london red 20:56 GMT December 4, 2020
no deal. eurgbp rises and both eurusd and cable fall but clearly cable falls much further to allow eurgbp to rise.
bare bones deal. initially cable rises and eurgbp falls (138/0.87 respectively) then a fall over a period of days weeks months for sterling as the reality strike that it no longer enjoys eu terms, but terms barely above wto. mkt has been longer sterling for months. this would need to be unwounded and new shorts would of course take advantage of this.
a comprehensive deal. there is no time to do this but if it were somehow to happen that the eu folds on any of its 4 pillars (this is pretty unthinkable ), then eurgbp can move to initially 0.87 then 0.84/85 over the following days/weeks. cable would outperform the eurusd too. this means doing better on the upside and less bad on the downside. thats all you can say as the usd function is what is going to drive those pairs usually.
FW CS 19:59 GMT December 4, 2020
So no deal would be bullish Eur and bearish gbp. A compromise would be bullish both gbp and eur. In the middle then nothing.
london red 19:42 GMT December 4, 2020
sterling eases after talks off for the day. well thank fk for that its late enuff. if u r not up to speed but want to be, the situation is talks are at a stalled point and have been for a long time now. the eu is anxious to move onto budget and recovery fund talks in nxt wks summit meet and is pressuring the uk to fold. the eu is not giving ground on its 4 pillars nor should it. as for the uk they are not backing off either and want control over their own future. also fair enough. folks with at least one brain cell can see where this is going.
london red 19:36 GMT December 4, 2020
97 stimulus announcements
as with other vaccines, it will help u and not others. you will still transmit virus particles that you catch from others but there should be less of them given that your body will be able to fight it off. so you can still be a spreader esp if u start using ur new found freedom in mixing with as many folks as poss. i would expect. but we are now past that. or at least the mkt is. its no longer a mkt issue. the mkt now is back on the stimulus game.
Mtl JP 19:12 GMT December 4, 2020
97 stimulus announcements
what exactly is a vaccine against:
getting infected (like a prophylactique) by the chinese gift OR
getting gravely diseased IF infected - i.e. make an infection benign?
dc CB 18:09 GMT December 4, 2020
97 stimulus announcements
NBC News PR
On whether someone can still transmit the virus after vaccination, Pfizer Chairman & CEO Dr. Albert Bourla tells @LesterHoltNBC: �I think this is something that needs to be examined. We are not certain about that right now with what we know.� #Dateline
10:45 PM � Dec 3, 2020
FW CS 17:45 GMT December 4, 2020
97 stimulus announcements
97 stimulus announcements to pump up markets. Then probably another Vaccine announcement on Monday which would make it 5 I think
Mtl JP 17:26 GMT December 4, 2020
Friday Amazing Trader 4 December 2020
stocks pop on
12:14 Pelosi Says There's Momentum in Stimulus Negotiations
12:06 Fed�s Kashkari says modest rise in inflation would be a success
12:06 Pelosi says there is �momentum� for deal on COVID aid
Mtl JP 16:04 GMT December 4, 2020
personally I like #3 most.
"the stronger dog gets to f..k"
Mtl JP 15:59 GMT December 4, 2020
chart illustrating at least tree of Jay's market wisdoms
1) do not overstay your welcome
2) market rarrely moves in straight line
3) forex market lives to run stops - ("our favorite trading strategy")
london red 15:51 GMT December 4, 2020
daily mail reporter: talks will break up shortly, no white smoke tonight. figures uk housebuilders lower
london red 15:46 GMT December 4, 2020
and as if on queue is evans: do not expect higher rates til 23/24
london red 15:42 GMT December 4, 2020
the 10 is coming up to its recent high 0.982. one can see an inverted shs. ouch for anyone wanting lower rates. so they prob step in to keep em down. so yields should shoot up. but they wont
PAR 15:16 GMT December 4, 2020
BofA: "As the market looks past near term COVID headwinds we expect 10y rates to move toward 1.25-1.5%, consistent with fundamentals"
HK Kevin 15:13 GMT December 4, 2020
Put this pair into my watch list. Worth a short near 0.9550-60 with tight stop.
