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Forex Forum Archive for 01/15/2020

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Mtl JP 23:13 GMT January 15, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 16 January 2020



In an effort to re-assure myself I am keeping tab.
According to ICE
the puppy in the picture is composed of
Euro (EUR) 0.576
Japanese Yen (JPY) 0.136
British Pound (GBP) 0.119
Canadian Dollar (CAD) 0.091
Swedish Krona (SEK) 0.042
Swiss Franc (CHF) 0.036
currency weights

the formula and the percentage weights of the component currencies (pdf)

Mtl JP 22:54 GMT January 15, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 16 January 2020

MacroMicro 22:47 I have no way of knowing
just playing odds as I see them while taking #1 care of my risk

Israel MacroMicro 22:47 GMT January 15, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 16 January 2020

JP

your USD getting punched scenario, yes and no thingy.
yes will happen and no chance the coming weeks.
US indices correcting (finally) few % first?

Mtl JP 21:27 GMT January 15, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 16 January 2020

lagarde speech-ilizes tom at 19:00 CET
(should be 13hrs NYT, but best verify)

dc CB 21:16 GMT January 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS



The Farce is Strong. (Yoda)
"I'm ready for my close-up, Mr Demille". Norma Desmond, Sunset Boulevard 1950, Billy Wilder director.
______________________________________________________

Speaker Pelosi: "This is about the Constitution of the United States and it's important for the president to know, and Putin to know, that voters in America should decide who our president is, not Putin and Russia."

Nadler: "It is essential that we bring this impeachment to stop the president from trying to rig...Not from trying. He tried....from rigging the next election."

House Votes To Send Impeachment To Senate, Confirms Managers

AT Trader 21:00 GMT January 15, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 16 January 2020

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Thu 16 Jan 2019
A 10:00 EZ- ECB Minutes
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 13:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:30 US- Philly Fed
A 15:00 US- NAHB
Fri 17 Jan 2019
A 09:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP
A 13:30 US- House Starts/Permits
A 14:15 US- Industrial Production
A 15:00 US- JOLTS
AA 15:00 US- Flash Univ of Michigan


AT Trader 20:58 GMT January 15, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 16 January 2020
Reply   
LATE Wednesday
DJ: +44
SP: -0.3


2-yr 1.569% -0.3
Spread 10s-2s +21.2 (+22.9 bp)
10-yr
US: 1.781% -3.7
UK: 0.656% +0.2
DE: -0.211% -0.4


EURUSD MACRO TREND: NEUTRAL
Spot Rate (Pivot Point)
EURUSD 1.1149 (1.1144)
GBPUSD 1.3024 (1.3018)
EURGBP 0.8558 (0.8525)
USDJPY 109.89 (109.90)

this week 1.1105-1.1164 (45) pips

wed: 1.1119-1.1164 (45)
tue: 1.1105-1.1145 (40)
mon: 1.1113-1.1147 (34)
fri: 1.1086-1.1130 (44)
thu: 1.1093-1.1121 (28)


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20-day avg: 1.1135
50-day avg: 1.1090
100-day avg: 1.1064
200-day avg: 1.1136

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GVI Forex Blog 20:33 GMT January 15, 2020
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 15 January 2020
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 15 January 2020

Mtl JP 18:18 GMT January 15, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 15 Jan 2020



what was this morning's 'belly up' to the Juice Bar, and how much juice to expect trade call again ?

dc CB 17:52 GMT January 15, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 15 Jan 2020

mushroom feeding?????????

Last week we found out that Dallas Fed president Kaplan knows that the Fed is creating excess and imbalances in stocks. Yes, bloating the Fed’s balance sheet by over $400B in four months has a massive impact on stock markets. And billions of repo liquidity unleashed each day can be seen impacting the daily action as well.

So what’s Jerome Powell have to say about all this? Silence. Not a word. Of course he doesn’t have to because the crack reporters never confront him on the issue in his post Fed meeting press conferences. Bubble away accountability free. Why bother asking the hard questions? That may just get you disinvited from the next press conference.

He Knows

Mtl JP 17:47 GMT January 15, 2020
Forex View: Don't Fight the Central Banks

trump also laced into warsh basically calling him soft as dough
makes warsh look eunuch-i

Israel MacroMicro 17:44 GMT January 15, 2020
Forex View: Don't Fight the Central Banks

serious ego Trump is housing inside himself :)

Israel MacroMicro 17:43 GMT January 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

JP 17:36

reasonable approach you suggested. sometimes I have fomo attacks :)

Mtl JP 17:38 GMT January 15, 2020
Forex View: Don't Fight the Central Banks

Trump criticizes Fed anew ahead of China-deal signing - MarketWatch

Mtl JP 17:36 GMT January 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

0.9630
MacroMicro 15:57 - why not wait for busting thru the Pivot on the other side first ?

dc CB 17:23 GMT January 15, 2020
Forex View: Don't Fight the Central Banks

The Fed’s minutes revealed that after multiple expansions of this vast money spigot, which was previously set to lapse in January after getting the Wall Street trading houses through the year-end money crunch, instead it may be extended through April.

