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Forex Forum Archive for 12/07/2020

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dc CB 21:42 GMT December 7, 2020

as we enter Fauci's Dark Winter or the Covid Great Depression, and Canceled Christmas.

"as through this world I've wandered I've seen lots of funny men
Some will rob you with a six-gun,
And some with a fountain pen."
"Pretty Boy Floyd" by Woody Guthrie
song from the last Great Depression

dc CB 21:27 GMT December 7, 2020

red 20:25
. I fear this is the politics of the #EuropeanUnion, wanting to ensure that no other #EU state exercises their legal right to leave the EU and to limit the competitive potential of post #Brexit #GlobalBritain
picking up on my analogy re- Dec7.

Boris/British now stand alone against the EU's push for total domination of the continent. The EU now more secure in the play than in the past 4 years, as the promise aide from that bastion of democracy across the pond, with the demise of Trump and the rise of 'the appeaser' Biden-Harris....

First Czechoslovakia, then Hungary, then we take Poland...then the Russ. All in the wet dreams of the Princes.

Tallinn viies 21:24 GMT December 7, 2020
seems BOJO trying to use his mojo to convince Lyden to give something visible to UK to show up as a big victory and then sign a deal.

but as all members has agreed the deal can not be better than staying in the EU.
so we need to prepared that no deal is an outcome.
all other markets had setup also this way that eurgbp gonna fly toward 1.0000.
then eurusd 1,25000.

london red 20:57 GMT December 7, 2020

depends on the region but id say its about 50-50 much like the referendum

FW CS 20:56 GMT December 7, 2020

Thanks red. Seems the leaders want this more than the people

london red 20:45 GMT December 7, 2020

while theres always been a natural suspicion towards the eu for many brits, these days many people dont see it making a huge difference, especially since covid. if there was no covid i guess they may be a little more concerned. but given all the lockdowns, the empty shelves, the closed borders, i dont think another event like that will have quite the same effect.

FW CS 20:35 GMT December 7, 2020

Do the People in the UK want a hard Brexit?

london red 20:30 GMT December 7, 2020

"this must now continue politically"

this means negotiating between the two teams are done. a decision will be made by boris and ursula on wednesday night because they are the only ones that can. if one does not convince the other to back down, it will be no deal.

london red 20:25 GMT December 7, 2020

Former international trade secretary Liam Fox:
We all want there to be an #agreement, but the difficulties are not really about #trade. We began these #negotiations with entire identity of regulations, #tariffs and trade law. Which is unprecedented in the history of trade this should have made it more straightforward to get a #deal. I fear this is the politics of the #EuropeanUnion, wanting to ensure that no other #EU state exercises their legal right to leave the EU and to limit the competitive potential of post #Brexit #GlobalBritain

Tallinn viies 19:30 GMT December 7, 2020
EU source says PM/UVDL meeting will probably on margins of EUCO. And UVDL will only want to meet if they can deliver a deal. Says contours of that will need to be defined prior to the meeting." - Sky's Rigby

Israel MacroMicro 19:24 GMT December 7, 2020

spot price should be 13395/3400 roughly

Israel MacroMicro 19:22 GMT December 7, 2020

cable @ 1.3405 at time of parameters posted

Israel MacroMicro 19:18 GMT December 7, 2020

1.3465 seems safe for 24hrs at least, makes sub 1.33 reasonable target.


Mtl JP 19:03 GMT December 7, 2020

viies that is not good , not good at all
for me

GBP popeth to 1.3350 after dip to 1.3292

lakewood jjlkwd 19:02 GMT December 7, 2020

no deal today ... maybe tommorow

Tallinn viies 18:53 GMT December 7, 2020
UK PM Johnson to visit Brussels for an in-person meeting with EU Commission President von Der Leyen to push for a trade deal

Mtl JP 18:33 GMT December 7, 2020

about half hour ago :

UK and EU leaders take break from Brexit deal phone call
By Reuters Staff

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Monday took a break from a discussion on striking a post-Brexit deal, an EU official said.

The call between the two leaders, which follows an inconclusive one on Saturday, was scheduled to start at around 1600 GMT and about 90 minutes after that time the official said they were taking a break.

The official said it was not clear when they would resume their discussion.

Mtl JP 18:27 GMT December 7, 2020

GBP 1.3325 (1.3372 HoD)
c'mon puppy, puke
gimme 100 more

Mtl JP 18:23 GMT December 7, 2020
Dec 7

was that not something about "radar not good; eyesight better" ?

dc CB 17:38 GMT December 7, 2020
Dec 7

it could be said that we are now in the midst of the 2nd 'Treachery for the Far East' dated Dec 2019.
But if one did say that, one would be 'Canceled'.

lakewood jjlkwd 16:42 GMT December 7, 2020
Dec 7

dc CB
anybody who was in the service still alive from then is in the mid nineties...god bless them.

dc CB 16:29 GMT December 7, 2020
Dec 7

Michael Every of Rabobank

****the US election.
---Sensible media say this is all over, and are focusing on Joe Biden’s socks. However, things might suddenly get stormy in the next 48 hours. Tuesday December 8 is so-called “safe harbor” day. Any state’s election outcome that is undisputed by that date is ‘locked’ into the Electoral College ahead of their actual vote on 14 December, which are sealed until read out and then approved by Congress on 6 January.

