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Forex Forum Archive for 08/28/2018

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Mtl JP 22:11 GMT August 28, 2018
Winners and Losers

Winners and Losers
they are always there and everywhere
-------------------------------------------
Why a trend divergence in the S&P 500 and the VIX may spell trouble for stocks

The FEAR index...

The fear index is not behaving as it should

Mtl JP 21:56 GMT August 28, 2018
EUR



EURO 1.6930
I am biased uP while above t-line support
in a corollary I use DLRX 95 as bias pivot
for now, while under 95 = dlr down bias

Mtl JP 21:54 GMT August 28, 2018
EUR

USDTRY 6.2623
to pop N 6.7 = at least 7% from current
would be a nice gain
miam miam miam

Livingston nh 21:37 GMT August 28, 2018
EUR
Reply   
if USD/TRY pops above 6.7 - EUR reacts nega

Mtl JP 21:37 GMT August 28, 2018
Winners and Losers

yiieee-ha , having been ignored for last 5 or so weeks ...

Trudeau 'encouraged' by NAFTA progress as Canada faces pressure to sign or face auto tariffs

pretty sox and hair is encouraged ...

dc CB 21:27 GMT August 28, 2018
Winners and Losers

ok, sorry I was looking at the Treas page. I see what u r looking at now.
by the way, the NYFRD is actually pretty transparent - if U know where to look and finding out where to look is hard. IF we had a real Journalists working in the Financial Press --- they wud be doing the looking and reporting. But recall that post FOMC pressser when Pedro da Costa, then at the WSJ, asked Gammy Yellen the wrong question...he got shown the door ---

Pedro's twitter link

Livingston nh 21:25 GMT August 28, 2018
Winners and Losers

I'm just a simple fella - the Fed has a make believe target //
CPI @2.9% Fed funds @ 2% -- folks smarter than me think this a good deal!!

lkwd jj 20:49 GMT August 28, 2018
Winners and Losers

i was surprised that info as such was public, i guess.

dc CB 20:48 GMT August 28, 2018
Winners and Losers

jj don't understand the question

dc CB 20:43 GMT August 28, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 29 August 2018

API
Crude +38k (-1.49mm exp)
Cushing +130k (+50k exp)
Gasoline +21k
Distillates +982k

lkwd jj 20:38 GMT August 28, 2018
Winners and Losers

Cb did you see that the forex holdings are assets in euro and jpy ? are we getting a glimpse of the "hidden hand"?

lkwd jj 20:38 GMT August 28, 2018
Winners and Losers

Cb did you see that the forex holdings are assets in euro and jpy ? are we getting a glimpse of the "hidden hand"?

dc CB 20:30 GMT August 28, 2018
Winners and Losers

while on that SOMA page Note Well the size of the exirys(aka Mature) on Nov 15 --- $34bln ++. This will happen 10 days after the Mid Term US voting.

dc CB 20:18 GMT August 28, 2018
Winners and Losers

Friday is another QT day...last was the 15th ... $22bln and change...Hit the TNote TBond tab

SOMA

GVI Trader john 20:17 GMT August 28, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 29 August 2018


For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:


POSITIVE

Spot EURUSD: 1.1696
Pivot Point: 1.1698

This Week: 1.1594-1.1733
Tue: 1.1662-1.1733
Mon: 1.1594-1.1693
Fri: 1.1535-1.1640
Thu: 1.1529-1.1599

20-day avg: 1.1529
50-day avg: 1.1613
100-day avg: 1.1768
200-day avg: 1.1965

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Sep 26: 96% (96%)

10-yr Bonds
US: 2.846% -0.2bp
DE: 0.362% -1.5bp
GB: 1.437% +0.1bp
JP: 0.095% 0.0bp

DAX: +19
Implied Open
DJ: +44
SP: +2.1




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Mtl JP 20:16 GMT August 28, 2018
Winners and Losers

10-yr -> 2.882%
2--yr -> 2.669%
-------------------
0.213 which is uP from yesty's 0.18
which under 0.20 starts to tighten the donkeyhole in those to whom such matter matters

Mtl JP 20:09 GMT August 28, 2018
Winners and Losers

as IF by coincidence San Fran FED came out w/ piece yesterday,
pizzing of jerome's August 24, 2018 Monetary Policy in a Changing Economy which used "risk" 21x in an attempt to deflect and minimize attention from "the yield curve"

The SanFran gang, comedians that they are are "on the other hand"-ists, make Yield Curve front n center. See link below.

