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Forex Forum Archive for 01/31/2019

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Sydney ACC 23:48 GMT January 31, 2019
The national property market is in free fall
Reply   
Warnings about the Australian residential property market published in the SMH have become almost a daily occurrence this week.

Today Melbourne's property prices fell by 1.7% in January while those in Sydney fell 1.4%. Prices in every other capital city fell bar Canberra where they rose.

Yesterday there was news a of 61 apartments in Epping was on the market after the Chinese lender foreclosed on the developer.

Then on Tuesday news that apartments purchased in 2016 and 2017 at the height of the property boom were likely to be defaulted by the purchaser.

Given the number of projects nearing completion I can't see where the workers are going to find a job when the work is done.

Combined with the talk of economic slowdowns overseas May's election may be the same as 1974 - the election you want to lose.

Link - SMH

dc CB 22:39 GMT January 31, 2019
MMT the new new Thing eCON-wise



here

dc CB 22:37 GMT January 31, 2019
MMT the new new Thing eCON-wise

as seen on ZH

GVI 21:58 GMT January 31, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

Reportedly UK Cabinet ministers are increasingly expecting a Brexit delay - Telegraph (update)

- Home Secretary Javid said to tell colleagues that Brexit is likely to be delayed

- Source TradeTheNews.com

dc CB 21:27 GMT January 31, 2019
MMT the new new Thing eCON-wise

MMT?????? :)))))))))))))))

Incidentally, for those wondering, one gift package of Chuying Agro-Pastoral's ham costs 8,999 yuan or about $1,300. Assuming it takes one pig to make one such package, the company will have to remit just over 255,000 pigs to its creditors in lieu of the upcoming bond maturity, assuming of course that the credit hedge funds who are invested in the pig farmer have space in their office of a few hundred thousand pigs.

Company That Paid Debt In Ham Is Running Out Of Pigs

GVI Trader john 20:37 GMT January 31, 2019
Friday AT Trading Checklist

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium


Fri 1 Fed 2019
A all day Flash PMIs
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
AA 08:30 US- Employment


GVI Trader john 20:32 GMT January 31, 2019
Friday AT Trading Checklist
Reply   
For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:
POSITIVE
Spot EURUSD: 1.1443
Pivot Point: 1.1465

This Week: 1.1390-1.1514
Thu: 1.1435-1.1514
Wed: 1.1503-1.1407
Tue: 1.1412-1.1450
Mon: 1.1390-1.1446

20-day avg: 1.1422
50-day avg: 1.1391
100-day avg: 1.1446
200-day avg: 1.1563

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Odds 25bp funds rate change (+/-) on Mar 20, 2019 = 0% (0%).


See the Amazing Trader Live!

GVI Forex Blog 20:14 GMT January 31, 2019
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 31 January 2019
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 31 January 2019

dc CB 19:38 GMT January 31, 2019
MMT the new new Thing eCON-wise

Bernie Sanders Proposes 77% Estate Tax For Billionaires

eCON, uCON, we all CON.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:30 GMT January 31, 2019
Amazing Trader Says...How to trade month end flows
Reply   


As I explained on the Amazing Trader forum, be on alert for erratic month end flows around the 4 PM London fixing. This occurred today with GBPUSD rising sharply on the back of a EURGBP sell order.

As I have discussed on more than one occasion, these type of fixing flows offer an opportunity to take the other side as, with this case, the bids dried up once the fixing flows were over (more so in GBPUSD, with a delay in the offers in in EURGBP).

Note the confirmation for a sell in the above Amazing Trader chart, which worked out like a textbook once GBPUSD lost its bid.

I realize this is posted after the fact but it is a pattern we see often on the Amazing Trader and you can see the potential results.

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dc CB 19:21 GMT January 31, 2019
MMT the new new Thing eCON-wise
Reply   


what if the UniParty embraces this in 2020.
Long read - This cud be the replacement Theory the generation of Free Stuff for All politicians and those who will vote them into office.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
MMT’ers believe that government’s red ink is someone else’s black ink. Sure, the government owes dollars, but they have a monopoly of creating those dollars, and not only that, the creation of more and more dollars is essential to the functioning of the economy.


