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Forex Forum Archive for 01/03/2019

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Mtl JP 23:48 GMT January 3, 2019
Friday Trading Strategy For 4 November 2018

CB 21:51 essatly... what is the trade call ? tia

dc CB 21:51 GMT January 3, 2019
Friday Trading Strategy For 4 November 2018

truth or dare

Then she announced to herself, I think I skipped a couple pages. Im not sure, on a hot mic.

Confused Pelosi botches Speaker speech: I think I skipped a couple of pages. Im not sure.

GVI Trader john 21:32 GMT January 3, 2019
Friday Trading Strategy For 4 November 2018

Late Thursday
10s 2.552%
DJ -660
WTI $47.02

GVI Trader john 21:29 GMT January 3, 2019
Friday Trading Strategy For 4 November 2018

For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:
NEUTRAL
Spot EURUSD: 1.1396
Pivot Point: 1.1372

This Week: 1.1310-1.1547
Thu: 1.1310-1.1411
Wed: 1.1326-1.1497
Tue: 1.1425-1.1547
Mon: 1.1421-1.1466

Fri: 1.1422-1.1473

20-day avg: 1.1385
50-day avg: 1.1371
100-day avg: 1.1479
200-day avg: 1.1650

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


>>Odds 25bp funds hike on Jan 30, 2019 = 6% (6%).

GVI Forex Blog 21:11 GMT January 3, 2019
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 3 January 2019
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 3 January 2019

london red 21:02 GMT January 3, 2019
Thursday Trading Outlook 3 January 2019

if a slow down has taken hold, the mid december data point should to be fair pick this up. youll be looking at around 100k if thats the case. if not dec then certainly jan.

GVI Jay 20:18 GMT January 3, 2019
Thursday Trading Outlook 3 January 2019

Bonds say US jobs may be a lagging indicator.

GVI Trader john 20:00 GMT January 3, 2019
What Can Powell Say Tomorrow to Support Stocks?
Reply   
Today Powell should be working on his message for tomorrow. What would YOU say? He has to be careful not to disappoint again...

GVI Trader john 19:42 GMT January 3, 2019
Thursday Trading Outlook 3 January 2019

DJ -505
10s 2.571%

Waiting for Powell and jobs tomorrow

GVI Forex Blog 17:35 GMT January 3, 2019
Friday Trading Strategy For 4 November 2018
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Fri 4 Jan 2019
A All Day Final Service PMIs
A 08:55 DE- Jobless
AA 08:55 EZ- Flash HICP
AA 13:30 US/CA- Employment
AA 15:15 US- Powell, Bernanke & Yellen panel
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude


GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 7 Jan 2019
A 08:55 DE- Retail Sales
AA 13:30 US- ISM Service PMI
Tue 8 Jan 2019
A 13:30 US- Trade
Wed 9 Jan 2019
AA 15:00 CA- Bank Of Canada Decision
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 15:00 US- Fed Minutes
Thu 10 Jan 2019
AA 09:30 GB- GDP
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 11 Jan 2019
A 09:30 GB- Trade/Output
AA 13:30 US- CPI


Friday Trading Strategy For 4 November 2018

london red 17:33 GMT January 3, 2019
Thursday Trading Outlook 3 January 2019

softening economy means no hikes/lower rates so lower yields and lower earnings so lower stocks. adp looked ok so this theory can be blown out of water tomo.

london red 17:31 GMT January 3, 2019
Thursday Trading Outlook 3 January 2019

twas partially filled yesterday...maybe you need a euro safe haven bid(?) to go again

Mtl JP 17:30 GMT January 3, 2019
Thursday Trading Outlook 3 January 2019

Currently what is NOT computing is that along with yield down to 2.5% stocks are also down. This "in concert" is unusual.

Mtl JP 17:19 GMT January 3, 2019
Thursday Trading Outlook 3 January 2019



I am wanting to be looking at the DLR as having seen its high in 2018 and looking n going down in 2019 BUT
the GAP bothers me.