Mtl JP 15:01 GMT December 4, 2020
thin market has its advantages
Inside of GBP's earlier 1.3410 / 1.3490 chop-chop I am still bearish.
1.35 and 1.3515 Res (now taken), 1.3410 S
Solid break N of 1.35 would trgt some FIB value price points
HK Kevin 14:46 GMT December 4, 2020
Israel MacroMicro 14:34, noted this post and I use ETF. Also buy some PFE put options.
london red 14:34 GMT December 4, 2020
sterling mkt is v thin. anyone that wanted derivatives bought them when vols where cheaper and only high risk traders doing naked spot here. any deal is largely in the price, certainly on a mkt close basis although intraday should offer a couple of hundred pips. but it will certainly be better to travel than arrive in the case of a deal.
Israel MacroMicro 14:34 GMT December 4, 2020
Kevin, pay attention to my trade with NQ options. after analyzing it yourself, you may join. can make some there. imo
london red 14:32 GMT December 4, 2020
JP, they are voting on internal mkt bill nxt week. a deal and this are incompatible. hence johnson wants them to accept this. and they wont. and thats one of the reasons they are stuck.
HK Kevin 14:30 GMT December 4, 2020
Israel MacroMicro 14:26 GMT, great trades. I miss your advice earlier this week.
Israel MacroMicro 14:26 GMT December 4, 2020
exited most of GBP/AUD longs @ 1.8210
only positional left with 1.8110 stop for now
Mtl JP 14:26 GMT December 4, 2020
..." breaks eu law and the WD agreement" ...
That would be a long(er)-term concideration, ya ? But not for FX market. I suspect.
Current state of affairs surrounding brexit yakkings is the short-term energy driving the yo-yoing in GBP.
If my hope for and bet on a no-deal should materialize, both GBP and Euro should tank some.
I am still optimistic that related pops in the DLR would be limited both in scope and in time.
The current trend in the DLR looks well established.
HK Kevin 14:23 GMT December 4, 2020
Covered my short NZD at 0.7046 before the NFP annoucement. Now hold short AUD/NZD at 1.0542
HK Kevin 16:18 GMT 12/03/2020
I really like this one, but I have already short NZD above 0.71.
PAR 15:20 GMT 12/03/2020
HK OO 14:16 GMT December 4, 2020
Is there a brexit deal?
Jkt Abel 14:08 GMT December 4, 2020
We are inching higher and higher. 1.35 probed. Not so far from 1.38-1.40
Hk Ab 14:06 GMT December 4, 2020
Sth is being brewed and will be shown up by day close. Hope bangsters don�t read this.....
Hk Ab 13:43 GMT December 4, 2020
Where are the ducklings?
PAR 13:38 GMT December 4, 2020
US unemployment rate fell to 6.7% in November, 8 percentage points below its peak, but recent payroll and labor participation data are sluggish.
london red 13:28 GMT December 4, 2020
i doubt it. not right now. the eu isnt giving them anything at all. no state aid, no self governance, no right to own all their fish. he wont be able to sell leaving the eu with nothing in return. dont forget they are pressing on with internal mkt bill next week, which breaks eu law and the WD agreement.
Jkt Abel 13:24 GMT December 4, 2020
There will be a deal. Boris will crack on the last minute.
london red 13:16 GMT December 4, 2020
with forex on margin u have to remember you are speculating in a leveraged manner. its not something i would look at for more than a few weeks. moving money and investing it in assets of that currency provides a return often on two fronts. and no charges. imo if there is no deal and u buy correctly, you can be looking at 50% unleveraged returns within 24 months. and that might be conservative.