Keynes for the 2020's
Professor Stephanie Kelton from Stony Brook University
https://stephaniekelton.com/

Trader: "Modern Monetary Theory Is Coming... Ignoring It Would Be Foolish

Kl Shawn 17:12 GMT January 31, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

Stock markets are all rosy happy though, the disconnect of paper versus reality?

london red 16:20 GMT January 31, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

italy already in technical recession. maybe germany wont quite get there but some others will. seems like CB's entering race to bottom at least talkwise

GVI Forex 16:13 GMT January 31, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

11:10 (EU) ECB's Weidmann (Germany): process of ECB policy normalization is likely to take several years
- Growth risks for Germany are to the downside with high uncertainty; Germany economy will grow below potential in 2019
- Sees no sudden slump or no long recession in Germany
- 2019 Eurozone inflation may be noticeably lower than ECB's Dec estimates due to oil prices
- Dec forecasts for 2020 and 2021 growth still realistic
- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Trader john 15:30 GMT January 31, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

Weekly API Crude Data




ALERT
-173 mln vs: -200 mln expected

TTN: Live News Special Offer


GVI Forex Blog 15:10 GMT January 31, 2019
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. New Homes Sales Beat Street Inn November 2018
Reply   
November 2018 New Homes Sales much stronger than expected.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. New Homes Sales Beat Street Inn November 2018

GVI Trader john 15:03 GMT January 31, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

NHS better than forecast.

GVI Trader john 15:02 GMT January 31, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. New Home Sales November, 2018



ALERT
v657K vs. 569K exp. vs. 544K (r 582k) prev.

HK [email protected] 14:47 GMT January 31, 2019
Chicago PMI :((((
Reply   
.

GVI Trader john 14:46 GMT January 31, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

Chicago PMI January 2019



NEWS ALERT
56.7 vs. 62.0 exp. vs. 65.4 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trader john 14:41 GMT January 31, 2019
Thursday AT Trading Checklist

Chicago PMI subscribers get data early

GVI 14:15 GMT January 31, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

Reportedly members of UK Parliament's Brexit Committee to travel to Brussels to discuss Brexit deal with EU negotiators - press - Source TradeTheNews.com

Livingston nh 14:12 GMT January 31, 2019
Thursday AT Trading Checklist

5, 7 and 10 yr yields all under last year's levels - 3 mo T-bill and 10 yr (Mishkin Estrella) are w/i 20 pips and dropping // oil and gold rising // Fed better hope it doesn't have to give these folks any bad news in a couple of months



GVI Forex Blog 13:51 GMT January 31, 2019
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Spike Higher On Likely Distortions
Reply   
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims spike higher.

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Chart
<Click on chart for over seventeen-year history

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Spike Higher On Likely Distortions

NY JM 13:39 GMT January 31, 2019
Init Job. Claim BAAAD.

Likely distorted by the shutdown

GVI Trader john 13:37 GMT January 31, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

US Weekly Jobless Claims



ALERT

253K vs. 216K exp vs. 199K (r. 200K ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


GVI Trader john 13:36 GMT January 31, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

Canada: GDP November 2018





ALERT
m/m -0.10% vs. -0.10% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

HK [email protected] 13:31 GMT January 31, 2019
Init Job. Claim BAAAD.
Reply   
.

GVI Trader john 12:55 GMT January 31, 2019
Thursday AT Trading Checklist

Use the yield on the U.S. 2-yr note (2.489%) as the best barometer you can find of market sentiment about upcoming Fed policy. Top of the Fed Funds target range is now 2.50%, so the big money is pricing a steady Fed policy for now (next 6 mos or so). This is subject to changes in market sentiment. Take note of these changes Expect the markets to scrutinize U.S. employment tomorrow with Fed policy now data dependent.

GVI Trader john 12:47 GMT January 31, 2019
Thursday AT Trading Checklist

U.S. weekly Jobless data on the open today could be inflated by seasonal adjustment issues. This is a volatile high frequency series and therefore subject to a lot of noise. the Chicago PMI (14:45GMT) often causes temporary volatility, so it should be watched.Personal Income data releases at 15:00 GMT have been postponed due to the government shutdown.

