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Forex Forum Archive for 07/31/2018

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Livingston nh 23:46 GMT July 31, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Iran sanctions kick in next week - do you think China will care? China SEZ anybody that complies w/ Iran sanctions can't do biz w/ China??

I see your FIVE and I raise you TEN-- that's a Trade WAR

GVI Trader 23:15 GMT July 31, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Stock futures down on this?

(CN) US considering 25% tariff on $200B worth of goods from China (initial plan was 10% on the $200B in goods); trying to encourage China to return to talks - US financial press

- Source TradeTheNews.com

dc CB 20:58 GMT July 31, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 1 August 2018

ES- emini SnP futures now up 22.50 on APPL earnings, now up 6 bucks.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
API
Crude +5.59mm (-3mm exp)
Cushing -930k (-500k exp)
Gasoline -791k
Distillates +2.89mm

Mtl JP 20:39 GMT July 31, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 1 August 2018

NOT tradethenews .... lets see how it forward-looking piece pans out


Poland sees higher risk of no-deal Brexit

Mtl JP 20:11 GMT July 31, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 1 August 2018

well well well
S&P 500 Index 4:03 PM 2,816.26 +13.66 +0.49%
stops at 3 consecutive April-July posi-close run
all that history about stocks and interest into yr end correlation suggests

new chapter a-coming

GVI Trader john 20:07 GMT July 31, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 1 August 2018

For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:

NEUTRAL
Spot EURUSD: 1.1698
Pivot Point: 1.1711

This Week: 1.1648-1.1745
Tue: 1.1689-1.1745
Mon: 1.1648-1.1719
Fri: 1.1621-1.1664
Thu: 1.1640-1.1744

20-day avg: 1.1689
50-day avg: 1.1677
100-day avg: 1.1925
200-day avg: 1.1981


Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Sep 26: 100% (100%)

GVI Forex Blog 19:06 GMT July 31, 2018
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 31 July 2018
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 31 July 2018

Mtl JP 18:40 GMT July 31, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

GVI Trader john 18:19 whose forecasts do you have faith in ?

Mtl JP 18:34 GMT July 31, 2018
TRUMP just can't stop about his SHUTDOWN

gov't shutdown only points out small parts of how or where it is not necessary. It does not stop the sun from rising, grass from being green or sto water from flowing

GVI Trader john 18:19 GMT July 31, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

we don't have much faith in the Atlanta Fed GDP forecasts

GVI 17:47 GMT July 31, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Atlanta Fed forecasts initial Q3 GDP growth at 4.7% The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.7 percent. The advance estimate of second-quarter real GDP growth released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 27 was 4.1 percent, 0.3 percentage points above the final GDPNow model nowcast released on the previous day.


- Source TradeTheNews.com

PAR 17:45 GMT July 31, 2018
TRUMP just can't stop about his SHUTDOWN
Reply   
...Border Security is National Security, and National Security is the long-term viability of our Country. A Government Shutdown is a very small price to pay for a safe and Prosperous America!

GVI Forex Blog 17:09 GMT July 31, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 1 August 2018
Reply   

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Wednesday Trading Checklist 1 August 2018

Mtl JP 17:04 GMT July 31, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 31 July 2018

USDCAD 1.300
short still alive, still needs to break S of 1.30 to have a crack at 100ma around 1.2950

Mtl JP 16:53 GMT July 31, 2018
More on QTs - the Anti-POMOs

tks but that is a LOT of words from nomura

the low yield has been 1.321
now it is at almost 3%
typically directionally stock market follows the 10-yr YIELD

2.956 % -0.019

US 10-YR (US10Y:U.S.)

PAR 16:29 GMT July 31, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 31 July 2018

Mnuchin doing a great job to achieve that;

dc CB 16:18 GMT July 31, 2018
More on QTs - the Anti-POMOs
Reply   
Back in the heyday of the Fed's QE, it had become a trader mantra: buy stocks on POMO days, or when the Fed was actively purchasing bonds in the open market, and generate risk-free, outsized returns. It got to the point where even Goldman advised its clients to frontrun the Fed, as we documented back in October 2010, when Goldman's trading desk sent out this note: .............

