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Forex Forum Archive for 11/03/2020

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Mtl JP 23:52 GMT November 3, 2020
How to Trade a Political Forex Market

in the interest of trading (volatility is good)
the prefered result tonite would be:

Disputed Outcome

Hk Ab 23:41 GMT November 3, 2020
Mkt
Reply   
The feeling of BREXIT is back

Mtl JP 23:34 GMT November 3, 2020
Biden

note: biden victory, without seizing the senate, would be as disabled as the old man himself

GVI Forex 23:15 GMT November 3, 2020
Biden
Reply   
Risk on start suggests expectations of a Biden victory. Still have to watch the results. Trump needs Florida or he has no chance.

Mtl JP 23:13 GMT November 3, 2020
GVI Forex 23:09 - u mean climbing the wall of worry:
more govvy regs, more taxes and more moRE! gov't itself ?

dc CB 22:13 GMT November 3, 2020
Any questions?...we thought not.



Beverly Hills, California.

AT Trader john 21:41 GMT November 3, 2020
Dow climbs (easily) 1300 points in 2 days

LATE Tuesday: RISK-ON
DJ: 27,480 +555
SP: 3,369 +59
NQ: 11,161 +203

2-yr 0.168% +0.1 bp
Spread 10s-2s +70.9 bp (+71.4)
10-yr

US: 0.877% +2.9 bp
UK: 0.273% 0.0 bp
DE: -0.619% +0.2 bp

EURUSD MACRO TREND: NEGATIVE
Spots (Pivot Point prev day)
EURUSD 1.1703 (1.1693)
GBPUSD 1.3025 (1.3002)
EURGBP 0.8905 (0.8992)
USDJPY 104.57 (104.61)

THIS Week 1.1740-1.1623 (117 pips)
tue: 1.1740-1.1636 (104)
mon: 1.1656-1.1623 (23)
fri 1.1705-1.1640 (65)
thu: 1.1760-1.1650 (110)
wed: 1.1798-1.1718 (80)

20-d avg: 1.1768
50-day avg: 1.1780
100-day avg: 1.1672
200-day avg: 1.1327

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points





GVI Forex Blog 20:30 GMT November 3, 2020
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 3 November 2020
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 3 November 2020

Minneapolis DRS2 20:10 GMT November 3, 2020
Any questions?...we thought not.

Regarding the election, the US is about to enter a situation that some have not been expecting...serious political unrest.

Although a conflicted election has been expected for quite some time, we are in a time where the Democrats under Biden have declared that not only will the election results not be respected (if they lose), but they will begin forming a cabinet and making decisions immediately as if they were in charge.

This has obvious trading implications, as one might imagine. Divided loyalties present problems all over the place...whether or not taxes are paid, who controls the military (particularly nuclear weapons), domestic, and of course fiscal and monetary policy. Stability no longer exists.

This need not be a problem for the nimble trader, as long as you are fast on your feet. Instead of worrying about "who is US president", it might be better to worry about what is happening in each state or each region. That is how the rest of the world is treated, and it seems the US is up next.

dc CB 19:39 GMT November 3, 2020
Any questions?...we thought not.

Interesting.

....this morning when one of the most iconic JPMorgan strategists, the man who this website first thrust into the public eye (as Bloomberg admitted in 2015), stunned his co-workers when i) he accused them of political bias and ii) slammed Biden's policies - an unheard of event at the traditionally democratic bank.

According to Bloomberg, during a broad internal chat with more than 250 sales, trading and research workers, Marko Kolanovic, perhaps the bank's most famous quant and strategist, "accused his colleagues of allowing political bias to influence their market research."

"Wait so our commodity guys base their forecast based on our FX guys’ forecast, which based forecast based on our economist forecast, who bases his forecast of party preference," Kolanovic quipped, and incidentally he was absolutely right, because the kind of narrative "goalseeking" that finally caused Marko to snap is the same censored that banks have subjected their clients to for the past 6 months, first claiming Trump is good for stocks, then Biden, the a Blue Wave, then a Red Wave, flip-flopping daily to make each and every outcome bullish, just to prevent clients from selling stocks.