August 27, 2018 - Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions

Pretend-Innocently starting out The ability of the Treasury yield curve to predict future recessions has recently received a great deal of public attention. they kick jerome right on the kneecap with their 2nd assertion that

An inversion of the yield curve—when short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates—has been a reliable predictor of recessions.

dc CB 20:08 GMT August 28, 2018
Winners and Losers

nh
Bernake's Curse on the Fed was to set an Inflation Target -- Contex
==========================================

that was the Cohiba Smoke he blew up yr azimuth. the Mirrors: keep changing the way "inflation" is calculated so it never registers higher for more than a few months..

anecdote: I cut my finger and went to a chain drug store to buy some Neosporin ---- an OH SO common topical Over the Counter Med. been around for decades----costs near $8 for a 1oz tube. and don't get me started on the price of gauze pads.

Gouging my gouge...bleeding PAY UP or get infected.

dc CB 19:57 GMT August 28, 2018
The Onion?

just checked and the Link failed try again

China Hacked

Mtl JP 19:51 GMT August 28, 2018
Winners and Losers

nh 19:37 ya don't think his jackson hole drivel was written, edited and approved by... da chairman himself ?

Livingston nh 19:50 GMT August 28, 2018
Winners and Losers

Bernake's Curse on the Fed was to set an Inflation Target -- Context

dc CB 19:41 GMT August 28, 2018
Winners and Losers

JP
"Gammy Yellen" was the perfect face the bank propagandists, to tell us that we must accept a 0.001% Rate on OUR savings "just a few months longer"

And a brilliant choice by the O, to follow the "bearded academic" , the Professor Most Learned --- holding the Princeton Chair: Dean of The Great Depression. These credentials allowed him(them) to experiment and thus get away with never before seen give-aways...all with the Ivy League stamp of knowledge

Livingston nh 19:37 GMT August 28, 2018
Winners and Losers

He's a lawyer and if he was well trained the econ pointyheads are in trouble

Mtl JP 19:30 GMT August 28, 2018
Winners and Losers

nh 19:15 one huge advantage jerome has over janet is that his body / face / tone of voice language is much much more deadpan evolved.
it is an essential propaganda (the formation of folks attitudes) tool to fool the plebs into desired behavior when all you have to peddle is credibility.

dc CB 19:27 GMT August 28, 2018
The Onion?
Reply   
new John le Carré novel on the shelves in September.

Preview: on Zero Hedge

China Hacked

Livingston nh 19:19 GMT August 28, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 28 August 2018

But the buyers are getting scammed

dc CB 19:16 GMT August 28, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 28 August 2018

After a strong 2Y auction yesterday, moments ago the US Treasury sold $37BN in 5Y paper in what was at best a mediocre auction. The high yield of 2.765% was 1 basis point wide of the When Issued, 2.765% and below last month's 2.825%.

The Bid to Cover of 2.49 was also below the 6 month average of 2.52, and well below last month's 2.61.

The silver lining was the Indirects remained solid, and took down 66.2% of the auction, above the 6 month average of 61.2% but below the July 67.2%. Directs took down 9.0%, below the 10.6% average, leaving Dealers holding 24.7%, in line with the average print of 28.2% if fractionally above last month's 24.1%.

Overall, a mediocre auction if one that confirms demand for US paper remains solid even as the average auction size continues to increase.
ZeroHedge

Livingston nh 19:15 GMT August 28, 2018
Winners and Losers

Past few days listening to "Experts" about the yield curve effect and Fed folks - clueless, ignoring the negative real yield

How long will Powell bow to the economic unprovable ??

GVI 19:14 GMT August 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Reportedly Iran oil exports are falling faster than expected amid US pressure campaign - press

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 19:09 GMT August 28, 2018
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 28 August 2018
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 28 August 2018

dc CB 19:07 GMT August 28, 2018
USA MEXICO

from ZeroHedge

Mexico just stabbed Canada in the back in order to get a deal with the US on preferential terms to Canada, just as Trump desired, and in vivid demonstration of applied game theory in practice.

