dc CB 22:18 GMT May 6, 2020
How long before blowback?
More than 380,000 residents have filed for unemployment since mid-March. Maryland Labor Secretary Tiffany Robinson said Wednesday the state was sending out $170 million in benefits to residents every week � compared to about $7 million before the pandemic began.
Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot (D), the state�s tax collector, estimated this week that 30 to 35 percent of the state�s small businesses won�t ever reopen.
�Marylanders have made incredible sacrifices in recent weeks, and because of that, thousands of lives have been saved, and the numbers of infections are so much better than they would have been,� Hogan said.
Washington Post (linked)
dc CB 21:53 GMT May 6, 2020
How long before blowback?
Gov of Maryland decides to let people go outside.
�There are some additional things we can do safely, right now, prior to the lifting of the stay-at-home order,� Hogan said during an afternoon news conference where he announced that state parks and beaches will reopen at 7 a.m. Thursday for boating, camping, fishing and tennis. �I know how anxious people are to get outside, both for their physical and mental well-being.�
Mtl JP 20:34 GMT May 6, 2020
How long before blowback?
ib 15:39 more for your bullsh.t file:
�But I had no idea how popular the task force is until actually yesterday when I started talking about winding down. It is appreciated by the public.� - Trump said, according to a White House pool report.
The people... THE PEOPLE WANT(ED) IT.
AT Trader john 20:06 GMT May 6, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 7 May 2020
LATE Wednesday
DJ: -218
SP: -20.2
2-yr 0.180% -0.6
Spread 10s-2s +53.9 bps (+47.8 bps)
10-yr
US: 0.719% +1.3
UK: 0.237% +0.6
DE: -0.508% -0.6
EURUSD MACRO TREND: NEGATIVE
Spots (Pivot Point prev day)
EURUSD 1.0807 (1.0812)
GBPUSD 1.2355 (1.2380)
EURGBP 0.8745 (0.8731)
USDJPY 106.04 (107.25)
THIS Week 1.0975-1.0782 (193 pips)
wed: 1.0848-1.0782 (56)
tue: 1.0926-1.0826 (100)
mon: 1.0975-1.0896 (79)
fri: 1.1018-1.0935 (83)
thu: 1.0972-1.0835 (137)
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20-day avg: 1.0880
50-day avg: 1.0958
100-day avg: 1.0996
200-day avg: 1.1029
Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points
dc CB 19:55 GMT May 6, 2020
Unbelievable
The news also dovetails with a warning that states such as China could easily shut down entire western cities by hijacking proposed coronavirus contact-tracing apps and surveillance systems.
The Brookings Institution in Washington published a paper in April written by three leading US academics in the fields of science, tech and law warning that �The issue of malicious use is paramount. Trolls could sow chaos for the malicious pleasure of it. Protesters could trigger panic as a form of civil disobedience. A foreign intelligence operation could shut down an entire city by falsely reporting COVID-19 infections in every neighborhood. There are a great many vulnerabilities underlying this platform that have still yet to be explored.�
the NHS coronavirus app? Experts warn there's NOTHING to stop people filing fake symptoms and say foreign spies could shut down entire cities
dc CB 19:51 GMT May 6, 2020
Unbelievable
The EU is also concerned.
Brussels, Today, 07:01
Chinese spies have targeted Belgian biological warfare and vaccine experts, Belgium's security service suspects.
They are also targeting British pharmaceutical giant and vaccine-maker GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) in Belgium and Belgian high-tech firms, Belgian intelligence fears.
