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Forex Forum Archive for 03/15/2020

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hk ab 23:57 GMT March 15, 2020
next could be the heart attack drop of $200.......

hk ab 23:53 GMT March 15, 2020
free gifts from heaven.

Tallinn viies 23:52 GMT March 15, 2020
Lagarde says NO TO FURTHER RATE CUTS as otherwise banks go down also. better to have banks in europe. they let FED to take care of the mess.

Mtl JP 23:41 GMT March 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS Fed 100bp cut

wondering mind = too much time on hands
not trading ?

AT Trader john 23:38 GMT March 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS Fed 100bp cut

I wonder if the Fed has just triggered another round of central bank rate cuts.

HK [email protected] 23:37 GMT March 15, 2020
The US has no corona problem, but large part of population with mental problems.
If they will run banana, god forbid what will happen.

AT Trader john 23:24 GMT March 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS Fed 100bp cut

The Fed Meeting & Press Conference This evening takes the place of the previously scheduled meeting for Wednesday this week (March 18).

hk ab 23:21 GMT March 15, 2020
3 themes:

Sell gold, buy dlr/jpy, sell all indices!

Israel MacroMicro 23:20 GMT March 15, 2020

yes red
seems like each zone and no matter the matrix is the titanic hitting the iceberg. not too rosy

Mtl JP 23:10 GMT March 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS Fed 100bp cut

next powel is going to be claiming that it is the market's reaction that is in-appropriate

AT Trader john 23:03 GMT March 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS Fed 100bp cut

Powell: negative interest rates not appropriate policy response.

london red 23:02 GMT March 15, 2020

they are absolutely $hitting themsleves. they what is happening in europe. if even just half of this happens in the us, there will be utter chaos. in europe everything has been stopped called off. folks already had no money, now they wont get paid. those that have a few bob are too bat$hit scared to go out. and no bank is funding a biz with no customers. a hedge fund in trouble maybe. a favour between friends. but not moms and pops coffee shop? forget it.

Hk Ab 23:00 GMT March 15, 2020
Sounds like an official announcement of deflation and depression commencement.

Israel MacroMicro 22:57 GMT March 15, 2020

summary: when clueless and central banking meet during a pandemic and insist on shaking hands and kisses. result maybe something between recession to depression

Livingston nh 22:55 GMT March 15, 2020

"unprecedented challenge'' - typical lack of historical perspective -- history didn't start yesterday

In last 3 decades we have had variations on the Epidemic theme - all BOGUS

Israel MacroMicro 22:54 GMT March 15, 2020

In his opening statement at the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, he explains that the central bank has taken a number of actions, including cutting its benchmark rate by 100 basis points, to support the economy "as we weather disruptions caused by the coronavirus."
He points out that the U.S. economy "came into this challenging period on a strong footing.
U.S. banks "are strong and have high levels of capital and liquidity," he said.
The actions will foster "a more rigorous return to normal" once the effects of the disease run its course, said.
Inflation "will likely be restrained." But it's difficult to say how severe and how long the effects of the disease will have on the economy.
"Credit markets have tightened, he noted. "Several import financial markets including market for treasury securities have become stressed."
6:50 PM: Inflation will move down "a bit further," Powell said.
Dollar Index falls 1.0% to 97.79.
Update at 6:45 PM ET: The Fed doesn't see negative policy rates as an "appropriate" policy for the U.S

Mtl JP 22:52 GMT March 15, 2020

he just said - at the presser - that nega-rate in US would be in-appropriate and same time announced that there ll be no wednesday rate meeting

Israel MacroMicro 22:51 GMT March 15, 2020

Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, State Street, and Wells Fargo, in a statement via the Financial Services Forum, agreed to temporarily suspend share buybacks for the remainder of 1Q and through 2Q 2020.
"The decision on buybacks is consistent with our collective objective to use our significant capital and liquidity to provide maximum support to individuals, small businesses, and the broader economy through lending and other important services," the group wrote, citing the COVID-19 pandemic as an "unprecedented challenge''

london red 22:42 GMT March 15, 2020

powell says unclear what virus effects will be after Q2 yet takes rates to zero. suspect he is v aware.

