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Forex Forum Archive for 02/20/2018

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Livingston nh 22:11 GMT February 20, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 21 February 2018

The ECB is more than a year away from a change in rates and by that time the Fed will be at least a point higher (note the 10 yr Treasury v bund spread hit 217 -- 218 is the bogey)

The ECB will have a much harder time shrinking its balance sheet because of national concerns that the Fed does not have

Maybe this time it's different but rates (especially real rates) favor the USD
__
Carney was 'worried' about BREXIT - now he has FULL BREXIT in MAY w/ a 6 mo window -- a hike ?? Cable probably not going anywhere on that horse

Mtl JP 21:03 GMT February 20, 2018
market



hola dd re usdcad
200 dma is my directional bias changing price level only because I think it is so also to "whale" players

GVI Trader john 20:57 GMT February 20, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 21 February 2018

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GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--
EURUSD MACRO Bias: NEUTRAL
This Week: 1.2320-1.2437
Tue: 1.2320-1.2414
Mon: 1.2368-1.2437

Spot EURUSD: 1.2335
Pivot Point: 1.2356

20-day avg: 1.2382
50-day avg: 1.2157
100-day avg: 1.1955
200-day avg: 1.1768

Fed 25bp hike odds for Mar 98% (98%).

GVI Forex Blog 20:39 GMT February 20, 2018
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 20 February 2018
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 20 February 2018

gc dd 20:17 GMT February 20, 2018
market
Reply   
from what I see from auto traders

usdyen everyone started selling from 106.80 and their stops are all 108.20

audusd stops at 7800 and buying all the way down

usdcad everyone already short and alot of stops at 1.2680-90 after triggering at 45

no surprise though this has been the way to make money - but seems the correction may continue while the weaker positions get squeezed out.

london red 20:16 GMT February 20, 2018
Treasuries

re sterling, mkt is awaiting key jobs data tomo morn. carney and co have built up some expectation of inflation taking off so mkt is prob looking for some improvement when tomos wage data arrives. mkt is certainly long sterling so a downside surprise may be particularly brutal given the usd has recently perked up. given nothing has been decided with brexit and employers are a bit in limbo, i dont think we are going to see wages pressures as we may be seeing elsewhere. while sterling can certainly climb on a beat, i dont think we will get one tomo. i think the odds are skewed to an as f/c or miss on the wages.

GVI Trader john 19:01 GMT February 20, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 21 February 2018


Trading Ideas for 21 February 2018

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Wed 21 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday
A All Day flash PMIs
A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 15:30 US- EIA Crude
AA 19:00 US- Fed Meeting Minutes
Thu 22 Feb 2018
A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 09:30 GB- GDP
AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 23 Feb 2018
A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP
AA 13:30 CA- CPI


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Mtl JP 18:15 GMT February 20, 2018
What Does Not Maim Or Kill You Disappoints Me



GBP's HUFF and PUFF
HUFF to 1.4020
PUFF at ~1.4025-ish

Mtl JP 17:58 GMT February 20, 2018
What Does Not Maim Or Kill You Disappoints Me

ouch Walmart WMT -9.19%
s got to be doing damage to some portfolios

Mtl JP 17:07 GMT February 20, 2018
What Does Not Maim Or Kill You Disappoints Me

damn !! great business this bank fining business:

Banks have been fined a staggering $243 billion since the financial crisis

BUT ... cui bono ?

The actual cash the banks pay mostly goes to federal and state coffers without being earmarked for any particular use.

Singapore SGFXTrader 16:59 GMT February 20, 2018
Treasuries

Red, how will you see Gbpusd moving?

Breakout just occur on the hourly TF. Broke my SMA-365 line. Heading up.


london red 15:43 GMT 02/20/2018
how these auctions go with indicate how usd will trade into close. poor auctions will destroy this little bounce while strong interest will add to bounce and see usd move to next res lvls.

Singapore SGFXTrader 16:57 GMT February 20, 2018
Treasuries

Thanks CB for the zerohedge summary on the auction results.

dc CB 16:50 GMT February 20, 2018
US STOCKS

while AMZN up over $28

dc CB 16:49 GMT February 20, 2018
US STOCKS

WalMart big drag on the Dow -- down $10 at $94ish...10%

dc CB 16:44 GMT February 20, 2018
Treasuries

ZeroHedge sums it

Three, Six-Month Bill Auctions Sell Without A Glitch

Livingston nh 16:34 GMT February 20, 2018
Treasuries

jp - since de-hoarding will only be a fact AFTER the event it could be classified as an ASSumption

PAR 16:34 GMT February 20, 2018
US STOCKS
Reply   
FAANG + BAT to push US stocks higher for 7 th consecutive day .

Mtl JP 16:25 GMT February 20, 2018
Treasuries

nh is that an assumption or an immutable fact ?