Canada Just Got Played"

Livingston nh 18:46 GMT August 28, 2018
Turkey
Reply   
USD/TRY 6.65 breakout level

PAR 18:41 GMT August 28, 2018
USA MEXICO
Reply   
Enrique we have some problems .

Livingston nh 18:38 GMT August 28, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 28 August 2018

Folks are buying MONEY (aka currency w/ a coupon) -- tomorrow Personal Income growth (interest Income is a much smaller growth rate) has been lagging for five years because of Fed policy - spending would have been much higher

PAR 17:19 GMT August 28, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 28 August 2018

74 billion sold . Still 34 billion to go . Piece of cake .

This month close to $ 200 sold . Fed , american private and public institutions just keep buying .

Mtl JP 17:08 GMT August 28, 2018
Winners and Losers

Winners and Losers
---------------------
The road to fresh stock-market highs is littered with these awful correction calls

One thing they all have in common:

Complete wrongness.

Mtl JP 17:00 GMT August 28, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 28 August 2018

munchkin's dept peddling off $37 billion of 5-year notes at top of the hour

Mtl JP 16:54 GMT August 28, 2018
GBPUSD 12915

after the 12:37 piece which referred to WSJ report
REUTERS is out now with its own:

Germany not considering financial aid for Turkey: German official

making the faceless/nameless one "government official" look as stupid as a wet chicken as

...A second German official told Reuters: “You can’t do much from outside but to stress that Turkey must reform itself.”

booowahaha... a creditor, whose donkeyhole is tightening in anticipation of of its in-debtor going wonki and causing mayhem to its bank(s) "can't do much from outside" other than to "stress that Turkey must reform itself".

And to think that they will roll out red carpet and best of german wine beer and schnitzels for erdogan next month during a "a state visit to Germany next month" allegedly in "another sign that the two countries want to patch up relations."

Oh my oh my... how have the germans become laughing stock!

PAR 16:37 GMT August 28, 2018
Silicon Valley
Reply   
Tech billionaires like Trump tax cuts but don't like Trump .

Mtl JP 16:08 GMT August 28, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 28 August 2018

10-yr up 3 bps at 2.880%
2-yr at 2.661%

PAR 15:58 GMT August 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

When I look for a book on Amazon I first always get an anti Trump sugge stion . LOL

PAR 15:56 GMT August 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Guess Google is run by the KGB ?

Mtl JP 15:54 GMT August 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

about 5hrs late so beg your pardon
-
he says she says type, fwiw:

Carney's Future Back in Spotlight Amid No-Deal Brexit Talk - BBRG
By Lucy Meakin and Jess Shankleman
August 28, 2018, 6:23 AM EDT Updated on August 28, 2018, 9:30 AM EDT

BOE Governor is due to step down from role in June 2019
Treasury denies report that it’s asked Carney to extend term

lkwd jj 15:43 GMT August 28, 2018
euro
Reply   
been quiet in here after this move today.....

GVI Forex Blog 15:34 GMT August 28, 2018
Wednesday Trading Checklist 29 August 2018
Reply   

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 28 Aug 2018
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Thu 30 Aug 2018
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- PCE Deflator
A 12:30 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 31 Aug 2018
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 07:55 DE- Jobless
AA 09:00 EZ- flash HICP
A 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Wednesday Trading Checklist 29 August 2018

Mtl JP 15:26 GMT August 28, 2018
Trump

PAR obviously not low nuff
in case u missed it earlier below :

12:33 GMT 08/28/2018
U.S. (USD bn) Advance Goods Balance July 2018
ALERT
-72.2 vs. -68.6 exp. vs. -67.9 prev.
U.S. Balance on Goods and Services


President Trump still has a long LONG way yet to whack the dollar

Mtl JP 15:23 GMT August 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

ieeha !!
Kudlow says White House ‘taking a look’ at regulating Google searches

PAR 15:22 GMT August 28, 2018
Trump

Since Trump came to power the dollar has been losing ground .