China suspected of bio-espionage in 'heart of EU'
dc CB 18:55 GMT May 6, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 7 May 2020
Auctions Nest week
*Treasury to sell $42BN of 3-year notes on May 11, in line with the $42BN estimate
*Treasury to sell $32BN of 10-year notes on May 12, greater than the $29BN estimate
*Treasury to sell $22BN of 30-year bonds on May 13, greater than the $20BN estimate
dc CB 18:46 GMT May 6, 2020
Unbelievable
Crude: margin needed to trade a single contract with TOS/TD Ameritrade--$32,234
dc CB 18:43 GMT May 6, 2020
Unbelievable
so far today. Embrace The FEAR 'stories'
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/mysterious-coronavirus-linked-syndrome-spreads-london-new-york
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/usuk-intelligence-warn-china-trying-hack-bio-labs-working-covid-research
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/coronavirus-mutates-now-dominant-more-contagious-form-doctors-ponder-east-coast-vs-west
https://www.6sqft.com/most-new-covid-cases-in-new-york-are-non-essential-workers-staying-at-home/
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/researcher-cusp-covid-19-breakthrough-killed-bizarre-murder-suicide
PAR 17:53 GMT May 6, 2020
RISK ON
Can VIX go negative?
PAR 17:51 GMT May 6, 2020
RISK ON
Reply
Don't fight $ 3 trillion.
AT Trader john 17:01 GMT May 6, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 7 May 2020
Reply
GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Thu 7 May 2019
AA 06:00 GB- BOE Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Non-Farm Productivity
Fri 8 May 2019
AA 13:30 US/CA- Employment
Paris ib 16:07 GMT May 6, 2020
How long before blowback?
The Donald: "Because of this success, the Task Force will continue on indefinitely with its focus on SAFETY & OPENING UP OUR COUNTRY AGAIN. We may add or subtract people .......to it, as appropriate. The Task Force will also be very focused on Vaccines & Therapeutics."
Yeah really, what's not to like a vaccine!
Anyone they are opening up. What will be really interesting is how Treasury Auctions go post-COVID. I'm not sure if the first week will set the trend but it will be interesting.
Dr Judy Mikovits, PhD
Mtl JP 15:59 GMT May 6, 2020
How long before blowback?
arguably dlryen dances to its own piper
like , for example, 10& 20 day MAs
DLR still has an uP trend
-
Trump appeared and took back plan to shut coronavirus task force, saying it will continue �indefinitely�.
Paris ib 15:39 GMT May 6, 2020
How long before blowback?
That's bullsh.t. Those kinds of headlines are so yesterday. All their crappy polls mean nothing, and they know it. Hillary didn't get in. BREXIT happened. They can keep producing this kind of crap but it's increasingly redundant.
Meanwhile the rest of us have to figure a way out to fix this stuff. And that does not include cowering at home hoping some engineered virus (Wuhan.... with Fauci ties, or Fort Derick... same difference) doesn't GET us and we drop dead. So let's stay scared and helpless. PLEASE
Meanwhile reckon USD/JPY breaks through 106 and heads lower. Just saying.
This stuff is just laughable
Mtl JP 15:33 GMT May 6, 2020
How long before blowback?
maybe importantly:
trudeau currently leads a minority gov't.
recent Ipsos poll gives justin "admirer of China's 'basic dictatorship" trudeau 74 per cent approval of handling of the crisis.
Successful politician's moto:
The people ... THE PEOPLE WANT(ED) IT.
Paris ib 15:31 GMT May 6, 2020
BREAKING NEWS
Reckon rates have bottomed. The impact of that is worth pondering.
london red 15:30 GMT May 6, 2020
BREAKING NEWS
fyi the boe slinks in early am tomorrow at 0600gmt. not much is expected but they could point to further easing to ensure nobody left on planet thinking rates can go up. other than that no more is f/c
Paris ib 15:28 GMT May 6, 2020
How long before blowback?
Aren't they just a bunch of clowns? The more they get involved the worse this thing is when it finally blows. Trouble is they have intervened now.... they can't back off. They continue with the illusion that they are in control. What a complete joke. And this is a long time coming. Second act of the 700 billion dollar bail out following 2008.
At some point push comes to shove and we have to examine the problem. In the U.S. the problem is out-of-control military spending.
Fix that. Good luck.
Jan. 17, 1961, President Dwight Eisenhower
Mtl JP 15:21 GMT May 6, 2020
How long before blowback?
ib 15:11 - which Q would you like addressed first ? lol
-
justin trudeau came out swinging more moRE "money" at market again, this time $252 million to address food supply issues and safety at processing plants. He promised he is not done with "investment"s: �This is an initial investment and if we need to add more, we will.�
Paris ib 15:19 GMT May 6, 2020
How long before blowback?
