Forex Forum Archive for 01/11/2020

HK RF@ 22:16 GMT January 11, 2020
Iran in a total state of confusion(domestic+international)

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As promised by the header days ago:

Videos posted to social media showed demonstrators outside Tehran�s Amirkabir University chanting against the regime and urging Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei to resign. Calls included �Death to the dictator,� �Shame on you Khamenei, leave the country,� �Death to the liars,� and �Shame on the Revolutionary Guards, let the country go.�

VIDEO

Mtl JP 21:52 GMT January 11, 2020
Winners and Losers

winners and losers
shut down access = seize
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another excellent reason for Russian anti-sanctions international payments system (SPFS):

U.S. Warns Iraq It Risks Losing Access to Key Bank Account if Troops Told to Leave - paywalled wsj Jan. 11, 2020

"Loss of access to New York Fed account, where international oil sale revenue is kept, could creating cash crunch in Iraq�s financial system

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York provides banking and other financial services for around 250 central banks, governments and other foreign official institutions.

The Trump administration warned Iraq this week that it risks losing access to a critical government bank account if Baghdad kicks out American forces following the U.S. airstrike that killed a top Iranian general, according to Iraqi officials.

The State Department warned that the U.S. could shut down Iraq�s access to the country�s central bank account held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, a move that could jolt Iraq�s already shaky economy, the officials said.

Iraq, like other countries, maintains government accounts at the New York Fed as an important part of managing the country�s finances, including revenue from oil sales. Loss of access to the accounts could restrict Iraq�s use of that revenue, creating a cash crunch in Iraq�s financial system and constricting a critical lubricant for the economy.

The prospect of U.S. sanctions against Iraq arose after the Jan. 3 U.S. airstrike that killed Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani at Baghdad International Airport. The Iraqi parliament voted Sunday to urge Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi to work toward the expulsion of the approximately 5,300 U.S. troops.

In response to the nonbinding resolution, which was backed by the prime minister, President Trump threatened to impose sanctions against Iraq if the U.S. was forced to withdraw its troops.

Mr. Abdul-Mahdi moved ahead with those plans this week, requesting the U.S. agree to talks to plan the safe withdrawal of American troops, according to an Iraqi description of a Thursday call with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Mr. Pompeo disagreed with Iraq�s version of his call with Mr. Abdul-Mahdi and said the U.S. would continue its Iraq-based campaign against the Islamic State extremist group. The State Department declined to comment on the U.S. warning to Iraq about its New York Fed account.

The warning regarding the Iraqi central bank account was conveyed to Iraq�s prime minister in a call on Wednesday, according to an official in his office, that also touched on the overall military, political and financial partnership between the two countries.

Spokesmen for the Iraqi prime minister, its central bank and its embassy in Washington didn�t respond to requests for comment. The U.S. State and Treasury Departments and the Federal Reserve Board declined to comment.

The Federal Reserve Bank in New York, which can freeze accounts under U.S. sanctions law or if it has reasonable suspicion the funds could violate U.S. law, said it doesn�t comment on specific account holders."

AT Trader 15:55 GMT January 11, 2020
Monday Amazing Trader 13 January 2020
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 13 Jan 2020
A 09:30 GB- Output, GDP
Tue 14 Jan 2020
AA 13:30 US- CPI
A 13:30 US- House Starts/Permits
B 13:30 US- Empire PMI
A 15:00 US- JOLTS
Wed 15 Jan 2019
A 09:30 GB- CPI
A 10:00 EZ- Production
A 13:30 US- PPI
B 15:00 US- Lead Indicators
A 15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 16 Jan 2019
A 10:00 EZ- ECB Minutes
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 13:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:30 US- Philly Fed
A 15:00 US- NAHB
Fri 17 Jan 2019
A 09:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP
A 14:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 15:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

Minneapolis DRS2 14:49 GMT January 11, 2020
Sometimes it's different

Some of the greatest hospitals in the world are run by Catholics.

Mtl JP 14:40 GMT January 11, 2020
Sometimes it's different

Show ONE contribution of Islam to the world in the last 799 years!
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How about
Show ONE contribution of ANY religion to the world in the last 799 years!

jkt abel 11:29 GMT January 11, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 8 Jan 2020

stupid Iran opened mouth too early, they havent learnt the art of negotiation

Minneapolis DRS2 11:04 GMT January 11, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 8 Jan 2020

Up to this point, the "standard response" for Iran would have been to blow something up like a passenger airplane, and then blame the US for "stirring up trouble". It is a model that works quite well when the US president is a Democrat...particularly one like Obama, who had Iran-friendly staff in his cabinet (Valerie Jarrett). The US would take the blame for Iran's actions, offer some kind of payment, and Iran would look like the good guys to the world.

Now that Donald Trump is president, the standard response no longer works. The US under Trump killed Soleimani. Don't go blowing up some other country's people and their stuff, and expect that the blowback will hit the US. Trump ain't Obama, his people aren't a bunch of Valerie Jarretts, and the US ain't responsible for the Ukraine plane. That's on Iran.

haifa ac 10:25 GMT January 11, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 8 Jan 2020

"What if one of those missiles destroyed the Ukrainian plane with 180 aboard. All dead. Iran rushed to declare mechanical failure (it was a 737) before any evidence from the ground. Who knows?!"

So far Ukraine is asking reparations.

The important issue today is the widening perception in the world of the answer to the question:

"How can you tell if an Iranian is lying?"

Answer:
"He opens his mouth!"

Mtl JP 01:33 GMT January 11, 2020
Friday Amazing Trader 10 Jan 2020

dc CB 16:32/33 - so what ?
HOW do we make OR how do we protect from losing moolah ?
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Ok, so (I think) I get it: things are as they should be.

And right now - and as they have been for a while - markets are manipulated. I also think that I get that the Great Manipulator is the FED as it creates currency out of nihilo (exclusive statutory purview) and alloc-distributes it to its prefered corners in the market. We - the mushrooms/peasants - will have to wait 2 years (CB 22:06 Nov 14, 2019) to find out who its favorite children were graced with privileged risk-free profits.

Bottom Line
net current dynamic is that the mushrooms are happy , no euphoric, and in their happiness are enthusiastically obeying the FED's wish for "assets" moving higher in price. And schmei� weg mit Value.

Manipulated corrupt markets make me nervous as mushroom next and around me also knows how fragile trust in price based on favoritism / corruption / privilege is when a sudden grip of questioning assets' Value possess the market.

I think I know HOW do we make but I am less confident about "how do we protect from losing moolah" surrounded as we are by ultra fast reacting unemotional algos and obediently genuflecting to the FED. peasants.

"Too Many Pigs, Not Enough Tits" - A.L.