Forex Forum Archive for 09/28/2018

HK RF@ 21:30 GMT September 28, 2018
Weekly Key reversal? Do not get too excited!!!
Reply   
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The week which started on June 11 2018 ended in a key reversal formation.
Also closing at 1.16 like today.
But the following week drama was only 100 pips lower at 1.1500.

Shorter time chart formation, suggest that a retrace to 1.1680 is still possible.
So Monday(at least Asia time) may be a "sit on your hands day".

EURUSD longs gone; For me it means, that the number of active participants may have been reduced significantly, which means that big commercials, can easily manipulate prices at their will to hunt for stops.
So no need to get too excited from that wkly key reversal, it may be just be a trap for short term traders..

GVI Trader john 19:48 GMT September 28, 2018
Commitment Of Traders Report For 25 September 2018
Reply   
For Amazing Traders monitoring levels on stops for trading strategies...
COT report position highlights:


EURUSD longs gone

USDJPY longs increasing

GBPUSD shorts persist

USDCAD longs narrowing?

AUDUSD shorts higher

Mtl JP 19:48 GMT September 28, 2018
Winners and Losers



Winners and Losers
----------------------
Tesla:
Yesty close: 307.59
Quote: 260.50

Margin
- allows to buy more securities that one could with cash only.
- is the difference between the market value of a stock and the loan amount.

100 shares x $10 x 50% margin rate = $500 required cash in account to buy $1000 worth of shares.

Always, ALWAYS KNOW the amount by which a stock falling in price will wipe out your position so that will lose all your money, plus interest and commissions.

The BEAUTY of a margin account vs a cash account is that when things go south, they get ugly really fast. In fact so ugly as to lead to personal or corporate bankruptcy, possibly suicide.

Everything in your account - ALL you assets - as well as your personal guarantee, are held as assurance by the broker. You WILL repay the debt no matter what happens in the trading account itself.

IF the account blows up you are on the hook for the money immediately (usually within 3 days max).
No payment plan.
No terms.

If you don't pay the broker can haul you to court to get judgments to seize your other assets. You may have to borrow new money (ie go into debt) to pay off the broker's judgement.

GVI Forex Blog 19:03 GMT September 28, 2018
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For September 28, 2018
Reply   

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For September 28, 2018

GVI Forex Blog 18:32 GMT September 28, 2018
Equities Higher. 10-Yr Bond Yields Down. FX: USD And EUR Mixed
Reply   

Equities Higher. 10-Yr Bond Yields Down. FX: USD And EUR Mixed

GVI Trader john 17:05 GMT September 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Baker Hughes Rig Count

NEWS ALERT
U.S.
Total: 1054 vs. 1053 (+1) prev.
Oil: 863 vs. 866 (-3) prev.
Canada: 178 vs. 197 (-19)

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Kl Fs 16:24 GMT September 28, 2018
Sell euro

We dont have 11630. Like red said, feel free to try some fade

Kl Shawn 16:17 GMT September 28, 2018
Sell euro

So you guys play a close below 1.16 if we dont get 11650?

london red 16:09 GMT September 28, 2018
Sell euro

profit taking in eurgbp kicked it off pre london close. Its month end so lot of book squaring takes place so not worth reading anything into such moves unless they follow thru next mon/tuesday

Kl Shawn 16:09 GMT September 28, 2018
Sell euro

Expect the unexpected, potus...

Jkt Abel 16:07 GMT September 28, 2018
Sell euro

Thanks red, after earlier move i dont think the fresh longs will be willing to hold the buy into weekend, euro should ease back to 116 and below into the close barring surprise move to HOD as you mentioned

london red 16:00 GMT September 28, 2018
Sell euro

prev highs by 11651 so a good area to stop (abv) but ahead of this some res by 11630 which may be enough. This late in day if 30 breaks euro may move the nto to new hod as its late friday and mkt will be unwillingness ng to sell euros on hod ahead of weekend so rightly you are using the 11630 as the pivot.

