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Forex Forum Archive for 07/19/2018

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Dillon AL 22:17 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Consider this: robotic or automatic cars etc wont be mainstream for imho at least 15 years. GPS cannot distinguish between a floor level nor a lane and is ALWAYS several seconds behind reality.
Consider this: Tesla tried to institute robots for what was considered menial human repetitive tasks however found out 2 things 1. the required programming was too difficult 2. that the human was better at it in the first place so they reverted to using humans.
Consider this: word spell does not know the grammatical difference between there and their and a multitude of other similar.
Consider this: Google translate and similar despite being programmed with the dictionary - by no means a complete version of language it then
- now get this - uses English as on intermediary step language for translations between most language pairs. Now of course there is no way of knowing whether that would be UK US OZ etc versions of what is euphemistically referred to as English. Also the translators whether intentionally or unintentionally often provide sexist translations where, among other things, doctors are men and teachers are women.
Consider this: Google or Siri cannot spell - see previous reference - have difficulty understanding accents in every sense of the word and with their predictive text frequently come up with words 1. that are meaningless to the context and 2. complete and utter different words and on top of every thing think that they know better than I in that they change some of the words that I am typing.
Consider this: we already have people that blindly follow directions on their GPS to the point of going onto trails and up dead ends. IE these people know not how to make a decision for themselves believing everything that they see to be gospel. Well we know how that ends but it starts with.....Have you ever been behind someone in a queue and listened to ..the desk clerk or whomever explain something to these people in front of you and started to get frustrated that they were not actually listening properly and not absorbing the information and requiring everything to be explained several times but then these are the same people to whom one needs to say something like my name is Alex thats aye elle eee x but then for what is a very military nation (The US) very few actually know how to spell using the phonetic language
so it would be pointless saying Alpha Lima Echo Xray.
Consider this: Algos in the financial world make money by virtue of being market makers IE they are all about volume and flow. No volume and no flow they are as dead in the water as any human however ALL Algos have a human behind them whether that be purely a risk manager or just someone who when things gets slow flashes price change. Yep it is illegal but try and catch them especially where the regulatory officers have very little if any market background but being lawyers all think that they can wade through millions of lines of code.

I'll take my chances that as a human I can still outwit a machine for the foreseeable future because I can duck and weave and think on my feet and smell when something does not seem right and make an instantaneous decision but disaster strikes. We are a very very long way away from Kit or Hal.

Mtl JP 21:01 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

dc CB 16:09 why good luck ?
market makers / dealers lurk for dissertations by politicians / central bank cretins 24/7
think they do that manually ?
-
one has to get out of prehistoric cave and smoke signals and leap forward and adopt lurking robots variously programmed to watch for and react to price dynamics impulses . It is 2018 afterall.

GVI Trader john 19:47 GMT July 19, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 19 July 2018

For AT Trading

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GVI EURUSD MACRO Bias:

NEUTRAL-NEGATIVE
Spot EURUSD: 1.1643
Pivot Point: 1.1632

This Week: 1.1575-1.1745
Thu: 1.1575-1.1678
Wed: 1.1607-1.1665
Tue: 1.1649-1.1745
Mon: 1.1675-1.1725

20-day avg: 1.1666
50-day avg: 1.1698
100-day avg: 1.1975
200-day avg: 1.1984


Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Sep 26: 98% (98%)





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GVI Forex Blog 19:34 GMT July 19, 2018
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 19 July 2018
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

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Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 19 July 2018

GVI Forex Blog 19:14 GMT July 19, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 6 July 2018
Reply   

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Friday Trading Checklist For 6 July 2018

PAR 17:57 GMT July 19, 2018
TRUMP

Imho Trump respects nobody and nothing .

PAR 17:56 GMT July 19, 2018
TRUMP

Trump = Bullard . Why did he not name him FED president ?

GVI Trader 17:54 GMT July 19, 2018
TRUMP

13:52 (US) White House Sanders: President Trump respects teh independence of the Federal Reserve Related ()

- Source TradeTheNews.com

NY JM 17:42 GMT July 19, 2018
TRUMP

My guess is that when Trump talks about the dollar his main focus is on China but fx market reacted as a whole.