PAR 15:19 GMT August 28, 2018
Jerome Powell
Reply   
FED needs to keep 10 year yields far below 3% or Trump gets very angry .

Mtl JP 15:17 GMT August 28, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 28 August 2018

DLRX 94.46
as long as puppy wallows sub 95
prospects r 4 more downside

lkwd jj 15:16 GMT August 28, 2018
BRAZIL

pick up the chain link fence along the border and theyre one happy family.

PAR 15:07 GMT August 28, 2018
TSLA vs AUDI
Reply   
AUDI e tron € 80.000

AUDI

PAR 14:53 GMT August 28, 2018
BRAZIL

Brazil becoming Argentina ?

lkwd jj 14:47 GMT August 28, 2018
BRAZIL

thats keeping pressure on sugar coffee and beans as farmers try to sell forward as much as they can to get rates today before they get worse tomorrow. been going on for a few weeks now....

PAR 14:47 GMT August 28, 2018
TSLA vs Jaguar
Reply   
Jaguar i Pace €78.000

Jaguar

GVI 14:44 GMT August 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Fed's Kashkari (non-voter, dove): Expansions do not last forever, Fed aims to extend it - US economy looks good, job market still strong

- Source TradeTheNews.com

PAR 14:42 GMT August 28, 2018
BRAZIL
Reply   
Brazilean real drops to new low for the year .

PAR 14:36 GMT August 28, 2018
Trump

Trumps behavior and Powells talk send the dollar lower for 8 days in a row .

PAR 14:30 GMT August 28, 2018
Trump

Trumps weekend

Trumps weekend

PAR 14:29 GMT August 28, 2018
Trump
Reply   


https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/08/donald-trump-nuts-rejects-war-council-intervention-goes-it-alone?mbid=nl_th_5b847b8723d87c42494df4da&CNDID=54655656&spMailingID=14140985&spUserID=Mjg5MzkyODgyMTQ2S0&spJobID=1462431793&spReportId=MTQ2MjQzMTc5MwS2

Amman wfakhoury 14:22 GMT August 28, 2018
GBPUSD 12925
Reply   
Now 12890 will reach 12908 then 12925 buy add buy if decline


The only one in the world who confirms the next level and every hour movement

GVI Trader john 14:11 GMT August 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Conference Board Survey Beats Estimates For August 2018

Divergence between Conference Board and Michigan striking...

GVI Forex Blog 14:09 GMT August 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Conference Board Survey Beats Estimates For August 2018
Reply   
Conference Board data for August 2018 beats expectations.

Conference Board Survey Chart

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Conference Board Survey Beats Estimates For August 2018

GVI Trader john 14:00 GMT August 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. data beats...

GVI Trader john 14:00 GMT August 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Richmond Fed Index August 2018




NEWS ALERT
+24 vs. +18 exp. vs. +20 prev.


TTN: Live News



+++++++++++++


BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Conference Board Survey August 2018




NEWS ALERT
133.4 vs. 126.5 exp. vs. 127.4(r ) prev.

RELEASE: Consumer Confidence Data



TTN: Live News Special Offer
src="/images/TTN.gif" border="1">



Mtl JP 13:55 GMT August 28, 2018
Sell usd??



red ditto for gbp
be an Amazing Massacre IF n when the yellow/blue lines should hold and puppy go on a ladder destroying rampage

Mtl JP 13:47 GMT August 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

It is rather amuzing if not outright disturbing to read that
"Berlin fears a meltdown of the Turkish economy could spill over into Europe with dire consequences. ... ISTANBUL—The German government is considering providing "...

1) "Berlin", just like "German government" do not do anything in themselves. People with identifiable names can / may do some things.

2) ditto for "Turkey"

The reporting putzhood is almost as bad as when a piece claims "un-named sources". What is wrong with these folks that they shy from pinning names - do they not investigate and verify : why just half-baked story ?

Jkt Abel 13:44 GMT August 28, 2018
Sell usd??

