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Forex Forum Archive for 07/1/2019

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GVI Trader john 21:12 GMT July 1, 2019
Tuesday Trading Checklist

LATE Monday
DJ: +117
SP: +22.6

2-yr 1.791% +0.5bp Spread 10s-2s +24.2 (+26.0bp)
10-yr
US: 2.033% +3.3
DE: -0.354% +0.5
UK: 0.818% +0.5

GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND: NEUTRAL
Spot EURUSD: 1.1286
Pivot Point: 1.1313

Thuis Week 1.1281-1.1372 (91 pips)

mon: 1.1281-1.1372 (91)
fri: 1.1351-1.1394 (43)
thu: 1.1348-1.1382 (34)
wed: 1.1349-1.1390 (41)
tue: 1.1345-1.1413 (68)


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20-day avg: 1.1298
50-day avg: 1.1231
100-day avg: 1.1264
200-day avg: 1.1342

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dc CB 20:46 GMT July 1, 2019
End July 50bp Cut Dead? What about 25bp Cut?

today's auction of 3-Month Treasury bills priced at 2.145%, notably higher than the 2.085% previous week.

GVI Forex Blog 20:20 GMT July 1, 2019
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 1 July 2019
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

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Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 1 July 2019

dc CB 20:19 GMT July 1, 2019
Broken NUZ
Reply   
It's no longer cute, cuddly, funny.

Portlandia
A sketch-comedy series that parodies life in Portland, Oregon.
Creators: Fred Armisen, Carrie Brownstein.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1780441/
____________________________________________________
this Sat in Portland: ps those in the pix are not riot police, they are Antifa.
And they plan to be in Wash DC this week for the celebrations.

Portland protest results in 'multiple assaults,' three arrests:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/jun/30/antifa-fueled-portland-protest-results-multiple-as/

dc CB 19:46 GMT July 1, 2019
BREAKING NEWS

An American 15-year-old has become Wimbledon's newest star after beating her idol Venus Williams in the first round.
In an electrifying match, Cori 'Coco' Gauff, 15, beat the seven-time Grand Slam singles winner, 39, on Court One - less than a week after finishing her exams.
Gauff beat the tennis legend, who had won four of her Grand Slam titles before she was even born, winning 6-4 6-4.

Mtl JP 19:21 GMT July 1, 2019
Cause and Effect

red different factors make european vs N.A. prices uncomparable

london red 19:14 GMT July 1, 2019
Cause and Effect

id take your gas prices any day...u folks should try filling up in europe...

dc CB 18:56 GMT July 1, 2019
Cause and Effect

also missed was:

California is among the states with increases and taxes in the Golden State are going up by 5.6 cents. That now equates to 47.3 cents per gallon, meaning California once again has the highest gasoline pricesin the country.

But, the increase is particularly notable in Illinois given. It's bumping its gas tax by 19 cents to 38 cents a gallon.

12 US States Are Boosting Their Gasoline Tax Today, But Illinois' Is The Biggest

Mtl JP 18:30 GMT July 1, 2019
Cause and Effect



winners and losers
--------------------
Gas prices could rise after fire-stricken refinery closes - wapo 5 days ago

something that got lost on Myra P. Saefong in her a-little-too-late piece that:

Gasoline prices are on the rise — just as drivers gear up for the Fourth of July - MarketWatch

Mtl JP 18:07 GMT July 1, 2019
End July 50bp Cut Dead? What about 25bp Cut?

lest President Trump jump again on the euro 0.8 cent dump
and try to savage the usd in tit-4-tat devaluation

london red 16:59 GMT July 1, 2019
End July 50bp Cut Dead? What about 25bp Cut?

euro downside may pause by 11260-78. a lot of expiring this week from there upwards and big data to come. euro wont see below 112 before adp/nfp. they wont risk it til they see colour of data.

GVI Trader john 16:31 GMT July 1, 2019
End July 50bp Cut Dead? What about 25bp Cut?

