Livingston nh 23:57 GMT August 1, 2018
MPC and EU
John - my earlier GBP 12:51 comment// A No Deal Brexit might require the MPC to take a hike back in Q4 so why not wait -- data hasn't changed much since MAY/JUNE
More speculative is that by autumn UK could be slipping into "stagflation" symptoms if Brexit drags on // not a condition I have ever believed, like a YETI, BUT the buzzword might appear
If no hike it would be close (5 to 4), Haldane would have to change his June vote - will Broadbent join a Carney hike knowing that there's a good chance MPC has to do a reversal?
Will the GBP fade a hike because there is only one bullet in the gun? most likely
Mtl JP 23:38 GMT August 1, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 1 August 2018
USDCAD 1.299
puppy ever so slightly sneaking lower teasing 1.30
in the s/t 100dma now slightly lower at 1.2944 continues to be both Sup (for now) and a s/t trgt.
If n when 1.2920 gets taken out will be time to re-assess.
On the top side back above 50day would negate all the above.
Untill then
I am short and biased to Sell Rallies
Mtl JP 23:22 GMT August 1, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 1 August 2018
re 18:07 FOMC
I am left w/impression there will not be any need to pull an "LBJ" on Powell: his talk of prudence and judicious management is not so much in reference to the economy as to his own health / sense of self preservation.
dc CB 20:38 GMT August 1, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 1 August 2018
TSLA
If there ever what a Poster Stock for how weird the MarKIt is these days.
Tesla Soars Despite Record Quarterly Loss, $8 Million Daily Cash Burn
GVI Trader john 20:22 GMT August 1, 2018
MPC and EU
I was under the impression that a BOE rate hike was a "done deal"?
dc CB 19:17 GMT August 1, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 1 August 2018
This one's for you JP
TSLA rpts after the close--Yest it was AAPL
Goldman Sachs: "No - it’s not your imagination - earnings day moves are getting bigger."
Livingston nh 18:53 GMT August 1, 2018
MPC and EU
Reply
If Carney balks on a hike BECAUSE of Brexit it may be a sharp message to the EU - the EUR won't take that too well
GVI Trader john 18:16 GMT August 1, 2018
BREAKING NEWS
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
Share
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Household spending and business fixed investment have grown strongly. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-3/4 to 2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; John C. Williams, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.
Implementation Note issued August 1, 2018
dc CB 18:14 GMT August 1, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 1 August 2018
With the afore mentioned YUGE Treas auction next week...They def had their eye on this morning +3% on the 10.
Trump wud have pulled an "LBJ" on Powell.
Livingston nh 17:44 GMT August 1, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 1 August 2018
Hawkish is a hike today -- out to 10 the real yield is still negative (as an aside the Estrella/Mishkin inversion paper dealt w/ Fed Funds/10 not 2 yr) // tea leaf readers will find something for everybody
Livingston nh 17:30 GMT August 1, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 1 August 2018
jp - Fed whiplash might do it - but only Talk not Action // All this sanctions talk invites somebody to "just say no"
August is the silly season
GVI Forex Blog 17:11 GMT August 1, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist 2 August 2018
Reply
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Mon 6 Aug 2018
AA CA- Holiday
Tue 7 Aug 2018
AA Reserve Bank Of Australia
Wed 8 Aug 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Decision
Thu 9 Aug 2018
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 23:50 JP- GDP
Fri 10 Aug 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- CPI
A 12:30 CA- Employment
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Thursday Trading Checklist 2 August 2018
Fukuoka joyya 16:47 GMT August 1, 2018
TURKEY
eu and nato strong member turkey is simple country big energy supplier biggest in europe....
PAR 16:41 GMT August 1, 2018
TURKEY
Italian and Spanish banks have big exposure to Turkey .
