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Forex Forum Archive for 12/11/2020

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dc CB 19:54 GMT December 11, 2020

US Today:

Following a month-long rise in COVID-19 cases in New York City, Gov. Andrew Cuomo moved to shut down indoor dining indefinitely starting on Monday, dealing a major blow to the NYC hospitality industry as it goes into the winter months.

NYC Office Space For Rent Hits Highest Level Since 2003 As Goldman Flees For Florida
“All the banks, insurance companies and hedge funds are considering options.”

New York Must Raise Taxes Regardless Of Whether It Receives Federal Relief, Gov. Cuomo Says
“I believe we’re going to have to raise taxes, at the end of the day, in any event. The question is, how much in tax?”
and for the inevitable MTL JP question: 'how do I make pips out of that'

two fig out what to do and why.
SLG---mostly NYC Offfice Bldgs.

good weekend --- QuadWitch next week and last full week of trading before the Canceled Holidays

Mtl JP 17:01 GMT December 11, 2020

GBP 1.3191
haha that is DOwn from ~1.3218 since my 16:46 post
glory to g-v

dc CB 16:57 GMT December 11, 2020

fun with covers


lakewood jjlkwd 16:53 GMT December 11, 2020

from a pure technical standpoint gbp weekly chart has lows being supported by 10ma and 200ma... besides a triple top at 1.35 ...trendline from 1.14 low as well.

dc CB 16:53 GMT December 11, 2020

haifa ac 10:00 GMT

You failed to recognize that thiis is With the Trend ---- as I noted earlier the Trend is IRONY.

Time named Biden and Harris PERSON of the Year....the headline is singular in together they are equiv to a Single PERSON.

Mtl JP 16:46 GMT December 11, 2020

sans commentaire
Boris Johnson and the EU agree on something at last:
‘No-deal’ Brexit is likely
- MarketWatch

PAR 16:44 GMT December 11, 2020
Why Americans are optimistic?

S&P revises outlook on NY State to NEGATIVE.

dc CB 16:40 GMT December 11, 2020
Why Americans are optimistic?

because. thanks to lock-U-down cancel it dictums, you can buy a frozen turkey for 59cents a pound, marked down from $2.49 (pre Thanksgiving price). almost free food. (eat before 6/21)

PAR 16:19 GMT December 11, 2020
Why Americans are optimistic?

Fake news winter wonderland.

HK Kevin 16:15 GMT December 11, 2020

Stop profit at 1.2223.
HK Kevin 15:47 GMT 12/11/2020
Short 1.3255 for back to 1.3180

haifa ac 16:04 GMT December 11, 2020
Why Americans are optimistic?

"call that "safe"?"

Yes/ This is the only place on earth where I can DEFEND myself. Never Again means--NEVER AGAIN!

Johannesburg Hercs 16:00 GMT December 11, 2020
Why Americans are optimistic?

Without any disrespect, you choose to live inside the lion's mouth that wants to devour Israel all the time and call that "safe"?
I pray for your country that is the bastion of the Christian religion and for her safety.
Shabbat shalom.

haifa ac 15:50 GMT December 11, 2020
Why Americans are optimistic?

Because, when all is said and done--America is still the best plae on earth for most young people.
No other country in recent history had better founding fathers than America. (even tho as a Jew--Israel is safer for me.)

Hk Ab 15:49 GMT December 11, 2020
Can I keep these gbp for 1.5-1.6? LOL

PAR 15:48 GMT December 11, 2020
Why Americans are optimistic?

Guess all those soft economic opinion polls are manipulated like never before.

HK Kevin 15:47 GMT December 11, 2020

Short 1.3255 for back to 1.3180

Mtl JP 15:43 GMT December 11, 2020
Why Americans are optimistic?

because "U.S. wholesale prices edged up just 0.1% in November with the economic disruption from the pandemic continuing to suppress demand and keeping inflation at extremely low levels."

PAR 15:22 GMT December 11, 2020
Why Americans are optimistic?
U.S. Renters Could Owe $70 Billion

By January, when the federal eviction moratorium expires, 11.4 million households in the U.S. might be more than three months behind in their rent, or $6,000 each.

Between past due rent, late fees and unpaid utility bills, Americans may collectively owe $70 billion by January, when the current federal eviction moratorium is set to expire.