In any case, these news reactions, how rationale or not, seem to have become a daily occurrence.

PAR 17:33 GMT July 19, 2018
TRUMP
Reply   
Trump organisation and Trump family have a lot of debt and not a lot of equity ?

PAR 17:29 GMT July 19, 2018
Basic Economics
Reply   
Low taxes > Huge budget deficits > Higher interest rates

GVI Trader Jay Meisler 17:24 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

13:03 (US) Pres Trump: Not happy about interest rates going up at the Fed; Strong dollar puts the US at a disadvantage - CNBC taped interview excerpts
- Fed rate hikes may be poorly timed and will put the US at a disadvantage while other central banks maintain loose monetary policy- "I am not happy about it. But at the same time I'm letting them do what they feel is best."
- Fed Chair Powell is a good man
- Chinese currency is dropping like a rock

- Source TradeTheNews.com

HK Kevin 17:19 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Should be "economic recession"

PAR 17:19 GMT July 19, 2018
TRUMP
Reply   
Trump , the new guy in charge of the FED .

Surrealistic .

HK Kevin 17:17 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

What does President Trump actually want? Lower interest rate, lower trade deflict, and now weak dollar. That will translate to lower economic growth

GVI Trader Jay Meisler 17:10 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

USD spikes down on Trump comments on interest rates and the dollar

Amazing Trader always gives you levels to trade in the heat of battle.

The Amazing Trader

Bali Sja 16:37 GMT July 19, 2018
Gold MAY drop to 1087$/Oz (CHART)

Agree [email protected], technicals are saying usd bulls are having big party this year. I'd like euro 1.08xx first. Gold 1180>1050>980 eventually.

dc CB 16:09 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Good Luck trading the TRADE TALKS Headlines.

BMW CONSIDERS SHIFTING U.S. PRODUCTION TO CHINA ON TRADE RISKS

20 mins later

BMW DENIES SAYING SHIFT OF U.S. PRODUCTION TO CHINA CONSIDERED


GVI Trader john 14:30 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

EIA U.S. Natural Gas

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
(BCF) +46 vs: +56 expected

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 14:21 GMT July 19, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 19 July 2018

GBP 1.30
looks like GBP sceptics have given up now that puppy is back N of 1.2983 after a feeble attempt lower (LOD 1.2958)

Mtl JP 14:13 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

ambassador is confident. noted.
-
that is after reuters report from July 18:
"“We have had very good sessions with Mexico and with the new president of Mexico, who won overwhelmingly, and we’re doing very well on our trade agreement,” Trump said to reporters ahead of a meeting of his cabinet at the White House.

“So we’ll see what happens. We may do a deal separately with Mexico and we’ll negotiate with Canada at a later time. But we’re having very good discussions with Mexico.”

may
may not
loves me
loves me not

-----------
Bottom Line
usdcad slight bull bias
with current s/t res around 1.3250/60 zone

GVI 14:02 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Canada Ambassador: remain confident will end up with a trilateral agreement on NAFTA - Trumps call for bilateral talks not a surrise - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader john 14:01 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Leading Indicators June 2018

U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
0.50% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. -0.20% (r) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

PAR 13:56 GMT July 19, 2018
CHINA
Reply   
US companies make $ billions transferring technology to China and Trump blames the Chinese .

Skin in the game .

GVI Forex Blog 13:54 GMT July 19, 2018
Doubts Starting to Surface About An August 2 Bank Of England Rate Hike
Reply   


June U.K. Inflation Data Miss Consensus Estimates Markets were surprised on Wednesday after the June CPI data fell short of street estimates. The month on month CPI was uchanged at 0.0% vs. estimates for a gain of 0.20% and the yr/yr reading was 2.40% vs. 2.60% estimated. Core CPI was 1.90% vs 2.10%. Headline CPI remained above its target, but well below the six year high of 3.10% set in November. Following the release, street probabilities for an August 2 rate hike fell to 74% vs. 83%. Some also are taking note of the recent declines in crude oil prices will start to flow into CPI data in coming months...MORE.