Hk Ab 22:31 GMT March 15, 2020
Buy some 106

london red 22:23 GMT March 15, 2020

s&p down a health 4% but would be more comfortable to see under 2525 (in way is initially 2550/52). below 2500 tests now key 2400.
mkt has now lost all gains post trump speech. still more work to do.

london red 22:17 GMT March 15, 2020
suppose have to get used to negative carry from short cable possies. now that feels strange.
euro. db in play on clearing 11222. an early warning signal thru 11208 maybe. usually caveat of needing to clear the second hurdle would apply. below 11125/30 and MaMi you may get your wish. usd shortage isn't going away and this is main hurdle for euro surging higher.

london red 22:13 GMT March 15, 2020

fed? i wonder what they are going to do wed.
shot their load too early. cant go negative as that will kill financial sector. europe, despite being on its knees, will look like a success compared to american financial sector if us rates go much under zero.

dc CB 22:07 GMT March 15, 2020

(bozo one-upmanship one display).

NYC Mayor closes schools thru April 20

Tallinn viies 21:48 GMT March 15, 2020
during 2008 panic times. eurusd moved 15% per month.
1000-2000 points per month was normal.
currently only 480 points per month. 2 weeks to go. enough time to make 1000 points.

Livingston nh 21:46 GMT March 15, 2020

Anybody seen my country -- a self inflicted wound

Minneapolis DRS2 21:42 GMT March 15, 2020
Focusing on basics in these trying times...even though price has shot up, prepare for a third attempt on EUR/USD 1.1050. It's too tempting a target, and with the masses demanding USD the funnymentals are certainly there.

Enjoy the upward spike while it lasts, but given recent activity it probably won't last very long.

AT Trader john 21:38 GMT March 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS Fed 100bp cut

Early Monday
DJ: +1985 fri
SP: +320.4 fri

2-yr 0.520% +3.1
Spread 10s-2s +41.0 (+32.6)

US: 0.930% +7.8
UK: 0.417% +0.8
DE: -0.539% +4.6

Spot Rate (Pivot Point)
EURUSD 1.1185 (1.1114)
GBPUSD 1.2395 (1.2404)
EURGBP 0.9025 (0.8950)
USDJPY 106.85 (107.10)

this week 1.1055-1.1493 (438) pips

fri: 1.1055-1.1221 (166)
thu: 1.1055-1.1333 (276)
wed: 1.1257-1.1367 (110)
tue: 1.1286-1.1459 (173)
mon: 1.1336-1.1493 (157)

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20-day avg: 1.1045
50-day avg: 1.1042
100-day avg: 1.1066
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dc CB 21:36 GMT March 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS Fed 100bp cut

Gov. Cuomo Declares "NYC Schools Will Close Early This Week", Says City Has 24 Hours To Formulate A Plan

NYC Mayor says 'every option on the table' when asked if considering complete shutdown of city + schools

(bozo one-upmanship one display).

imho- the Cut is useless in the face of this.

Tallinn viies 21:35 GMT March 15, 2020
it seems this week white house press conference before every market open and close.

GVI Forex 21:34 GMT March 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS Fed 100bp cut

The US has cut interest rates to almost zero and launched a $700bn stimulus programme in a bid to protect the economy from the impact of coronavirus.

It is part of a co-ordinated action announced on Sunday in the UK, Japan, the eurozone and Switzerland.

Mtl JP 21:34 GMT March 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS Fed 100bp cut

john 21:25 - so ___ ?
what other scheme they'll come up with to maintain themselves "important" in the market ?

unlikely they ll go away on some prolonged holiday and let market finds equillibrium on its own

Tallinn viies 21:32 GMT March 15, 2020
oh dear...
FED sill didnt manage to wait until wednesday.
need to hope now that 0 interest rates heals infected.

Mtl JP 21:27 GMT March 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS Fed 100bp cut

yak is now CB's patting themselves on co-ordinated action

AT Trader john 21:25 GMT March 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS Fed 100bp cut

Trump praises surprise (timing) Fed rate cut. Now they have no rate cut ammo left.

