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Forex Forum Archive for 08/20/2018

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Mtl JP 23:14 GMT August 20, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

maybe someone can fill in correctives and / or exactitudes:

Declaration of Currency Manipulator is the prerogative of The Treasury Dept

The Tr Dep would do so thru one of its Semi-Annual Report to Congress on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies (last one I believe was April 13th, next one should be in October)

In April, the Monitoring List listed China, Japan, Korea, Germany, Switzerland, and India.

The potential consequences of actually being declared CCy Manipulator are: ___
-
Odds of President Trump pre-announcing intensification of "war" with Xi: ___

Mtl JP 20:54 GMT August 20, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

“I think China’s manipulating their currency, absolutely. And I think the euro is being manipulated also,”

Trump

GVI 20:36 GMT August 20, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

President Trump: not thrilled with what Fed Chief Powell is doing so far, should be more accommodating - press interview Fed Commentary: - Asked about Fed independence, says believes Fed is 'doing what is right for the country' - Asserts Fed should be more accommodating and 'I should be given some help by the Fed' - Trump says he will continue to criticize the Fed if it continues to raise rates

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader john 20:29 GMT August 20, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 21 August 2018

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:

NEGATIVE-NEUTRAL
Spot EURUSD: 1.1471
Pivot Point: 1.1444

Last Week: 1.1394-1.1481
Mon: 1.1394-1.1481
Fri: 1.1366-1.1442
Thu: 1.1301-1.1409
Wed: 1.1301-1.1355

20-day avg: 1.1550
50-day avg: 1.1618
100-day avg: 1.1807
200-day avg: 1.1970

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Sep 26: 94% (92%)

Mtl JP 20:06 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

10yr 2.823% = its lowest since May 29

GVI Forex Blog 19:59 GMT August 20, 2018
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 19 August 2018
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 19 August 2018

GVI Forex Blog 18:58 GMT August 20, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 21 August 2018
Reply   

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 21 Aug 2018
No Major Data
Wed 22 Aug 2018
AA 12:30 CA- Retail Sales
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
Thu 23 Aug 2018
AFlash Service PMIs
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 24 Aug 2018
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Tuesday Trading Checklist 21 August 2018

Mtl JP 18:43 GMT August 20, 2018
RISK ON

and/or tax the frogs more
(as they can't escape)

PAR 18:12 GMT August 20, 2018
RISK ON

Zero interest rate policy . With $ trillions of debt higher interest rates become a presidents nightmare.

You need to borrow just to pay the interest on your debt .

Trump looking for a scapegoat .

Mtl JP 17:59 GMT August 20, 2018
RISK ON

PAR how would a Trump win over powell look ?

PAR 17:31 GMT August 20, 2018
RISK ON
Reply   
US stocks and bonds higher , dollar lower as Trump wants FED to stop raising us interest rates . Trump against the FED .

I guess eventually Trump will win .

Mtl JP 17:15 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

And so one can take a betting position:

Powell told Marketplace host Kai Ryssdal that he is “not concerned” about political pressure and that he’s keeping his focus on carrying out the Fed’s mandate from Congress:

“We have a long tradition here of conducting policy in a particular way, and that way is independent of all political concerns,” he said. “We do our work in a strictly nonpolitical way, based on detailed analysis, which we put on the record

Mtl JP 17:03 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

think powell is different ?
He whined to congressional committee that “U.S. fiscal policy has been on an unsustainable path for some time. It continues to be unsustainable.”

But bottom line is that the policy is still on unsustainable path.
When will it hit the proverbial wall: when the debt will equal GDP ?

IF GDP were to remain static at current ~20trillion trump still has 19trillion to play with

GVI 16:58 GMT August 20, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

ECB's Weidmann (Germany): central bankers may have to address imbalances

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Kl Fs 16:54 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

Trump wants usd become toilet paper, so be it. Cheers.

GVI 16:42 GMT August 20, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

(EU) French President Macron, German Chancellor Merkel to meet in Paris in early September regarding Brexit - press - Source TradeTheNews.com

Mtl JP 16:40 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

AT shows 1.1480 IF u want an uP side trgt

dc CB 16:26 GMT August 20, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

overheard by the caterer

Mtl JP 16:25 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

usdcad 1.3050 - 1.3150 range still struggling to break out
just whack-a-mole for now
good luck trading it

GVI 16:04 GMT August 20, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

President Trump reportedly complaining about Fed Chief Powell raising rates - press - Reportedly commented this weekend at a fundraiser in the Hamptons that he had expected Powell to pursue a 'cheap money' policy

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GAUTENG A.T 16:00 GMT August 20, 2018
RAND DROP
Reply   
The Rand Drop by almost 1% against the usd

Rand to Dollar

Mtl JP 15:46 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

packed = panicked

Mtl JP 15:45 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

IF u r refering to JPM/tsl
remember that institutional types do not like risk
at current 302-ish they neither unbridled buyer enthusiasts nor packed sellers - more like deer looking into headlights atm
-
Bottom Line
trading decision (trade or not trade) is yours
try does not count

GAUTENG A.T 15:41 GMT August 20, 2018
RAND AND DOLLAR
Reply   
The Rand is expected to continue drop against the Usd

Usd to Zar

lkwd jj 15:38 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

fade the news ?