Mtl JP 12:46 GMT January 31, 2019
BREXIT

BBRG -
EU Ready to Push U.K. Near Point of No-Return on Brexit, Diplomats Say

No plans to offer May anything on deal over next few weeks Ireland digs in over need for backstop to protect peace

Mtl JP 12:23 GMT January 31, 2019
The Fed Makes a Major Monetary Policy Turn

Bottom Line
Powell - scared - caved to financial markets
no matter his couching use of flowery words


Mtl JP 12:00 GMT January 31, 2019
Thursday AT Trading Checklist

canadian GDP release will be for Nov -
and include pot sales fwiw

Mtl JP 11:57 GMT January 31, 2019
Thursday AT Trading Checklist

Global stoks uP some
eu economy slowing
crude about steady
US stocks on slight uPtick
paper Gold flying

Paris 11:37 GMT January 31, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:



Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.14830 Target: 1.15330 Stop: 1.1450

Good signals with my indicator

GVI Trader john 11:00 GMT January 31, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

EARLIER:

German Unemployment January 2019




NEWS ALERT
Rate: 5.00% vs. 5.00% exp. vs. 5.00% prev.
Change: -2K vs. n/a exp. vs. -14K (r -12) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer



German January 2018 Jobless data rises. (lower is better). Unemployment rate steady.


GVI Jay 10:53 GMT January 31, 2019
Thursday AT Trading Checklist

Reminder, it is month end, which often sees some erratic price action as end if month flows dominate.

GVI Forex Blog 10:46 GMT January 31, 2019
BREAKING NEWS: Eurozone 4Q18 GDP Weak
Reply   
Eurozone Advance 4Q18 Advance GDP y/y 1.20% yr/yr. Italian GDP -0.20% q/q (+0.10% y/y),

Eurozone GDP Chart

BREAKING NEWS: Eurozone 4Q18 GDP Weak

GVI Trader john 10:29 GMT January 31, 2019
Thursday AT Trading Checklist

For AT Trading

See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:
POSITIVE
Spot EURUSD: 1.1480
Pivot Point: 1.1463

This Week: 1.1390-1.1514
Thu: 1.1477-1.1514
Wed: 1.1503-1.1407
Tue: 1.1412-1.1450
Mon: 1.1390-1.1446

Fri: 1.1289-1.1351

20-day avg: 1.1419
50-day avg: 1.1391
100-day avg: 1.1448
200-day avg: 1.1566

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Odds 25bp funds rate change (+/-) on Mar 20, 2019 = 0% (0%).


See the Amazing Trader Live!

DAX: +5
Implied Open
DJ: -39
SP: +2.9

GVI Trader john 10:19 GMT January 31, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:

EZ 4Q18 Advance GDP



NEWS ALERT

mo/mo 0.20% vs. 0.20% exp. vs. 0.20% prev.
yr/yr 1.20% vs. 1.20% exp. vs. 1.60% prev.





TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trader john 09:58 GMT January 31, 2019
Thursday AT Trading Checklist
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium



Thu 31 Jan 2019
A 07:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 08:55 DE- Employment
A 10:00 EZ- GDP
A 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 15:00 US- Personal Income/PCE
Fri 1 Fed 2019
A all day Flash PMIs
AA 08:30 US- Employment
A 10:00 EZ- GDP


haifa ac 07:50 GMT January 31, 2019
Wednesday Trading Checklist 29 January 2019

nd in Sydney at 2:00pm it is 36.4 degrees celsius. Top predicted 40 degrees which is 104 fahrenheit."

Yeah, well......

"A study in British medical journal The Lancet reached the following conclusion:

Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries. "

https://pjmedia.com/trending/record-cold-forces-rethink-on-global-warming/

kl shawn 06:03 GMT January 31, 2019
Monday Trading Strategy 28 January 2019

JP, thanks mate
it seems to me that they have been buying stocks and similarly selling usd based on the idea of Fed's dovish language recently...

Mtl JP 04:13 GMT January 31, 2019
Monday Trading Strategy 28 January 2019

no plan re. oil other than the occasional correlation to Cad
and stocks --- I question how they can go higher as the reason one buys is to sell higher... on what catalyst can they build.

Sydney ACC 03:00 GMT January 31, 2019
Wednesday Trading Checklist 29 January 2019

And in Sydney at 2:00pm it is 36.4 degrees celsius. Top predicted 40 degrees which is 104 fahrenheit.

Reports of massive power cuts in the Eastern Suburbs as electricity companies can't meet demand.