Paris ib 21:21 GMT March 15, 2020
The European Union was never democratic and now we have martial law.

Get a bit of panic going and maybe no-one will notice.


Mtl JP 21:20 GMT March 15, 2020
still think Trump's raving is insane ?

what about the FED gang's insanity index ?

HK Kevin 21:20 GMT March 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS Fed 100bp cut

Jerome Powell did not disappoint the market. Covered my short USD/JPY too early minutes before the FED announcement

Mtl JP 21:18 GMT March 15, 2020
support economy ... rofl
they must think folks swallow their mushroom feeding !

AT Trader john 21:17 GMT March 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS Fed 100bp cut

Fed vote 9-1.

AT Trader john 21:11 GMT March 15, 2020
BREAKING NEWS Fed 100bp cut
FED CUTS rates 100bps to 0%. Also more QE announced. New Fed Funds target range 0-0.25%

Mtl JP 21:11 GMT March 15, 2020
Winners and Losers

MaMi 18:27 maybe coz my current priority focus is 16:39
everything else, really, is just circumstance

GVI Forex 21:10 GMT March 15, 2020
Gap openings

Israel MacroMicro 21:03 GMT March 15, 2020
Winners and Losers

YOU cannot be played
YOU look for facts

Paris ib 20:58 GMT March 15, 2020
Winners and Losers

Why were Italian petrol wholesalers told to stock pile fuel (as in wartime) before the Wuhan Coronavirus was even being reported on? We are being played.

HK Kevin 20:58 GMT March 15, 2020
NZ Rate Cut
RBNZ cut rate by 75 basis point to 0.25%

Paris ib 20:56 GMT March 15, 2020
Winners and Losers

The people calling for these extreme measures are lunatics. They got them through here overnight without a whimper of protest. What's next on the agenda?

Thank god for Trump. If that makes me a red neck so be it.

Who, I wonder, is behind the orchestrated panic mongering in the press? Who planned this?

dc CB 20:51 GMT March 15, 2020
Winners and Losers

just trying to fill in how fast the attitudes are changing here in the US...the most Liberal leaders...NY Gov Cuomo and NYC mayr DeBlassio, and the west coast Washinton state Gov...are now in the forefront calling for Lock-It Down.

3 mos ago they were screaming 'xenophobe, racist, white supremisist' open borders, free medical care for all. Illegal immigrants should be able to Vote.

Now they want The Feds to step in --- basically because they themselves don't have a plan or a clue about how to even form a plan. For four years they have ridden the "OrangeManBad" No Where

Paris ib 20:44 GMT March 15, 2020
Winners and Losers

Trump for the most part has been restrained and sensible. Be grateful for that and let him have his 10cents of publicity.

The guys you have to worry about appear sensible and well dressed and then announce lock down and introduce economic chaos. Ask yourself what these guys are going to do for an encore? They have just wrecked the economy. What next?

dc CB 20:42 GMT March 15, 2020
Winners and Losers

Mexico is considering closing its border with the US due to Corona
Virus. the threat if from the North...the Mex gov says...the virus crossing over from California.

Mtl JP 20:39 GMT March 15, 2020
Winners and Losers

Classic, priceless Trump's insane raving

Paris ib 20:38 GMT March 15, 2020
Winners and Losers

Sorry CB but the situation in the media is already out of control. We have lock down, economic shut down, check points and restrictions on travel.. and that is spreading and intensifying based mostly on media hysteria and misreporting, together with politicians who are obviously following a game plan we have no information on. The economic consequences will be catastrophic and that's if we all come to our senses now. I don't think that is happening.

From where I am standing the global financial market and economic situation looks fragile. Throw martial law and hysteria about a virus into the mix and the impact will be felt for decades. Not in a good way. I know we can't necessarily close this down now but inflaming this is not in anyone's interests. gl gts

dc CB 20:35 GMT March 15, 2020
Monday Amazing Trader 16 Mar 2020

Dow Indicated 1,000 Lower Ahead Of Futures Open

dc CB 19:31 GMT March 15, 2020
Winners and Losers

Keep listening to ZeroHedge.... try to make money off this. Good luck with that.

real useful cmmt

Israel MacroMicro 19:20 GMT March 15, 2020
Winners and Losers

ib - special offer for you

€0.99 per day and I provide you with white flag to wave against hysteria army. I gave up officially to having conversation based of facts with them.

just recording people when they are doing the hysteria gigs. month ahead I will play to them the recordings. I think 98% to deny it's them and 2% probably to be able to take a joke on themselves.