Mtl JP 15:28 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

My aversion to verbs is past tense is legend.

Could not say better why than Coreen T. Sol CFA: “A lagging indicator is something that tells you what is going to happen after it already happened.”

Mtl JP 15:04 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

haha... J.P. Morgan slashed its stock price target to $195 from $308

reminds me of Rodney D on the golf course getting a call from broker...
"Everybody's buying? Then Sell, sell, sell."
but in reverse

Mtl JP 14:51 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

and poloz on saturday

dc CB 14:50 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

Time to remember that time in September
When life was grand and we tasted the honey
Time to remember that time in September
After Bernanke told us "we'll give you free money"
Time to remember that time in September
When the The Shorts spilled their blood in the streets

Jackson Hole - Aug 23-24 2018
Powell Fri 10AM

dc CB 14:36 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

Chrome Dome Predicts

Oops

Livingston nh 14:02 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

Disconnect between FI and Stox in US and Europe -- US 30 yr nipped under 3% and 2/10 at 23// bonds know more than stox
//
S&P kinder to Turkey than expected - the complacency factor is dangerous

Venezuela leaves a lot of bagholders in bonds - USD/BRL above 4 next

GVI 14:02 GMT August 20, 2018
BREAKING NEWS
Reply   
Bank of Canada (BOC) Wilkins: monetary policy is about risk management - Financial vulnerabilities began to grow in 2014 and BOC responded by cutting rates - Mortgage holders will feel higher rates eventually- High debt levels means monetary policy has greater impact -

Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:50 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

If it comes across that way it is not my intention. I am not sensitive about anything to do with trading - very thick skin - especially AT, which speaks for itself. The beauty of AT is I never have to defend it.

I am just pointing out the difference between John's macro bias and a day trading bias. I took the opportunity to point out what AT was showing as a way to encourage you guys (and gals) to try it.

So rather than defensive it was offensive.

Kl Fs 13:50 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

Btw i have been talking about GV bias not your AT. So it is strange to me that you sounded so defensive.

Kl Fs 13:47 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

Jay, why you are always so sensitive about AT?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:42 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

FS, This is not a contest and depends on your time frame .You said that at 1.1438 and it fell to 1.1394 before bouncing.

Intra-day bias changes often, AT, for example, showed a shift to the upside starting at 1.1415.

Mtl JP 13:37 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018



bingo - $290 elon's ~34 million shares tasting "smartish"

Kl Fs 13:36 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

Told you GV bias is lagging. Euro easier BOD

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:30 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

JP, you know how I feel about the 50 level..

In EURUSD, up AT episode rewards BOD. AT res at 1.1440-44

Posted earlier on the GVI/AT Forum

Monday Trading Checklist GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:38 GMT 08/20/2018 - My Profile
Stops just run at 1.14. 1.1380-00 is an AT support zone.

The Amazing Trader

Mtl JP 13:19 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

Jay I also like round numbers

Mtl JP 12:57 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

dc CB - IF u r short already this morning u ll be adding $s to your wallet
as puppy is looking pukey sick probably hit market sub $290
-
lets try to get rich !

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:55 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

JP, AT gave you a tighter res level at 1.1434

The Amazing Trader

Mtl JP 12:51 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

EURO 1.1430-ish
On s/term (5 min bar) preferring selling puppy's pops against 1.1450
using Jay's hit'n run in/out trade tactic

Mtl JP 12:46 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018



96.10
------
Fundamentals to left of me
fundamentals to the right ...
- Xi / Donald tariff spat
- Donald / erdogan
- brexit
- contagion jitters (Italy)
powel vs donald on 24th (re dlr strength vs interest)

Lots the fundamental funnies are known (i.e priced in)

Bottom Line
chart is that of the USDX
Qtn is: what would push the USD higher past its 96.84 high
market old saw: if it wont go uP, it will go down


UK JY 12:45 GMT August 20, 2018
GBP

Likely came out of eurgbp. Sold eurusd through 1.1400 and then bought gbpusd for the other leg.

Thin market trade.

