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Forex Forum Archive for 05/11/2018

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dc CB 22:19 GMT May 11, 2018
Deep Thoughts
Reply   
The Price of Protecting ( )
From Theives


Wealthy Are Hoarding $10 Billion Of Bitcoin In Bunkers

GVI Trader john 20:37 GMT May 11, 2018
Bank Of England's Carney -- "Mr. Excitement"

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Bank Of England Changes Market Expectations For Policy Last Thursday saw global financial markets keenly focused on the latest Bank of England policy decision. A month ago, traders had a 25bp rate hike locked into their market expectations. However just about three weeks ago Bank of England Governor Carney had sent signals to the markets that a hike at this meeting was unlikely due to an unforeseen slowdown in 1Q18 growth. Many in the markets were then feeling that Carney had only postponed a rate hike until August of this year and thus were expecting the BOE to take a hawkish tone after the conference. As expected, the governing council voted to keep rates steady, but market hawks were disappointed by the 7-2 vote in favor of a steady policy for a third straight time...MORE

Bank Of England's Carney -- "Mr. Excitement"

dc CB 20:36 GMT May 11, 2018
Commitment Of Traders Report for 8 May 2018 Data

Swissy

put in perspective --- 98K Open Interest.
Commercials are the long ones.
SF is not a fav lost it's luster as SAFE when they did that peg or whatever they screwed the Safety Pooch.

Given Missey May and Fräulein Merkel, Macron, Trump, maybe it's like taking a position in Gold when one thinks there will be War

SF COT

GVI Trader john 20:06 GMT May 11, 2018
Commitment Of Traders Report for 8 May 2018 Data

Any ideas about what is going on in USDCHF positions? I checked the data and they apparently are correct.

GVI Trader john 19:54 GMT May 11, 2018
Commitment Of Traders Report for 8 May 2018 Data
Reply   

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP


Net EUR JPY COT Positions



Click on chart for EUR COT Details






Click on chart forJPY COT Details



X+++++
Net GBP and CHF COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details




Net AUD and CAD COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details




G+++++

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: CAD, AUD, Gold, Oil


Net Crude, Gold, S&P and 10-yr Positions







Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details




GVI Forex Blog 19:17 GMT May 11, 2018
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 11 May 2018
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 11 May 2018

Mtl JP 18:35 GMT May 11, 2018
Extra Extra Read All About It.

UK Savers to Carney: 'I Forgot the Safe Word!'

Friday, 5/11/2018 19:00
Household bank deposits +39% since crisis as rates plunge...

TWO YEARS of sin, ten years of purgatory, and a $4.9 billion balloon payment to reach contrition, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault.

This week's full and final settlement with the US Department of Justice over pumping out crappy mortgage-backed bonds between 2005-2007 means the Royal Bank of Scotland is finally drawing a line under the financial crisis which followed.

Penance served, says the Treasury's PR briefing, RBS may now be clear to see the UK government sell its 72% shareholding at last, bought in the October 2008 bail-out of Britain's bloated and miscreant banks.

GVI Trader john 17:04 GMT May 11, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Baker Hughes Rig Count


NEWS ALERT
U.S.
Total: 1045 vs. 1032 (+13) prev.
Oil: 844 vs. 834 (+10) prev.

Canada: n/a vs. 86 (n/a)


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 16:06 GMT May 11, 2018
Extra Extra Read All About It.

French in angst - now if only they would go to action rather than just paroles:

Iran : "Il est temps que l'Europe se dote des mêmes instruments que les Etats-Unis pour défendre ses intérêts économiques", selon Bruno Le Maire

"Voulons-nous être des vassaux des Etats-Unis qui obéissent le doigt sur la couture du pantalon ?" Invité d'Europe 1 matin vendredi, Bruno Le Maire, Ministre de l'Economie et des Finances a plaidé, comme Emmanuel Macron, pour la mise en place d'une "souveraineté économique européenne"