Paris ib 19:12 GMT March 15, 2020
Winners and Losers

CB we have Europe wide lock down because of 19 deaths attributed to Coronavirus?

The press is a sick institution.

Yeah, go ahead, call for more Martial Law, that's where we're going.
First they came for the socialists,
and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.
Then they came for the trade unionists,
and I did not speak out— because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews,
and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—
and there was no one left to speak for me.

Keep listening to ZeroHedge.... try to make money off this. Good luck with that.

Coronavirus in France

dc CB 19:06 GMT March 15, 2020
Winners and Losers


in the Netherlands, over half are reportedly under 50 years old.

"Today there are between forty and fifty corona patients in critical condition on Dutch intensive care units. “More than half of those patients are under fifty years old. There are also young people. "" That says chairman of the Dutch Association for Intensive Care (NVIC) Diederik Gommers, in an interview with this site."

Not just those OL people ----woops Experts wrong again

dc CB 18:52 GMT March 15, 2020
Winners and Losers

another useful go girl...really useful info....
Sunday on MSNBC’s “AM Joy,” Washington Post opinion writer Jennifer Rubin argued there would be fewer Democrat coronavirus deaths because they are adhering to suggestions offered by experts and the media.

In contrast, she argued Republicans are skeptical and more susceptible to death from the coronavirus.
“[T]here is a particular cruelty, irony that it is their core viewers, the Republican older viewers, who are the most at risk,”

Israel MacroMicro 18:30 GMT March 15, 2020
Global Martial Law


if I am a nation, the last thing I want nationalise is you :)

Israel MacroMicro 18:27 GMT March 15, 2020
Winners and Losers

Macron's stupidity and disconnect

how you missed that brute?

Mtl JP 18:27 GMT March 15, 2020
Winners and Losers

in french:
"«Je suis garant de la sécurité, de la santé de nos concitoyens mais également de la vie démocratique de notre pays», a également voulu rappeler Emmanuel Macron.

- Le Figaro

Paris ib 18:26 GMT March 15, 2020
Global Martial Law

What Martial Law can mean:

1. Confiscation of Firearms
2. Curfew and/or restriction of movement
3. Restriction of Free Speech
4. Detained or Imprisoned at Will
5. Protests and gatherings banned
6. Confiscation of property

And Italy sets the example after the death of 1200 "attributed" to Coronavirus in a nation where a bad flu season can kill 60,000.

Nary a peep of protest.

What's next? After the shut down: nationalisation on a grand scale... just for your protection, you understand, and to ensure essential supplies.

What all the anti-Brexit crowd fail to understand is that there are no functioning national parliaments in the EU at this point, the EU parliament is merely a show parliament with no legislative ability. All EU decisions are made by the European Commission. Decisions made at that level automatically abrogate national laws.

So that's where we are right now.


Mtl JP 18:19 GMT March 15, 2020
Winners and Losers

winners and losers
Reuters / Pascal Rossignol

I could not find what the alleged guarantee actually is.

Israel MacroMicro 18:06 GMT March 15, 2020
Global Martial Law

Fauci says Americans must be prepared to hunker down

Americans must be ready for more drastic steps to slow the march of the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S., Dr. Anthony Fauci said Sunday. - Bloomberg

Paris ib 18:01 GMT March 15, 2020
Global Martial Law

"We are in a war time scenario"


Meanwhile back at the farm.... regarding the Nato war games on Russia's border "it is increasingly unclear if the large-scale war games will take place at all...."

The pandemic has it's uses.

With 3 dead in Norway attributed to the Coronavirus (I don't have details) Norway’s armed forces cancelled the Cold Response military exercise on Wednesday that was meant to gather 15,000 NATO and allied soldiers.

