaking News
Long run
When we are all dead
srce.: The Economist
GVI 17:15 GMT February 1, 2018
Breaking News
below ECB's Nowotny (hawk)
GVI Trader Jay Meisler 17:04 GMT February 1, 2018
Breaking News
EURUSD pops on this:
- Halting asset purchase program will bring a rise to long-term interest rates
- ECB will decide on the future of the asset purchase program by Sept
- Source TradeTheNews.com
Mtl JP 16:56 GMT February 1, 2018
Breaking News
john 16:12 just a routine maintenance by the cretins to appear folksy friendly and mislead you into giving them your trust as they try to peddle their warm n fuzzy feeling.
Reminder of whose poisonous heart is behind the sugared lipstick:
Mtl JP 12:41 GMT January 29, 2018
How You Can Trade With Inside Information: Reply
Maintaining price stability with unconventional monetary policy
Speech by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Council of the European Union, Brussels, 29 January 2018
... "we have expressed our intention to continue with our chosen pace of monthly purchases until we see “a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with our inflation aim”
Our assessment will be based on three criteria for the inflation outlook: convergence, confidence and resilience." ...
PAR 16:27 GMT February 1, 2018
Breaking News
European interest rates are just too surrealistic low and Draghi s is no longer mentally fit to run the ECB .
Mtl JP 16:23 GMT February 1, 2018
Breaking News
ECB officials are obviously anti USA ZEUS 15:18 GMT May 27, 2010
EUR/USD Day: Reply
It is crazy volatility which is great for traders. Blast up, blast down, blast all around. Trading is a blast!
Mtl JP 16:13 GMT February 1, 2018
Breaking News
and nh wants a pony
GVI 16:12 GMT February 1, 2018
Breaking News
ECB officials reportedly would like clearer interest rate guidance on concerns that vague language will increase market volatility - press
- Source TradeTheNews.com
Tallinn viies 16:11 GMT February 1, 2018
eurusd
Reply
sold my long euro position at 1,2470.
sq now. sell order to go short at 1,2490 with stop at 1,2540
PAR 16:10 GMT February 1, 2018
COMMODITIES
Reply
All commodities boosted by falling dollar .
Amman wfakhoury 16:09 GMT February 1, 2018
EURUSD
NY INU 13:50 GMT 02/01/2018
We still have 12485
then it will move between the said levels.
PAR 16:05 GMT February 1, 2018
VIX
Reply
VIX keeps dropping on central bank selling .
GVI Forex Blog 16:05 GMT February 1, 2018
GVI Data Calendar For 2 February 2018
Reply
February 1, 2018 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for February 2, 2018
- Far East: No Major Data
- Europe: EZ- PPI, UK- Construction PMI
- Americas: US- Employment, finalUniversity of Michigan, Factory Orders, Rig Count, COT Report
GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Fri 2 Feb 2018
AA 13:30 US- Monthly Employment
B 13:30 US- Trade
A 15:00 US- University of Michigan
GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Mon 5 Feb 2018
A All Day- Final Service PMIs
Tue 6 Feb 2018
A 03:30 AU- Reserve Bank Decision
B 13:30 US/CA- Trade
Wed 7 Feb 2018
A 15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 8 Feb 2018
AA 12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 9 Feb 2018
B 08:30 GB- Output
A 13:30 CA- Employment
GVI Data Calendar For 2 February 2018
dc CB 15:48 GMT February 1, 2018
The Memo
Reply
waiting on the shoe to drop. (notice the "spin")
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
(Reuters) - A secret Republican memo alleging FBI bias against President Donald Trump likely will be released on Thursday, a Trump administration official said, a move that would put the White House in direct confrontation with the top U.S. law enforcement agency.
Disregarding FBI, White House to release Republican memo
Mtl JP 15:37 GMT February 1, 2018
Nat Gas
window not a typo for "widow" ya ?
dc CB 15:35 GMT February 1, 2018
Nat Gas
they don't call NattyGas the WidowMaker for nothing.
The best traders have a window's walk built on top of their houses::)))
Mtl JP 15:33 GMT February 1, 2018
Nat Gas
jj / CB sub 2.85 --- how hungry is the stop hunter ?
lkwd jj 15:32 GMT February 1, 2018
Nat Gas
Reply
stopped out.
SaaR KaL 15:19 GMT February 1, 2018
CADJPY Shorts
Reply
from 89 ...adding till 89.9
tgt 86.9
Mtl JP 14:53 GMT February 1, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist For 1 February 2018
1.2452
perhaps the 1.24 - 1.25 option players are approximately evenly matched with their resources
rare event when both antagonists should come out winners (or losers)
Q: what will they do after the cut: share a bottle of vodka and scheme again ?