Israel MacroMicro 13:01 GMT December 4, 2020
I totally agree with you red
when and if markets get extremely volatile, it is better to take positions with instruments that offer a "bargain". which one will be the best instrument to long and hold, time will show!
london red 12:50 GMT December 4, 2020
eurgbp is quite a big deal in europe given financial flows are massive london to and from europe. the problem with a bare bones deal i outlined below. it locks in a poor position for the uk and after months and months of buying sterling, folks are going to be selling it as reality dawns that the uk hasnt achieved anything, but gone backwards. remember that although the uk has already left, it enjoys the same deal now as other eu members. from jan 1st this changes to whatever has been agreed or its wto terms. clearly both of thse positions are worse for the uk. the eu is bigger and can cope as a whole although individual nations will be affected in differing ways (fish fruit bigger hits for example). so one can expect, after many months of buying sterling, folks will start selling, given the reality. where a no deal knocks us down to parity/1.05, it can really get no worse as eventually they would agree on something, so i would expect sterling to slowly rally from those initial hits down but not to get back to current or higher levels until something was agreed. still id class such ops as one in a decade chances to buy uk assets as you leverage your gains with the currency appreciation that would come in time.
london red 12:41 GMT December 4, 2020
eurgbp is a bigger issue rather than cable. and a better comparison since usd doesnt muddy the waters. in any case rising cable is bad for ft100 profits in general so u may even see the ft100 hold up in event of a no deal. one just needs to look back at price action after the referendum to see ft100 wasnt really bothered after a couple of sessions. ft250 is where the pain is felt on no deal but a 15-20% fall in sterling would help no end, but i would also expect a wave of takeover attempts by foreign parties if that were to happen.
Tallinn viies 12:40 GMT December 4, 2020
how you see things develop after deal or no deal announcment.
which of the crosse is the main mover and which are proxys?
Im just wondering where the main flow will be traded. is it cable? and how does gbp moves influence "big brother" eurusd''?
I guess sterling crosses are much smaller comapred to eurusd market.
Israel MacroMicro 12:29 GMT December 4, 2020
red, the GBP exchange rate is much more than only the GBP/USD exchange rate. I think with that I covered the real important issue.
london red 12:29 GMT December 4, 2020
johnson on the wires now telling it like it is.
london red 12:23 GMT December 4, 2020
why should sterling fall on a bare bones deal? well imagine eu membership as a full option gym pass. you get everything for a monthly fee. now if you leave you still have access to a lot of things in the gym but you must pay your way, inevitably more expensive than a monthly pass. this is the difference between what the uk has now and what it will have from jan 1st 2021. and why sterling will not be rallying more than a few hours after a bare bones deal is announced. remember the uk has already left the eu. and if no bares deal happen, then the uk loses rights to many things and has to pay more those those rights that remain. of course, in time it can build its own gym, to its own requirements (thats the bit about buy the no deal mark down). in laymans terms if u like
london red 11:49 GMT December 4, 2020
gold 1848-1854 was key lvl. if held its going back down if breached then 1950/65 likely next week
Israel MacroMicro 11:34 GMT December 4, 2020
Nasdaq 100 done after expiry of 12500 options .
in my very personal opinion, P11900 options expiring with the MAR/21 contract holding right now the possibility to act as a jackpot provider for the ones trading wider time frames. at least 350% possible gain at certain time until the expiry. the maximum draw-down well known in advance. use the low VIX in your favor.
Israel MacroMicro 11:25 GMT December 4, 2020
Fivefold Risk On
AUD/SGD at interesting point right now
Israel MacroMicro 11:24 GMT December 4, 2020
abel, Cain's plans will be clearer on the 4H candle around the NFP. as you know, Cain is very active with GBP/JPY :)
jkt abel 11:24 GMT December 4, 2020
where are the gold traders today? so quiet?
jkt abel 11:15 GMT December 4, 2020
MM, gbpjpy still for 142-145?
Israel MacroMicro 10:51 GMT December 4, 2020
abel, for that I must give credit for the great Jay Meisler. as long traders have hope for one or the other side, the bigger traders have stops to trigger :)
1:1 leverage traders have one thing in common, their middle name (which is based on five words) is: "we love and admire drawdowns" :)
jkt abel 10:40 GMT December 4, 2020
MM, that's very encouraging for cable bulls actually, 1.51 not bad for 1:1 leverage, even considering most only expect it down to 1.20 in worst case scenario, so 1400 pips down or 1700 up, still up is more rewarding, not?
Israel MacroMicro 10:37 GMT December 4, 2020
Buy MARKET CHATTER
Entry: Target: Stop:
I spammed enough
have a great weekend all
Israel MacroMicro 10:35 GMT December 4, 2020
nonsense in the bad case
funny in the better case
the one writing such articles makes his living from writing.