Austria takes the biscuit, banning gatherings of more than 5 people.

Safe havens? We will have short term spikes and panics before we get a real sense of where we are going with this.

Government debt markets are an obvious area of concern. I note that the UK has by far the best time frame as far as duration. The U.S. has probably the worst: very short term, lots of roll overs and a huge exposure to foreign investors and foreign CBs.

Martial Law extends its reach

Mtl JP 17:45 GMT March 15, 2020
Global Martial Law

winners and losers
Coronavirus: Isolation for over-70s 'within weeks'

Coronavirus: Elderly to be 'shielded' as PM seeks to equip NHS

..."to stay at home for an extended period"...
one might like to get a bit more detail on the meaning of "extended period": four months

Also -
- requisition hotels and other buildings as temporary hospitals;
- the requisitioning of private hospitals as emergency hospitals;
- temporary closure of pubs, bars and restaurants

Trick is to figure out a profitable bet on how the market will react to all these
I am from the gov't and I have a plan (for you) headlines

writes Robert Peston

Mtl JP 17:21 GMT March 15, 2020
Monday Amazing Trader 16 Mar 2020

winners and losers
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin does not expect recession from the coronavirus & bbrg

But others, such as former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan Blinder and Gary Cohn, former White House economic advisor,

think the U.S. is already in a recession.

Mtl JP 17:03 GMT March 15, 2020
Global Martial Law

winners and losers
heil corona_V
one alleged crook chuckling and breathing little easier:
start of bibi's corruption trial now pushed out to at earliest May 24 (was to start on Tuesday)

AT Trader john 17:02 GMT March 15, 2020
Safe havens?

If it is possible the other party is even more unhinged!

Mtl JP 16:53 GMT March 15, 2020
Safe havens?

john 13:37 I dont understand why Trump has to beat up on Powell

consider it as kabuki theater,
alternately mushroom feeding

Mtl JP 16:39 GMT March 15, 2020
Safe havens?

winner or loser
asia open and "Trump's insane ravings"
On Friday, around 3:00pm, players responded absolutely unbridedly enthusiastically to "Trump's insane ravings" of releasing some $50 billion

The 60K Qtn is, seeing as asia was already out and not participating in the enthusiasm into NY close, will asia play katch-up OR "not to pay any attention" this evening ?


Jkt Abel 16:20 GMT March 15, 2020
Safe havens?

Safe haven maybe chf? Until swiss got rapid corona cases.....

Boston BR 13:51 GMT March 15, 2020
Safe havens?

Trump’s history is he does not take blame for his actions and looks for a scapegoat, even if he stretches the truth to do so.

His attack on Powell is unprecedented and misguided.

It stems from his preoccupation with the stock market.

AT Trader john 13:47 GMT March 15, 2020
Safe havens?

As for Powell he has stepped up to the plate and has been flooding the global financial markets with needed liquidity. What else can the Fed do? Interest rates are already virtually at zero. Negative rates are not called for and would probably be counter productive.

hk ab 13:45 GMT March 15, 2020
Safe havens?

In the past, safe heaven are those carry-trade currency.

With nowadays 0 to -ve interest rate, the currency being sold for risk apparently are euro, gbp and aud.

I do think a certain unwinding will be seen in the coming week.

Yen may be in the story of Olympiad cancellation and send them like toilet paper.

AT Trader john 13:37 GMT March 15, 2020
Safe havens?

I dont understand why Trump has to beat up on Powell. He (Trump) keeps touting the advantages of negative interest rates. Most thinking economists see them as a disaster.

I have to think Trump does not believe what he is saying and that threats to get rid of Powell are idle. Markets have learned not to pay any attention to Trump's insane ravings as well.

Israel MacroMicro 13:31 GMT March 15, 2020
Do technicals work?

of course
when you identify the time frame that is actually active

Mtl JP 13:25 GMT March 15, 2020
Safe havens?

