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Forex Forum Archive for 07/18/2018

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
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Mtl JP 20:28 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

The So What that "EU negotiators reportedly are discussing Ariticle 50 extension" was worth a Northerly whipsaw in GBP between 1.3059 - 1.3082 and potentially shows markets bias about any minute prospect of UK staying somehow / anyhow tied to the EU (i.e. denied its independence)

Mtl JP 20:12 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

begging .... BEGGING ??
s there some other meaning to that term than what Webster says:

: to ask for as a charity (see charity 1a) �begging food from strangers
�begged him for some change

2 a : to ask earnestly for : entreat �beg forgiveness
�I beg your pardon.

b : to require as necessary or appropriate �a scene that begged to be photographed

3 : evade, sidestep �begged the real problems

or maybe - for perspective - find out who at tradethenews penned that.

GVI 19:59 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

EU negotiators reportedly are discussing Ariticle 50 extension - press - The UK invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union on 29 March 2017, begging the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union (Brexit). The UK govt has repeatedly said it will leave the EU on March 29th, 2019. - Source TradeTheNews.com

Mtl JP 19:56 GMT July 18, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 19 July 2018

john 19:42 - something wonki with
Spot EURUSD: 1.1680
Pivot Point: 1.1685


lets call it a gremlin as:
1) spot is approx. 1.1639 at timestamp
and
2) Pivot is at 1.1638
srce:
Forex Pivot Points by the pros at Global-View.com table

not bothered to check the rest

GVI Trader john 19:42 GMT July 18, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 19 July 2018

For AT Trading

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GVI EURUSD MACRO Bias:

NEUTRAL
Spot EURUSD: 1.1647
Pivot Point: 1.1638

This Week: 1.1602-1.1745
Wed: 1.1602-1.1665
Tue: 1.1649-1.1745
Mon: 1.1675-1.1725
Fri: 1.1613-1.1683

20-day avg: 1.1885
50-day avg: 1.1704
100-day avg: 1.1981
200-day avg: 1.1985


Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Sep 26: 98% (98%)

GVI Forex Blog 19:26 GMT July 18, 2018
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 18 July 2018
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 18 July 2018

Mtl JP 18:51 GMT July 18, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018

It would appear that I am not alone keeping an eye on Jerome's (and kudlow's) propaganda bullsh!t about "The Spread" (or the Yield Curve)

Earlier I saw Bernanke try to peddle similar dismissive argument :
Bernanke warns against reading wrong yield curve signal

12 hours ago - It would be a mistake to think that the unexpected flattening of the US yield curve signals a looming recession, Ben Bernanke.

Now via ZeroHedge a view by Alt-Market's Brandon Smith, originally published at Birch Gold Group:

Fed: "When The Yield Curve Creates Doubt, Throw It Out"

GVI 18:17 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

FEDERAL RESERVE BEIGE BOOK: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ROSE MODERATELY TO MODESTLY IN 10 OF 12 DISTRICTS;

- Dallas had strong growth, St Louis slight growth

- Prices and employment rose at modest to moderate pace - Extent of pass-through from input to consumer prices remained slight to moderate

- Manufacturers in all Districts expressed concern about tariffs and in many Districts reported higher prices and supply disruptions that they attributed to the new trade policies

- - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI 17:46 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Unnamed UK cabinet minister says Conservatives have come to their senses and will stick together in support of the Chequers deal - press

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 17:00 GMT July 18, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 19 July 2018
Reply   

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Thursday Trading Checklist 19 July 2018

Mtl JP 15:43 GMT July 18, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018

Yield Curve Watch

according to Fed's Powell on yield curve:

Question is what's the story with long rates

GVI Trader john 15:35 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Its a bit difficult to explain, but when I was an institutional trader I had to borrow funds for trading from our firm and they "charged" me for my trading funds and for use of the firm's capital. There was no "free" money for anyone and costs for the use of company funds and capital was closely accounted for. That is true everywhere for any well run firm. Bottom line there is no free lunch no matter how big you are.

Kl Fs 15:02 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

John, agree re. same rollover cost however for big fish the rollover cost is not effecting their capital as much as small fish. For example average small fish may have capital 10-20k, big fish may have millions so same rollover raising from 1 standard lot for example has different percentage in terms of their capital sizes.

GVI Trader john 15:01 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts






NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: +5.800 vs. -3.600 exp vs. -12.600 prev.
Distillates: -0.300 vs. +0.900 exp vs. +4.100 prev.
Gasoline: -3.200 vs. -0.400 exp vs. -0.700 prev.



Weekly Petroleum Status Report



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 14:52 GMT July 18, 2018
AT FX Trading Alert

eurdlr a boost ....
from 1.1635 to 1.1650 to 1.1644
getting filthy rich ?