On the interplay between the FED and STOCKS: Since Sept 1 – when QE was becoming a mainstream focus – if you only owned S&P on days when the Fed conducted Open Market Operations (in US Treasuries), your cumulative return is over 11%. in addition, 6 of the 7 times when S&P rallied 1% or more, OMO was conducted that day. this compares to a YTD return of 5.8%. the point: you would have outperformed the market 2x by being long on just the 16 days when – this is the important part – you knew in advance that OMO was to be conducted.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
As for QT - read the link (ZeroHedge)



Nomura Has A Very Bad Feeling

Mtl JP 16:15 GMT July 31, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 31 July 2018

S&P 2822
to close a 4th consecutive positive month puppy would need to close above 2849.25

PAR 16:11 GMT July 31, 2018
FED MEETING
Reply   
Dovish ECB > Dovish BOJ > Dovish FED

Mtl JP 15:27 GMT July 31, 2018
BOJ

GBP 1.3095
jkt abel 09:53 Kudos on that 1.3155/70-ish short gbpusd a difficult trade ahead of an expected boe rate hike thursday

excellent snatch

Mtl JP 14:35 GMT July 31, 2018
USDTRY

PAR pray tell the spread u r getting on that dog
mine is between 7-10

PAR 14:20 GMT July 31, 2018
USDTRY
Reply   
Short ar 4.9200. . Stop 4.9500.

GVI Forex Blog 14:08 GMT July 31, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Conference Board Survey Beats Estimates For July 2018
Reply   
Conference Board data for July 2018 beat expectations.

Conference Board Survey Chart

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Conference Board Survey Beats Estimates For July 2018

GVI Trader john 14:01 GMT July 31, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Conference Board Survey July 2018




NEWS ALERT
127.4 vs. 126.0 exp. vs. 126.4 (r ) prev.

RELEASE: Consumer Confidence Data



TTN: Live News Special Offer
src="/images/TTN.gif" border="1">


Mtl JP 13:58 GMT July 31, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

it has potential to react-move prices +/- 30-ish pips

GVI Trader john 13:54 GMT July 31, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Consumer Confidence expected at 126.0 not 128.0

GVI Trader john 13:49 GMT July 31, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Chicago PMI July 2018



NEWS ALERT
65.5 vs. 61.8 exp. vs. 64.1 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 13:35 GMT July 31, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 31 July 2018

U.S., China Said to Seek Restart of Talks to Defuse Trade War ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/.../u-s-china-said-to-seek-restart-of-talks-to-defuse-trade-...
8 mins ago - tktktktkt, Bloomberg News reports.Developing… ... U.S., China Said to Seek Restart of Talks to Defuse Trade War. Bloomberg News. July 31 ...

Mtl JP 13:08 GMT July 31, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 31 July 2018

EURO support:
10 day 1.1686
20 day 1.1687
50 day 1.1678

GVI Trader john 13:00 GMT July 31, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Case Shiller-20 June 2018

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
6.50% vs. 6.40% exp. vs. +6.60% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 12:45 GMT July 31, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Core PCE Deflator Below its Fed Target In June 2018
Reply   
U.S. June 2018 Core PCE Deflator just below at its L-T target level. Fed Targets the core PCE Deflator at 2.00%.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Core PCE Deflator Below its Fed Target In June 2018

Mtl JP 12:38 GMT July 31, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 31 July 2018

US 10-YR at 8:24:42 AM EDT
2.96 % -0.015
USDX 94 (i.e. down and on backfoot)

Mtl JP 12:34 GMT July 31, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 31 July 2018

USDCAD 1.30
repeat of earlier post: usdcad trgts 100 day
(1.2945)

PAR 12:34 GMT July 31, 2018
SHORT VIX Short USDTRY
Reply   
Took profit .

GVI Trader john 12:33 GMT July 31, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Personal Income/PCE Deflator July, 2018



ALERT
Personal Income +0.40% vs. +0.40% exp v +0.40% prev.
Core PCE Defl +1.90% vs. +2.00% exp. vs. +2.00% prev. (r. +1.90%


RELEASE: Personal Income



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trader Jay Meisler 12:27 GMT July 31, 2018
Amazing Trader Update

LA, ask that question on our private GVI (AT) forum, which you have access to.