---Supreme Court Justice Alito has moved forward the deadline from 4pm on Wednesday to 9am tomorrow for Pennsylvania to respond over appeals over the constitutionality of its vote-by-mail legislation.

---there is a constitutional battle raging in at least three states: Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. State Republican leadership is refusing to call special legislative sessions to discuss the election results, yet some state legislators appear close to claiming “plenary” constitutional authority over elections to recall themselves unilaterally

Mtl JP 16:26 GMT December 7, 2020

yes that call was planned / announced.

I give low odds of some blinding breakthrough

GBP (1.3340-ish) may pop some more IF they announce some extension yet again , potentially right up to Th's summit

Readig for a pounce on a downdraft

lakewood jjlkwd 16:15 GMT December 7, 2020
Dec 7

Day of Infamy

dc CB 16:03 GMT December 7, 2020
Dec 7
no one really 'remembers' this date anymore, but it is the date of the first 'Treachery from the Far East' that 'dragged the 'engine of democracy', into the conflagration. 1941

london red 15:48 GMT December 7, 2020

internal mkt bill vote begins from today thru wednesday

refinitiv link

london red 15:43 GMT December 7, 2020

boris and ursula said to be in secret chat at top of hour

Mtl JP 15:41 GMT December 7, 2020

GBP 1.3310ish
I am bearish on this political puppy. (inside its still prevailing uP trend)
Sub 1.3225 / 1.32 would be - for me - exciting.

Res around 1.3350

Mtl JP 15:14 GMT December 7, 2020

EURO 1.2147
- ECB makes annoucement
- EU summits (on its budget; hungary and poland rebels)

It is not an impossibility for lagarde and her gang to surprise! players

Res 1.2180
Sup 1.2080/78

I am leary atm, but still prefer buying opps

Hk Ab 15:11 GMT December 7, 2020
Quiet mission here with S/L

PAR 15:04 GMT December 7, 2020
Family Trump
Despite being convinced he won the election it looks like the Family Trump is on its way to FLORIDA.

USA ZEUS 15:02 GMT December 7, 2020
John Bland R.I.P.

Tragic loss. Kind pure soul. Great contributor and mentor.
Deepest condolences. RIP

Mtl JP 14:51 GMT December 7, 2020
John Bland R.I.P.

John Bland - a gentleman.
Never selfish, always kind. These are memories you leave behind.

With heartfelt sympathy.

FW CS 14:50 GMT December 7, 2020
stop run Eur
The stop run Jay mentioned happened overnight. Is that low enuf? I would think Euro would be down on uncertainty over brexit and the ECB. Bigger story is $ weakness

london red 14:50 GMT December 7, 2020

viies, if no deal it will happen overnight. and then, personally think from parity-1.05 worth buying solid uk assets on good yields - youll benefit 3 times over - yield capital appreciation and fx effect.

Tallinn viies 14:22 GMT December 7, 2020
personally I think... whatever the solution is eurgbp need to go higher. UK economy weakest currently in the oecd world. they need weaker currency to get things going. and as people can not travel, they do not feel poor either with weak currency.

Tallinn viies 14:20 GMT December 7, 2020
for eurgbp I think downside targets 0.8500-.8800 area and upside 1.0000
should cover I guess

london red 14:15 GMT December 7, 2020

presently the eu says wednesday is the last day. they have their summit 10/11 so that makes sense for them as they also need to ratify it in all eu parliaments.this will take weeks if not months. the uk has only itself to deal with and can let things slide longer. the eu has said wednesday, will they let it run on? they have form for it. i feel they are quite keen to either not be seen as the ones that kicked out the uk, or they are desperate for a deal. if no deal hits during mkt hours, it will be quite choatic. so its bposs this drags on until the weekend and if theres no progress by then, its a no deal sunday night. maybe.

Israel MacroMicro 14:10 GMT December 7, 2020

life must go on also while we feel sad

Red, what is the timing for that script of yours regarding GBP?
period I mean, from now and approximate duration.

PAR 14:02 GMT December 7, 2020
Always buy a low opening on WallStreet as that implies a high close.

That's the way algos think?

PAR 14:00 GMT December 7, 2020
The show must go on.

On the other hand, there are plenty of countries who do a huge amount of business with Europe without being in the European Union.

Maybe the UK could join that club. E.g USA, China, Turkey, Rusland and many others.

So a no-deal Brexit basically is not such a big deal.

