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Forex Forum Archive for 04/25/2018
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dc CB 22:27 GMT April 25, 2018
FANG Landia Today
FB rpts = Boffo
FACEBOOK 1Q REV. $11.97B, EST. $11.41B
FACEBOOK 1Q EPS $1.69, EST. $1.35,
INCREASES BUYBACK BY $9BN
Facebook effective tax rate: 11%
Two-thirds of the entire population of the US and Canada supposedly logs in to Facebook at least once a month
Mtl JP 21:18 GMT April 25, 2018
pivots-s&p
jj u r right - just FX
lkwd jj 20:38 GMT April 25, 2018
pivots-s&p
i havent seen the s&p updated since 01/25/2016. on gvi
Mtl JP 19:38 GMT April 25, 2018
pivots-s&p
lkwd jj 18:49 I use
Foreign Currency Exchange Tables
GV Forex Pivot Points
for the day - keep it simple.
Dillon AL 19:02 GMT April 25, 2018
nikkei
jj regular hours local time 9-3:15 that also includes the lunch break
and yes your observation/comment not turning out the way one though 48 to 24 hours ago I agree with but we shall see
PAR 19:02 GMT April 25, 2018
Mega Short Squeeze
Reply
What did you expect . S&P held support and goes testing resistance .
Draghi will do the rest !
lkwd jj 18:55 GMT April 25, 2018
nikkei
today isnt turning out the way it looked like it would be yesterday, with stox not collapsing.but tomorrow is another day....
lkwd jj 18:49 GMT April 25, 2018
pivots-s&p
Reply
JP my platform shows both daytime and extended hours trading . which set of HLC do you use to determine pivots ?
lkwd jj 18:49 GMT April 25, 2018
pivots-s&p
Reply
JP my platform shows both daytime and extended hours trading . which set of HLC do you use to determine pivots ?
Dillon AL 18:47 GMT April 25, 2018
nikkei
jj yes
lkwd jj 18:35 GMT April 25, 2018
nikkei
Reply
Al >>>> did you sell it ?
Mtl JP 18:02 GMT April 25, 2018
Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Up & EUR Mixed
PAR for you (from GVI Archive)
enjoy!
-
Mtl JP 21:19:37 GMT - 11/22/2011
Bob Scully interview with Baron Rothschild, November 2007
Q.- Well, Baron Rothschild, I welcome your wisdom on that, and with your permission, sir, in the next half of the show, I’d like to tap your wisdom on money… on public debt, on Wall Street, on excesses, recovery, recession, depression… all these things that are assaulting… that are assaulting our senses these days… that’s all we read about in the papers, and I’m sure you’ve got a lot to say about that. So I’ll be right back to this chat with Baron Guy de Rothschild, talking to us from Paris. Be right back.
[BREAK]
Q.- Hi, welcome back. This is Bob Scully, and I’m speaking with a guest who’s sitting in Paris, but he could have been sitting in London or any number of cities, because his family, as we mentioned earlier, was one of the first multinational families, one of the first to succeed in various countries at the same time. He’s Baron Rothschild. Guy de Rothschild… he’s of the French branch, but speaks excellent English. But , Baron, as I mentioned, just before we left for the break, you were a banker for a number of years, and now retired from business, but your family, as we were discussing, created so many instruments in the financial world, like letters of credit, like transportation of valuables that didn’t involve physical means. When someone like you saw all the leverage on Wall Street a few years ago, you must have thought it was the same vision gone wild… I mean people buying companies with 1% equity. You must have shaken your head and thought it would never work. How did you react to that?
R.- Well, first of all, there was some really absurd behavior… absurd behavior happening, which… the absurdity being that it was accepted. I’m not talking about the illegal… the cheating. That’s a segment of its own. But the fact of people accepting to lend banks or individuals… to lend money on what? PayPal, hopes, good looks… I don’t know anything… it’s totally absurd. I don’t think that the inflation of those particular things we are referring to really upset the economy. But obviously it didn’t help… it didn’t help. I don’t think that… really it was too small in comparison to the whole world economy, which is always in play in any of these things, to have a world effect. It has certainly had a very bad moral effect. You know, when I think back on a time when… I believe you were still only a promise, in the middle of the 1920s, and when I became little by little conscious a little later of what had taken place in the huge slump, the famous October 29 collapse of Wall Street, you know, when the theatrical newspaper, I’ve forgotten its name, magazine…
Q.- Variety.