London LA 12:23 GMT July 31, 2018
Amazing Trader Update

@ Jay. I'm watching the 1H chart with AT.

Q why is the level 1.1727 important?

GVI Trader Jay Meisler 12:00 GMT July 31, 2018
Amazing Trader Update
Reply   
AT subscribers, look at your 1 hour chart to see how 1.1743-44 resistance held.

Potential for a directional indicator top if 1.1740 holds but requires a 1,.1727 break to confirm.

Key level is at 1.1750.

The Amazing Trader

Mtl JP 11:56 GMT July 31, 2018
BOJ

MAC 10:23 ----- yesty pound lingered around 1.31, now with 46 / 58 pundits have discounted carney's hike by pricing it in by driving the pup to 1.3155-ish . carney is pretty sure to play the brexit scardy card in his yikyak.

why is the pound difficult to trade?
tia

PAR 11:33 GMT July 31, 2018
EURUSD

The Treasury also predicted the U.S. government’s borrowing needs in the second half of this year will jump to the most since the financial crisis, with net borrowing of $769B (and $1.33T for the year).

Mtl JP 11:21 GMT July 31, 2018
EURUSD

Kudos !

PAR 11:00 GMT July 31, 2018
EURUSD
Reply   
Took profit at 1.1730 on fridays long from 1.1630 .

We'll see .

NYC MAC 10:23 GMT July 31, 2018
BOJ

short gbpusd is a difficult trade ahead of an expected boe rate hike thursday

GVI Trader john 10:13 GMT July 31, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 31 July 2018

For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:

NEUTRAL
Spot EURUSD: 1.1726
Pivot Point: 1.1692

This Week: 1.1648-1.1731
Tue: 1.1702-1.1731
Mon: 1.1648-1.1719
Fri: 1.1621-1.1664
Thu: 1.1640-1.1744
Wed: 1.1664-1.1739

20-day avg: 1.1687
50-day avg: 1.1678
100-day avg: 1.1931
200-day avg: 1.1981


Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Sep 26: 100% (98%)

10-yr Bonds
US: 2.954% -1.9bp
DE: 0.433% -1.6bp
GB: 1.338% -1.0bp
JP: 0.062% -4.2bp

DAX: -2
Implied Open
DJ: +12
SP: +2.8



PAR 10:09 GMT July 31, 2018
USDTRY
Reply   
Short USDTRY 4.9000 . Stop 4.9250 .

jkt abel 09:53 GMT July 31, 2018
BOJ

anybody short cable?

GVI Forex Blog 09:48 GMT July 31, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: EZ Advance 2Q18 GDP Misses Estimates
Reply   
Eurozone advance 2Q18 GDP y/y 2.10% yr/yr. Misses estimates.

Eurozone GDP Chart

BREAKING NEWS: EZ Advance 2Q18 GDP Misses Estimates

jkt abel 09:41 GMT July 31, 2018
BOJ

and i thought the algo took it as 9.01% ;)

GVI Forex Blog 09:36 GMT July 31, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: EZ Flash HICP Higher in July 2018
Reply   
EZ flash July 2018 HICP (CPI) beat estimates. Final data usually sees minor changes.

BREAKING NEWS: EZ Flash HICP Higher in July 2018

PAR 09:19 GMT July 31, 2018
VIX
Reply   
Short aug VIX 14.70 . Stop 15.50

GVI Trader john 09:05 GMT July 31, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Eurozone GDP 2Q18




Data News ALERT
qq: +0.30% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.40% (r) prev.
yy: +2.10% vs. +2.20% exp. vs. +2.50% (r) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer
target="_blank">Eurozone GDP Data

GVI Trader john 09:03 GMT July 31, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Eurozone flash HICP (CPI) July 2018





ALERT
Headline
yy: +2.10% vs. +2.00% exp. vs. +1.90% prev.
CORE
yy: +1.10% vs. +1.00% exp. vs. +0.90% prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 08:08 GMT July 31, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: German Unemployment Data Slightly Worse Than Forecast For July 2018
Reply   
German July 2018 Jobless data slightly weaker than expected. (lower is better). Unemployment rate steady.

