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Forex Forum Archive for 04/23/2020

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dc CB 23:58 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

WSJ does meat----cud be No Meat For You, soon.
April 23, 2020 6:10 pm ET

For chicken, where Costco specializes in boneless, skinless breasts that are 99% fat-free, the company is working with plants to temporarily supply those products for additional days each week, Mr. Lyons said.

‘We haven’t seen a situation in our lifetime where the industry has contracted as quickly as we have seen in the last month.’
— Will Sawyer, economist for agricultural lender CoBank

Walmart is buying more products ordinarily destined for restaurants, working to help convert plants used for food service to retail, as well as narrowing meat assortment to focus on the fastest-selling items such as basic steak cuts to simplify the supply chain, said a person familiar with the situation. Sales of vacuum-seal bags are also rising at Walmart, a sign shoppers are buying food they intend to preserve, this person said.

Grocers Hunt Meat as Coronavirus Hobbles Beef and Pork Plants

Mtl JP 21:54 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

Thursday SnP 500:
2,797.80 Change: -1.51 or -0.05%

Mtl JP 21:06 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

After sending some 100 military medic to help Quebec with catastrophic corona_V situation in old-age homes (Qc gov asked for a 1000), trudeau already seems to think it was a mistake and to have regrets : "In Canada, we shouldn't have soldiers taking care of seniors." - trudeau 23/04/2020

Mtl JP 21:01 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

lets see how this goes:
-
Georgia governor stands by move to ease restrictions despite Trump split

Trump: I 'disagreed strongly' with Georgia's reopening plan

Mtl JP 20:49 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

and so some procs and 2,300 cattle a day give out a sigh of relief ! altho I am not sure of how rosy life in the holding pens is

Mtl JP 20:33 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

EURO 1.0768
-
so puppy keeled some, but not nuff to take out march 1.0740 base from which it ran to 1.1146. IF they manage to chew thru 1.0740 then 1.0635 trgt (ytd low) opens up

dc CB 19:46 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

Food. BBG.
Tyson Foods Inc. said Thursday it was shutting its beef facility in Pasco, Washington, while team members undergo testing for Covid-19. That’s adding to an avalanche of news that’s hit in just the past day. Tyson closed two of its key pork plants. Case counts continued to mount, including in Canada, where industry groups are saying they’ll probably hold back some of what’s usually exported to the U.S. Meanwhile, the head of JBS SA, the world’s top meat producer, warned of shortfalls.

At least eight major U.S. meat facilities have seen halts in the space of a few weeks.

The Tyson plant in Washington produces enough beef in one day to feed four million people, according to the company. It’s one of the few facilities in the northwestern U.S., with capacity of 2,300 cattle a day.

Another Big Meat Plant Shutters With U.S. on Brink of Shortages

AT Trader john 19:06 GMT April 23, 2020
Friday Amazing Trader 24 April 2020

LATE Thursday
DJ: +38
SP: -1.5

2-yr 0.225% +1.4%
Spread 10s-2s +39.5 bps (+40.6 bps)

10-yr
US: 0.620% +0.1
UK: 0.295% +0.3
DE: -0.416% +0.5

EURUSD MACRO TREND: NEGATIVE
Spots (Prev day Pivot Pt)
EURUSD 1.0772 (1.0791)
GBPUSD 1.2344 (1.2356)
EURGBP 0.8721 (0.8738)
USDJPY 107.54 (107.64)

This Week 1.0897-1.0756 (141 pips)
thu: 1.0845-1.0756 (89)
wed: 1.0885-1.0803 (82)
tue: 1.0881-1.0817 (64)
mon: 1.0897-1.0842 (55)
fri: 1.0892-1.0813 (79)


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GVI Forex Blog 18:35 GMT April 23, 2020
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 23 April 2020
Reply   

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Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 23 April 2020

dc CB 18:35 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

NY Times
By Benedict Carey and James Glanz
April 23, 2020
Updated 12:10 p.m. ET

By the time New York City confirmed its first case of the coronavirus on March 1, thousands of infections were already silently spreading through the city, a hidden explosion of a disease that many still viewed as a remote threat as the city awaited the first signs of spring.

Dr. Vespignani said he and his research team warned officials of the silent spread, posting some of their early projections in mid-February. “We were talking to officials here, and it was the same reaction we got in Italy, in the U.K., in Spain,” Dr. Vespignani said. “They told me, ‘OK, that’s happening on your computer, not in reality.’ Look,” he added, “No one’s going to shut down a country based on a model.”