R.- Variety came out with the big title “Wall Street Lays an Egg”, which has become famous. Um… and in the early thirties, no one understood why… what’s wrong, what’s different between 32 and 28 if you like, because the mechanisms of inflation, creation of money or destruction of money, were not understood or had not been analyzed… I mean, it was a science that didn’t exist. But a little later, when it started being understood, it became obvious to even an amateur like myself that what had happened in Europe, and in America… more in America than in Europe was there really a fabulous inflation between 1922, 24 and 29. Speculation, creation of money, everyone was borrowing… everyone was speculating on anything, so therefore there was a real creation of money. Really a fabulous inflation that took place, and as things don’t go to the sky, there was one moment that trips on anything… the detail, whatever it is, someone asks to be reimbursed, and the whole thing, which is a bubble, bursts. And… and it bursts in the most dramatic way, naturally in the end, as you know.
Q.- Yes, and now… now we’re worried about something else… another kind of bubble, something relatively new in the world economy… it’s not the stock market that has the biggest bubble or the most worrisome one. It’s rich western governments, and it hasn’t been for capital expenditure like after the war… it’s for operating expenses. It’s not Latin America. It’s Europe, North America, and it’s just to pay the grocery bills. That’s a bubble… that’s very scary. What do you think of it?
R.- I believe that money owed by one country to another, or one country to banks, or whatever it is… it will never be paid back. It could only be paid back by borrowing more, which is the same thing… it won’t be paid back. The situation is what it is. Loans were… loans were made to South America… practical none have or will be reimbursed. The countries were broke. So… or to Africa, so it has to be consolidated… if it’s done by banks, it has to be consolidated by governments.
Q.- But is there a risk of massive deflation? Will, for instance, Canada and the United States that owe a lot of their money to foreign banks in Japan or elsewhere… can they go broke?
R.- No… it doesn’t work that way. If you look historically, you realize that borrowing and at the later stage government borrowing, or borrowing from one country to another on the virtual governmental level, something that has always existed that has grown ever since, I don’t know… King Solomon, with his silver mines in Israel or in Palestine. And it has never been reduced… the total volume of indebtedness has grown faster or slower, depending on time, but it has never disappeared… it has never been contracted. Impossible. What happens is… as time goes on, currencies go down. Now I’m not talking about the currency of one versus the other. I’m talking of… the…
Q.- Buying power.
R.- Exactly. The buying power of even… leaving out all form of voluntary evaluation, of floating or whatever it is in the currency… the buying power of currencies goes on forever… and goes down. I mean, the buying power… the demolition or the erosion goes on forever, and that’s why… I mean, world indebtedness is bearable, because actually the more erosion of the buying power is against the creditor, the chief creditor in fixed terms, and the power that he has, the buying power that he has acquired goes down and down and down and down…
Q- But that takes us away from deflation and… Baron, and brings us back to the psychology of inflation, which encourages the borrowing in the first place, and that’s why, I guess, some people in North America are starting to say, well, let’s print some money and get out of the mess the easy way.
R- Yes. But now that’s a different aspect… it’s a different aspect because, in one case, I thought you were asking about what I call global indebtedness, that including… including the case of Canada and America, which is not an important one, because you are so much part of the same community. The same economic community. But therefore that’s one thing. Now the other thing is that people fear that right now the slump, the depression… call it as you like, is due to disinflation, which is the opposite. I don’t know if it is or not. It’s extremely difficult and only very, very, very clever specialists can give you the answer… they’re usually wrong. So we leave that out… but if there is this inflation, or, if you like, an equilibrium, which is neither disinflation or inflation, maybe a very, very small amount of inflation would help it. Or at least fighting potential disinflation… it could only be worthwhile if it’s done on a world scale… world being the whole developed… developed economy of the world. And then in a very, very, very controlled way. Inflation as such is morphine… it’s morphine when you have a pain, and then you kill the pain for a time, and then you die, because of the medicine… so…
Q- Because you’re addicted.