DJIA +99
SP+19.4
10s 2.033 +3.3

HK [email protected] 16:08 GMT July 1, 2019
USD/JPY, gold; potential candidates for Bullish Island Reversal.
Reply   
.
Anyone short(yen, gold) on that Island, to be stranded or killed. So watch!

USA ZEUS 15:58 GMT July 1, 2019
USD/CHF

USA ZEUS 04:57 GMT 06/25/2019
Perhaps USD/CHF at .9697 is due for a correction.

Cheers!
_______________________________________________________

Stops set to B/E. Enjoy the ride.
Take gains at your leisure.
_______________________________________________________
Profits taken at .9867 for + 170 pips

Cheers!

Mtl JP 15:46 GMT July 1, 2019
EURUSD

nh 15:36 maybe I should not have posted 13:50 *..*
dlr uP just about everywhere

HK [email protected] 15:40 GMT July 1, 2019
He said
Reply   
.
DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran will enrich uranium above 3.67% fissile purity, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on Monday, if European countries fail to salvage a 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers.

The 3.67% level is that deemed suitable for generating civilian nuclear energy. Above that would mark the first step in a process that could eventually be put to producing the more highly refined material that can be used for a nuclear warhead. Iran has always denied it has any plans to develop an atom bomb.

“Our next step will be enriching uranium beyond the 3.67% allowed under the deal,” Zarif said, according to the state-run Iranian broadcaster IRIB. “The Europeans have failed to fulfill their promises of protecting Iran’s interests under the deal.”

Livingston nh 15:36 GMT July 1, 2019
EURUSD

EUR below 21 ma on 4 hr chart - rising 21dma at 1.1299, MACD rolling over

GVI Trader john 15:21 GMT July 1, 2019
Tuesday Trading Checklist
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 2 July 2019
AA 04:30 AU- RBA Decision
Wed 3 July 2019
Final Service PMIs all day
A 12:15 US- ADP Payrolls
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude
Thu 4 July 2019
00:00 US- Holiday
Fri 5 June 2019
A 12:30 US/CA- Employment


Mtl JP 15:16 GMT July 1, 2019
Monday Trading Agenda

winners and losers
---------------------
France 10 Year Bond (FR10Y-FR:France)
Yield:

-0.0528 % (--0.048)

Mtl JP 14:56 GMT July 1, 2019
Monday Trading Agenda

DJIA down to ~190pts
some early cashing out in pure manifestation of greed

GVI Trader john 14:53 GMT July 1, 2019
End July 50bp Cut Dead? What about 25bp Cut?

Not a lot of major data due Tuesday. The RBA is expected to ease by 25bp to 1.00%. Calendar then picks up again with key data due on Wednesday and Friday.

Livingston nh 14:52 GMT July 1, 2019
End July 50bp Cut Dead? What about 25bp Cut?

ISM comments section illustrates the core problem is TARIFF/TRADE policy -- a RATE CUT will do nothing for the economy - it certainly won't mitigate trade policy effects or stimulate capital investment

The Fed is on the verge of PANIC - see if Clarida tries to rein in the financial market KIDZ -- a cut to accommodate market 'demands' or a Prez tweet will only lead to MORE

GVI Trader john 14:33 GMT July 1, 2019
End July 50bp Cut Dead? What about 25bp Cut?

Lots of Mfg PMIs today. We've seen a lot of sub-50 levels and even the better ones are only just above 50. Plenty of warning signs for the economy bears at the Fed and other central banks...

No reason for the Fed to panic, but a "precautionary" 25bp cut might still be in order.

Mtl JP 14:30 GMT July 1, 2019
BREAKING NEWS



Time to ignite all engines
(but nothing about lightening the fuel/cargo load)

according to Mr Agustín Carstens, General Manager of the BIS, 30 June 2019

Mtl JP 14:23 GMT July 1, 2019
BREAKING NEWS

john 14:06 things economic are
"Slippin' and slidin' Peepin' and hidin' Been told a long time ago." around the globe

nw kw 14:21 GMT July 1, 2019
Monday Trading Agenda

s&p banks doing the lifting with bund. good day for run.