Needs to poof first .

dc CB 17:13 GMT January 3, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

And the New Congress Opens for Bidnes.
First thing they do:
WYDEN RE-INTRODUCES BILL REQUIRING TRUMP TO RELEASE TAX RETURNS

GVI Trader john 17:11 GMT January 3, 2019
Thursday Trading Outlook 3 January 2019

I view this decline in the 10-yr as very bearish for USD.

Mtl JP 16:52 GMT January 3, 2019
Thursday Trading Outlook 3 January 2019

john 15:42 how do you view 10's going from 3.22% to 2.50 and how jerome's (in)action fits into your future calculations about his speed of policies to deflate his balloon ?

Mtl JP 16:37 GMT January 3, 2019
Thursday Trading Outlook 3 January 2019

john 12:40 re "hoping to hear some opinions"
-
here is one better than opinion:
at 11:30-ish DJIA speaketh: -574.t or -2.46%

Mtl JP 16:23 GMT January 3, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

As in any negotiation, he who opens mouth first: LOSES
jerome can NOT blink tomorrow else he LOSES

"a little bit of volatility, speaking in the abstract, doesn't probably leave mark on economy" - jerome just 2 weeks ago (ref link in my 20:08 GMT January 1, 2019)

NY JM 16:16 GMT January 3, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

Fed will pause. See if Powell gives a signal tomorrow.

NY JM 16:16 GMT January 3, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

Fed will pause. See of Powell gives a signal tomorrow.

Livingston nh 16:05 GMT January 3, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

The mistake would be to pause before yields go above CPI - the economy is still growing (Q4 ISM avg was 57, lowest of the year) -- we need to move out of the Money Swamp

User 16:02 GMT January 3, 2019 Reply   

'Amazing Trader Review'

GVI Trader john 15:42 GMT January 3, 2019
Thursday Trading Outlook 3 January 2019

10s 2.583%
DJ -635

london red 15:32 GMT January 3, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

whatever his thought process or how he got there it seems the trumpster is right, the fed has made a mistake! when will the first cut get priced in...

HK [email protected] 15:28 GMT January 3, 2019
PC is still alive and kicking; Nancy dear about the Wall proposal.
Reply   
.
"That sends the wrong message about who we are as a country."

Means; It is important to look good in the eyes of the world.

Countries who think that way will not exist within 50 years e.g. Belgium.

GVI Trader john 15:17 GMT January 3, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

Weak data. See blue line below. This should be noticed at the Fed.

GVI Forex Blog 15:14 GMT January 3, 2019
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Weak in December 2018
Reply   
December 2018 U.S. ISM Mfg PMI much weaker. ISM report much more important. U.S. Manufacturing PMI's Chart><br>

<p>
		<a href=BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Weak in December 2018

GVI Trader john 15:02 GMT January 3, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI December 2018

U.S. Data Charts




News ALERT

54.1 vs. 57.5 exp. vs. 59.3 prev.
RELEASE: ISM Manufacturing PMI


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trader john 15:02 GMT January 3, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI December 2018

U.S. Data Charts




News ALERT

54.1 vs. 57.5 exp. vs. 59.3 prev.
RELEASE: ISM Manufacturing PMI


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Livingston nh 14:44 GMT January 3, 2019
So far so good.

Remember all the CASH the AAPL folks have (see the expansion of new offices around the US) -- All the mope analysts are down on AAPL after "surprise" -- don't be surprised if AAPL deploys cash at the stock price here

Big M&A inspired moves in Pharma

HK [email protected] 14:43 GMT January 3, 2019
CHART
Reply   


Buy EURUSD
Entry: now Target: 1.1414 Stop: Your choice

.
Target as a measurement movement.

Livingston nh 14:24 GMT January 3, 2019
So far so good.

The ISM stats and NFP will be critical contributions to direction of STOX -- still strong growth will boost GDP prediction and get the bond market off the neck of the Stock Market // yields will push the USD around
____
Weak stats will confirm the dark winter gloom

HK [email protected] 13:57 GMT January 3, 2019
So far so good.
Reply   
.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
HK [email protected] 08:28 GMT 01/03/2019
.
..........