Bali Sja 14:41 GMT February 1, 2018
Sell cable
Reply
Sell while below 1.4240 IMHO
HK Kevin 14:39 GMT February 1, 2018
Selling pairs
Re AUD, I see a posssibility of correction back to 0.7880-0.79. Need to wait for weekly close tmr. My short EUR/AUD at 1.5510 is slightly underwater.
SaaR KaL 14:35 GMT February 1, 2018
Selling pairs
Corr: Buy AUDUSD for 0.8470 Next Month
SaaR KaL 14:34 GMT February 1, 2018
Selling pairs
Kevin I am Buying AUDUSD for 0.7450
HK Kevin 14:26 GMT February 1, 2018
Selling pairs
SaaR KaL 09:57 GMT 02/01/2018 - My Profile
GBPJPY, EURJPY, GBPAUD, EURAUD
tgt
152.5, 134.20,1.7310, 1.5200
Saar, great trade. My t/p 153.30 of short GBP/JPY hit. How about short EUR/AUD? Quite surprise of AUD weakness across the board.
PAR 14:18 GMT February 1, 2018
Mussolini / Berlusconi Draghi ?
Ray Dalio is advising Draghi of the ECB while shorting Italian insurance companies and banks.
Talking about conflicts of interests ? Who is fooling who ?
PAR 14:11 GMT February 1, 2018
Mussolini / Berlusconi Draghi ?
Billionaire hedge-fund manager Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates is upping its bets against Italian banks and insurers ahead of the nation’s elections next month
Mtl JP 14:02 GMT February 1, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist For 1 February 2018
London red ... usual plea heading into the cut:
any outsized bets in your world of options serving as attractants / protectors of particular price points ?
tia
NY INU 13:50 GMT February 1, 2018
EURUSD
Super sir! You are the master of masters :)
any other signals to get profit now.
Israel Dil 13:26 GMT February 1, 2018
Mussolini / Berlusconi Draghi ?
even Greenspan is recruited to play down the USD so why be busy in talking the EUR down for now?
Amman wfakhoury 13:23 GMT February 1, 2018
EURUSD
Amman wfakhoury 19:54 GMT 01/31/2018
12415 , 12447 , 12460 12485
All the above levels will be reached .
Trade accordingly
______________________________
12415 , 12447 , 12460 all reached
The only one in the world who confirms the next level and every hour movement
Mtl JP 13:01 GMT February 1, 2018
Nat Gas
2.866
..."mid 2.80's possible on that stop run" in progress
GVI 13:01 GMT February 1, 2018
Calls for stimulus tapering growing within Japan's central bank -- Asia.nikkei.com
Reply
TOKYO -- The Bank of Japan is starting to face skeptics within its own ranks who question the sustainability of massive monetary easing and point to its potential side effects as the economy continues on a recovery path.
Following a two-day policy meeting that ended Jan. 23, BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said there was only a "very limited debate" on the possibility of tapering monetary easing. But according to a summary of opinions voiced during the meeting, at least two board members argued for a change to the BOJ's approach.
It "may be necessary to consider what the desirable policy conduct would be going forward," one member said. The discussion also touched on re-examining the bank's interest rate targets and exchange-traded fund purchases -- a more extensive debate than the BOJ chief is willing to admit.
Calls for stimulus tapering growing within Japan's central bank
PAR 11:51 GMT February 1, 2018
Mussolini / Berlusconi Draghi ?
Draghi made Berlusconi and his croonies so rich with his Italy favoring policies that they are going to win the Italian elections .
Central planning gone wrong ?i
PAR 11:41 GMT February 1, 2018
Mussolini / Berlusconi Draghi ?
Reply
Incredible show of @Ale_Mussolini_ Alessandra Mussolini this morning on LA7!! She is a TRUE FIGHTER! Heroes like her and @berlusconi can SAVE #Italia from the hell the #SocialDemocrats brought! @forza_italia is the ONLY CHANCE for #Italy TO STOP FALLING!!
Mtl JP 11:04 GMT February 1, 2018
Bitcoin
9500
gap : still there , still teasing
Mtl JP 10:39 GMT February 1, 2018
JPY
sooner or later but just do not know even only approximately when.
clinging to the self appeasing "doctrine of the maturity of the chances” that the next play's chance is a factor of the preceding plays and that a series of outcomes of one sort should be balanced in the short run - your "sooner or later" - by other possibilities is a self-deluding fallacy. The longer you play the "sooner or later" odds theory (that an event that has not happened recently becomes overdue and more likely i.e. "sooner or later" to occur), the ratio of money lost to money bet will get closer to the expectation for that bet.