Traffic lights were blacked out in many parts of the eastern suburbs, including Double Bay, Sydney's most expensive suburb.

kl shawn 02:50 GMT January 31, 2019
Monday Trading Strategy 28 January 2019

cheers JP, do you have particular plan re. oil and stocks?

Mtl JP 02:36 GMT January 31, 2019
Monday Trading Strategy 28 January 2019

shawn 01:46 a tip of hat curtsey and kudos

kl shawn 02:26 GMT January 31, 2019
Wednesday Trading Checklist 29 January 2019

dc CB, you buy stocks given soft Fed?

dc CB 02:07 GMT January 31, 2019
Wednesday Trading Checklist 29 January 2019

3.2 degrees

dc CB 02:06 GMT January 31, 2019
Wednesday Trading Checklist 29 January 2019

at 11 in the morn today, as I cleared the last fallen snow
it was 27 degrees F
now at 9 in the evening
it is 3.4 degrees F

Natty Gas shortage....WHO CUDA KNOWN Who Who...Bring to the Dock just One Person WHO CUDA KNOWN

Hearings, Wall Street EXEC, responding to Eliz(Pocahantas)Warren. 2009 CSPAN Archives

kl shawn 01:53 GMT January 31, 2019
Correction: USD/JPY

it will be defended for sure since PPT will make sure stox keep bullish tone

kl shawn 01:46 GMT January 31, 2019
Monday Trading Strategy 28 January 2019

best trade :) cheers

kl shawn 04:13 GMT January 28, 2019
Monday Trading Strategy 28 January 2019: Reply
see you at 13130 usdcad

Syd 01:35 GMT January 31, 2019
Wednesday Trading Checklist 29 January 2019

PG&E, facing massive wildfire liability, seeks bankruptcy protection
California’s largest power company, facing up to $30 billion in potential liability over its role in recent California wildfires, said early Monday it intends to file for bankruptcy. Pacific Gas and Electric said it plans to file petitions to reorganize under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code on or about January 29, 2019.

The company was acting under a new state law requiring it to tell employees at least 15 days before a change of control in the company – including a bankruptcy filing. CBSNews

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEqaeNWkSDg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yw6cyc4PBcs

What are the odds that a Rothschild stooge is sitting at the helm of PG&E, and that same company was reported to have its own transmission towers triggering the wildfire?

Livingston nh 00:53 GMT January 31, 2019
Wednesday Trading Checklist 29 January 2019

cb - could try a deus ex machina defense BUT in today's world go after the public utilities commission and failure to supervise
__
PG&E is going to sink California - rates, taxes/ up but service down -- do gooder global warmer whiners won't get money to save Planet -- maybe we could trade California to Mexico for a wall

dc CB 00:45 GMT January 31, 2019
Wednesday Trading Checklist 29 January 2019

Livingston nh 23:02 GMT 01/30/2019
CB - re:FAANG and gold

just sayin' in a couple of posts. Gold + FOMC(led by the Prof and then Gammy) Week---Wack-O-Rama. Out of the coded worked for near a decade...Top-O-the Hour Algos.

PS, posted earlier about the XCel failure to supply Natty Gas to customers. Is that an actionable Failure of a Public Utility suit waiting for a Lawyer? Not like the weather can be a Suprise.

Was the Trading Arm of that Company (where the money gets made by all these Yuge Regionwide Utility Conglomerates.

Pacific Gas & Electric in a cold climate?????

HK [email protected] 00:31 GMT January 31, 2019
Correction: USD/JPY
Reply   
.
Critical level to consider is 108.28.
A break of which, opens the door to retest January low and even lower.
So likely 108.28 level will be protected.

HK [email protected] 00:30 GMT January 31, 2019
UAS/JPY
Reply   
.
Critical level to consider is 109.28.
A break of which, opens the door to retest January low and even lower.
So likely 108.28 level will be protected.

Mtl JP 00:23 GMT January 31, 2019
News Flash

May woos Labour MPs with cash'

The prime minister is planning to "entice" Labour MPs to back her Brexit deal by offering cash to their constituencies, reports the Times. The paper says Theresa May could provide "a cash injection into deprived areas that supported Leave, including former mining communities".

- BBC News

Mtl JP 00:14 GMT January 31, 2019
News Flash

Timber!!!!
5th one.... high attrition rate

Musk says Tesla CFO Deepak Ahuja is leaving the company

stock taking a licking

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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