Hidden Outbreaks Spread Through U.S. Cities Far Earlier Than Americans Knew

AT Trader john 17:53 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

Bottom-line, no EU agreement reached by leaders.
SOURCE: newsquawk.com

london red 16:54 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

heres one for free back to 2845 before the close

swiss frank 16:54 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

Re Blankfein comment- Or will they?

london red 16:54 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

gods work.

dc CB 16:52 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

yup
and when did that start --- Oh you mean QE, well, when Hank Paulson(goldmanite)Treas Secy, Bill (DoRight)Dudley(goldmanite) at FRBNY, and Lloyd his-self as Chief O (the Vampire Squid) Goldman Sachs.

Thank god for 'demnita' of the FinPress. HIS-Story is whatever Him sez...no risk of questions asked.

london red 16:51 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

why halt the fooker. its barely just filled the gap

london red 16:50 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

gilead first trial for useless drug looking for a use kaput, hence spoos lower.
yep thats priced in too. staying abv 2800/2795 keeps upside in play

london red 16:43 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

CB, when you are printing to buy your own $hit it no longer matters if there are other buyers around

dc CB 16:41 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS


Lloyd Blankfein

@lloydblankfein

In finance, most surprising to me is that despite the trillions the US is adding to our budget deficit and national debt, investors (many foreign) will lend the US a virtually limitless supply of dlrs for .6 pct for 10 years.
808
10:39 AM - Apr 23, 2020

dc CB 16:28 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

NY noon updates

But by far the most interesting piece of information shared by Cuomo on Thursday was the outcome of a random surveillance test - the first of what's expected to be many rounds of random testing that the state will be conducting to help aid the response. Cuomo said that out of 3,000 people tested for COVID-19 antibodies, roughly 14% tested positive.

Even more alarming, that rate rose to 21.2% positive rate in NY.

"It changes the theories of what the death rate is," Cuomo explained.

Mtl JP 16:12 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

euro 1.0808 , hopefully, s/t and minor support (on 5 min bar)

london red 15:54 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

todays channel at 2845 is last bastion ahead of 2880/85. a break there tomorrow sees a test of 2934. if broken 3015/40

Mtl JP 15:51 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

or... slippiddy-dip sub 1.08 / 1.0790
would also please

Mtl JP 15:45 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

euro 1.0814
-
my current "x-mass wish" : some german hawk squawking cold water on (merkel's) debt mutualization

AT Trader john 15:35 GMT April 23, 2020
Friday Amazing Trader 24 April 2020
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Fri 24 Jan 2019
AA 07:00 UK- Retail Sales
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
A 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


dc CB 15:32 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

PAR 12:37 GMT 04/23/2020
A RECORD 26 MILLION AMERICANS

the US has lost 565 'jobs' for every confirmed Covid-19 death - 46,785

swiss frank 15:23 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

No was thinking more like an hour

Mtl JP 15:22 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

frank u have what .. 10 mins left for a pop ?

dc CB 15:20 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

WTI 18.13

my platform TOS run by TDAmeritrad/Schwab set the margin for Crude futures today $24,440/contract

swiss frank 15:11 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

Very tempting to come in here but i'm hoping for one last end of european day push for 50, 60, 70...

Mtl JP 15:08 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

euro 1.0830
short against 1.084x

swiss frank 14:55 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

Yes hopefully the algo reading headlines can use this merkel comment and a happy equity day to goose the eur back up to the 60-80 range to resell....

GVI Forex 14:19 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

EURUSD spikes on Merkel comments that response to virus must be huge.

Mtl JP 14:09 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

john 14:00 how do you qualify the U.S. New Home Sales ?

Mtl JP 14:05 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

on deck expectation:
new additional $480 billion help package, possibly this aft
-
also trudeau w/help to seniors, possibly before noon today

AT Trader john 14:00 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. New Home Sales March, 2019



ALERT
627K vs. 645K exp. vs. 764K(r 741k) prev.


New Residential Sales


AT Trader john 13:51 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

Services weak in the U.S., as elsewhere. However. U.S. Levels not as low.

AT Trader john 13:49 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. flash Markit Mfg & SVC PMI April 2020




ALERT
mfg: 36.9 vs. 38.3 exp. vs. 48.5 prev.
svc: 27.0 vs. 32.5 exp. vs. 39.8 prev.


Mtl JP 13:39 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

2831.77 next R (trgt)

Mtl JP 13:38 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

spx rocketing.. 2818

london red 13:27 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

JP, with the amount of debt they are going to need to sell, dont expect to see the 10 north of 1.4 for a long long time, they just wont be able to service it at higher levels. the only way u can have such high debt is with a subdued yield, otherwise they go bust.