For a refresher practical look suggest Jay's missive:
How to Avoid the Forex Death Spiral
SaaR KaL 09:57 GMT February 1, 2018
Selling pairs
Reply
GBPJPY, EURJPY, GBPAUD, EURAUD
tgt
152.5, 134.20,1.7310, 1.5200
GVI Forex Blog 09:49 GMT February 1, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist For 1 February 2018
Reply
See the Amazing Trader Live
Ranges:
Likely Stop levels:
Stops above HOD and below LOD. Principal EURUSD focus on upside stops.
Other levels--
Ranges:
This Week: 1.2335-1.2475
Thu: 1.2385-1.2450
Wed: 1.2386-1.2475
Key Market Profiles--
10-yr & Stocks
Equities: Higher
U.S. 10-yr Yield at 2.741%, +1.9bp
2.70% pivotal (Note new higher level)
Remaining Calendar Today:
US- Weekly Jobless, Productivity, PMIs, Construction Spending, Natural Gas, CA- PMI
AT charts often presage market momentum shifts. AT support (red) and resistance (blue) levels can change before sentiment.
Thursday Trading Checklist For 1 February 2018
PAR 09:43 GMT February 1, 2018
VIX
Reply
VIX dropping like a stone , must be BlackRock and central bank selling .
PAR 09:38 GMT February 1, 2018
JPY
BOJ buying Japanese shares and USDJPY . Sooner or later this will end with hara-kiri .
nw kw 09:34 GMT February 1, 2018
eurusd
trump be bathing in oil bund pivot locked in, aud selling to gold, so oil up eur up and gbp loves oil... all in gbpaud, or audcad????????/// trump to moon riding dow from behind, not minlidun
UK JY 09:30 GMT February 1, 2018
JPY
Reply
Rising global yields => weaker JPY vs all but AUD
PAR 09:26 GMT February 1, 2018
European Secret Debt .
Reply
Oops! EU states are sitting on a huge mountain of secret debt. Contingent liabilities like govt guarantees, off-balance public-private partnerships, or public corporations debt may become actual govt liabilities if specific conditions prevail.
https://t.co/9WwnjchlDN via @welt
Amman wfakhoury 09:23 GMT February 1, 2018
EURUSD
Amman wfakhoury 19:54 GMT 01/31/2018
12415 , 12447 , 12460 12485
All the above levels will be reached .
Trade accordingly
___________________________________
12415 and 12447 reached from area 12380
The only one in the world who confirms the next level and every hour movement
Tallinn viies 09:10 GMT February 1, 2018
eurusd
Reply
eurusd tried to test 200 hour sma again but failed. jumped up sharply. now next target previous day high at 1,2475.
plan to to take profit at 1,2470. as daily range there almost done.
if able to move above 75 then next target already above 1,25 where is higher bollinger on daily chart.
Paris ib 08:46 GMT February 1, 2018
Australia Aims to Crash the Property Market
"The explosion in wealth has helped offset weakness in wages, so any lasting downturn in home prices could now act as a drag on consumer confidence and spending."
Guiding this down will be almost impossible. AUD bearish, particularly on the crosses as the USD is not exactly in great shape.
Property Peaked
Livingston nh 03:43 GMT February 1, 2018
USD/NOK
thanx dil - gonna ease into this one // USD/CAD my other oil favorite not doing so well
____
don't be too concerned about 19th century debt concepts -- think of it as currency w/ a coupon
Israel Dil 03:35 GMT February 1, 2018
USD/NOK
nh - the clearest parameter for long is the stop level. few pips below last week's low. maybe you see in front of many the beginning of some correction towards ~8.10
not my trade, just an opinion.
Israel Dil 03:19 GMT February 1, 2018
Not the Onion
cb 00:48
that story stinks literally, hopefully it to end as kosher accident. the whole truth, I assume not to be ever available about this accident/"accident".
dc CB 01:06 GMT February 1, 2018
Not the Onion
PS
this thing beats a John le Carré novel by a mile.
Kim Philby the Cambridge Four and later as the Cambridge Five, the number increased as more evidence came to light.
PoPCorn Limit Up again. just hope all this doesn't end up hurting the account.
Plus Beers
dc CB 00:48 GMT February 1, 2018
Not the Onion
what's at Stake...no not steaks.
Got Your Hats on?
the number of Repub Congress persons on board that train is tough to find. Try Googling : here I'll do it for you.
https://www.google.com/search?q=Number+of+Congress+on+the+Train&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8
News: The Train and the Memo
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Stronger Than Expected In January 2018
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