JPM Stunned After Kolanovic Accuses Co-Workers Of Political Bias, Slams Biden Policies

dc CB 19:33 GMT November 3, 2020
Any questions?...we thought not.

I have no idea.

Israel MacroMicro 19:25 GMT November 3, 2020
Any questions?...we thought not.

yes cb, one question
who you think to win the presidential elections?

dc CB 19:22 GMT November 3, 2020
Any questions?...we thought not.
Reply   
Res ipsa loquitur – The thing itself speaks

“We’ll be doing coverage on Peacock and we can assure you if Trump declares victory we’ll say, don’t take the feed. It’s not going to happen. We won’t be part of any disinformation campaign, we’ll be doing election coverage until midnight or whenever is over.”

an interesting moment on Monday as the hosts and guest on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” were discussing the coverage of the election. Willie Geist raised the possibility that President Trump could declare victory on election night before all the votes have been counted. Joe Scarborough responded that NBC would simply make a Twitter-like determination and not carry the speech. It would not be treated as obvious news but rather “disinformation” . . . regardless of what has transpired on election day.

Jonathan Turley

Israel MacroMicro 19:20 GMT November 3, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 4 November 2020

some want the two walking catastrophes and paying for that

no inflation

Israel MacroMicro 18:58 GMT November 3, 2020
Dow climbs (easily) 1300 points in 2 days

should the mentally incompetent empty shell of a disabled old man vote, I would expect Canada to LOCK DOWN near the first orders for the land. and associated profit opportunities.

london red 18:57 GMT November 3, 2020
Even if Biden wins, Trump

its poss, his character suggest so, but he may well consider what comes after, so maybe nothing. but if biden does win, whoever is in charge can always blame what they are doing on his dementia. with trump its trump, with biden who is in the shadows? its a legitimate q no?

haifa ac 18:38 GMT November 3, 2020
Even if Biden wins, Trump
Reply   
is the President until Jan-20-2021
What will he do? be vindictive?
Obama and Clinton issued important decisions on their last day in office.
Wonder how will it affect the near term market behavior.

AT Trader john 18:29 GMT November 3, 2020
NEWS

UK raising terror Alert level from substantial from Severe. This means an attack is "very likely".

Source:

Newsquawk.com

AT Trader john 18:20 GMT November 3, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 4 November 2020
Reply   
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Wed 4 Nov 2020
Final Service PMIs all day
AA 03:30 AU- RBA Decision
A 08:55 DE- Employment
A 10:00 EZ- PPI
A 13:15 US- ADP Payrolls
A 13:30 US/CA- Trade
A 15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 5 Mov 2020
AA 12:00 GB- BOE Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 13:30 US- Productivity
AA 19:00 US- Fed Decision
Fri 5 Nov 2020
A 13:30 US/CA- Employment


dc CB 17:38 GMT November 3, 2020
Dow climbs (easily) 1300 points in 2 days

“Under no scenario will Donald Trump be declared a victor on election night.”
Biden’s campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon

"If all the votes are added up in PA, Trump is going to lose."
Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro, a Democrat.

london red 16:45 GMT November 3, 2020
Dow climbs (easily) 1300 points in 2 days

Jp, its poss. but look at second lockdown effects in europe. mkt moved a little lower, a few percent. its the rule of threes. first time mkt is shocked and gets killed. second time mkt still falls a bit but its over quickly. third time the thing passes almost without incident. this of course is what will happen during the third wave in europe at the back end of winter. but mkts wont care by then. this rule of three works for terrorism, financial incidents and now health incidents. so yes there may be ops, but dont look for huge declines cos mkt has seen it before.

GVI Forex Blog 16:34 GMT November 3, 2020
Survey Results: Are you okay with a no deal Brexit?
Reply   

We conducted a snap survey entitled, Are you okay with a no deal Brexit? The survey consisted of one question, Would you be willing to leave the EU without a trade deal?

The results were one sided, Results were as follows:

Survey Results: Are you okay with a no deal Brexit?

Mtl JP 16:29 GMT November 3, 2020
Tuesday Amazing Trader 3 November 2020

EURO 1.17315
-
ODDS are - imo - low that buppy would rocket N if 1.1750

Mtl JP 16:15 GMT November 3, 2020
Dow climbs (easily) 1300 points in 2 days

should the mentally incompetent empty shell of a disabled old man take the presidency, I would expect the US to LOCK DOWN near the first orders for the land. and associated profit opportunities.