The Fed’s minutes also acknowledge that its most recent actions have tallied up to “roughly $215 billion per day” flowing to trading houses on Wall Street. There were 29 business days between the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the latest Fed minutes, meaning that approximately $6.23 trillion in cumulative loans to Wall Street’s trading houses had been made in that short span of time.

Federal Reserve Admits It Pumped More than $6 Trillion to Wall Street in Recent Six Week Period

Mtl JP 17:18 GMT January 15, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 15 Jan 2020

mushroom feeding
--------------------
Fed’s Kaplan worries that investors got green light to take more risk from recent interest-rate policy

While not QE, buying short-term securities is having QE-like effects, Dallas Fed president says

USA ZEUS 17:09 GMT January 15, 2020
The January Forex Effect: Fact or Fiction?

This is the year (2020) EUR/USD reaches parity.

Cheers!

GVI Forex Blog 16:56 GMT January 15, 2020
The January Forex Effect: Fact or Fiction?
Reply   

You may have heard some say watch the EURUSD January range as the high or low for the year is often set during this month. A close look at price history shows whether this is fact or fiction or a little of both.

I went back 10 years to see how often the EURUSD high or low was set for the year in January. Out of the past 10 years, the high or low was set....

The January Forex Effect: Fact or Fiction?

USA ZEUS 16:26 GMT January 15, 2020
CHF/JPY Reversal
Reply   
CHF/JPY is ready to reverse.
Short at 114.12
Cheers!

Mtl JP 16:22 GMT January 15, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 15 Jan 2020

DJIA 29087 ahead of the tralala
-
players realizing that trade tension will continue for long between what kudlow called "two great nations"

Mtl JP 16:02 GMT January 15, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 15 Jan 2020

Upcoming Event
11:30 NYT
------------------
"phase one" "big, beautiful monster" 86page agreement signing
comedy ceremony

Dow, S&P 500 set new records ahead of signing of U.S.-China trade pact - MarketWatch

maybe ... sell the fact time moment (plz mind your risk)

DJIA 29120 +180pts

Israel MacroMicro 15:57 GMT January 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

0.9818 next ?

Mtl JP 15:54 GMT January 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

USDCHF 9650
-
Pivot: 0.9685
Signal level by the pros at Global-View.com
what else/more do u need ?

Israel MacroMicro 15:49 GMT January 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

selling CHF against all for now

Mtl JP 15:42 GMT January 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

sell CHF against what ?
I am not a DLR buyer; I only look for opps to sell USD

that munchkin is jumping on the swiss suggests that DJT is still rather sensitive about his relative ccy valuation and trade theory.

"Do not fight Donald". Rather I am gunning to use his applied theory to make a few posi-pips on his back.

AT Trader 15:34 GMT January 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts






NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: -2.549 vs. -0.800 vs. +1.200 prev.
Distillates: +8.180 vs. +0.900 vs. +5.300 prev.
Gasoline: +6.678 vs. +4.000 exp vs. +9.100 prev.



Weekly Petroleum Status Report



Israel MacroMicro 15:34 GMT January 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

JP

I started to sell CHF across the board, what you think about such?

Mtl JP 15:07 GMT January 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

First xi ... king for life
then bibi salivating
now vladimir gunning for similar
donald ... who knows what he is scheming
monky see monky do

Israel MacroMicro 14:29 GMT January 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

Russian PM waves dasvedaniya to Putin, market mover?

SaaR KaL 14:02 GMT January 15, 2020
aapl south to 250
Reply   
it's going bye bye

Israel MacroMicro 13:59 GMT January 15, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 15 Jan 2020

what happens when the goods shipped as part of the trade deal found as defective by the Chinese buyer?

SaaR KaL 13:58 GMT January 15, 2020
USDJPY
Reply   
South bound

i think mkt is ok to tgt 106
same for CADJPY---tgt 81

AT Trader 13:58 GMT January 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

Empire PMI January, 2019



NEWS ALERT
+4.8 vs. +4.0 exp. vs. +3.5 prev.




--------------
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. PPI December 2019



NEWS ALERT
Final Demand: 0.10% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. -0.20% (r. ) prev.
Core: +0.10% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.30% (r. ) prev.