Jkt Abel 15:55 GMT September 28, 2018
Sell euro

Why is euro getting bid? Sold also 11627, stop above day's high per red's suggestion obviously, good r/r

Manila Tom 15:52 GMT September 28, 2018
Sell euro
Reply   
Follow you Td and red, short euro 11624, stop 11661, lets go
Target 11570 and below

Singapore Td 15:51 GMT September 28, 2018
Ranges

Thanks red for the suggestion, reload euro short big time 11624, stop 11657. One more add around 11630-40

GVI 15:32 GMT September 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Atlanta Fed cuts Q3 GDP forecast to 3.6% from 3.8% prior - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI 15:16 GMT September 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

New York Fed Nowcast: raises Q3 GDP forecast to 2.5% from 2.3% prior; raises Q4 forecast to 2.9% from 2.7% prior - Source TradeTheNews.com

dc CB 14:41 GMT September 28, 2018
Winners and Losers

https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-sued-by-the-sec-for-securities-fraud-1538079650

Elon's Dream

SaaR KaL 14:40 GMT September 28, 2018
Eurusd Long Haul

EUR/JPY(Close) 9/28/18 4:15 PM
Avg Range 131.6589 129.9115
Max / Min 132.5113 129.3481

shorts

SaaR KaL 14:33 GMT September 28, 2018
Eurusd Long Haul
Reply   

EUR/USD(Close) 1/14/19 9:28 AM
Avg Range 1.2018 1.0483
Max / Min 1.2706 0.9711


EUR/USD(Close) 3/11/19 9:31 AM
Avg Range 1.2148 1.0246
Max / Min 1.2901 0.9527


EUR/USD(Close) 7/2/19 2:16 AM
Avg Range 1.3371 1.0610
Max / Min 1.5791 0.9123


EUR/USD(Close) 4/8/20 7:23 PM
Avg Range 1.4542 1.0775
Max / Min 1.6697 0.8641

Mtl JP 14:12 GMT September 28, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 28 September 2018

GBP
Upcoming event

Conservative Party Conference 2018
Monday 1 October 2018, 08:00 - Tuesday 2 October 2018, 21:00

Anything good about it to enrich account ?

GVI Forex Blog 14:07 GMT September 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. University Of Michigan Data Revised Down Slightly For September 2018
Reply   
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey. Final September 2018 preliminary data revised down slightly.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. University Of Michigan Data Revised Down Slightly For September 2018

Mtl JP 14:06 GMT September 28, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 28 September 2018

GBP LoD 1.3002
letssee post-NY cut

GBP 1.3009
------------
Pivot 1.3129 - poof
Sup 1 1.3040 - poof
Sup 2 1.2996
Sup 3 1.2907

Lets see how it plays out

SaaR KaL 14:06 GMT September 28, 2018
Ranges

Long USDCAD...adding till 1.2920
USD/CAD(Close)
Avg Range 1.3031 1.2961
Max / Min 1.3052 1.2920

GVI Trader john 14:00 GMT September 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

University of Michigan Sentiment Index Final August 2018

ALERT
100.1 vs. 100.6 exp. vs. 100.6 preliminary

RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment

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london red 13:48 GMT September 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

eurgbp. efforts being made to move pair above key uptrend channels today by 8882 and 8860.

GVI Trader john 13:45 GMT September 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Chicago PMI September 2018

NEWS ALERT
60.4 vs. 62.3 exp. vs. 63.6 prev.

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SaaR KaL 13:35 GMT September 28, 2018
Ranges

using 5 Minutes

GBP/USD(Close) 9/28/18 4:00 PM
Avg Range 1.3066 1.2969
Max / Min 1.3088 1.2947

SaaR KaL 13:26 GMT September 28, 2018
Ranges

Just depends on the expiry of the orders

EUR/USD(Close) 10/1/18 6:33 PM
Avg Range 1.1773 1.1507
Max / Min 1.1901 1.1361

EUR/USD(Close) 10/4/18 9:10 AM
Avg Range 1.1876 1.1560
Max / Min 1.2045 1.1335

EUR/USD(Close) 10/9/18 3:10 AM
Avg Range 1.2003 1.1610
Max / Min 1.2183 1.1308

EUR/USD(Close) 10/15/18 11:31 PM
Avg Range 1.2011 1.1552
Max / Min 1.2211 1.1320

EUR/USD(Close) 11/1/18 9:11 AM
Avg Range 1.2155 1.1378
Max / Min 1.2405 1.1093

dc CB 13:26 GMT September 28, 2018
October

sense a pattern here?
(Supreme Court nominee --- the first of 2 rounds of voting (Judicial Commtee, then the full Senate) for comfirmation have YET TO TAKE PLACE.