GVI Forex Blog 14:19 GMT July 1, 2019
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ISM Mfg PMI Misses Expectations In June 2019
Reply   
June 2019 U.S. ISM Mfg PMI beats expectations, but is weaker. Markit PMI revisde higher. ISM report much more important. U.S. Manufacturing PMI's Chart><br>



<p>
		<a href=BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ISM Mfg PMI Misses Expectations In June 2019

GVI Trader john 14:11 GMT July 1, 2019
BREAKING NEWS

ISM beats expectations but lower mo/mo.

Mtl JP 14:06 GMT July 1, 2019
Monday Trading Agenda

DJIA uP ~240 already
10-yr 2.021% vs 2.019% earlier

GVI Trader john 14:06 GMT July 1, 2019
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI June 2019

U.S. Data Charts




News ALERT

51.7 vs. 51.2 exp. vs. 52.1 prev.
RELEASE: ISM Manufacturing PMI


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Livingston nh 13:59 GMT July 1, 2019
Monday Trading Agenda

jp - merci

Amman wfakhoury 13:58 GMT July 1, 2019
EURUSD 11335

11335 reached
buy for 11350

Mtl JP 13:50 GMT July 1, 2019
Monday Trading Agenda

nh 22:55 - How does the Fed talk the KIDZ off the ledge and how soon, if necessary, do they start ??
-
Your inquiry has been heard - here is a bit of light while feeding:

Fed’s Barkin Warns of Chill Over Business Investment From Trade Uncertainty - wsj

..."Mr. Barkin said Friday it was too soon to say whether global economic weakness would compel the central bank to cut interest rates at its next meeting, July 30-31. “We’re still in a very sound place,” he said. “I think emotions have gotten far out in front of the data." .../..

et voilà ! ... mushrooms are fed.
99% no 50pts

GVI Trader john 13:45 GMT July 1, 2019
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Markit final Mfg PMI June 2019





ALERT
50.6 vs. 50.1 exp. vs. 50.1 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

HK [email protected] 12:56 GMT July 1, 2019
Iran breaches 2015 nuclear deal's stockpile limit: sources

.
If the Iranians are looking for trouble
They came to the right place:)

GVI Forex 12:13 GMT July 1, 2019
EURUSD

1.1345 = 200 day mva

Amman wfakhoury 11:30 GMT July 1, 2019
EURUSD 11335
Reply   
11335 is consolidation level price will return to it with possibility to rise to 11370 ..Sell add Sell if rise
now 11351


The only one in the world who confirms the next level and every hour movement

Livingston nh 11:29 GMT July 1, 2019
EU

There may be some Buyers' regret by EU for the Brexit extension - the UK may influence the appointments to the organization that it is trying to leave - if the appointments dispute drags on a new UK PM could be in place

Merkel's influence is waning as some in EU and at home question her political judgment -- an early departure for her??

london red 11:25 GMT July 1, 2019
EURUSD

200dma retaken. key on close. a save here reasserts upside test.

Cape May Jb 11:22 GMT July 1, 2019
EURUSD
Reply   
I just stepped away for a few minutes. News?

Amman wfakhoury 11:16 GMT July 1, 2019
EURNZD 16930

1.6930 reached
another 35 pips profit

Livingston nh 11:12 GMT July 1, 2019
EU
Reply   
EU appointments summit fails to agree - leaders go home

Livingston nh 10:36 GMT July 1, 2019
End July 50bp Cut Dead? What about 25bp Cut?

Brexit Redux - agreeing to talk is NOT an AGREEMENT
Is there yet a reason for rate cut?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:34 GMT July 1, 2019
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Reply   

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GVI Trader john 10:30 GMT July 1, 2019
End July 50bp Cut Dead? What about 25bp Cut?