Mtl JP 14:49 GMT May 11, 2018
Speads

nh every CB mofo is mortally fearful of what pushing the assets back into the market will do to the market - no source just MHO

Livingston nh 14:42 GMT May 11, 2018
Speads

jp - a detail but raising rates before pushing the assets back into the market caused this potential inversion

Mtl JP 14:17 GMT May 11, 2018
Speads

nh 11:07 nothing
only that non-voter bullard says
Worried yield curve could invert as soon as September
that interest rates don't need to rise
that economy is in very good shape and

GVI Forex Blog 14:09 GMT May 11, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. University of Michigan Survey Flash Beats In May 2018
Reply   
Preliminary May 2018 Michigan Survey beats expectations. Data revision in two weeks.
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey chart

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. University of Michigan Survey Flash Beats In May 2018

Mtl JP 14:06 GMT May 11, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

uP ~104pts DJ at 8 week high

GVI Trader john 14:01 GMT May 11, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Index May, 2018



NEWS ALERT
98.8 vs. 98.3 exp. vs. 98.8 prev


RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 14:00 GMT May 11, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

in 13:21 Draghi reminds me of greenspans excitement about /significant developments in technology and in the pricing of assets have enabled innovations in financial instruments that allow risks to be separated and reallocated to the parties most willing and able to bear them and the degree of specialization by financial intermediaries/ somehow thinking the imitating CBanking meddlers replace Gold standard

Greenspan Banking evolution

GVI Forex Blog 13:48 GMT May 11, 2018
Bank Of England's Carney --
Reply   

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Bank Of England Changes Market Expectations For Policy Last Thursday saw global financial markets keenly focused on the latest Bank of England policy decision. A month ago, traders had a 25bp rate hike locked into their market expectations. However just about three weeks ago Bank of England Governor Carney had sent signals to the markets that a hike at this meeting was unlikely due to an unforeseen slowdown in 1Q18 growth. Many in the markets were then feeling that Carney had only postponed a rate hike until August of this year and thus were expecting the BOE to take a hawkish tone after the conference. As expected, the governing council voted to keep rates steady, but market hawks were disappointed by the 7-2 vote in favor of a steady policy for a third straight time.

Bank Of England's Carney -- "Mr. Excitement"

Mtl JP 13:38 GMT May 11, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

what the policymakers need is
to be tarred n feathered and put facing rearward on donkeys and pararded out into lalla-land

GVI 13:21 GMT May 11, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

ECB's Draghi: policymakers need to address fragilities in Euro Zone; Structural reforms are still a priority at the national level - Backstop for the single resolution fund is still missing - People expect the euro to deliver its promised stability and prosperity - We need some form of common stabilization function to keep countries from diverging too much in a crisis - Source TradeTheNews.com

Mtl JP 13:03 GMT May 11, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 11 May 2018

poloz s sidekick wilkins yaks in 10 (low signif)
in 15 yaks mario - needs to prepare players for culling of their asset holdings

Mtl JP 12:49 GMT May 11, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 11 May 2018

USDCAD - excellent trade parameters:
Pivot 1.2789 = res
200 day 1.2641 supp

GVI Forex Blog 12:48 GMT May 11, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: Canada Employment Data Mixed vs. March 2018
Reply   
Canada Jobs: Miss expectations, but good increase in full-time employment in April 2018.

BREAKING NEWS: Canada Employment Data Mixed vs. March 2018

Mtl JP 12:43 GMT May 11, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 11 May 2018

I a biased against usd
and for gbpusd uP

london red 12:42 GMT May 11, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 11 May 2018

11963 is 23.6 of recent top to bottom fall, if clears this can run some more stops

london red 12:40 GMT May 11, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 11 May 2018

stocks appear to be breaking out of triangle to upside (wkly close abv 2700 redq this wk) which will help risk/euro and while mkt is generally v long euro, those still holding long euros will not be shaken out until new low, which isnt poss after softer than f/c (although taken at face, firm) us inflation so those stops on offer with be topside short specs.

london red 12:35 GMT May 11, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 11 May 2018

cpi a small reality check in that while euro inflation soft us inflation while firmer, isnt running away. so not a one way trade, certainly not after such a good run in short term. so fade euro rally today but poss mon/tuesday you may see high. hard to say if 200dma will be beat but it shudnt on a closing basis all things known and considered as of now.