Doubts Starting to Surface About An August 2 Bank Of England Rate Hike

GVI Trader john 13:44 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Reports of earthquake in Mexico City no details.

Mtl JP 13:43 GMT July 19, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 19 July 2018

Yield Curve Watch

Caroline Baum
Opinion: The bond market goes its own way
The economy is strong, inflation is rising and the Fed is tightening,

so why aren’t 10-year yields higher?

HK [email protected] 13:02 GMT July 19, 2018
Gold MAY drop to 1087$/Oz (CHART)

*
By about same proportion Euro MAY drop to about 1.04, using the H&S formation on the weekly.

GVI Forex Blog 13:01 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Low
Reply   
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Down.

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Chart
<Click on chart for over seventeen-year history

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Low

GVI Trader john 12:58 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

US Weekly Jobless Claims



ALERT

207K vs. 220K exp vs. 214K (r. 215K) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


GVI Trader john 12:34 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Philly Fed Index July 2018



NEWS ALERT

+25.7 vs. +20.0 exp. vs. +19.9 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 12:12 GMT July 19, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 16 July 2018

was there some kind of contest ?

Bali Sja 11:53 GMT July 19, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 16 July 2018

This is the best call this week. Very timely. Credits given where it is due. Well done kl fs, as they said nothing beats a trader's experience and instinct, not even an algo!
Cheers!

kl fs 10:18 GMT July 16, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 16 July 2018: Reply
sorry to interrupt JY, but you can try here with stop well above 11720

Mtl JP 11:44 GMT July 19, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 19 July 2018

Yield Curve Watch
-
jerome pooh-pooed the flat/tening yield curve in his recent testimony. but not everyone is buying his salad:

The bond market is ‘coiling’ for a violent yield surge, says BMO strategist

Ian Lyngen, an interest-rate analyst for BMO Capital Markets, says the 10-year Treasury yield has traded in a range of eight basis points, or less than 0.1 percentage points, between 2.80% and 2.90% in the last 14 trading sessions since June 28.

“Our sense is that something dramatic is nearing on the horizon. This bias is in part due to the fact Treasuries so rarely trade in such a tight range for any extended period of time,”

GVI 11:18 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

EU reportedly looking at retaliating with 20% auto tariff if US implements trade barriers - press -

Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader Jay Meisler 11:08 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

As I posted for our AT subscribers,

These are not spec flows driving the dollar higher but my guess is some allocation into dollars that started in the Far East.

Look at your AT charts for clues when these flows are going through the market.

The Amazing Trader

GVI Trader john 10:59 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Note China yuan weaker as well AUD weaker despite strong employment data today. AUD is the free market proxy for China. Commodity currencies are also on the back foot.

jkt abel 10:28 GMT July 19, 2018
sell euro, buy usd
Reply   
sold euro 11612, stop 11655, target open until friday NY

GVI Trader john 10:02 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

EARLIER: Australia JUNE 2018 Employment data beat forecasts. Headline +50.9K with Full-time Employment up 41.2K . Unemployment rate unch at 5.40%.
Australia Employment data chart

GVI Trader john 09:49 GMT July 19, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 19 July 2018


For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO Bias:

NEUTRAL-NEGATIVE
Spot EURUSD: 1.1596
Pivot Point: 1.1638

This Week: 1.1596-1.1745
Thu: 1.1596-1.1657
Wed: 1.1607-1.1665
Tue: 1.1649-1.1745
Mon: 1.1675-1.1725

20-day avg: 1.1665
50-day avg: 1.1704
100-day avg: 1.1981
200-day avg: 1.1985


Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Sep 26: 98% (96%)

10-yr Bonds
US: 2.889% +2.3bp
DE: 0.352% +0.9bp
GB: 1.232% +0.5bp

DAX: -43
Implied Open
DJ: -49
SP: -5.5




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Mtl JP 09:13 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

so now we have 1.2983 low to trade against
IF one believes the rockstar of banking

london red 09:06 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

it will be a close call but the more imp thing to take from it all it that its likely to be a one and done it at all, hence cable may pop but will likely finish lower on day even if they try to guide higher, because to be believeable, you will need either data or positive brexit news. recent drops in crude will not help the first, while the key date for brexit is october as of now. by the time we get there, they will then push it on, but you would also expect some negative effects into sterling at that time as well.