As for a Fed rate cut I still see a -25 bp cut as highly probable, but a 50bp cut is unlikely as long as China and the U.S. are talking. Expect this decision to remain very much data dependent.

GVI Trader john 10:27 GMT July 1, 2019
End July 50bp Cut Dead? What about 25bp Cut?
Reply   
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

I find it difficult to get excited about a possible U.S-China trade deal. To say talks are alive doesn't tell me much. We all know how fragile they can be. I suppose the markets have to react, but I am skeptical. Anyone feel differently? U.S. 10-yr bond reaction has been muted. Let equities and bonds take the lead.

HK [email protected] 10:15 GMT July 1, 2019
GBP/USD
Reply   

Entry: 1.2650 about Target: 1.2820 Stop: yours

.

GVI Trader john 09:30 GMT July 1, 2019
Monday Trading Agenda

Early Monday
DJ: +268
SP: +29.5

2-yr 1.759% +1.8bp Spread 10s-2s +26.0 (+25.3bp)
10-yr
US: 2.019% +1.9
DE: -0.332% -0.6
UK: 0.813% -1.9

GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND: POSITIVE
Spot EURUSD: 1.1324
Pivot Point: 1.1372

Last Week 1.1345-1.1413 (68 pips)

mon: 1.1317-1.1371 (54)
fri: 1.1351-1.1394 (43)
thu: 1.1348-1.1382 (34)
wed: 1.1349-1.1390 (41)
tue: 1.1345-1.1413 (68)


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20-day avg: 1.1296
50-day avg: 1.1231
100-day avg: 1.1264
200-day avg: 1.1345

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GVI Forex Blog 08:37 GMT July 1, 2019
BREAKING NEWS: U.K Manufacturing PMI weaker in June 2019
Reply   
June 2019 U.K. Manufacturing PMI remains below 50.0 expansion/contraction line.
>
U.K. PMI Data Chart

BREAKING NEWS: U.K Manufacturing PMI weaker in June 2019

GVI Trader john 08:33 GMT July 1, 2019
BREAKING NEWS

UK Mfg PMI weak

GVI Trader john 08:32 GMT July 1, 2019
BREAKING NEWS


GB Manufacturing PMI June 2019

U.K. Charts







-- NEWS ALERT --

48.0 vs. 49.5 exp. vs. 49.4 (r ) prev.





TTN: Live News Special Offer

Amman wfakhoury 08:25 GMT July 1, 2019
GBP confirmed signals

Amman wfakhoury 05:35 GMT 07/01/2019

GBPJPY now 13735 -13700 confirmed
Sell add sell if rise
____________________
Our 35 pips profit

The only one in the world who confirms the next level and every hour movement

Amman wfakhoury 08:12 GMT July 1, 2019
EURNZD 16930
Reply   
1.6930 confirmed will be reached
possible to decline to 16895 too
buy add buy if decline

GVI Forex Blog 08:11 GMT July 1, 2019
BREAKING NEWS: EZ Final Mfg PMIs weaker in June 2019
Reply   
EZ June 2019 final Manufacturing PMIs. All revised lower. Italy weaker vs. previous.



BREAKING NEWS: EZ Final Mfg PMIs weaker in June 2019

GVI Trader john 08:03 GMT July 1, 2019
BREAKING NEWS

EZ PMIs revised slightly weaker across the board.