- who is the one paying for writer's living?
- how much the one paying the writer's living is making from the volatility such articles create?
- Macron used to be an active trader, for who he worked as active trader and how great the relationship with that "paying for Macron living" is today? (or, how very great)
- the former Macron's "living payer" is the master of buy the dips and sell the blips in cycles time frame, not?!
Israel MacroMicro 10:29 GMT December 4, 2020
John, you are not naive if you survived decades in this business :)
point is, all the roads of deal or no deal leading to the same place trading point of view, buy the dips and sell the blips :)
Mtl JP 10:26 GMT December 4, 2020
...."City of London banks have been warned that they need to move jobs and assets to the continent to continue trading post-Brexit. The European Central Bank (ECB) insisted on Wednesday that UK-based financial institutions must not use the coronavirus as an excuse to avoid relocation before the end of the transition period. The ECB, which supervises the eurozone's biggest banks, said that lenders operating in the bloc must move sufficient capital, staff and management expertise to ensure the sort of physical presence required for prudent risk management."
France's 'desire to use Brexit to weaken City of London' exposed in leaked memo
Israel MacroMicro 10:25 GMT December 4, 2020
Entry: Target: Stop:
last one, no deal or deal are great for the "big money" class
great no deal: the short term "chaos" to cause generating a deal in a rush according to their guidance
great deal: it will be according to their guidance
bottom line: cable will trade above 1.5151 during the coming 3 years
just my opinion
Israel MacroMicro 10:20 GMT December 4, 2020
I shared RAYS cable chart with multiple time frames
I think it is good time to pay it attention again now
Israel MacroMicro 10:14 GMT December 4, 2020
- pro brexit want UK to go back in time to mid 90's or other point of time in the past.
- anti Brexit want to stay in current times and keep their capital accumulation and growth process remain unharmed.
why the "money" is against Brexit?!
well, global capital distribution is handled from such compressed circles at the present and Brexit is harming them.
this is how I see the narratives around brexit.
therefore, I remain with my stand that no matter if there is a deal or no deal, in reality all to remain the same. more or less check points do not change reality.
jkt abel 10:10 GMT December 4, 2020
Fivefold Risk On
how about usd's double trouble NFP+brexit later on?
PAR 10:01 GMT December 4, 2020
Fivefold Risk On
US stimulus package
More vaccines coming
Better than expected economic numbers
Tesla to buy or merge with Daimler?
london red 09:58 GMT December 4, 2020
eu saying a breakthrough is imminenet yet uk is saying chances are receding. eu wants this put to bed by 10/11 dec eu meet as it wants to focus on budget and help package which the hungarians and poles are blocking. so it has bigger fish to fry. the uk has no rush. covid is already making things pretty bad, brexit is a drop in the ocean. we will see who blinks
PAR 09:58 GMT December 4, 2020
- EU Official: UK Trade Deal "Imminent", Expected By The End Of The Weekend Barring Last-Minute Breakdown In Talks
- EU Stands Firm On State Aid Demands
- May Have Another Gathering On Brexit After Summit Due Dec.10-11
Mtl JP 09:52 GMT December 4, 2020
shawn so far I am sticking to my 18:33 Dec 3
john - that same hypothesis crossed my mind.
European princes are a devious and evil genetical pool, historically.
Here is my hope:
Possibly they have internal strife in light of the "democracy":
..."Each country has a veto. .... France will veto a Brexit deal if the EU member state does not like it, the country's European Affairs minister has said." ... - telegraph
kl fs 09:49 GMT December 4, 2020
follow the money trails, sterling is a buy on dips
kl shawn 09:45 GMT December 4, 2020
thanks for the insight, red
if 3-5% initial spike to be expected, that will take us to 1.40 first,
most retails will be dead by then even if their short is proven to be right
this is not going to be fun for most sterling traders out there
london red 09:43 GMT December 4, 2020
john, the eu is sticking to its 4 pillars and has every right. compromising here will open a can of worms for the future - anyone wanting to leave will know the eu can be compromised. for the good of the future of the eu, the eu cannot budge. as for the uk, it is also within its rights to get what it can. but bare bones is certainly worse than what they have now. so bare bones deal means sterling weakness over next few months relative to euro. a no deal gives you a big mark down at which one can buy give the worst would be in the price. all roads lead to a deal, once you have no deal there is little downside.