Headlines already:
Democrats Are Already Plotting Kavanaugh's Impeachment

london red 13:16 GMT September 28, 2018
Ranges

116/11610/11630/11650. any higher than that would neutralise move lower. much rebound unlikely but those are the levels to fade if seen. with stop at 11655

SaaR KaL 13:15 GMT September 28, 2018
Ranges

USOil(Close)
Avg Range 72.4640 71.7243
Max / Min 72.7352 71.4514

USD/JPY(Close)
Avg Range 113.6241 113.0158
Max / Min 113.7527 112.9132

dc CB 13:13 GMT September 28, 2018
October
Reply   
as of Mon there will be 26 trading days until the US Midterm election day.----
Tues Nov 6

SaaR KaL 13:01 GMT September 28, 2018
Ranges
Reply   
EUR/USD(Close)
Avg Range 1.1604 1.1494
Max / Min 1.1644 1.1462

GBP/USD(Close)
Avg Range 1.3071 1.2977
Max / Min 1.3097 1.2953

USD/CAD(Close)
Avg Range 1.3031 1.2961
Max / Min 1.3052 1.2920

GVI Forex Blog 12:40 GMT September 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Core PCE Deflator Hits its Fed Target In August 2018
Reply   
U.S. August 2018 Core PCE Deflator at its L-T target level. Fed Targets the core PCE Deflator at 2.00%.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Core PCE Deflator Hits its Fed Target In August 2018

GVI Trader john 12:32 GMT September 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Personal Income/PCE Deflator August, 2018

ALERT
Personal Income +0.30% vs. +0.40% exp v +0.30% prev.
Core PCE Defl +2.00% vs. +2.00% exp. vs. +2.00% prev.


RELEASE: Personal Income

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-------------------


Canada: GDP July 2018





ALERT
m/m +00.20% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. 0.00% prev.

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HK RF@ 11:55 GMT September 28, 2018
E/$ 1.1533 likely next.
Reply   
.

Mtl JP 11:53 GMT September 28, 2018
Winners and Losers

Winners and Losers
----------------------
Tesla yesty close: $307.60

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Pre-Market Trading
$267.19 40.3313.11%

Puppy has good odds of seeing $242
Should be BoD to $200/180
due dilligence mandatory

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:50 GMT September 28, 2018
Amazing Trader Update
Reply   
EURUSD 1.1776

Currently, 1.1593 is closest significant AT resistance

1.1565 is the AT target following the 1.1609 break as noted earlier. LOD 1.1570 so came pretty close

The Amazing Trader

Sydney ACC 11:47 GMT September 28, 2018
euro, big sell?

FT reports the yield on the benchmark Italian 10-year bond jumped 35 basis points (0.35 percentage points) to 3.23 per cent, while that on the three-year note shot 47bp higher to 1.727 per cent. Italian debt has been volatile in recent days, but rallied for much of September in anticipation that economy minister Giovanni Tria would reel in the government�s spending plans.

kl shawn 11:20 GMT September 28, 2018
euro, big sell?

a few potus tweets will help, i am sure...

HK RF@ 11:18 GMT September 28, 2018
Probably the EU accepted too many payments in Iranian Riyal:)
Reply   
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HK RF@ 11:16 GMT September 28, 2018
Not for daily traders!!!
Reply   


.

kl fs 11:15 GMT September 28, 2018
euro, big sell?
Reply   
if we somehow got 11630, i suppose you guys will be selling like nuts into the weekend...

manila tom 11:07 GMT September 28, 2018
EURUSD 11683

no, actually he will say you do not understand the signal and a signal was issued to sell for 1.08 confirmed

manila tom 11:05 GMT September 28, 2018
New Thread: Is this just a flush out in the EURUSD or start of a new downtrend?

just follow the trend, i agree 1.08 is the next projection zone

HK RF@ 11:02 GMT September 28, 2018
EURUSD 11683

.
He will say;"add and add more".
No stop loss suggested

UK JY 11:01 GMT September 28, 2018
New Thread: Is this just a flush out in the EURUSD or start of a new downtrend?