GVI Trader john 08:00 GMT July 1, 2019
BREAKING NEWS

EZ Final Manufacturing PMIs June 2019





ALERT
08:00 EZ
mfg: 47.6 vs. 47.8 exp. vs. 47.8 flash
07:55 Germany
mfg: 45.0 vs. 45.4 exp. vs. 45.4 flash
07:50 France
mfg: 51.9 vs. 52.0 exp. vs. 52.0 flash

07:45 Italy 48.4 vs. 48.7 exp. vs. 49.2



Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trader john 07:48 GMT July 1, 2019
Monday Trading Agenda

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 1 July 2019
Final Mfg PMIs all day
00:00 CA- Holiday
A 08:30 DE- Employment
Tue 2 July 2019
AA 04:30 AU- RBA Decision
Wed 3 July 2019
Final Service PMIs all day
A 12:15 US- ADP Payrolls
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude
Thu 4 July 2019
00:00 US- Holiday
Fri 5 June 2019
A 12:30 US/CA- Employment


GVI Trader john 07:45 GMT July 1, 2019
BREAKING NEWS
Reply   
EZ Final Manufacturing PMIs June 2019





ALERT
08:00 EZ
mfg: vs. 47.8 exp. vs. 47.8 flash
07:55 Germany
mfg: vs. 45.4 exp. vs. 45.4 flash
07:50 France
mfg: vs. 52.0 exp. vs. 52.0 flash

07:45 Italy 48.4 vs. 48.7 exp. vs. 49.2



Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 07:23 GMT July 1, 2019
Monday Trading Agenda

cable exhibiting sup again from 12660. seems to pull in bids everytime...

london red 07:05 GMT July 1, 2019
Monday Trading Agenda

euro looking like it requires a test of 113. lot of options related sup expected there. still needs to avoid closing below 200dma for a save, otherwise mkt heading lower.

haifa ac 06:01 GMT July 1, 2019
U.S. suicide rates are at the highest level since World War II,
Reply   
U.S. suicide rates are at the highest level since World War II, according to a new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report, per Bloomberg's Cynthia Koons.

By the numbers: From 2000 to 2006, the suicide rate in the U.S. increased by an average of about 1% a year. From 2006 through 2016, it increased by 2% a year. There were 1.4 million suicide attempts in 2017 and 47,000 deaths.

Why it matters: Despite an improvement of material well-being, emotional distress in the U.S. has reached "crisis levels," according to the CDC.

Koons reports that the national mental health epidemic stems from various causes, including "genetic, social, and environmental factors."

https://www.axios.com/mental-health-depression-suicide-epidemic-51ed2696-4153-49a9-8fba-e3f6958259c9.html

Amman wfakhoury 05:35 GMT July 1, 2019
GBP confirmed signals
Reply   
GBPUSD now 12679 -12700 confirmed
Buy add buy if decline.

GBPJPY now 13735 -13700 confirmed
Sell add sell if rise

GBPCHF now 12464 -12400 confirmed
Sell add sell if rise
MAKE GOOD PROFIT WITH ALL THE ABOVE CONFIRMED LEVELS

The only one in the world who confirms the next level and every hour movement

haifa ac 04:52 GMT July 1, 2019
80% of the stock market is now on autopilot
Reply   
Passive investments control about 60% of the equity assets, while quantitative funds -- those relying on trend-following models instead of fundamental research -- now account for 20% of the market share, according to estimates from J.P. Morgan.
Passive funds have attracted $39 billion of inflows so far this year, whereas active funds lost a whopping $90 billion in 2019, the bank said."....

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/28/80percent-of-the-stock-market-is-now-on-autopilot.html

dc CB 01:15 GMT July 1, 2019
Monday Trading Agenda

latest video
Sell Zone

Northman Traders UTube free uploads

dc CB 00:43 GMT July 1, 2019
Monday Trading Agenda

Lastly, the most important market in the world is where debtors and creditors meet to haggle over the price of capital. We are told second-rate bureaucrats (central bankers) that they are more qualified to set the price of capital than free markets. Seems like a God complex

Dave Collum tweet

Mtl JP 00:24 GMT July 1, 2019
Monday Trading Agenda

In a speech Saturday in Koenigswinter, Germany Mersch also re-stated the ECB’s recent macroeconomic projections and reaffirmed that

the central bank intends to keep interest rates at their present level at least through the first half of 2020.

dc CB 00:05 GMT July 1, 2019
Monday Trading Agenda

offsides

Gold COT

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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