HK Kevin 16:08 GMT November 3, 2020
Dow climbs (easily) 1300 points in 2 days

Ant Group delays debut of its shares in Shanghai, Hong Kong less than 48 hours before trading was set to kick off
https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3108309/shanghais-stock-market-operator-calls-halt-ant-groups-imminent

london red 16:08 GMT November 3, 2020
Dow climbs (easily) 1300 points in 2 days

ac, maybe so but that doesnt come into it. its a rigged game. has been for years. they want them higher. so they will go higher. printing money is so ok these days that central bankers say it out loud - we can print unlimited amounts of money. better to not fight these idiots, better to play along

Mtl JP 16:01 GMT November 3, 2020
Dow climbs (easily) 1300 points in 2 days

red 15:27 just like the chinese market ?

Mtl JP 15:59 GMT November 3, 2020
Dow climbs (easily) 1300 points in 2 days

DJIA for the record:
27,538.59 +613.54
Open: 27,138.69
High: 27,610.28
Low: 27,138.69

Percent Change: +2.28%

************
DLRx 93.32, down from 92.22-ish

haifa ac 15:38 GMT November 3, 2020
Dow climbs (easily) 1300 points in 2 days

Sorry. I can't see this. Markets are so overbought it is ridiculous. We are due for at least 20% correction.

london red 15:27 GMT November 3, 2020
Dow climbs (easily) 1300 points in 2 days

just the beginning. whoever wins mkt up 5% from lows tomorrow. they don't let them fall. rigged game. btfd.

haifa ac 15:16 GMT November 3, 2020
Dow climbs (easily) 1300 points in 2 days

27404. we shall see here.

lakewood jjlkwd 15:10 GMT November 3, 2020
Is Joe Biden Good or Bad for the Dollar?

the choices should be good
or bad not yes or no. the question says is it good or bad , so an answer of yes means what ? yes good or yes bad ?

AT Trader john 15:05 GMT November 3, 2020
NEWS
Reply   
U.S. Factory Orders October 2020

U.S. Data Charts




-- BREAKING ITEM--

Headline: +1.10% vs. +0.30 exp. vs. +0.70% prev.





haifa ac 14:28 GMT November 3, 2020
Dow climbs (easily) 1300 points in 2 days

Just noticed that there is a weekly gap on the Dow at 27365. Maybe that is where they are aiming.

haifa ac 12:15 GMT November 3, 2020
DB ditches Trump
Reply   
NEW YORK/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank AG is looking for ways to end its relationship with President Donald Trump after the U.S. elections

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-deutsche-bank-exclusive/exclusive-tired-of-trump-deutsche-bank-wants-out-but-sees-no-good-options-sources-idUSKBN27J0G0?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter

london red 12:02 GMT November 3, 2020
Tuesday Amazing Trader 3 November 2020

brexit headlines crossing the wires now, it appears they are no closer than a few weeks ago but any strength seen in eurgbp above 9050 should be faded as mkt still certain a deal will happen and will take a similar course of action on eurgbp.

AT Trader john 11:19 GMT November 3, 2020
Tuesday Amazing Trader 3 November 2020

Personal Observations:
Risk-On today in the U.S., as equity traders figure no matter who wins, that there will be a significant economic stimulus package launched early in the new year. The problem that any new government faces is that there are limits on how much new debt the markets will be willing to absorb. Politicians seem to be unaware that there are limits in this era of zero interest rates. They are not likely to wake up until AFTER the bond vigilantes appear on the scene, and that will be too late.

There is a lot of uncertainty about when the outcome of the elections today will be known. We could know tonight, or it it could take a very long time. Odds are one side or the other will be very unhappy.

Once settled, the focus will turn to the Coronavirus and its long term cure. The only hope for a cure is a vaccine. Its still unknown if any of the many drugs being tested will work.

Risk-On trade sees forex markets buying EURUSD and GBPUSD. EURGBP is lagging as worry about COVID-19 restrictions are casting doubts about the EU and UK. economies. Brexit talks continue to have a mildly positive tone.