Estimates for the nation’s total rent shortfall on Jan. 1 range in the tens of billions of dollars, potentially exceeding the amount of emergency rental assistance that Congress may or may not deliver over the next few weeks. If lawmakers fail to act, the New Year could trigger a long-feared disaster — an avalanche of evictions during the dead of winter, as the pandemic rages.

london red 15:19 GMT December 11, 2020

the left in his party and part of the opposition. the deadline breach is being pushed by the germans i suspect as they have a lot to lose if tariffs and a crashed sterling come into play. all there exports become then on average 15-20% more expensive. thats a big deal. the german approach has always been dont lose first, then build from that. very boring, but steady. here they will fight to the end. boris isnt able to walk away as he may not survive it at home, but he is able to go back with no deal if time runs out and they havent got anywhere. there is little room for an extension in the uk, its something the irish have mentioned since they are the ones to go under the bus, being closest to the uk and in etrms of trade relations.

Mtl JP 15:02 GMT December 11, 2020

red by "domestic political pressure" u mean UK domestic political pressure on boris ?

Belgrade Knez 14:50 GMT December 11, 2020

'Few more days beyong Sunday!'

seems like any new dead line will be postponed until agreement has been achieved!

london red 14:49 GMT December 11, 2020

as said earlier the eu is pushing on the sunday dealine to give the uk time to change its mind. they are hoping domestic political pressure will force boris to flip. they cant compromise their position so its all they have, hoping the other side folds. but what is on offer for the uk is very poor. they wont die from it, but only survive. no deal is a risk of severe illness, but also the chance that it ouperforms the eu. with the bare bones deal, their is only underperformance on the table.

Kl Shawn 14:43 GMT December 11, 2020

Closed long from 13190 now at 13220. Enough for today.

GVI Forex 14:34 GMT December 11, 2020
How to Trade a Political Forex Market

I wrote this article six years ago and it is still relevant in today’s forex market, especially in the current politically driven GBP currency.

I define a “political market” as one that is being driven by events other than economic and monetary policy. Some may call it crisis trading but I prefer the term “political markets” as it covers positive as well as negative events although the latter tends to be the more dominant. Political markets can see some significant forex market and other global markets moves so the question is how do you trade them?

How to Trade a Political Forex Market

Hk Ab 14:28 GMT December 11, 2020
Some very good luck today......

Will close all by day close

GVI Forex 14:25 GMT December 11, 2020

German Foreign Minister says discussions on Brexit will not fail due to the fact we might need a few days more beyond Sundat.



PAR 14:20 GMT December 11, 2020

The Brits fish in British waters.

The Europeans fish in European waters.

Brits and Europeans fish together in international waters.

Like in the kindergarten. Don't tough each other's toys.

PAR 13:20 GMT December 11, 2020
PPT doing great job today.

PPT protecting all technical levels.

Israel MacroMicro 13:17 GMT December 11, 2020

hk ab 12:55 GMT December 11, 2020
gbp: Reply
buy anything under 1.3170 for day trade.



Mtl JP 13:01 GMT December 11, 2020

GBP 1.3166
technical S at 1.31

hk ab 12:55 GMT December 11, 2020
buy anything under 1.3170 for day trade.

Amazing Trader Reviews 12:47 GMT December 11, 2020 Reply   

'Amazing Trader Review...'

london red 12:36 GMT December 11, 2020

sterling should fall on deal. this is expected and its falling v slowly. besides it is not no deal yet. in any case uk will want sterling low. a 10-15% decline is welcomed. cpi is on its knees right now well below their tgt.
what is interesting is news is slightly better yet sterling falling. this tells me may are now realising they are badly positioned and getting out.
boris just on wires now saying no likely

hk ab 12:32 GMT December 11, 2020
load more now at 1.3168

hk ab 12:30 GMT December 11, 2020
new game, buy here, s/l 1.3130.

NY JM 12:23 GMT December 11, 2020

CBs intervene when markets are deemed disorderly or the pace is too fast. They no longer intervene to defend specific levels. It's called smoothing.

Tallinn viies 11:50 GMT December 11, 2020
ECB pushing more money to markets...
BIS doesnt matter :)

The BIS Issues A Dire Warning: "We Are Moving From The Liquidity To The Solvency Phase Of The Crisis"

london red 11:44 GMT December 11, 2020

no intervening at all. they will probably do nothing if it falls 10% as long as orderly. they dont want a higher pound.
fwiw looks like dealine of sunday is slipping, sterling my rebound a bit on back of that. although differences between sides as wide as ever.