Mtl JP 16:38 GMT August 1, 2018
TURKEY
It is similar to china asserting something it calls its "legitimate right"s as it huff n puffs to President Trump's request to stop spying, stealing and copying
President Trump is simply trying to correct disrespectful and otherwise bad behavior
Fukuoka joyya 16:22 GMT August 1, 2018
TURKEY
trump want deal with iran....what happen with north korea....
Fukuoka joyya 16:20 GMT August 1, 2018
TURKEY
usd collapse more badly soon no worry soon...... no more reserve currency usd$......
dc CB 16:18 GMT August 1, 2018
TURKEY
that's what happens with a NYC RealEstate Bidness Guy as Commander and Chief. buckle up folks ( yeh Trump never called US peoples "folks"
Obama wud have sent out more Drones with Hellfire missles or Drawn some RedLines or sent several C10s full of Euros. LOL
PAR 16:17 GMT August 1, 2018
TURKEY
Taught Trump as usual was barking rather than biting .
Fukuoka joyya 16:17 GMT August 1, 2018
TURKEY
Sell OTHER
Entry: 4.985 Target: Stop:
let see f trump....happy trade
Mtl JP 16:13 GMT August 1, 2018
TURKEY
PAR what President Trump is doing is behavioral conditioning, akin to Pavlov
I was wondering what made u go short usdtry at 4.92
PAR 16:05 GMT August 1, 2018
TURKEY
Turkish Lira crashes to record low as Trump prepares sanctions.
Trump killing Iranian , Pakistani and Turkish currencies .
Economic war has started ?
dc CB 15:58 GMT August 1, 2018
More on QTs - the Anti-POMOs
APPL tho UP 10bucks (which translates into a bunch of Dow,SnP and Nas Index Points, can't hold up the MarkIT by itself.
That YUGE Treas offering next week needs some Fear to keep the 10er from going off at 3%+++
PAR 15:54 GMT August 1, 2018
TURKEY
Reply
U.S. SAID TO PREPARE LIST OF TURKEY ECONOMIC SANCTIONS TARGETS
PAR 15:52 GMT August 1, 2018
TRUMP
Reply
Trump on twitter seems to have a difficult day .
Livingston nh 13:50 GMT August 1, 2018
BREAKING NEWS
PMI for the FOMC - " Average prices charged for goods consequently rose at the steepest rate for seven years, which is likely to feed through to higher consumer prices in coming months."
Livingston nh 13:27 GMT August 1, 2018
SHARES BUY BACKS
Nobody remembers the Doomsayers of 2000 when Budget projections were for a multi-trillion surplus -- ha ha !!
Mtl JP 13:13 GMT August 1, 2018
SHARES BUY BACKS
the "children" ... will
1) be deciding what sort of treatment u get in the old age home
2) divi-ing up your estate (their inheritance)
Chicago AGA 12:53 GMT August 1, 2018
SHARES BUY BACKS
... and financed by the US taxpayers whose children will be saddled with the deficits. Short term gain and long term pain?
Livingston nh 12:51 GMT August 1, 2018
GBP
Carney is one meeting from "Merv the Swerve" status - he pulled the rug on Expectations last time // His concern two years ago was the unknown effect of Brexit -- now that the issue has been resolved a rate hike is appropriate -- hmm, maybe not
The politics of the MPC and the No Deal warning by Carney a few weeks ago argues for a coin toss on a rate hike // the BoE is making the same mistake as the Fed, i.e., hiking BEFORE balance sheet "normalization"
Mtl JP 11:27 GMT August 1, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 1 August 2018
Good morning kids !
looking over the tactical map for today , all u need to know to try to trade today's FOMC either before or after:
Mtl JP 19:50 GMT July 29, 2018
U.S. Treasury's Mnuchin says he sees at least 3 percent growth for next 4-5 years - RTRS JULY 29, 2018
--
Mnuchin Suggests Fed Rate Rises Are OK After Trump Attacked Them - BBRG JULY 29
BUT
before that there ll be couple of trade opps in the form of
12:15 AA US ADP Jobs con: 180 pre: 177 and
14:00 A US ISM Mfg PMI 59.1 60.2
PAR 10:41 GMT August 1, 2018
FED MEETING
Reply
Opinion: The verdict is in: QE gave us little bang for the buck
In fact, the study pointed out, “European news — including political events, economic data and monetary policy developments — was a major persistent driver of the U.S. bond market during this period,” lowering 10-year Treasury yields by some 150 basis points during the sample period.