GVI Trader john 12:33 GMT May 11, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Canada EMPLOYMENT April 2018



NEWS ALERT

Jobs: -1.1 vs. +20.3K exp. vs. +15.4K prev.
Full-Time +28.8 vs. +16.6 vs. -35.9 exp
Rate: 5.80% vs. 5.80% exp. vs. 5.80% prev.



RELEASE: StatCan Monthly Employment Report





TTN: Live News Special Offer



+++++++++


U.S. Import Prices April 2018



NEWS ALLERT
+0.30% vs. +0.00% exp. vs +0.00% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Mtl JP 12:06 GMT May 11, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 11 May 2018



pre-NY Friday session u want to estimate and take decision whether players will be wanting to bag some profits today (a usd negative).

The bigger time bar question to gauge is IF they will be wanting to BoD the dollar.

To answer that need to gauge the what is the bottom line so-what of the slowdown in inflation (ref john 12:35 GMT May 10, 2018 U.S. CPI April 2018 numbers) as it relates to players giving odds of the Fed gang raising rates.

GVI Trader john 11:48 GMT May 11, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 11 May 2018

UPDATE: Import Prices now seen +0.50% m/m data @ 12:30 GMT.

GVI Trader john 11:36 GMT May 11, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 11 May 2018

2.962% -0.9bp
DJ +43

Mtl JP 11:29 GMT May 11, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 11 May 2018

us stoks looking to open slightly uP
- import prices out at 8:30
- U of M consumer-sentiment at 10 a.m.

Bullard yaks at 8:30 on economic and monetary policy

GVI Trader john 11:17 GMT May 11, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 11 May 2018

REPOST Friday, 11 May 2018 Board member:Mario Draghi Event:Speech by the President at 8th edition of The State of the Union organised by EUI in Florence, Italy. Time:15:15 CET (13:15 MT) Venue:Palazzo Vecchio, Piazza della Signorina, Florence

Livingston nh 11:07 GMT May 11, 2018
Speads
Reply   
2/10 treasury down to 41
5/10 (whale trade?) down to 13

What can go wrong?

Livingston nh 10:39 GMT May 11, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 11 May 2018

The Iran nuclear deal is causing ripples - so far markets see oil directly affected but Merkel comment yesterday and the political situation in Italy show strains still to come

The cries of "trade war" (wolf) miss the bigger risk trade highlighted by Merkel - will Germany or even EU legislate non compliance w/US sanctions? Embargo, boycott, sanctions, secondary applications of each and national resistance to extra-territorial law (blockade) or violence (pirates) to domestic businesses trading abroad are far more damaging to trade than simple price mechanism of tariff

Two parties of seemingly opposing ideological positions finding common ground in Italy, just as the Iran situation is about to cause new immigration problems and the debt/banking situation is facing the reduced demand of a major buyer (ECB)


Europe has some big decisions

london red 10:26 GMT May 11, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 11 May 2018

so worst case scenario is its a case of trade management all way up to 12150-12250 if necessary as it will only be noise and the closing levels are far more important.

london red 10:24 GMT May 11, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 11 May 2018

u have a bunch of res 120-121 nxt wk which shud be enough to cap topside. there is an argument for higher since weve fallen flat from 124 but it would need to be data related and i cant see anything in next week that can give us european data beats.

london red 10:22 GMT May 11, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 11 May 2018

as you say no real action so only trade to look for. i think can see fib by 11710 or monthly cloud base by 11685 once downside recommences later this month. id expect May data to be better from the eu (released june) so i wouldnt bank on any more downside but if softness extends, then downside extends to 115. thats not a base case thou, looking for the ~117 then reassess.