We now know the top (1,18) and have to look for the bottom. it is either 1.15 (1.15-1.18) or 1.13 (1.13-1.18)

Pasig evan 10:54 GMT September 28, 2018
EURUSD 11683

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

The one who knows everything is very quiet today as usual?

singapore td 10:43 GMT September 28, 2018
New Thread: Is this just a flush out in the EURUSD or start of a new downtrend?

it is a resumption of the down trend for sure! you cannot ignore the trend in rates in US and EU, even if you think otherwise will be extremely expensive to hold long euro, why make it hard if can make it easy, i.e. sell euro and earn free money

another thought, bearish outside weekly candle just formed, pretty significant, if not THE killer blow for euro after consolidating for many weeks, to cancel this formation would be too much to ask today IMO

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:37 GMT September 28, 2018
New Thread: Is this just a flush out in the EURUSD or start of a new downtrend?
Reply   
Please post your thoughts.

manila tom 10:37 GMT September 28, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 28 September 2018

unlikely to see 1.18, so 1.15 is the magnet, extremely safe to sell euro today

london red 10:30 GMT September 28, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 28 September 2018

yes those are correct all lrg 115 barriers in play part of no touch structures some with topside 118 11850 no touch elements.

singapore td 10:28 GMT September 28, 2018
euro easy trade for everybody to 1.08
Reply   
plus earning nice swaps rollover daily

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:21 GMT September 28, 2018
Euro in front of mega multi month move

AT shows 1.1525 is the level that needs to hold. Otherwise, big void opens up.

The Amazing Trader

jkt abel 10:16 GMT September 28, 2018
Euro in front of mega multi month move

yes we are, sell all euro rallies from now on

haifa ac 10:09 GMT September 28, 2018
Euro in front of mega multi month move

wonder if we are starting that move

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:08 GMT September 28, 2018
Will EURUSD Close the Week Above/Below 1.1650?



AT 4 hour chart

The Amazing Trader

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:55 GMT September 28, 2018
Will EURUSD Close the Week Above/Below 1.1650?

A close below 1.1618 = outside week key reversal

UK JY 09:55 GMT September 28, 2018
Will EURUSD Close the Week Above/Below 1.1650?

Remember this is month and quarter end so watch out for sudden move around fixing times.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:32 GMT September 28, 2018
Will EURUSD Close the Week Above/Below 1.1650?

This turned out to be a good question as HOD has been 1.1651

AT charts show little until 1.1565 after a key support/target at 1.1609 was broken. This suggests an absence of obvious stops to go after other than the LOD.

The Amazing Trader

Belgrade Knez 09:29 GMT September 28, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 28 September 2018

Singapore SC 09:17 GMT 09/28/2018

these are the option expiry today that I can find, hopefully london red can confirm it:

1.1710/20 0.806 bn
1.1700 1.57 bn
1.1660/70 1.06 bn
1.1650 1.42 bn
1.1640 0.319 bn
1.1630 4.30 bn
1.1600 0.496 bn
1.1540/50 0.467 bn
1.1520 0.104 bn
1.1500 1.82 bn
1.1300 barrier

Singapore SC 09:17 GMT September 28, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 28 September 2018

Red if you are around. Are there options at 1.16?

GVI Trader john 09:12 GMT September 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: E.Z. Flash Core HICP Misses In September 2018

Suspicious EURUSD weakness into the data when a stronger HICP estimate had been expected after stronger German CPI yesterday.

GVI Forex Blog 09:09 GMT September 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: E.Z. Flash Core HICP Misses In September 2018
Reply   
EZ flash September 2018 core HICP (CPI) misses estimates. Final data usually sees minor changes.