Jeanna Smialek at The New York Times penned / typed a headline screaming that

Trump Says He Could Demote Fed Chair Powell, Risking More Market Turmoil

I did not see Trump talk about "Risking More Market Turmoil". That is an opinion that belongs Jeanna. It is a common problem of contemporary reporters who have problem distinguishing between just reporting things and not being able to resist adding the color of a biased opinion.

Because I not a reporter, IF I take only the first part of the headline - Trump Says He Could Demote Fed Chair Powell - I judge that Trump wants negative interest rates. (Altho I can not totally release the thought that it is the FED gang that wants nega-rates, and Trump is just a "false flag" from my mind)

To me some discussion about demotion or authority to fire jerome is not the material thing. Rather betting if nega-rates in US are coming is.

GVI Forex 13:17 GMT March 15, 2020
Do technicals work?
Another question:

Do traditional technicals work in the current market?

Israel MacroMicro 13:05 GMT March 15, 2020
Safe havens?

cash-CHF, corona-beer, condoms

jp did the B and did the C

Israel MacroMicro 13:02 GMT March 15, 2020
Global Martial Law

we are witnessing steps trying to solve a problem in manners that lead towards very long lasting problems.

from hysteria into long lasting depression as fact.
I guess it serves someone

Jkt Abel 12:03 GMT March 15, 2020
Global Martial Law

War? Are they stupid or what? Nah just another soap opera

Mtl JP 11:58 GMT March 15, 2020
Safe havens?

safe havens?

beans, bullets, band-aids

and toilet paper apparently

Paris ib 11:49 GMT March 15, 2020
Global Martial Law

Amassing troops on borders... not worried about the beer virus?

The war has started

Paris ib 11:33 GMT March 15, 2020
Global Martial Law

Nato exercises 'Defender of Europe' currently underway with troops being assembled on the Russian border.

Similar stuff on the border with Turkey.

Italian petrol distributors told to stockpile WAY before
news out of Wuhan. That only happens in wartime
or during similar emergencies.

GVI Forex 11:28 GMT March 15, 2020
Safe havens?
Question for the forum:

What currencies (if sny) do you think are safe havens?

Paris ib 09:15 GMT March 15, 2020
Global Martial Law

No need to worry if Indonesia's recent past is anything to go by: martial law coming straight up.

260 million people... and reported contagion stands at? Still if you aspire to lock down I'm sure the authorities will be more than happy to oblige. Do a little panic buying while you're at it.

Jkt Abel 08:52 GMT March 15, 2020
Global Martial Law

Swiss frank, how is situation in Switzerland?
Here in indonesia things are deteriorating rapidly and we are approaching moslem's ramadhan which can trigger massive outbreak. Cases jumped overnight to 117 now, by friday next week it could be 1000-2000 already

swiss frank 08:06 GMT March 15, 2020
Global Martial Law

Businesses allowed to stay open: Food and drink (not restaurants), pharmacies, medical, fuel, press, IT, Telecom, Tobacco sellers, pet food, and............. Hairdressers.

swiss frank 06:55 GMT March 15, 2020
Global Martial Law

Spain- Ditto. Fines of up to €30,000 for violation (leaving your place of residence without due cause for example).

Paris ib 06:39 GMT March 15, 2020
Global Martial Law

So Martial Law -

- restrictions on civilian movement
- shut down of everything deemed 'non-essential'
- touted government take over of 'essential' production

Who gets to define essential?

because of the 1.000 or so deaths 'attributed' to the virus in Italy, a nation where 70.000 deaths in a flu season is not unusual.

The use of cash has already been heavily restricted in most of Continental Europe. The control is almost complete. The Fascist take over is here.

Mtl JP 05:00 GMT March 15, 2020
Monday Amazing Trader 16 Mar 2020

It appears President Trump took c_V test.
It furthermore appears that he tested -ive.
- msm

dc CB 00:24 GMT March 15, 2020
Global Martial Law

and on the PBS NewHour Friday eve. Good going guy, good going. really helpful.

New York Times columnist David Brooks: “I feel a deep sense of anger that our government has responded so badly. And, frankly, it’s — this is what happens when you elect a sociopath as president, who doesn’t care, who’s treated this whole thing for the past month as if it’s about him, how do people like me?...


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