GVI Trader john 09:02 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

red thanks for your always insightful comments. So you suggest the BOE might just plow through and hike anyway?

GVI Forex Blog 08:57 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Retail Sales Miss in June 2018
Reply   
U.K. Retail Sales chart June 2018 U.K. Retail Sales Data miss m/m street estimates. GBP dips then recovers.

BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Retail Sales Miss in June 2018

GVI Trader john 08:46 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Perth- good question any ideas from the forum? Data over the past two days have got to raise doubts for the doves or those on the fence at the BOE.

london red 08:43 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

other than headline miss, which was poss affected by unusually strong may (royal wedding), sales not too bad. however june should have had a good boost from world cup so im not buying that argument. however combined april may june sales were quite strong historically, certainly an improvement on Q1. boe was looking for a rebound from soft q1, in those terms i dont think it will sway them from a hike given they dont have much of a window. but in any case, cable is likely to drop whether they hike or not, unless data improves significantly and or we get a positive development on brexit.

Perth WTR 08:37 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

cable 1.30 busted rather easily,wonder if August hike will be cancelled

GVI Trader john 08:36 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Big miss on retail sales. Any impact on BOE after the soft CPIs yesterday? Has to raise more doubts.

GVI Trader john 08:34 GMT July 19, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

U.K. Retail Sales June 2018




-- NEWS ALERT --

mm: -0.50% v +0.20% exp. vs. +1.30% (r +1.4%) prev.
x-fuel & autos
mm: -0.60% v +0.20% exp. vs. +1.30% (r +1.40%) prev.

RELEASE: UK Retail Sales


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 08:23 GMT July 19, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 19 July 2018
Reply   

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Thursday Trading Checklist 19 July 2018

Belgrade Knez 08:11 GMT July 19, 2018
cable

london red

"50% of 115/144 is 12935."

lowest on cable I have on my chart is 1.1931 at October 2016.

please point out when do you see the low of 1.15 as stated in your post?

london red 08:01 GMT July 19, 2018
cable

multi yard expiry today at 1.30 but also a barrier there which they will no doubt try to defend. plenty of stops below. 50% of 115/144 is 12935. the 11439 was the pre adjusted fat finger low which was adjusted to 11929.

Perth WTR 07:57 GMT July 19, 2018
CHINA

both PAR

PAR 07:45 GMT July 19, 2018
CHINA
Reply   
US companies making mega profits in China .

Ted Bauman

"I also discuss the thorny issue of China’s hijacking of U.S. intellectual property, which is one area where sanctions are well and truly deserved. But one thing cannot be disputed: U.S. companies that have chosen to cooperate in this “theft” did so in pursuit of profit in the Chinese market. Who should the government be punishing — China or these U.S. companies?

PAR 07:37 GMT July 19, 2018
My friend Vladimir

$ 80 billion is just a drop in the ocean of outstanding US debt .

Perth WTR 07:26 GMT July 19, 2018
cable

tom, we dont need UK data after all ;P enjoy

PAR 07:02 GMT July 19, 2018
My friend Vladimir

No idea .Trumps other friend Saudi Arabia ?

manila tom 06:48 GMT July 19, 2018
My friend Vladimir

PAR, who was the buyer though?

PAR 06:46 GMT July 19, 2018
My friend Vladimir

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

PAR 06:41 GMT July 19, 2018
My friend Vladimir
Reply   
De-Dollarization #Russia style: Putin has liquidated almost all of Russia's US Treasury holdings. In just 2mths, Kremlin sold a whopping $81bn in US debt.

manila tom 06:22 GMT July 19, 2018
cable

good start WTR, hopefully UK data later will bring the needed action
usd is still king

Perth WTR 03:55 GMT July 19, 2018
cable
Reply   
today cable looks struggling ahead of 13090, UK data later may give same price action as yesterday. 1.30 defense will be tested heavily the rest of this week

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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