Singapore SC 11:39 GMT December 11, 2020

Do you think boe is intervening now?

kl shawn 11:11 GMT December 11, 2020

buy 13190, for 13230-40

GVI Forex 10:37 GMT December 11, 2020

Assume the BOE and perhaps the ECB will have all hands on deck at the Monday opening in case of a GBP freefall.

haifa ac 10:00 GMT December 11, 2020


Mtl JP 09:26 GMT December 11, 2020

EURO 1.2130
for EURO to go higher the yellow R line needs to hold
which I am expecting

hk ab 09:10 GMT December 11, 2020
Don't forget that Wfak may surface to claim "1797 reached".....

though after a week......

Tallinn viies 09:04 GMT December 11, 2020
eurusd hourly 200 hour sma around 1,2105/10. guess this will hold today. TARGET previous week high at 1,2177.

hk ab 09:03 GMT December 11, 2020
whipsaw starts.

TAke profit 1.3225 and place limit buy again 1.3205.

Do it repeatedly.

hk ab 08:58 GMT December 11, 2020
lots of monies have parked into aussie, kiwi and cad this week.

london red 08:57 GMT December 11, 2020

fs, always poss but read the headlines. its hope simple chance that remains and nothing else. uk will not give up chance to do state aid. they are printing billions for covid and will print billions for brexit to give to their own firms. they do want want french and germans bidding for those contracts as required by eu law. uk will build buold build nxt year. this is why buying sterling after mark down and uk stocks make sense. many will be below pre vaccine levels next week. but not for long!

hk ab 08:56 GMT December 11, 2020
1.3205 also kicked in.

Israel MacroMicro 08:50 GMT December 11, 2020

personally, I am waiting for LDN close time and will reassess how to enter into the weekend. maybe I will decide to stay sidelined

using GBP/CHF for guidance

london red 08:50 GMT December 11, 2020

viies, vols are going to be rising all day. billions need to be trnasferred to eu banks

Tallinn viies 08:48 GMT December 11, 2020
currently eurgbp O/N stradlle 10 pips higher.

kl fs 08:48 GMT December 11, 2020

constant bombardment of nodeal news and indications and cable is still above 1.32? maybe a surprise deal on weekend and cable will be above 1.40 on monday

london red 08:46 GMT December 11, 2020

ino deal is happening. its already done. they just dont know it yet. uk banks and housebuilders dwn another 4%. follow the money.

Tallinn viies 08:45 GMT December 11, 2020
EU Official says the "Situation is difficult. Main obstacles remain. Probability of a no deal is higher than of a deal.", Guardian's Boffey

hk ab 08:44 GMT December 11, 2020
Damn, 1.3205 buy limit not hit.

hk ab 08:43 GMT December 11, 2020
I am also seeing Yuan going back to 6.7 or even 7.0......

kl fs 08:42 GMT December 11, 2020

wfak is still waiting for 1790?

hk ab 08:40 GMT December 11, 2020

I trade, but I don't love the trade, same as direction.

Go with the charts................maybe follow the "contra" indicator as well..... LOL

kl fs 08:36 GMT December 11, 2020

ab, suddenly no interest on gold anymore? why?

Israel MacroMicro 08:31 GMT December 11, 2020


why not wait bit more for weak bodies get a shake and weak hands getting broken?

hk ab 08:27 GMT December 11, 2020

stop 1.3170

hk ab 08:26 GMT December 11, 2020
no one buy?
ok, i got some in 1.3235, low leverage.

london red 08:25 GMT December 11, 2020

euro is going higher next year as us wants to trash its currency so any big falls brexit related on euro can be bought. 115-116 dream levels. reason eurgbp cannot just open and fall is because hundreds of billions of pounds must be be sent to european subs as banks will be asset light in eu once uk is out. this happens in case of no deal. really it should have already happened but markets were convinced a full package would get done. but looks like opposite and no deal. not only that, they cannot seem to agree on emeregency no deal terms so that planes and people can keep moving since the eu wants fishing to stay as is for a year.

hk ab 08:25 GMT December 11, 2020
Just the same situation but opposite direction,

GBP will hit hard back up to 1.4 first and then 1.5-1.6.......

By Boris sudden surrender?........

Tallinn viies 08:18 GMT December 11, 2020
I do not touch eurgbp today and monday. risk amplitude is too big for me. I still remember brexit vote day. 800 pips move during the night.
just wondering how to play with eurusd during eurgbp moves.
as option volatilities cheap there.

aslo we have FED on wednesday. they want to start take some money back from markets as I uderstand. first hints may come.