RELEASE: Producer Price Index


AT Trader john 12:56 GMT January 15, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 15 Jan 2020

EUR focus today
up, but off highs vs USD and GBP
EURCHF steady

USD 10s yield lower 1.799% -1.9bp
DJ -3
SP +2.1

Mtl JP 12:06 GMT January 15, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 15 Jan 2020

GBP 1.3013
-
under 1.3020 = sell

Mtl JP 11:59 GMT January 15, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 15 Jan 2020

heading into “phase one” “big, beautiful monster” 86 page agreement signing day
asia stocks : down
europe: flat
US: looking down a bit

Gold uP $8

Livingston nh 11:46 GMT January 15, 2020
EUROPE

Critical Mass of Money Creation over the past decade has been pushed out by CBs and politicians w/ idiotic programs

And NOW
LINK

from me 2009 -
"The big currency trend is the steady erosion of manufacturing jobs and some other outsourcing - the only way to reverse that is protectionism through subsidy and offshore tax changes - globalization is dead so the folks who are talking about reserve currencies and changes to the current regime might give that some thought"

SO - nobody expects INFLATION (see Monty Python's Spanish Inquisition)

GVI Forex Blog 11:46 GMT January 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS: U.K. CPI data Miss in December 2019
Reply   

U.K. CPI and RPIX chart

U.K. Headline December 2019 y/y CPI below estimates for +1.50% rise. RPIX +2.20% y/y.

BREAKING NEWS: U.K. CPI data Miss in December 2019

london red 11:29 GMT January 15, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 15 Jan 2020

fwiw they tend to balance books by selling eurusd. of course they will pick their moments.

AT Trader john 11:15 GMT January 15, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 15 Jan 2020

I read this morning that the SNB has been quietly buying EURCHF recently to support the EUR vs. Swissy. Thus the Trump Administration is calling the Swiss currency manipulators.

For USD traders this implies EURUSD demand.

AT Trader 10:00 GMT January 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

Industrial Production December 2019





ALERT

+0.20% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. -0.50% prev.




AT Trader john 09:40 GMT January 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

soft inflation data Gilt 10s now 0.659% -6.4bp

AT Trader 09:38 GMT January 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

U.K. CPI December 2019

U.K. Charts





-- NEWS ALERT --

CPI m/m: 0.0% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.
CPI y/y: +1.30% vs. +1.50% exp. vs. +1.50% prev.



AT Trader 09:11 GMT January 15, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 15 Jan 2020

Early Wednesday
DJ: -4
SP: +1.4


2-yr 1.564% -1.4 bp
Spread 10s-2s +22.9 (+24.5 bp)
10-yr
US: 1.793% -2.5
UK: 0.681% -4.1
DE: -0.198% -2.6


EURUSD MACRO TREND: NEUTRAL
Spot Rate (Pivot Point)
EURUSD 1.1128 (1.1126)
GBPUSD 1.3015 (1.3006)
EURGBP 0.8549 (0.8535)
USDJPY 109.91 (110.02)

this week 1.1105-1.1147 (42) pips

wed: 1.1119-1.1137 (18)
tue: 1.1105-1.1145 (40)
mon: 1.1113-1.1147 (34)
fri: 1.1086-1.1130 (44)
thu: 1.1093-1.1121 (28)
wed: 1.1108-1.1168 (60)


Sign up now for your invaluable report

How To Turn Your Forex Trading Into A Business

20-day avg: 1.1135
50-day avg: 1.1089
100-day avg: 1.1064
200-day avg: 1.1137

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points





PAR 09:09 GMT January 15, 2020
EUROPE
Reply   
Credit ratings of euro countries downgraded

The rating agency Moody's lowered the outlook for the creditworthiness of the euro countries to “negative”. The more skeptical assessment is based on the high level of public debt. Most euro countries would have only limited buffers to react to a deteriorating external environment. This makes euro area countries vulnerable to geopolitical risks or an increase in protectionism, Moody's commented.

AT Trader john 08:52 GMT January 15, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 15 Jan 2020

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Wed 15 Jan 2019
A 09:30 GB- CPI
A 10:00 EZ- Production
A 13:30 US- PPI
B 15:00 US- Lead Indicators
A 15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 16 Jan 2019
A 10:00 EZ- ECB Minutes
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 13:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:30 US- Philly Fed
A 15:00 US- NAHB
Fri 17 Jan 2019
A 09:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP
A 13:30 US- House Starts/Permits
B 13:30 US- Empire PMI
A 14:15 US- Industrial Production
A 15:00 US- JOLTS
AA 15:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


Amman wfakhoury 08:48 GMT January 15, 2020
GBPUSD 13002
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 15:34 GMT 01/14/2020
GBPUSD into buy mood ..with football motion pattern.
any rise will return to 13002 and 12995.
price now 13006
-_________________________________
Price again at 13002 from 13041 high.
signal expired.

Mtl JP 04:21 GMT January 15, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 15 Jan 2020

EURO 1.1131 = 3x s/t top testing

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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