bali sja 10:18 GMT May 11, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 11 May 2018

extremely unlikely to see 1.2040 beaten on closing basis

bali sja 10:13 GMT May 11, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 11 May 2018

agree 100% red, thanks for confirmation
if stopped on initial play, will sell again bigger near 12020 with stop 12073 still looking for latest low if not new lows
that's the only plan i see for today

london red 10:00 GMT May 11, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 11 May 2018

euro upper channel is at 11935 (also 200hma). if overcome then 10dma by 11946. todays top should be between 10dma and 200dma by 12019. 2.5 yards of 119 and over a yard of 120 today at the cut. cpi just slightly put brakes on usd (although usdjpy might improve on risk on by end of day) but euro still a sell on blip in this correction from 126 highs.

GVI Trader john 09:33 GMT May 11, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 11 May 2018

2.949%
DJ +21

GVI Trader Jay Meisler 09:10 GMT May 11, 2018
Amazing Trader Update
Reply   
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GVI Trader john 09:06 GMT May 11, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 11 May 2018

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GVI EURUSD MACRO Bias:

NEGATIVE

This Week: 1.1822-1.1997
Fri: 1.1891-1.1926
Thu: 1.1842-1.1947
Wed: 1.1822-1.1897
Tue: 1.1838-1.1939

Spot EURUSD: 1.1920
Pivot Point: 1.1904

20-day avg: 1.2123
50-day avg: 1.2247
100-day avg: 1.2234
200-day avg: 1.2021

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Jun 13: 100% (100%)

10-yr Bonds
US: 2.951% -2.4bp
DE: 0.545% -0.2bp
GB: 1.4240% +0.4bp

DAX: -12
Implied Open
DJ: +23
SP: +0.9




GVI Forex Blog 08:26 GMT May 11, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 11 May 2018
Reply   

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Fri 11 May 2018
AA 06:00 CA- Employment
A 14:00 US- Prelim University of Michigan


GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 15 May 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
AA 09:00 EZ- GDP
Wed 16 May 2018
A 09:00 EZ- final HICP
A 12:30 US- House Starts/Permits
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 17 May 2018
AA 01:30 AU- Employment
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 14:00 US- Leading Indicators
Fri 18 May 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Friday Trading Checklist For 11 May 2018

bali sja 07:47 GMT May 11, 2018
buy usd on dips still
Reply   
euro looks struggling to go beyond 11940-50, can try all pops towards 11950 with stop above 11980 today

STG AndersenBands 02:19 GMT May 11, 2018
Daily Trading Ideas And Analysis



Daily Forex Top & Bottom Momentum List - 11 May 2018
Daily list of top 5 and bottom 5 short-term and long-term momentum rankings out of 28 primary currency pairs and crosses:

Top 5 short-term momentum: $CADCHF $AUDNZD $USDCHF $AUDCHF $CADJPY

Bottom 5 short-term momentum: $AUDCAD $GBPUSD $EURCAD $GBPCAD $NZDCAD

Top 5 long-term momentum: $USDCHF $EURCHF $CADCHF $GBPCHF $EURNZD

Bottom 5 long-term momentum: $NZJPY $NZDUSD $AUDUSD $AUDCAD $CHFJPY

STG AndersenBands 01:28 GMT May 11, 2018
Daily Trading Ideas And Analysis



Highlightsgoing into Friday, 11 May-

Price volatility has been our main theme all week. Thursday was no exception.

Short-term momentum has turned positive for $EURGBP and negative for both $GBPAUD and $USDCAD.

Additionally, $GBPCAD and USDCAD have shifted to a bearish structure while $CADJPY has turned bullish.

Similar to the past few days, the image with this post highlights the daily range as a percentage of the normalized typical range for the 8 major currencies.
Values shaded in blue exceed 1 standard deviation above typical range.
Values shaded in orange exceed one standard deviation below typical range. Values highlighted in yellow exceed 2 standard deviations above or below typical range.
Bold black values are highest or lowest of at least 20 days.
Underlined values are lower than prior day.

Make it a great day!

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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