Livingston nh 16:00 GMT February 20, 2018
Treasuries

We may have an interesting year because this is the first Fed hiking cycle that will see direct action by the Fed in the long end --- de-hoarding of the balance sheet will increase as the year progresses

NY JM 15:55 GMT February 20, 2018
Treasuries

In the past the shorter dated paper tends to do better than the longer dated bonds.From a buyers perspective there should be no rush to buy ans there is a lot more to come. Question down the road is how high a yield is needed to attract buyers.

Livingston nh 15:51 GMT February 20, 2018
Treasuries

short term paper has been scarce because of the fiscal/debt limit adjustments by Treasury -- should go pretty well but just the first of many

london red 15:43 GMT February 20, 2018
Treasuries

how these auctions go with indicate how usd will trade into close. poor auctions will destroy this little bounce while strong interest will add to bounce and see usd move to next res lvls.

dc CB 15:37 GMT February 20, 2018
Treasuries
Reply   
Yuge Supply auctioned today. 1mo, 3 mo, 6 mo, 2Y.
Tom is the 5ver, then the 7 on Thurs.

Higher yields BUT higher USD costing to get in on them

Fukuoka joyya 15:24 GMT February 20, 2018
long jpy!

i preffer euro

Mtl JP 15:12 GMT February 20, 2018
long jpy!

what is time horizon ?

Pivot 1.4004
1.3977
Sup 1 1.3956

Singapore SGFXTrader 15:06 GMT February 20, 2018
long jpy!

Buy GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

How about Gbpusd? Long or short?

Fukuoka joyya 15:03 GMT February 20, 2018
long jpy!

Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.2345 Target: 125/127 Stop: add later

bought now......happy trade,

Fukuoka joyya 14:34 GMT February 20, 2018
long jpy!

eurusd seems to rally...

Mtl JP 14:29 GMT February 20, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 20 February 2018

half hour to cut
only 42 pips away from 1.24

Fukuoka joyya 14:23 GMT February 20, 2018
long jpy!

worth trying support turn res...

joyya 14:02 GMT February 20, 2018
long jpy!

Sell USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

added 107.33...happy trade,

GVI Trader Jay Meisler 14:00 GMT February 20, 2018
EUR/GBP



EURGBP ,8816

Amazing Trader 4 hour chart shows .8778 as next key support with major supports below it. ,8800 likely to be pivotal.

Amazing Trader

Mtl JP 13:48 GMT February 20, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 20 February 2018

gut says eur 1.24 is pull-push tug number into cut
red - how do u c things ?
tia

USA ZEUS 13:47 GMT February 20, 2018
EUR/GBP

USA ZEUS 00:12 GMT February 16, 2018
EUR/GBP: Reply
Perhaps EUR/GBP is setup for a sizable reversal as GBP is poised for a comeback.

Cheers!
________________________________________________________

My dashboard says the breakout will be significant.
Cheers!

Mtl JP 13:44 GMT February 20, 2018
long jpy!

107.16
Res 3 107.51
Res 2 107.13
Res 1 106.85

Pivot 106.47

Sup 1 106.19
Sup 2 105.81
gv chartpoints
simple and clear

GVI Trader Jay Meisler 13:14 GMT February 20, 2018
Amazing Trader Update

EURGBP flows currently giving GBPUSD support and weighing on EURUSD. All shown in real time on the

Amazing Trader

GVI Trader Jay Meisler 11:28 GMT February 20, 2018
Amazing Trader Update
Reply   


EURUSD 1.2338

The one hour Amazing Trader EURUSD chart has been very clear and as you can see rewarded those who followed our strategies.

On the downside, 1.2275 is clear key support so only a break would fully negate the last leg to 1.2555.

On the upside, a move through 1.3597 would be needed to break the current momentum as shown by the blue trading lines on the chart

Sign up to see the Amazing Trader live now

Mtl JP 10:43 GMT February 20, 2018
What Does Not Maim Or Kill You Disappoints Me

AL - In November 2015, he said: "I sit on trading floors and wonder what drives people. I don't fully empathise with anyone who says they turn up to work and work harder because they can be paid a little bit more, but that may be a personal view. I've never been able to understand the way additional excess riches drive people to behave differently.

DB employs 97,000 people, most big peers have more like half that number

Cryan argued that a "big number" of staff at the company will ultimately be replaced by robots and other forms of technology as the firm embraces a "revolutionary spirit" going forwards.

Just in October for John Cryan

“At the moment the job is getting more fun every day. The heavy lifting is almost over.”

GVI Forex Blog 10:08 GMT February 20, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: German ZEW Survey For February 2018 Mixed
Reply   
German February 2018 ZEW Survey data mixed vs. forecasts.

BREAKING NEWS: German ZEW Survey For February 2018 Mixed

GVI Trader john 10:05 GMT February 20, 2018
Breaking News

ZEW Mixed vs. expectations.