GVI Trader john 12:36 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

10s 2.850%
DJ +62

Mtl JP 12:34 GMT August 20, 2018
GBP

GBP spike is just a joke
and an opp to Sell Pops

GVI Trader john 12:15 GMT August 20, 2018
Maduro orders 96 percent devaluation in hyperinflation-stricken Venezuela --Reuters.com
Reply   
Maduro orders 96 percent devaluation in hyperinflation-stricken Venezuela
Alexandra Ulmer, Corina Pons


CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro announced on Friday a single exchange rate pegged to his socialist government’s petro cryptocurrency, effectively devaluing by 96 percent in a move economists said would fan hyperinflation in the chaotic country.

Maduro orders 96 percent devaluation in hyperinflation-stricken Venezuela

Mtl JP 12:13 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

Reminder :
Donald J. Trump
‏@realDonaldTrump
Follow Follow @realDonaldTrump
Turkey has taken advantage of the United States for many years. They are now holding our wonderful Christian Pastor, who I must now ask to represent our Country as a great patriot hostage. We will pay nothing for the release of an innocent man, but we are cutting back on Turkey! - 4:30 PM - 16 Aug 2018

Now

Turkey's Erdogan says attack on economy no different from attack on flag

kl shawn 11:20 GMT August 20, 2018
sell usdcad
Reply   
daily looks heavy, sold 13073, stop 13137, target 1.2950-60

Dubai MA 11:07 GMT August 20, 2018
GBP
Reply   
Is there any news on GBP? Spiking higher.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:12 GMT August 20, 2018
Amazing Trader Update

You have seen me promote the Amazing Trader and the following will give you an idea why

AT promotes thinking in terms of episodes and market timing, plus it provides levels to trade from and use as stops. If the disciplined trader can accept and understand those ideas, they should become better traders.


Contact me if you would like to discuss this in more detail

or simply sign up below

The Amazing Trader

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:51 GMT August 20, 2018
Amazing Trader Update

As posted last night and so far AT support in the 1.1400-07 range is holding. 1.1400 is the key level.

Amazing Trader Update
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 22:23 GMT 08/19/2018 - My Profile

EURUSD 1.1437

Fri high 1.1444

Key AT res 1.1482 and 1.1536

Former highs 1.1433 and 1,1420

AT supports 1.1400-7

The Amazing Trader

GVI Trader john 09:43 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:

NEGATIVE-NEUTRAL
Spot EURUSD: 1.1402
Pivot Point: 1.1415

Last Week: 1.1301-1.1442
Mon: 1.1403-1.1440
Fri: 1.1366-1.1442
Thu: 1.1301-1.1409
Wed: 1.1301-1.1355

20-day avg: 1.1562
50-day avg: 1.1624
100-day avg: 1.1816
200-day avg: 1.1972

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Sep 26: 94% (92%)

10-yr Bonds
US: 2.857% -0.4bp
DE: 0.309% +0.3bp
GB: 1.238% +0.9bp
JP: 0.095% -0.4bp

DAX: +114
Implied Open
DJ: +78
SP: +6.7




See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI Forex Blog 09:13 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018
Reply   

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 20 Aug 2018
No Major Data
Tue 21 Aug 2018
No Major Data
Wed 22 Aug 2018
AA 12:30 CA- Retail Sales
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
Thu 23 Aug 2018
AFlash Service PMIs
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 24 Aug 2018
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

dc CB 02:31 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

Johnny Depp?
Wrong

No...his twin

dc CB 02:28 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

(cough cough)
Tesla Shorts Up $1.2 Billion Since Musk "Going Private" Tweet As Saudis Plan Investment In Competitor---Zero Hedge

(ps when will Twitter BAN ZeroHedge) LMAO
That! Cause and Outrage....FCK Zero saw stuff EARLY!

dc CB 02:01 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

PS. the Original is also distorted by Managed Money Commod Funds, "Dudes betting OTM", which can result in Herd Following and Provided Huge Profits In Crop based Futures.

for instance, this year the persistant winter and the lack of precip in the Central US caused these Wizzards to bid up the prices...because the 2018 Crop, wudn't get planeted and it wud be a disaster.

Fast forward....the crop got planted, got rain and now as reported cud be a record. Ride the Roller Coaster --- watch the COT for a read on the "Dudes playin' with OPM-Large"

dc CB 01:45 GMT August 20, 2018
Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018

Mtl JP 20:37 GMT
COT is useless outdated data set. A waste of time as tea leaves for trading.

As I've posted here before the COT is NOT uselss, when is is applied to Commodity Based Futures. In the Way Back I got into a COT --- Currency Futures - discussion with the Long Ago GV enlighted poster Athens.

Currency futures are dwarfed by the real money cur trades... the Tally in futures can AT Best viewed as a Hedge for postions put on for reasons that cannot be known.

Grains(for which the report was originaly designed) Softs(sugar, cocoa, coffee). Moo Moos and Oink Oinks - If you know the historical postioning....This also goes for Crude and NatGas.
Futures ARE HEDGES, the RISK off loaded to Speculators (HOPERS)

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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