BREAKING NEWS: German Unemployment Data Slightly Worse Than Forecast For July 2018

GVI Forex Blog 07:58 GMT July 31, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 31 July 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Tuesday Trading Checklist 31 July 2018

GVI Trader john 07:57 GMT July 31, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

German Unemployment July 2018




NEWS ALERT
Rate: -5.20% vs. 5.20% exp. vs. 5.20% prev.
Change: -6K vs. -10K exp. vs. -15K (r -14K) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

PAR 06:59 GMT July 31, 2018
NORTH KOREA
Reply   
North Korea 'working on new missiles', US officials say

North Korea appears to be building new ballistic missiles despite recent warming ties with the Trump administration, media reports say.

Unnamed US officials told the Washington Post that spy satellites had spotted continuing activity at a site that has produced ballistic missiles.

Reuters news agency quotes an official as saying it is unclear how far the work has gone.

President Donald Trump met North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in June.

PAR 06:43 GMT July 31, 2018
BOJ

Bank of #Japan‘s balance sheet on course to hit 100% of GDP (vs 21% in the US and 42% in Eurozone) as Japan‘s Central Bankers keep asset purchase program going.

PAR 06:14 GMT July 31, 2018
BOJ

BOJ de facto is a communist Central Plan Bureau manipulating the Yen and the prices of all Japanese financial assets .

Japanese state is bankrupt .

PAR 06:08 GMT July 31, 2018
BOJ

10y US Treasury yields drop following BoJ decision to keep Yield Curve Control in place 'so that 10-year JGB yields will remain at around zero percent' although they will allow more volatility. They note that the yield may move upward and downward.

PAR 06:05 GMT July 31, 2018
BOJ
Reply   
BOJ perpetuum bond buying . BOJ owns almost all Japanese bonds .

Dovish BOJ saves world stock markets , makes FED hike less likely .

Powell to listen to Trump and stop raising rates .

dc CB 05:15 GMT July 31, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 30 July 2018

US Treasuries, JGBs Rally As Bank Of Japan Shifts To "More Flexible" Bond-Buying Plan

***************just in Time for the July QT .....and.....wait for it.......The FMOC----RATE HIKE.... what's 0.25% when all You(Japan) pays for 10Y is........WAIT FOR IT.....NOTHING>>>NADA>>>>ZIP>>>>ZERO>>>>>as in YOU ARE LUCKY WE AGREE TO GIVE YOU THE PRINCIPAL BACK...

HOSER is not just Canadian "slur" it is Universal.

"ring around the rosey......."

dc CB 04:27 GMT July 31, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 30 July 2018

BOJ MAINTAINS 10-YEAR JGB YIELD TARGET AT ABOUT 0.000%

ring around the rosey
pocket full of poseys
ashes ashes
we all fall DOWN

Tag You're IT....
Zero Rates ZERO Rates ZERO RATES.

All Fall Down

dc CB 04:15 GMT July 31, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 30 July 2018

Mtl JP 23:11 GMT July 30, 2018
so the Q: which will lead which: stox jerome or jerome stocks.

hahahahahahahahhahahhahahaha

BOJ MAINTAINS 10-YEAR JGB YIELD TARGET AT ABOUT 0.000%



dc CB 03:37 GMT July 31, 2018
NUZ from the Great White North
Reply   
Loonie Tumbles After Report Canada Excluded From NAFTA Talks

OverComb v Overbite

dc CB 02:34 GMT July 31, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 30 July 2018

Mtl JP 22:37 GMT 07/30/2018
dc CB 22:01 (cough cough)

I demure to the GV Board Imprimatur LOL
GD luck trading.

dc CB 02:25 GMT July 31, 2018
Not The Onion...then again Not the Bezos Post
Reply   
If you think they are trying to kill you...aka Thin The Heard...you are Not a Paranoid Loonie. damn those pesky People, if only there was a PeopleCide at Lowes or Home Depot
________________________________________________
Meanwhile, water supplies in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New York and elsewhere have tested positive for elevated PFAS levels.

Michigan Declares State Of Emergency After Cancer-Linked Toxin Found In Drinking Water

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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