R- Yeah… well, because it kills you. You know what I mean… some people want a painkiller, people who are very sick… and I tell you, well, you might get well, but if you use that painkiller, it will finish you off. And… so that inflation is a painkiller, and, in most cases than others, it’s a lethal painkiller. So therefore one has to resist it… whatever is the urge. But a very limited amount of reflation… is one of the words used in my country… worldwide, highly controlled, strictly controlled, maybe would be helpful, but it has to be universal, because otherwise, if… let’s say France alone gets some inflation, the benefit of the inflation will be immediately outside of France, and not for the benefit of the French. And it will go, I don’t know, to Japan, to Germany, to wherever, to be now used, and the damage will remain for the French later.
Q.- Well, Baron, you’ve had plenty of wisdom for us…and you’ve given us good medicine for the world economy, and food for thought, and none of that will finish us off I’m sure… and I wish you, sir, good luck and good health.
R- Thank you very much indeed. I appreciate doing this very much.
Q.- I hope you enjoyed meeting Baron Rothschild. He didn’t get a chance to tell us how to reduce our taxes… too bad, I was just getting to that, but maybe next time. And until our next show, this is Bob Scully, have a great way. Thanks.
Livingston nh 17:26 GMT April 25, 2018
Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Up & EUR Mixed
jp - Treasurys are currency w/ a coupon so as safe as money
Domestic purchasers put in their dollars and get same dollars back - inflation erodes the purchasing power but your advantage is that at least part of the fixed yield offsets that loss
Foreigners convert to dollars w/ added risk of currency loss and/or gain - theory says higher US rates good for higher USD (but everything is relative) which means MORE local currency
SO SAFE at maturity -- everything's GOOD
Mtl JP 17:12 GMT April 25, 2018
Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Up & EUR Mixed
jj 17:03 here is my wet dream:
your name is munchkin and you are sending that Achtung Default Imminent (ie this weekend after market closes) memo to china and Tokyo. But before u do u send it to you buddies In The Circle - which includes me. *..*
lkwd jj 17:03 GMT April 25, 2018
Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Up & EUR Mixed
i never said i agreed with that theory. it might have been old school when rest of world was less developed, but with china japan and russia eurozone coming into markets , i dont think its relevant anymore. $ is not alone anymore. we can default like greece and italy the way they spend in the swamp these days.
Mtl JP 16:51 GMT April 25, 2018
Equities Lower. 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Up & EUR Mixed
in this context:
Rising yields can cause heartburn for investors. After all, U.S. government bonds are considered the world’s safest asset, which means that moves can send ripples through global financial markets.
Dillon AL 16:19 GMT April 25, 2018
FANG Landia Today
My mother would use the expression and she used to be a ballerina amongst other skills. No I was not around back then thankfully
Mtl JP 16:10 GMT April 25, 2018
FANG Landia Today
AL 16:04 - so u around 1940 - 2018 = 78 - say 15 as a teen ...
and u still trading ? hopefully not because u have to LoL
Dillon AL 16:04 GMT April 25, 2018
FANG Landia Today
Boffo originated as a word in the 1940s particular in the theatrical world
PAR 15:42 GMT April 25, 2018
Macron
Macro big specialist in spending others people money .
lkwd jj 15:41 GMT April 25, 2018
FANG Landia Today
sorry. with all the abbreviations used here , i thought it was another. never heard that word before.
Mtl JP 15:28 GMT April 25, 2018
S&P
200dma 2,608.86
dc CB 15:20 GMT April 25, 2018
Auctions
5Y up today - currently 2.835
the 2Y went off yest a 2.5%
PAR 15:19 GMT April 25, 2018
Macron
Reply
Macron always seems to forget he is the president of France , not the president of Europe .
He talks for France which is only a small - heavily indebted communist - part of Europe
PAR 15:16 GMT April 25, 2018
VIX
Looking for one more major short squeeze in DOW and S&P.