If we could just get the monkey-minded control freaks (aka the bureaucrats) to take a GIANT STEP BACK, maybe we could sort this out.
Trouble is once you give these type of people any kind of power they hang onto it like crazy. Which is why Trump is such an outlier and so welcome. And why they hate him so much.
When does he fire Fauci? Probably never.
The Talented Dr Fauci
Mtl JP 15:14 GMT May 6, 2020
How long before blowback?
ADM
-
May 6 (Reuters) - Agricultural commodities trader Bunge Ltd reported a quarterly loss on Wednesday compared with a year-ago profit, impacted by a $385 million charge in its agribusiness segment. The company reported a net loss of $207 million in the first quarter ended March 31, compared with a profit of $37 million a year earlier.
no immunity from buy high sell lower ?
Paris ib 15:13 GMT May 6, 2020
How long before blowback?
Do we go full-blown central planning here trying to contain this?
That worked out well last time they tried it. Nothing much got made, most of it was out of date, off season, poor quality and there was a huge black market for everything. So maybe...
Paris ib 15:11 GMT May 6, 2020
How long before blowback?
JP yeah I know. But either we have markets or we don't. Somethings gotta give.... so they hold the Treasury market buy printing bucket loads of dollars. What's the upshot of that? Inflation? USD sell off? I mean where are we heading with this? Straight out communism where all the prices are pre-determined. Everyone gets coupons?
How large does this circus get?
Mtl JP 15:00 GMT May 6, 2020
How long before blowback?
...Too much paper, not enough buyers...
-
In fake money system "not enough buyers" does not matter.
There is that "buyer of last resort" (bolr).
With an enviable feature: it has the luxury of "buying" anything it wants and importantly does not have to worry about selling it in the future because it can simply let "expire" at some later point, in some dark corner at of sight and out of mind (according to Ben). The bolr, conveniently, is responsible to no-one.
PAR 14:37 GMT May 6, 2020
BELGIUM
Reply
Belgium, a country of 10 million, has 9 ministers responsible for health care. All paid with fat wages and other perks... The result: one of the highest covid death rates in the world. More bureaucrats, more special commissions = more misery.
PAR 14:15 GMT May 6, 2020
RISK ON
Treasury also said it will boost long-term refunding debt sales next week to a record of $ 96 billion.
IN ONE WEEK
swiss frank 14:02 GMT May 6, 2020
How long before blowback?
Could be Red. It still seems more like a buy jpy against everything move as opposed to just the usd.
Paris ib 13:59 GMT May 6, 2020
How long before blowback?
The writings on the wall for the Treasury market. Too much paper, not enough buyers and, I would guess, foreign holders quietly waiting to offload their paper to the FED or just letting it expire. We shall see. The FED will stop a blood bath but to what extent they can manage a bear market remains to be seen.
london red 13:53 GMT May 6, 2020
How long before blowback?
frank, usdjpy right now is following treasury yields, expect it to be stronger nxt wk. they gotta dump their load before they can take on more next wk (around 50 yards plus)...and the following wk you got 20 yards of the new 20 year.
swiss frank 13:46 GMT May 6, 2020
How long before blowback?
I think gotta watch the auctions for indirect/foreign participation and to the degree possible foreign buying of US equities. For me the risks you point out are very real. For the short term tho there's few alternatives. So for me current trends (apart from the yen because no idea whats going on there) continue until something like the auctions breakdowns show otherwise.
Paris ib 13:36 GMT May 6, 2020
How long before blowback?
Frank do you have a litmus test? An indicator you are watching?
For me it's the buck, particularly the USD/JPY. Japan has done a stellar job in containing Covid with just under 600 deaths in total. They did not lock down the economy.