Also maybe the UK is not the last country that leaves the European Union. It looks like there are plenty of other exit candidates.

london red 13:46 GMT December 7, 2020

for eurgbp i see parity-1.05 or at least i will be happy buying sterling there. make of that what you will. for cable more tricky. depends on how much the eurusd falls as eurgbp and the eurusd will give you the cable rate. but for arguments sake if eurgbp at parity and euro falls to 115 then cable must be 115 also. it cannot be anything else. if eurgbp is 1.05 and euro 115 then cable is around 109. the key thing to remember is that the trajectory of the eurusd fall will determine whether cable gets simply hammered or completely obliterated.

Zurich EG 13:38 GMT December 7, 2020

red, if no deal, do you expect 1.10-1.15, 1.15-1.20, or 1.20-1.25?

What about eurgbp? Do you see parity?

london red 12:16 GMT December 7, 2020

brexit:from RTE Tony Connelly
BREAKING: The EU’s chief negotiator has told MEPs that negotiations on a post-Brexit deal could continue until Wednesday but no further.

fwiw wed uk parliament votes on internal mkt bill. it is not compatible with a fta with the eu.

GVI Forex 12:08 GMT December 7, 2020
John Bland R.I.P.

Thank you for all the tributes to John and kind thoughts plus all the email sent to me. They are well appreciated and well earned.

Knowing John and his dedication to this forum that he helped create, I am sure he would want you to continue posting about the market.

With that said, please continue posting your thoughts and good wishes. I will be forwarding them to his family.

Hk Ab 11:35 GMT December 7, 2020
Close all 138.10 from above 140.....

PAR 10:50 GMT December 7, 2020
Poor dad, Rich dad
Just to put things into perspective or the rising wealth inequality in one chart: The average US worker must now work 141 hours to buy 1 share of the S&P 500. That's, of course, a fresh record. In the 1980s, it took less than 20 hours.

swiss frank 10:36 GMT December 7, 2020
John Bland

True enough DRS2... I suggest we find a time to have a virtual cheers to toast and honor John and all his accomplishments.

Minneapolis DRS2 09:48 GMT December 7, 2020
John Bland

I'd like to offer a somewhat contrarian view to all the understandably grief-stricken postings, and that is one of amazement and admiration.

This is a time when friends, coworkers and companions are fleeting. Even families don't often last 40 years. When's the last time you saw a married couple celebrate their silver or golden anniversaries? Hell, most people I know get divorced within 5 years.

After you are all done with the grief and condolences, perhaps you might consider a round of applause, either public or private. Anybody who can last for decades as a friend, a partner, a coworker or a fellow professional deserves respect.

PAR 09:47 GMT December 7, 2020
The right chart to start into the #ECB week: ECB rates priced negative out to near 2030, DB shows.

Gold Coast Martin 08:50 GMT December 7, 2020
John Bland
Sincerest condolences to John's family. The loss to the Global-view site will be irreplaceable...RIP

Richland QC Mailman 08:43 GMT December 7, 2020
John Bland R.I.P.

Sad day for all of us here.

Remembering John replying, actively engaging with us when social media was not even dominating the online space.

He will truly be missed.

Condolence to you Jay and to his family.

PAR 08:39 GMT December 7, 2020
John Bland R.I.P.

I express my sincere condolences to John's family and friends, wishing them lots of strength.

manila tom 08:31 GMT December 7, 2020
cable today
brexit no deal?

HK Kevin 08:03 GMT December 7, 2020
John Bland R.I.P.

John had lived his life to the fullest. RIP

Tallinn viies 07:59 GMT December 7, 2020
John Bland R.I.P.

R.I.P. John

Belgrade Knez 07:18 GMT December 7, 2020
John Bland R.I.P.

Thank you for all your effort and contribution you provided.

R.I.P. John

Johannesburg Herc 07:15 GMT December 7, 2020
John Bland R.I.P.

Like most of us here, we never got to meet John personally and yet he managed to achieve greatness by changing traders' trading prowess to beat the markets. John will be missed no doubt, but I am sure somewhere there is someone who will do him proud and I can think of one in particular.
May John's legacy continued to spread among the community here and wishing you continued success as a result.
My deepest condolences to his wife and 2 sons and to you too, Jay. May you have a long life.

haifa ac 06:05 GMT December 7, 2020
John Bland R.I.P.

Sad. Was it a peaceful death?! He seemed to be functional till his last moment. Was it sudden or expected?
As for you, Jay, I do not think running GVI can be done alone--so I hope for you ( and for us traders who think your forum is a treasure) that you have some apprentice who can try to fill John's shoes (tall task) and help you manage things here. The trouble with old age is that you keep losing your best friends and there is no replacement. I am praying for both John and you.

makassar alimin 05:03 GMT December 7, 2020
RIP John

Truly sad and big loss. Deepest condolences to his family and friends. Rest in peace, John Bland. Thank you for your hard work and legacy through out all these years. I have been a member of GV since my first time trading nearly 20 years ago and John has been a great friend and truly showing his calmness and leadership when the forum needed some policing. We will miss you.


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