I suspect that this morning storm, may have save the Dow tonight possible crash.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
So likely Stox will be more relaxed.
Hang Seng today a minute decline. And so Shanghai.

HK [email protected] 13:51 GMT January 3, 2019
AUD/USD, 2016,2017,2018, first 3 weeks of the year were in price rising
Reply   
.
71.5 within 3 weeks is Tech. possible or up to 72.5.
China-US trade negotiations a major factor, so even success rumors alone can send this pair much higher.

GVI Trader john 13:41 GMT January 3, 2019
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Rise

Reportedly some government contractors were laying off employees before the government shutdown.

GVI Forex Blog 13:39 GMT January 3, 2019
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Rise
Reply   
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims rise.

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Chart
<Click on chart for over seventeen-year history

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Rise

GVI Trader john 13:31 GMT January 3, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

US Weekly Jobless Claims



ALERT

231K vs. 220K exp vs. 216K (r. 221K ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trader john 13:28 GMT January 3, 2019
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ADP Private Payrolls Beat Estimates In December 2018

ADP data (see below) recently have tended to beat the "actual" data recently.

GVI Forex Blog 13:26 GMT January 3, 2019
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ADP Private Payrolls Beat Estimates In December 2018
Reply   
December 2018 ADP data beat estimates. Previous data revised lower.


BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ADP Private Payrolls Beat Estimates In December 2018

GVI Trader john 13:18 GMT January 3, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. ADP Private Employment December 2018

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT

+271k vs. +175K exp. vs. +179K (r +157k) prev.


RELEASE: ADP National Employment Report



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI 12:55 GMT January 3, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

Fed's Kaplan (dove, non-voter): Favors taking no action the first few quarters in 2019; personal forecasts for GDP have come down a bit - financial press

- Markets reacting to global growth decelerating; US unlikely to be immune to China growth slowdown

- Fed should be patient and take stock of recent developments
- Financial conditions have tightened

- What the Fed does in 2019 will be more significant than what it did in 2018- The question of a rate cut have not

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Mtl JP 12:45 GMT January 3, 2019
Omen?!



nh to think that SEARS had a catalogue ...
all it had to do was to computerize it
and there might not have been an AMZN
-
pic re AAPL

GVI Trader john 12:42 GMT January 3, 2019
Thursday Trading Outlook 3 January 2019

Thanks to NH for his thoughtful post below.

GVI Trader john 12:40 GMT January 3, 2019
Thursday Trading Outlook 3 January 2019

Im not sure how equity trading will evolve today. I am hoping to hear some opinions.

Mtl JP 12:35 GMT January 3, 2019
Thursday Trading Outlook 3 January 2019

john your "?" is confusing
what is not clear to you ?

GVI Trader john 12:32 GMT January 3, 2019
Thursday Trading Outlook 3 January 2019

Risk-Off?
DJ -321
10s 2.643%
WTI $46.56

Livingston nh 12:03 GMT January 3, 2019
Omen?!

AAPL all over the media - SEARS liquidation is more economic problem than AAPL, trying to sell sizzle -- it has a commodity product in a saturated market (think Princess Phone) with a high price -- it's not China and it's not evidence of a "bigger" problem // USD/JPY higher as Q1 proceeds

HK [email protected] 11:28 GMT January 3, 2019
Trader Alert! Beware of New Year Whipsaws

.
This was a good enough tip(USD/JPY) for those who wanted to take a risk.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Trader Alert! Beware Of New Year Whipsaws

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:24 GMT January 2, 2019
Amazing Trader Says...: Reply
USDJPY key support is at 108.10 (suggests 108 as well) so damage is not fatal until/unless this area is taken out. By fatal I mean there is a void below this area until 106.60-88.

USDJPY currently hostage to the risk mood and note the tendency for start of the year false starts so expect caution in the 108.00-50 area if seen.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:20 GMT January 3, 2019
Trader Alert! Beware of New Year Whipsaws
Reply   
Don;t say I didn't warn against new year whipsaws but did not expect a flash crash in the JPY as occurred last night. In any case, the whipsaw risk remains until the market gets back to full liquidity.