Israel MacroMicro 08:15 GMT December 11, 2020

halal chickens everyone :)

london red 08:12 GMT December 11, 2020

if no deal will open between 95 and 98 and likely go to parity. it may stretch as far as 1.05 depending on how much panic there is but parity to 1.05 represents a good level to buy sterling. you may not see it in your life again.

Tallinn viies 08:10 GMT December 11, 2020
complicated situation with eurgbp...
sunday evening opening price may come few hundreds points away from friday close.
monday will be grazy.

london red 08:05 GMT December 11, 2020

viies, investment bankers are still non believers. only yest jpm was still at 60% for a deal. the price may reflect a can kick element or they are deluded.

Israel MacroMicro 07:46 GMT December 11, 2020

0.7635 holding
0.7565 selling

mistype, now fixed :)

PAR 07:12 GMT December 11, 2020
Nine-fold Risk On
1. FDA to approve Corona vaccine

2. Weak dollar boosting US exports and commodity prices

3. Strong Euro boosting German consumer sentiment and European
buying power.

4. More fiscal stimulus all over the world

5. More monetary stimulus all over the world

6. Unseen demand for BlackRock's ETFs

7 Unseen demand for US IPO's

8 Unseen M&A activity worldwide

9 Tariif & Corona President Trump leaving the White House

Tallinn viies 07:03 GMT December 11, 2020
talking about eurgbp then option desks finally take this last date (this sunday) as a final decision day I guess.
overnight straddle costs 110 bid and 165 offer. at least in my system. basically if you think eurgbp moves more than 165 pips before monday 10 am in NYC then you can buy straddle. if you think
eurgbp moving less than 110 pips you can sell it and make money.

is short if to calculate via option market then range until monday 10 am in NYC would be 0,8960 - 0,9290. with mid price a little less.

Israel MacroMicro 06:55 GMT December 11, 2020

trading wise for the (very) short term, I see 0.7735 holding
selling 0.7665 and above today with 15 pips fast rides with a portion, and the rest for low 0.76's

good luck

Tallinn viies 06:16 GMT December 11, 2020
euro very bullish. took out today previous day high again. minimum target today 1,2177 previous week high.if taken next level 50 pips higher. keep buying on dips. previous day low should contain all downside attempts.

Israel MacroMicro 05:39 GMT December 11, 2020

yes, I agree with you

the meaning was about stealing few chickens now with healthy extra beefy sized trades :)

Hk Ab 05:34 GMT December 11, 2020

MM, you are F-ing wrong, I have been buying aud since .55 handle, wanna see my trade log of that god position? And audjpy as well :)

I still see this leg to .8.

Eur is seeing return from 1.23 now. Though was wrong on one position short 1.196

Israel MacroMicro 05:16 GMT December 11, 2020

but you are 101 lots short since 0.7560/70 :)

dc CB 04:36 GMT December 11, 2020
The Trend

Rupert, Rupert, Rupert....WHAT do you have to say about this.

China’s Ministry of Commerce announced Thursday that it will impose temporary anti-subsidy duties on Australian wine imports starting December 11.

“Starting Friday, importers of Australian wine are required to pay anti-subsidy duty deposits ranging from 6.3 to 6.4 percent,” the ministry said in a statement posted to its website on December 10, the state-run China Global Television Network (CGTN) reported.

dc CB 03:43 GMT December 11, 2020
The Trend

IRONY caption CONTEST----win a Betcon---sent to ur Acount---how mcuh U bet, lots.

Entry too beet.
"We sold it to that guy in the Mao jacket.
That'll go down well'

Nixon opened China --- THEN

dc CB 03:22 GMT December 11, 2020
The Trend
Unfortunately the smartest and the highest paid Teachers of the Children of the Smarties, are 'too f^9in' too stupid to realize that They are the butt of the Irony.

Case in point. If a White Dean of the Whiteyist(see SDS take over of the entire campus 1970s ...Estudentee 'peacefull demonstrators'---captured doing it with the cutting edge techno ---16mm and 8mm film cams....the FBI manned the 16mm.

So what's Up at Columbia Today????

I link you to
Res ipsa loquitur – The thing itself speaks

“Free Speech Is Being Weaponized”: Columbia Dean and New Yorker Writer Calls For More Censorship

Is that your grandson??? Oh god yes WTF

Jonathan Turley

Hk Ab 01:18 GMT December 11, 2020
Aud is quietly marching towards .8 while everyone eying gbp and eur

Amazing Trader Reviews 00:26 GMT December 11, 2020 Reply   

'Amazing Trader Review...'


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