london red 09:39 GMT December 4, 2020
shawn the worst case scenario is euro sterling parity. nothing has been priced in except a deal at around 85-90% probability. even if there is a deal it will be bare bones and sterling will initially climb 3-5% yet finish down on the day as it has already been largely priced in. the downside has not even been looked at. no deal means wto terms and tariffs on goods
AT Trader john 09:34 GMT December 4, 2020
Maybe I am na�ve, but this looks to me like an intentional effort by the EU to sabotage the Brexit talks??
Am I wrong??
AT Trader john 09:30 GMT December 4, 2020
U.K. Construction PMI November 2020
-- Latest Data --
54.7 vs. 52.3 exp. vs. 53.1 prev.
kl shawn 09:30 GMT December 4, 2020
JP, so the way euro is trading though, it will get the best out of this situation until ECB complains?
kl shawn 09:28 GMT December 4, 2020
given the series of headlines we have seen, it should have spooked the market if market has been expecting a deal and we wont be at 1.34, so maybe a worst case scenario has been priced in anyway?
Mtl JP 09:28 GMT December 4, 2020
Brexit talks falter as UK claims EU is hardening negotiating stance
22 hours ago
Brexit: �Breakthrough still possible� as UK-EU trade talks resume
1 hour ago
Politics latest news: France threatens to veto Brexit deal
15 mins ago
Jay... how do you trade a political ccy again ?
kl fs 09:20 GMT December 4, 2020
red, yes i agree, but if they manage to push it as high as possible say 1.40, then maybe the picture will be different aftermath compared to say if it stays around 1.34?
london red 09:09 GMT December 4, 2020
mkt believes there will be a deal til they tell them there isnt. thats how it always works. buying dips will work until they come and and say no deal, then everyone will try to leave longs at once...
kl fs 09:05 GMT December 4, 2020
looks like cable's downside reaction is always limited, opportunity to buy every dips
maybe usd weakness is more predominant theme?
london red 08:50 GMT December 4, 2020
getting closer to no deal. eu officially saying it will not budge (michel). down to the uk. and boris. i doubt he can sell a deal of leaving eu and getting nothing. no deal chance is growing. they cant let it run much past mid dec.
kl fs 08:13 GMT December 4, 2020
lovely, out 13460 for quick 27 pips
kl fs 08:03 GMT December 4, 2020
testing long cable 13433, previous resistance turned support
kl fs 07:59 GMT December 4, 2020
they will leave it till very late, this is all gonna be last minute rush, cant see it coming earlier
haifa ac 07:44 GMT December 4, 2020
Mike Pence Backs Away From the Trump Election �Fraud� Train Wreck
Vice President Mike Pence has been a go-to fundraising draw for the president�s campaign, and since October, no more than a day passed without his name emblazoning a fundraising email for the Trump re-elect.
But that changed late last month. Since Nov. 25, not a single fundraising email from the Trump campaign or its Republican National Committee fundraising account has featured Pence�s name in the �from� field. And this week, that Republican National Committee joint fundraising committee, the Trump Make America Great Again Committee, made another subtle change: a handful of its emails swapped out the official Trump-Pence campaign logo for one featuring just the president�s name.
Belgrade Knez 07:25 GMT December 4, 2020
Is brexit deal announcement scheduled for 31st December or some date earlier?
fhx 07:23 GMT December 4, 2020
Central Kwun 01:53 GMT December 4, 2020
Gold is 100% buy if above 1800
Entry: Target: Stop:
yesterday Gold dropped to 1823 then immediately rebound back to 1841, see how strong the Gold is! Buy on dip is 100%
Jkt Abel 00:33 GMT December 4, 2020
Trade the momentum alongside the trend. Euro 1.25 and cable 1.38-1.40 next
Euro supported 12140 heading to 12240