Red, chatter for 11250 suddenly gone, if your level broken they will start talking about 125

london red 13:39 GMT August 28, 2018
Sell usd??

euro key res by 11750/90. if goes abv there then next 200dma. for now look for a tradeable top at/ahead of 11750/90. end of month euro buying is helping eurgbp so in turn eurusd. lrg 91 cent barrier on eurgbp may not survive if interest turns out strong. but euro st looking toppy by 11750/90 so would def look to fade in there.

Mtl JP 13:07 GMT August 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

uk's may out earlier squawking that she wants to see turkey's economy flourish...
-
rather than be concerned with hallucinations about some "full-blown economic crisis" fx types run better odds of making moo-la off a run on banks and/or currency

Jkt Abel 13:04 GMT August 28, 2018
Sell usd??
Reply   
Now what? Usd rally is over?

GVI Trader john 13:00 GMT August 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Case Shiller-20 June 2018

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
+6.30% vs. +6.40% exp. vs. +6.50% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI 12:37 GMT August 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Germany considers offering Turkey a financial lifeline - press - concerns grow in Berlin that a full-blown economic crisis could destabilize the region- talks are at an early stage and may not result in any aid

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Amman wfakhoury 12:34 GMT August 28, 2018
GBPUSD 12915

price reached 12915 order closed

GVI Trader john 12:33 GMT August 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. (USD bn) Advance Goods Balance July 2018



ALERT
-72.2 vs. -68.6 exp. vs. -67.9 prev.
U.S. Balance on Goods and Services


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Amman wfakhoury 12:18 GMT August 28, 2018
GBPUSD 12915
Reply   
now 12908 and 12915 100% will be reached

Mtl JP 11:49 GMT August 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

not sure what the trade off this should be:
....results on “Trump News” are from National Left-Wing Media, very dangerous. Google & others are suppressing voices of Conservatives and hiding information and news that is good. They are controlling what we can & cannot see. This is a very serious situation-will be addressed! - Trump 2:34 AM - 28 Aug 2018

for now just fwiw

Mtl JP 11:29 GMT August 28, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 28 August 2018



DLRX 94.60-ish
that moment of truth ...
right on S line
feel free to take a side
either way it is low risk

GVI 10:55 GMT August 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

Govt spokesperson Swift: Working on October deadline for Brexit agreement - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI 10:30 GMT August 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS

BOE Gov Carney said to have been asked by govt to stay in position until 2020 (approx 1-year extension) - Financial press

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader john 09:23 GMT August 28, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 28 August 2018

For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:


POSITIVE

Spot EURUSD: 1.1691
Pivot Point: 1.1656

This Week: 1.1594-1.1699
Tue: 1.1662-1.1699
Mon: 1.1594-1.1693
Fri: 1.1535-1.1640
Thu: 1.1529-1.1599

20-day avg: 1.1529
50-day avg: 1.1610
100-day avg: 1.1774
200-day avg: 1.1966

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Sep 26: 96% (96%)

10-yr Bonds
US: 2.846% -0.2bp
DE: 0.362% -1.5bp
GB: 1.437% +0.1bp
JP: 0.095% 0.0bp

DAX: +19
Implied Open
DJ: +44
SP: +2.1




See the Amazing Trader Live!

Amman wfakhoury 09:02 GMT August 28, 2018
GBPUSD 12908
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 11:15 GMT August 23, 2018
GBPUSD 1.2908: Reply
100% confirmed signal
Price now 12891 ..buy tp 12908
_____________________-
12908 reached


The only one in the world who confirms the next level and every hour movement

GVI Forex Blog 09:00 GMT August 28, 2018
Tuesday Trading Checklist 28 August 2018
Reply   

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 28 Aug 2018
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 29 Aug 2018
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Aug 2018
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- PCE Deflator
A 12:30 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 31 Aug 2018
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 07:55 DE- Jobless
AA 09:00 EZ- flash HICP
A 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Tuesday Trading Checklist 26 August 2018

Fukuoka joyya 03:32 GMT August 28, 2018
Dollar Weakness

Hungary pays off IMF debt, may eye EU exit hungary also asking imf leave hungary.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzToBNKVwBs

Fukuoka joyya 02:45 GMT August 28, 2018
Dollar Weakness

i do not think so last time us30=48once gold now 21.666once....

stay short stox long gold silver....

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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