Events like the Greek debt crisis, the European Central Bank’s own QE program, and fears the European Union might collapse were “a bigger driver of the U.S. bond market than what the Fed was doing,” Harris said.
QE
UK JY 10:10 GMT August 1, 2018
GBP
Reply
May be seeing some eurgbp selling ahead of boe rate hike tomorrow
PAR 10:03 GMT August 1, 2018
If you can't convince , confuse
Reply
The US is clearly giving out very mixed messages on trade and tariffs. Within the past 24 hours alone @jendeben and @JenniferJJacobs have had two big scoops: One saying that Mnuchin was seeking fresh talks, the second that the US was going to raise tariffs from 10% to 25%. (2)
PAR 08:39 GMT August 1, 2018
ITALY
Reply
#Italy’s current account position is one of country’s most improved fundamentals since GFC, DBRS says. Improved by 6.2ppts to surplus of 2.8% of GDP in 2017, highest level since 1997. Has helped narrow Italy’s neg net int investment pos to -6.7% of GDP in 2017 from -24.7% in 2014
GVI Trader john 08:10 GMT August 1, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 1 August 2018
For AT Trading
See the Amazing Trader Live!
GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:
NEUTRAL
Spot EURUSD: 1.1685
Pivot Point: 1.1711
This Week: 1.1648-1.1745
Wed: 1.1672-1.1694
Tue: 1.1689-1.1745
Mon: 1.1648-1.1719
Fri: 1.1621-1.1664
Thu: 1.1640-1.1744
20-day avg: 1.1689
50-day avg: 1.1677
100-day avg: 1.1925
200-day avg: 1.1981
Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points
Fed 25bp hike odds for Sep 26: 100% (100%)
10-yr Bonds
US: 2.954% -1.9bp
DE: 0.433% -1.6bp
GB: 1.338% -1.0bp
JP: 0.062% -4.2bp
DAX: -16
Implied Open
DJ: -1
SP: +1.6
Mtl JP 06:55 GMT August 1, 2018
TRUMP
china does not understand.
increase the pain.
-
BoD usdcny
PAR 06:40 GMT August 1, 2018
TRUMP
Reply
Trump Advisers Urge Imposing Steeper Tariffs Against China
Some administration advisers are urging President Trump to raise the stakes with a sharp increase in the level of tariffs proposed for $200 billion in Chinese imports targeted for punitive measures. 107
PAR 06:38 GMT August 1, 2018
ECB DRAGHI PONZI MAFIA
Reply
ECB Balance Sheet has hit another All-time high as Draghi keeps printing press rumbling. Total Assets rose by another €7bn to €4,612bn on QE, but bank's early TLTRO3 repayments slow the rise. ECB Balance Sheet now equates to 41.3% of EZ GDP, while Fed's shrank to <21% of US GDP
GVI Trader Jay Meisler 00:08 GMT August 1, 2018
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Livingston nh 00:06 GMT August 1, 2018
More on QTs - the Anti-POMOs
CB - it's an interesting note that the biggest moves occur when MBS and UST both are on offer // UST is just currency w/ a coupon so nearly like for like BUT the MBS is where the the Fed is stuck // Fed had a bicephalic QE w/ MBS and UST -UST was deflationary (aka HOARDING) and MBS was new money inflationary // Fed failed to move out of the swamp by unwinding before hiking s/t term rate - hence the inversion scare
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Weaker But Beats Street July 2018