GVI Trader john 10:04 GMT February 20, 2018
Breaking News
Reply   
German ZEW Survey February 2018



NEWS ALERT

Current Situation: 92.3 vs. 92.9 exp. vs. 95.2 prev.
Expectations: 17.8 vs. 16.2 exp. vs. 20.4 prev.





TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 09:53 GMT February 20, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 20 February 2018
Reply   

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--
EURUSD MACRO Bias: NEUTRAL
This Week: 1.2345-1.2437
Tue: 1.2345-1.2414
Mon: 1.2368-1.2437

Spot EURUSD: 1.2352
Pivot Point: 1.2403

20-day avg: 1.2380
50-day avg: 1.2145
100-day avg: 1.1949
200-day avg: 1.1762

Fed 25bp hike odds for Mar 21, 2018 98% (94%).

DAX +73
Futures-(FV)=implied open
DJ -194-(-30)= -164
SP -19.5-(-3.4)= -16.1
10-yr 2.915% +4.2bp



Tuesday Trading Checklist 20 February 2018

GVI Forex Blog 09:27 GMT February 20, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 20 February 2018
Reply   


Trading Ideas for 20 February 2018

Upgrade Your Trading. Try The Amazing Trader


GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 20 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday
A 10:00 US- ZEW Survey
Wed 21 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday
A All Day flash PMIs
A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 15:30 US- EIA Crude
AA 19:00 US- Fed Meeting Minutes
Thu 22 Feb 2018
A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 09:30 GB- GDP
AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 23 Feb 2018
A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP
AA 13:30 CA- CPI


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Tuesday Trading Checklist 20 February 2018

PAR 08:17 GMT February 20, 2018
US Treasuries
Reply   
Fixed Income – Treasury auction as bond market sentiment indicator

The US Treasury will auction the total amount of USD 258bn just weeks after the latest debt ceiling drama. This week’s auction which includes USD 151bn of short-term bills as well as bonds with two-, five- and seven-year maturities can be seen as a barometer for nervousness of bonds markets and will give indication on how much the US tax bill will be impacted by the extra money. Yields have been pushed higher last week already, thereby hitting a multiyear high. As only little important economic data is scheduled in the near-term, bond auctions will provide the clearest indicator on how much borrowing costs will have to rise in the face of the ballooning US debt burden. Last week, yields of the two year treasuries hit 2.21% which marks the highest level since 20

PAR 08:06 GMT February 20, 2018
LATVIA

USA has a long history of hitting small banks in small countries with money laundering charges . E.g. Banca Privada d'Andorra .

Afterwards BPA was cleared but the damage was done and a lot of money was lost .

By hitting Latvia, USA is hitting at Russia and Europe at the same time .

On the other hand ECB bank supervision under Draghi has been a complete disaster . Banks going bankrupt , NPL s, favoritism of Italian banks , bending the rules in all possible ways .

I can understand Germans prefer cash than holding money at the bank under current circumstances.

Fukuoka joyya 07:13 GMT February 20, 2018
long jpy!
Reply   
Sell USDJPY
Entry: 106.88 Target: open Stop: later

sold now..also sold audjpy 84.72....happy trade,

Dillon AL 02:18 GMT February 20, 2018
What Does Not Maim Or Kill You Disappoints Me



Perhaps John Cryan should consider taking a cut in salaryand reduce his outside appointments especially that one at Man Group

Dillon AL 02:04 GMT February 20, 2018
What Does Not Maim Or Kill You Disappoints Me

Just when VOL is increasing DB culls senior employees

Many of the unit’s problems are in its trading business, with fixed-income revenue dropping 29 percent and equities declining 25 percent last quarter. Advisory is faring better. The lender ranked ninth in advising on mergers globally in 2017, up one position from the previous year

Dillon AL 01:50 GMT February 20, 2018
LATVIA

The CB guy arrested supposedly for something unrelated whereas talk of 100k bribe for the ECB man. Really? who in their right mind would even consider only 6 figures ? Clearly as dil is alluding there is a lot more to this story but the ECBs response surely should be to just walk away. After all why break a habit of a lifetime and set a precedent when there may be far more pressing issues much further south like in Italy where I could tell a story or two about corruption
Impact on EurUsd has been muted because of the lack of ECB response

Israel Dil 01:12 GMT February 20, 2018
LATVIA

the most amazing point in this story in the coverage by the mainstream media (1st tier). all reported arrest of the head of central bank but none actually covered the story. honestly, I am afraid to post about the true issues running in the background.

conclusion: ultra mega powers are running the EURO bull camp. this story should dumped EURO further than the Greek fiasco. the Scandinavian ccys with their muted response told the whole story. in Europe, banksters are untouchable and are far above the law system.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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