GVI Trader Jay Meisler 14:38 GMT July 18, 2018
AT FX Trading Alert

Steady buying in EURGBP as seen on an AT EURGBP chart is giving EURUSD a boost while GBPUSD lags. Key AT levels are availble for those using our program.

Think Like Our Algo, Trade Like a Pro

GVI 14:09 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Former Foreign Min Johnson: PM May's Brexit plan does not take back control from the EU - May's plan makes it harder for the UK to pursue trade deals with other countries- There is no Parliamentary majority in support of a Customs Union with the EU- Have to try and save Brexit now because we will not get another chance

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Mtl JP 14:03 GMT July 18, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018

for trivia record:
at the start on the 2nd day of powell delivering the same thing he did yesty:
eurdlr at 1.1635
usdyen 112.85
dlrx 94.95

Mtl JP 13:54 GMT July 18, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018

possibly in ref to my earlier post about yield curve kudlow felt compelled to kvetch on cnbc that "no recession in sight" but he did not say how good his sight is or not, just that not "any time soon"

Mtl JP 13:19 GMT July 18, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018

Nive try john but I suggest off the mark. munchkin's influence in the market barely reaches powell's ankles.

It is powell and his merry gang with all sorts of position papers and plots that have market's ear. Particularly Bond market's ear. And there is a reason why particularly the 10-yr paper is considered the Benchmark.

There was a time u were hawkishly watching the 10-yr for 3%. Now that it is back below 3% how significant or not is it that it is under 3% do u think ?

GVI Trader john 13:12 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

I think housing has a major affordability problem. Builders have been overbuilding at the high end. If they can't sell them they won't build them.

GVI Trader john 13:09 GMT July 18, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018

Powell has NO role in Forex policy. That has always been the portfolio of the Treasury Secretary (Mnuchin).

Mtl JP 13:07 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

john 12:32 what do u think the "Big misses" reflect:
overly and perennially optimistic govt propaganda apparatchiks or a start of something sinister on the ground or _

Mtl JP 13:00 GMT July 18, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018



to be polite to Jerome : DLR looking tired
impolite version would say : bored with jerome

Mtl JP 12:48 GMT July 18, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018

I ll start:
Unlikely to above 1.1750
Likelier towards if not to 1.15

Mtl JP 12:45 GMT July 18, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018

I see powell's testimoany at 10am NYT been given AA grade as potential menace to one's wallet on essentially a rehash same blather he delivered yesty.

Who d like prognosticate dlr's range today?
tia

GVI Forex Blog 12:40 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Housing Starts Permits Miss in June 2018
Reply   
Housing Starts and Permits miss big in June 2018.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Housing Starts/Permits Miss in June 2018

GVI Trader john 12:32 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Big misses

GVI Trader john 12:31 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. House Starts & Permits (000) June 2018




NEWS ALERT
Starts: 1.170 vs. 1.320 exp. vs. 1.350 (r 1.337) prev.
Permits: 1.270 vs. 1.330 exp. vs. 1.300 prev.


New Residential Construction



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 12:28 GMT July 18, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018

At bottom of hour
building permits = potential to move prices around
do not think more than +/- 30pips

Mtl JP 12:25 GMT July 18, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018

Yield Curve Watch
10yr 2.851
2yr 2.611
curve slope: 0.24
-
July 13: 0.252
July 7th: 0.283

GVI Trader john 12:13 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

KL- interesting points. I might add that the "big fish" face the same rollover costs that retail traders have to deal with. Rollover costs come from interest rate differentials. That is why central bank decisions, and the outlook for future decisions are central to forex trading.

kl fs 11:20 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

reality is there is no way margin traders can survive going short usd for many moons like they think they could, simply because the huge rollover swaps are killing them even IF they got it right, ask those retails going short usdjpy for example

only way to get it working is if they dont use leverage, which is only possible for big fish and big fish simply do not take short usd position because they know the small ones are suffering from it

GVI 11:16 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Weekly PM May question time in House of Commons: - Chequers agreement and White paper on Brexit remain the basis for negotiations with EU
- Source TradeTheNews.com

london red 10:54 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

abel it was rhetorical, i think once it reaches parity and beyound, then there will be a will to do a deal from the eu side.