I wrote this trading tip several years ago and it is as valid today as when I first posted it. It is a warning to be wary of false starts at the start of the year until the market gets back to full liquidity. However, there has been a change at the way I look at it as I explain below.

Trader Alert! Beware Of New Year Whipsaws

Mtl JP 10:04 GMT January 3, 2019
Omen?!



blue moon math
-
in round numbers:
108.57 - 104.72 = 4 handles
7 - 4 = 3
3 on base of 4 = 75%
definite blue math omen for wallet
good luck trading in 2019

GVI Forex Blog 09:39 GMT January 3, 2019
BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Construction PMI Matches Estimates in December 2018
Reply   
U.K. December 2018 Construction PMI hits estimates. This is more of a domestic measure.

U.K. Construction PMI p> BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Construction PMI Matches Estimates in December 2018

GVI Trader john 09:31 GMT January 3, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

Construction PMI December 2018




-- NEWS ALERT --

52.8 vs. 52.8 exp. vs. 53.4 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer


GVI Trader john 09:18 GMT January 3, 2019
Thursday Trading Outlook 3 January 2019

For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:
NEUTRAL
Spot EURUSD: 1.1441
Pivot Point: 1.1388

This Week: 1.1426-1.1547
Thu: 1.1309-1.1384
Wed: 1.1326-1.1497
Tue: 1.1425-1.1547
Mon: 1.1421-1.1466

Fri: 1.1422-1.1473

20-day avg: 1.1385
50-day avg: 1.1371
100-day avg: 1.1479
200-day avg: 1.1654

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Odds 25bp funds hike on Jan 30, 2019 = 50% (50%).

10-yr Bonds
US: 2.633% -4.1bp
DE: 0.174% +0.8
GB: 1.198% -2.3
JP: -0.001% -0.0

DAX: -93
Implied Open
DJ: -308
SP: -32.8



See the Amazing Trader Live!

haifa ac 09:07 GMT January 3, 2019
Omen?!

7 handles in the JPY in 2 hours is as rare as a a blue moon.

GVI Forex Blog 08:56 GMT January 3, 2019
Thursday Trading Outlook 3 January 2019
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Thu 3 Jan 2019
A 13:15 US- ADP Jobs
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 15:00 US- ISM PMI
Fri 4 Jan 2019
A All Day Final Service PMIs
A 08:55 DE- Jobless
AA 08:55 EZ- Flash HICP
AA 13:30 US- Employment
AA 15:15 US- Powell, Bernanke & Yellen panel
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude


Thursday Trading Outlook 3 January 2019

HK [email protected] 08:28 GMT January 3, 2019
Omen?!

.
One should rather on Tech. than on Omen.

I suspect that this morning storm, may have save the Dow tonight possible crash.
If so, USD/JPY doesn't have much Res. to climb up back to 108.70

haifa ac 07:03 GMT January 3, 2019
Omen?!
Reply   
We are starting 2019 with extreme volatility. Is this an omen for things to come rest of the year?!

Livingston nh 04:07 GMT January 3, 2019
Takin' the Bait
Reply   
The Dems led by Pelosi are drawing a line in the sand as the Tide washes in -- the shutdown of gov't in US hits her party's constituents // the idea of a WALL, like the idea of Deficit Budget, is a principle not a problem -- Ellis Island was a Wall

True Believers in politics (see Tea Party Republicans) or markets are doomed -- the Third Year is when the Money gets made

Livingston nh 03:41 GMT January 3, 2019
Thursday Trading Strategy 3 January 2019

BoJ has rendered Japan a financial basket case - as US rates rise the Japanese economy will fail big time - the demographics (7 yrs behind US) in Japan are about to take its toll

Livingston nh 03:34 GMT January 3, 2019
News?

Apple is a commodity purveyor - BUT it has a lot of MONEY and some technology interests // more P&G than IBM - it has an eco-system of True Believers // think 5G

HK [email protected] 02:26 GMT January 3, 2019
AUD/USD Weekly (CHART)
Reply   


.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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