U.S. equities are maintaining a broader mildly positive tone. The USD is mixed vs. the Aussie and CAD. No major U.S. data are due today.

Amazing Trader Reviews

haifa ac 11:13 GMT November 3, 2020
Dow climbs (easily) 1300 points in 2 days
Reply   
Pink glasses, or swan song?!

Mtl JP 10:49 GMT November 3, 2020
Tuesday Amazing Trader 3 November 2020

Ahead on NY

- Reuters
Canada dollar seen rising; U.S.'Blue Wave' would bolster prospects: poll
(1.3160 as I type)

- Bloomberg
Spiking Volatility in China Shows Global Markets Are Nervous

- Bloomberg
Traders Eye Cheap Rubles as Hedge Against Trump Election Win

- Bloomberg
China to Halt Key Australian Imports in Sweeping Retaliation

- Bloomberg
Corn Rally Sparks Green Fuel Rethink by Chinese Energy Giant
-- Millions of hungry pigs in China are setting off a chain reaction in the fuel market, causing the biggest oil refiner to rethink its sales strategy.
(this is a good one ..)

AT Trader john 10:45 GMT November 3, 2020
Tuesday Amazing Trader 3 November 2020

Tuesday: RISK-ON
DJ: 27,247 +434
SP: 3,348 +46
NQ: 11,171 +108

2-yr 0.162% +0.4 bp
Spread 10s-2s +71.4 bp (+68.2)
10-yr

US: 0.876% +2.8 bp
UK: 0.252% -3.2 bp
DE: -0.619% +0.2 bp

EURUSD MACRO TREND: NEGATIVE
Spots (Pivot Point prev day)
EURUSD 1.1695 (1.1636)
GBPUSD 1.2990 (1.2900)
EURGBP 0.9002 (0.9099)
USDJPY 104.67 (104.75)

THIS Week 1.1698-1.1623 (75 pips)
tue: 1.1698-1.1626 (72)
mon: 1.1656-1.1623 (23)
fri 1.1705-1.1640 (65)
thu: 1.1760-1.1650 (110)
wed: 1.1798-1.1718 (80)

20-d avg: 1.1775
50-day avg: 1.1784
100-day avg: 1.1666
200-day avg: 1.1327

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points





AT Trader john 10:23 GMT November 3, 2020
Tuesday Amazing Trader 3 November 2020
Reply   
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Tue 3 Nov 2020
AA US Elections all day
Wed 4 Nov 2020
Final Service PMIs all day
AA 03:30 AU- RBA Decision
A 08:55 DE- Employment
A 10:00 EZ- PPI
A 13:15 US- ADP Payrolls
A 13:30 US/CA- Trade
A 15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 5 Mov 2020
AA 12:00 GB- BOE Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 13:30 US- Productivity
AA 19:00 US- Fed Decision
Fri 5 Nov 2020
A 13:30 US/CA- Employment


haifa ac 08:11 GMT November 3, 2020
Bonds at crucial juncture

the 55 weekly MA is now hugged 3 weeks---this is Lull before some storm/
below 170-30 we are in a possible bear market.

PAR 08:05 GMT November 3, 2020
Lagarde and European Banks clash
Reply   
Bonuses, Dividends Pit Banks Against Europe’s Economic Guardians

Negative interest rates forever and prohibition to pay dividends have weakened the European financial system and its banks.

Impotent ECB thinks it is the master of the universe.

Impotent ECB is all about paroles, paroles, paroles

haifa ac 06:59 GMT November 3, 2020
Regrettably...once again
Reply   
looks like nobody dares moving. They all wait for the famous "regrettably..." uttereance.

dc CB 02:44 GMT November 3, 2020
Trump v Biden

The Daily Racing Form

(link to prev)

analysis comp from ZH

dc CB 02:40 GMT November 3, 2020
Trump v Biden

Your Last Minute Election Night Preview: Here's All You Need To Know

the sport of Kings

dc CB 01:56 GMT November 3, 2020
Trump v Biden
Reply   
'Why this year's election is a vomit milkshake'
_______________________________________________
from the pen of the man who brought you 'The Vampire Squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel ...' 2009

The Worst Choice Ever---Matt Tabbi

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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