GVI Trader Jay Meisler 10:39 GMT July 18, 2018
AT FX Trading Alert
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jkt abel 10:26 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

red, maybe when eur/gbp reaches parity

london red 10:21 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

i always point out the frog in water analogy. where the frog thrown into a pot of hot water will jump out, but if put into cold water which is then heated, it will boil to death. We are 2 years post referendum and with less than 9 months to go to exit time, we have still got no further than a divorce deal (which was supposed to be the easy part), which is dependant on the future trade deal being written pre exit. Discarding everything and looking at it afresh, how likely do you think it is that a deal gets done?

london red 10:04 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

a positive end for mkts would be a minimal disruption and so a soft brexit, with the eu continuing to have some hold on the UK. however, leaving the CU and ending immigration is not compatible with the EU's four key freedoms. The softer the EU is with the UK the bigger problems it will have down the line with other potential deserters. Hence there will be no last minute softening by the EU, something which the mkt has always counted on in the past. So this time it really will be different.

jkt abel 09:47 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Thatcher stepped down after England reached WC semifinal
May will follow the same route...
it is cyclical...

GVI Trader Jay Meisler 09:46 GMT July 18, 2018
What is the Amazing Trader?

Wednesday Trading Checklist
GVI Trader Jay Meisler 09:18 GMT 07/18/2018 - My Profile

GBPUSD 1.3038: Black hole after data leaves little in the way of nearby resistance so looking at a one hour AT chart shows yesterday's spike low at 1.3068 as the initial level. Assume sellers lying in wait on any decent bounce unless 1.3068+ is recovered.

Think Like Our Algo, Trade Like a Pro

Mtl JP 09:45 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

red what would be an example of "talks ending positively"
tia

UK JY 09:42 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Risk in cable is a political headline and whether May can hold on as PM.

GVI Trader Jay Meisler 09:09 GMT July 18, 2018
What is the Amazing Trader?



Strategy after data for those trading the news: Look at a one minute AT chart along with other time frames you use.

GBPUSD: 1.3039: In this case, GBPUSD AT directional indicator pattern signaled potential for a low and note the bounce that followed from 1.3010.

Think Like Our Algo, Trade Like a Pro

GVI Trader john 09:07 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

EZ final June 2018 headline HICP (CPI) unrevised. Core HICP falls to 0.9% from flash 1.0%.


final Eurozone HICP Chart

jkt abel 09:04 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

this is the key IMHO, cant disagree

"but that would require the eu to compromise on its beliefs"

london red 09:02 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

the window to hike appears to close after the august meet given that crude is going to drag down inflation and the october eu meet id do or die for brexit talks for the eu. even on a surprise august hike (surprise since not fully priced in), you would expect cable to rally initially but end up down on the day since it will be a one and done hike. you need to believe eu talks will end positively to think otherwise, but that would require the eu to compromise on its beliefs - as we have seen its willing to cause its member states much harm in defending those beliefs.

GVI Trader john 08:58 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Odds for an August 2 BOE rate hike ease to 68% from 77% following surprisingly soft CPI. So market odds still favor a hike.

GVI Trader john 08:53 GMT July 18, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018


For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO Bias:

NEUTRAL
Spot EURUSD: 1.1617
Pivot Point: 1.1685

This Week: 1.1607-1.1745
Wed: 1.1607-1.1665
Tue: 1.1649-1.1745
Mon: 1.1675-1.1725
Fri: 1.1613-1.1683

20-day avg: 1.1662
50-day avg: 1.1708
100-day avg: 1.1987
200-day avg: 1.1986


Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Sep 26: 98% (96%)

10-yr Bonds
US: 2.860% +0.7bp
DE: 0.344% -0.6bp
GB: 1.253% -0.8bp

DAX: +86
Implied Open
DJ: +13
SP: -0.1




See the Amazing Trader Live!

jkt abel 08:49 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

looks like very painful game for some though as retails showing 74% staled long cable even before this plunge!

london red 08:48 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

thats the one

jkt abel 08:46 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

red, we have extension of previous line which is now a support in that 1.26xxx zone too, looks like feasible enough!

london red 08:40 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

barrier defence at 130. wkly close below 13060 tgts lvls of 126.

jkt abel 08:40 GMT July 18, 2018
sell euro, buy usd

go lemmings power! magical


sell euro, buy usd
jkt abel 03:54 GMT 07/18/2018
and 74% long cable, party!
Reply

sell euro, buy usd
jkt abel 03:52 GMT 07/18/2018
retail platforms showing 86% participants long gold, wow complete recipe for disaster, lemmings play
Reply

sell euro, buy usd
jkt abel 03:43 GMT 07/18/2018
sja, i dont mind seeing cable 12950-70 by friday close either!
Reply

GVI Forex Blog 08:40 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.K. CPI Misses Estimates
Reply   

U.K. CPI and RPIX chart

U.K. Headline June 2018 y/y CPI softer than expected +2.40% rise. RPIX +3.40%

BREAKING NEWS: U.K. CPI Misses Estimates

GVI Trader john 08:33 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

U.K. CPI misses.

GVI Trader john 08:32 GMT July 18, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

U.K. CPI June 2018

U.K. Charts





-- NEWS ALERT --

CPI m/m: 0.0% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.40% prev.
CPI y/y: +2.40% vs. +2.60% exp. vs. +2.40% prev.