Today would be perfect . Apple getting more goodies from Trump and FB making mega profits on all the free publicity it got .
Fasten your seatbelt .
dc CB 15:15 GMT April 25, 2018
FANG Landia Today
apparently you are not a native american english speaker.
Definition of boffo for English Language Learners
: extremely good or successful
Mtl JP 14:50 GMT April 25, 2018
VIX
why not ?
tia
PAR 14:41 GMT April 25, 2018
VIX
Reply
Short May VIX futures 18.20 . Market can't go down every day ?
PAR 14:26 GMT April 25, 2018
S&P
Reply
As long as S&P closes above 2600 , Trumps bull markets is intact and still has been phenomenal .
I don't think PPT will allow a close below 2600 . That would make Trump too sad .
dc CB 14:15 GMT April 25, 2018
FANG Landia Today
Reply
TWTR rprtd boffo but sold off as CASH opened.
FB rpts after market
AMZN tmr after market
APPL May 1 after market
if these follow the pattern of Boffo Rpt but Selling Off anyway when CASH Opens... then cud be Biggly Uggly for the April/May transition in SToX
Mtl JP 13:40 GMT April 25, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 25 April 2018
what is potentially TRAGIC - for me - is that seeing as I drink wine while trading and as wine price goes uP I will be (theoretically) reducing my 8-10 glasses per session consumption will mean that as I drink less I will be increasing my giving more sh!t about risk
Livingston nh 13:01 GMT April 25, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 25 April 2018
BRL, TRY, SGD and KRW are also reacting to US rate moves
NOK, MXN and CAD are not following the oil script set out by producers as US rates rise
______
The FOMC has promoted one R* believer and added another to the BoG -- see how long that little gem survives as an issue
Just a bit of inflation scare is the missing ingredient
GVI Trader Jay Meisler 12:26 GMT April 25, 2018
Science of Trading
Reply
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Mtl JP 12:24 GMT April 25, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 25 April 2018
ok.. apologies: neglected the so-what :
I am focusing on the JPY in light of US stocks outlook
as the yen has a negative correlation.
Bottom Line
Sell usdjpy rallies 109.25/50/75
ps // u r adult.
due diligence and respect of your risk is incumbent upon you.
GVI Trader john 10:06 GMT April 25, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 25 April 2018
For AT Trading
See the Amazing Trader Live!
GVI EURUSD MACRO Bias:
NEUTRAL
This Week: 1.2181-1.2245
Wed: 1.2186-1.2239
Tue: 1.2181-1.2225
Mon: 1.2197-1.2290
Fri: 1.2249-1.2354
Spot EURUSD: 1.2186
Pivot Point: 1.2230
20-day avg: 1.2318
50-day avg: 1.2328
100-day avg: 1.2206
200-day avg: 1.2002
Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points
Fed 25bp hike odds for Jun 13: 94% (94%)
10-yr Bonds
US: 3.020% +3.0bp
DE: 0.643% +1.2bp
GB: 1.558% +1.3bp
DAX: -193
Implied Open
DJ: -66
SP: -8.2
GVI Trader 08:56 GMT April 25, 2018
USD
3.018% last
GVI Trader 08:27 GMT April 25, 2018
USD
Reply
Yields up, USD up
10 year yield 3.024%
STG AndersenBands 01:19 GMT April 25, 2018
Daily Trading Ideas And Analysis
Highlights going into Wednesday, 25 April-
Range expansion is anticipated soon for $EURGBP $GBPAUD $GBPCAD $GBPUSD $USDCAD $USDCHF
Some of the potential structure changes include the following:
Bullish - $GBPAUD $GBPCHF $GBPCAD
Confirmation utilizing tactical tools is suggested for these actionable trades.
The short-term momentum heatmap continues to define the price action.
Attached to this post is the current heat map ranking of the 8 major currencies from highest momentum (1) to lowest (8).
Trades are structured by following the rankings moving up or down along with buying strength and selling weakness.
Make it a great day!
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Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts
GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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