Mtl JP 13:04 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

here is a contrast:
08:52 Mack-Cali has collected 96% of residential tenant rent for April, 90% of office rent - MarketWatch

Mtl JP 12:58 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

spx 2806.25 high sofar

Mtl JP 12:57 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

10 Year Treasury Note yield uP 0.001% to 0.627
Is that NOT how it should be when there is an "improvement" in the economy ? like a less than expected growth in unemployeds ?

Mtl JP 12:52 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

spx 2802.7
near R at 2806.75

london red 12:47 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

its v simple. any bad news is expected, priced in. while good news is always yet to be priced in. for example everyone will be utterly surprised that economies will be slowly opened up in the next few weeks and that will be a signal to take stocks abv 3k.

Mtl JP 12:46 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

yesty S&P 500 close: 2,799.31

lets see

Mtl JP 12:42 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

euro 1.0789 the high sofar.. and backing off atm

Sydney ACC 12:41 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

And that beats Australia's population.

PAR 12:37 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

A RECORD 26 MILLION AMERICANS SOUGHT UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS OVER THE LAST FIVE WEEKS, CONFIRMING THAT ALL THE JOBS CREATED DURING THE LONGEST EMPLOYMENT BOOM IN U.S. HISTORY WERE WIPED OUT IN ABOUT A MONTH

AT Trader john 12:35 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

Weekly Jobless Claims



ALERT
4427K vs: 4500K expected vs. 5245K (r 5505K)


Mtl JP 12:35 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

EURO 1.0788 up against st R at 1.08

Mtl JP 12:30 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

23/04/20 12:30 A US Weekly Jobless con: 4500 pre: 5245
---
4427K vs 4500K expected

Mtl JP 12:21 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

Thursday’s action could be telling, with initial jobless claims in the week ended April 18 likely to show an increase of at least 4 million people, with estimates ranging as high as 5.25 million, according to

the latest MarketWatch survey of economists.

Mtl JP 12:14 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

hope ium
-
08:02 Dow futures inch back as investors await report that could show total unemployed in U.S. tops 25 million - MarketWatch

Mtl JP 12:11 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

WTI $15.91
a nice ~13% gain (IF ... haha)

Mtl JP 11:49 GMT April 23, 2020


frank 09:37 I concur: sell pops while under 1.0840

Mtl JP 11:31 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020



DLR sentiment
heading into NY

Mtl JP 11:29 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

pointing the "next step" to folks such as justin "admirer of China's 'basic dictatorship" trudeau

Xi returns to his favorite hobby: crushing dissent - asia nikkei

As China took up coronavirus fight it also began investigating top police official

PAR 11:00 GMT April 23, 2020
ECB LAGARDE PONZI MAFIA
Reply   
Lagarde says debt bought directly from Eurozone governments may be illegal

Imho debt bought from BlackRock funds after those funds bought it directly from Eurozone governments is maybe not illegal but looks CRIMINAL instead.

london red 10:39 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

JP, remember re inflation they see what they want to see. they remove from baskets what was going up, replace with static or what was falling. ask your self what was cheaper 1,2,3 or 5 years ago? maybe smart tv's not much else.

Mtl JP 10:21 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

reportings
- commercial real-estate: collecting 60% vs usual 90% of rents
- (some) retail sales uP 10-20%
some winners, mostly losers

march inflation figures: down about .5%

arguments about CB's gigazillion sprayings the market
- "textbook" (moderm monetray theory) says yes spray, it is the right thing
- contrarians say price inflation on ~1yr radar


PAR 09:41 GMT April 23, 2020
FRANCE
Reply   
While all banks can expect to suffer losses and writedowns relating to the virus, French banks are particularly exposed says JPMorgan. And they are exposed as a result of their corporate and investment banking (CIB) divisions.

Broadly, the problem is that French banks are particularly exposed to the equity derivatives business, where mark-to-market losses are expected to be unusually high. “In equity derivatives, we expect French banks to underperform U.S. peers due to their higher gearing to structured products which suffered mark-to-market losses related to the collapse in dividend swaps expectations,” said JPMorgan’s analysts. BNP alone lost ~€200m on equity derivatives trades in March according to Bloomberg.

Nor are equity derivatives the only issue. JPMorgan says French banks could also suffer from losses relating to the oil industry and to their exposure to hedge funds which were affected by last month’s spike in volatility.