BREAKING NEWS: E.Z. Flash Core HICP Misses In September 2018

GVI Trader john 09:01 GMT September 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Core HICP misses

GVI Trader john 09:01 GMT September 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

Eurozone flash HICP (CPI) September 2018

ALERT
Headline
yy: +2.10 vs. +2.10% exp. vs. +2.00% prev.
CORE
yy: +0.90% vs. +1.10% exp. vs. +1.00% prev.

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GVI Trader john 08:50 GMT September 28, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 28 September 2018

Latest flash EZ HICP estimates 2.10% and 1.10%.

GVI Forex Blog 08:36 GMT September 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.K. 2Q18 GDP Revised Down Slightly
Reply   
U.K. 2Q18 GDP yy revised down slightly.

BREAKING NEWS: U.K. 2Q18 GDP Revised Down Slightly

GVI Trader john 08:30 GMT September 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

UK GDP-- 2Q18

-- NEWS ALERT --
QQ 0.40% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.40% prev.
YY +1.20% vs. +1.30% exp. vs. +1.30% prev.


RELEASE: U.K. GDP

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GVI Trader john 08:20 GMT September 28, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 28 September 2018


For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!

GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:


POSITIVE

Spot EURUSD: 1.1627
Pivot Point: 1.1689

This Week: 1.1642-1.1815
Fri: 1.1613-1.1651
Thu: 1.1642-1.1757
Wed: 1.1726-1.1798
Tue: 1.1731-1.1793


20-day avg: 1.1661
50-day avg: 1.1614
100-day avg: 1.1659
200-day avg: 1.1947

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Fed 25bp hike odds for Dec 19 (second 25bp hike): 72% (74%).

10-yr Bonds
US: 3.048% -2.2bp
DE: 0.496% -3.2
GB: 1.577% -1.5
JP: 0.126% -0.3

DAX: -110
Implied Open
DJ: +7
SP: -0.2

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GVI Forex Blog 08:07 GMT September 28, 2018
Equities Lower 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Mixed & EUR Down
Reply   

Equities Lower 10-yr Yields Mixed. FX: USD Mixed & EUR Down

GVI Forex Blog 08:02 GMT September 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS: German Unemployment Data Beat Forecasts For September 2018
Reply   
German September 2018 Jobless data better expected. (lower is better). Unemployment rate steady.

BREAKING NEWS: German Unemployment Data Beat Forecasts For September 2018

GVI Trader john 07:57 GMT September 28, 2018
BREAKING NEWS:

German Unemployment September 2018

NEWS ALERT
Rate: 5.10% vs. 5.20% exp. vs. 5.20% prev.
Change: -23K vs. -9K exp. vs. -8K (r ) prev.

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GVI Forex Blog 07:44 GMT September 28, 2018
Friday Trading Checklist For 28 September 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Fri 28 Sep 2018
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 07:55 DE- Jobless
AA 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 09:00 EZ- flash HICP
A 12:30 US- PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 1 Oct 2018
All Day- Final Mfg PMIs
A 01:30 AU- CPI
Tue 2 Oct 2018
A 14:00 AU- RBA Decision
Wed 3 Oct 2018
All Day- Final SVC PMIs
b>A 12:15 US- ADP Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
Thu 4 Oct 2018
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US= Factory Orders
Fri 5 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 CA/US- Employment
A 12:30 CA/US- Trade

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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Friday Trading Checklist For 28 September 2018

HK RF@ 07:26 GMT September 28, 2018
Weekly Euro chart shows that creating a bearish outside week, is very easy.
Reply   
.
Done!!!
So not looking a good idea to spend your time long-Euro for a weekend:(

jkt abel 07:20 GMT September 28, 2018
Will EURUSD Close the Week Above/Below 1.1650?

looks like definitely below 1.1650 under current situation, to ask otherwise, while not impossible, would be a surprise

HK RF@ 05:05 GMT September 28, 2018
Will EURUSD Close the Week Above/Below 1.1650?

'
Weekly Euro chart shows that creating a bearish outside week, is very easy. So probably the longs will try to reduce exposure before Mkt close, and this may weigh on the prices.
Inter-political situation in the EU is not price supportive.
The weekly H&S formation, is a threat for longer time traders.
Today is Friday and large moves are possible.
A close at 1.1600+- 10pips. seems a good guess.