TTN: Live News Special Offer

kl shawn 08:31 GMT July 18, 2018
sell euro, buy usd

there you go, good toilet flush day for cable

GVI Forex Blog 08:09 GMT July 18, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018
Reply   

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018

Mtl JP 08:06 GMT July 18, 2018
ECB DRAGHI PONZI MAFIA

see how wrong you are: exchange rate has nothing to do with future bleakness unless one is caught in a wrongfooted bet; neither is euro below parity
and it will not be
neither this week nor next
not even with "help" of repetitive posts of semantically satiated indignation from personally frustrated PAR whose odds of croaking from repetitive strain injury (RSI, also known as Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorder (WRMSD) rise with every same-old same-old additional post

SINGAPORE 07:42 GMT July 18, 2018
USD/JPY Forecast July 16-20 Is the only way up? Or is it overstretched?
Reply   


Dollar/Yen swirl in a week that saw the US Dollar regnant supreme and when the security status of the yen lost its meaning. What�s next? The evidence by Powell, US retail sales, and other events are set to rock the pair. For Singapore beginner trader, we are providing the best quality of forex trading alerts for free. Just sign up on our website.

USD/JPY Fundamental Movers

-Powell rest well, trade wars are restricted, inflation is rising

-Powell Again, Putin, and Retail Sales

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

114.75 capped the pair back in October and remains a high point. 113.75 capped the pair later in late 2017.

It is followed by 112.80 which capped the pair in mid-July..overstretched/​

kl fs 06:08 GMT July 18, 2018
ECB DRAGHI PONZI MAFIA

euro should be below parity already

kl shawn 06:06 GMT July 18, 2018
ECB DRAGHI PONZI MAFIA

PAR, that sounds like bleak future for euro

PAR 06:03 GMT July 18, 2018
ECB DRAGHI PONZI MAFIA
Reply   
Good morning from #Germany where we celebrating Tax Freedom Day, the day of the year from which taxpayers no longer work for govt. This year German taxpayers had to work 198 days for the state alone, more than ever. Taxes & social security contributions at record 54.3% of income.

#ECB balance sheet has hit fresh high at almost �4.6tn as Draghi keeps printing press rumbling. Total assets rose by another �6.6bn on QE. ECB balance sheet has risen to 41.2% of #Eurozone GDP while Fed's has shrank 21.5% of US GDP.

kl shawn 05:14 GMT July 18, 2018
sell euro, buy usd

UK data next, another quick flush down the toilet for cable day?

bali sja 04:24 GMT July 18, 2018
sell euro, buy usd

singapore td, better play this theme:

bali sja 07:32 GMT July 13, 2018
Sell euro, buy usd: Reply
usdcad asking for 1.3320-50

bali sja 07:23 GMT July 13, 2018
Sell euro, buy usd: Reply
114.50-115.20 next

bali sja 07:22 GMT July 13, 2018
Sell euro, buy usd: Reply
a lot of prisoners in usdjpy IMO
those betting heavily in front of 111.20 can kiss their money goodbye now

Bali Sja 17:25 GMT July 12, 2018
Sell euro buy usd: Reply
Euro is well below 11720. You know what to do....

Bali Sja 18:16 GMT July 11, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 11 July 2018: Reply
Nice usd move today actually and forum is so quiet, prisoners? :)

singapore td 04:21 GMT July 18, 2018
sell euro, buy usd

abel, what is the play today? sell euro with stop above 11685? target?

jkt abel 04:14 GMT July 18, 2018
sell euro, buy usd

btw, DIRECTIONAL ppfffffufufu ;)
AMAZING summer range at best

jkt abel 03:54 GMT July 18, 2018
sell euro, buy usd

and 74% long cable, party!

jkt abel 03:52 GMT July 18, 2018
sell euro, buy usd

retail platforms showing 86% participants long gold, wow complete recipe for disaster, lemmings play

jkt abel 03:43 GMT July 18, 2018
sell euro, buy usd

sja, i dont mind seeing cable 12950-70 by friday close either!

bali sja 02:56 GMT July 18, 2018
sell euro, buy usd
Reply   
the theme is well played and no reason not to do so
meanwhile as addition, gold broke weekly trendline support, very good for usd bulls, next target down to 1050ish? usd usd usd !!

GVI TRADER Jay Meisler 00:43 GMT July 18, 2018
What is the Amazing Trader?

AT is more than just support and resistance levels, even though they continue to be quite amazing (thus the name), They are based on our proprietary logic and designed to form patterns. It is these patterns that gave rise to the strategies we use (and share with subscribers) to trade using our program.

It is all based on logic and once you start thinking like our algo (as per our strategy), trade opportunities flow from it.

The Amazing Trader

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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