In combination, these effects are forecast to reduce the return on equity at BNP Paribas to 1% this year, to create a negative return on equity of -1.2% at SocGen, to cut Credit Agricole’s return on equity to 1.8% and to reduce returns at Natixis to 1.9%.

JPMorgan doesn’t explicitly say so, but the pressure on returns could lead to renewed pressure for job cuts – if not in 2020, then certainly at the start of 2021.

swiss frank 09:37 GMT April 23, 2020

Reply   
Flat. Close enough to 1.0777. Risk Reward maybe a bit more balanced here. Always looking to sell the bounces tho.

AT Trader john 08:53 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

Thursday
DJ: -36
SP: -5.1

2-yr 0.219% +0.8%
Spread 10s-2s +40.6 bps (+41.9 bps)

10-yr
US: 0.625% +0.6
UK: 0.329% +0.2
DE: -0.404% +1.8

EURUSD MACRO TREND: NEGATIVE
Spot (Prev day Pivot Pt)
EURUSD 1.0796 (1.0834)
GBPUSD 1.2350 (1.2325)
EURGBP 0.8740 (0.8798)
USDJPY 107.65 (107.73)

This Week 1.0897-1.0784 (113 pips)
thu: 1.0834-1.0784 (50)
wed: 1.0885-1.0803 (82) mon: 1.0897-1.0842 (55)
fri: 1.0892-1.0813 (79)


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AT Trader john 08:35 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

These are miserable PMIs today, especially for services (everywhere). Normally they are more resilient than manufacturing.

AT Trader john 08:32 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

GB Flash PMIs April 2020




ALERT
GB 09:30 GMT
mfg: 32.9 vs. 42.5 exp. vs. 47.8 prev.
svc: 12.3 vs. 29.5 exp. vs. 34.5 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release



AT Trader john 08:02 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

IHS PMI data suggest a 7.5% contraction in quarterly GDP.

SOURCE: newsquawk.com

london red 07:52 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

yup euro data often leaked as goes thru so many hands, while uk is first place. uk retail sales are world champion, watch what happens an hour or two before then half an hour and move tends to be yours unless they over do it and it gets priced in pre release.

swiss frank 07:45 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

VERY good point re bad news never in the price for the eur vs always priced in for the usd. Question is, why?

AT Trader john 07:42 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

Red-interesting point. Note also that the European PMIs seem to leak. You have to assume the market has the data beforehand and trade accordingly.

swiss frank 07:41 GMT April 23, 2020
eur/jpy

Meanwhile with .8740 looking like really good support for eur/gbp maybe gbp wants to try lower. Maybe.

swiss frank 07:38 GMT April 23, 2020
eur/jpy
Reply   
Worth keeping an eye on. Stating the obvious 116.00-116.50 pretty important long term support area. It should break lower but BoJ being conjoined twin of SNB..... Just a thought, not a pos.

AT Trader john 07:38 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

We will see those next Friday. I don't know if they can go negative?

london red 07:38 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

the key thing to remember about bad news when trading euro or usd assets is that when it comes to eu its never in the price, while for the usd, everything is always priced in. like today, another week, another 5m unemployed. but thats priced in.

swiss frank 07:32 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

As low as 10? Wait til Italy and Spain print.

AT Trader john 07:22 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

I dont recall ever seeing a major PMI as low as 10.

AT Trader john 07:19 GMT April 23, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

EZ Flash PMIs April 2020




ALERT
EZ 08:00 GMT
mfg: 33.2 vs. 39.3 exp. vs. 44.5 prev.
svc: 11.7 vs. 24.8 exp. vs. 26.4 prev.

German 07:30 GMT
mfg 34.4 vs. 39.0 exp. vs. 45.4 prev.
svc: 15.9 vs. 29.0 exp. vs. 31.7 prev.

France 07:15 GMT
mfg: 31.5 vs. 37.8 exp. vs. 43.2 prev.
svc: 10.4 vs. 25.0 exp. vs. 27.4 prev.


Markit PMI Press Release



AT Trader john 07:11 GMT April 23, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 23 April 2020

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Thu 23 April 2019
Flash PMIs all day
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
Fri 24 Jan 2019
AA 06:00 UK- Retail Sales
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
A 14:00 US- Flash Univ of Michigan

Central Kwun 02:20 GMT April 23, 2020
what level to buy gold is sure win trade
Reply   
Buy Gold
Entry: 1709 Target: Stop: 1689

keep buying, yesterday one was TP again

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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