The trouble with all of this is there is a very open effort going on to control markets. That means as long as they can pull that off, things look sort of OK. When they start losing control they are likely to lose control of the whole shebang: the Treasury market, the USD and stocks. The global impact will be similarly ugly. Price discovery will be delayed. Don't know what you do in the meantime? Wait?
Japan and Covid
swiss frank 13:31 GMT May 6, 2020
CHINA
Yes that reminds me. Maybe time to be looking at stuff like ADM (ag related shares).
PAR 13:20 GMT May 6, 2020
CHINA
Reply
China buying Brazilian soybeans.
Shipments totaled 34.5 million tons through April, a record for the first four months of the year, according to figures from Brazil�s Economy Ministry. Exports to China rose by 28.5%.
swiss frank 13:18 GMT May 6, 2020
How long before blowback?
Indeed thats the question. Roubini thinks sh*t hits the fan in earnest only starting in 2022-2023. Before that its probably more a trade than a position. (I think)
Mtl JP 13:11 GMT May 6, 2020
RISK ON
1.0808
-
as EURO pokes back uP N of 1.08
near-term Res: 1.0830/35
Paris ib 13:05 GMT May 6, 2020
How long before blowback?
Reply
Hey look mum no hands! Well maybe not. Remember the 666 yield on the 30 year bond? Yields heading higher as an avalanche of paper hits the market. The FED will be on call to hoover up some paper but don't expect yields to fall. And don't expect China or Japan to turn up for auctions. In fact offshore investors are likely to be AWOL. The US authorities have nationalised the market. Which makes it pretty much a fictitious market.
The knock-on impact on other US markets is not going to be good. Question though: what's the timeframe for this? How about now? We shall see.
Meanwhile the corruption in the various health departments around the world is being exposed:
The interesting Dr Fauci
Swiss Frank 12:56 GMT May 6, 2020
RISK ON
Kind of sort of not really? Some of them up some not. More like a yen move, no?
Mtl JP 12:46 GMT May 6, 2020
RISK ON
atm DLR is on the uP
Swiss Frank 12:43 GMT May 6, 2020
CHF/JPY
Reply
For no other reason than it just seems too low (see 4 hour and daily charts) I bot some chf/jpy here below the 00. See how...
london red 12:43 GMT May 6, 2020
RISK ON
2843 sup for snp. as long as they hold that can rally
Mtl JP 11:27 GMT May 6, 2020
RISK ON
Heading into NY
SnP
-
yesty late day profit-taking almost made-up by now
london red 10:48 GMT May 6, 2020
RISK ON
from today til end of week we will get various jobloss reports. the market always went up on thurs jobless claims in range of 4-5mil. today is adp, tomo claims and fri nfp. all will be unbelieveably bad, hence we have 3 days of stock rallies ahead of us. todays adp forecast is 20mil losses, so 19/19.5 will be seen as a huge win. 20.5/21 and they will say its expected to be bad. so really there is little downside risk today as everyone knows the numbers will be bad. 2912 gap fill and if break leads to 2934. and for those that like crosses of 100/200dmas theres a real fking treat in store. yes everyone knows 100dma will cross down thru a slightly falling 200dma on spx but the real trick keyser soze pulls will be if prices move over 3k and we get a cross back up within a few days. this will be a new longterm buy signal! imagine msm, they will never shut up about it.
Mtl JP 10:25 GMT May 6, 2020
Unbelievable
frank - "scientist" knows how to make otherwise smart woman stupid
PAR 10:11 GMT May 6, 2020
RISK ON
Reply
$ 3 trillion coming to the markets.
Trump and Mnuchin kings of debt.
Next week auction will be big, maybe the biggest ever,
it will be great.
AT Trader john 09:04 GMT May 6, 2020
BREAKING NEWS
Red thanks. I mention that because we feel that traders should be alert to what they are dealing with with some of these data releases.
london red 08:58 GMT May 6, 2020
BREAKING NEWS
uk is always leaked, it goes through too many hands not to
AT Trader john 08:48 GMT May 6, 2020
BREAKING NEWS
Awful UK Construction data. You can see from the price action beforehand that the report had been leaked.
AT Trader john 08:46 GMT May 6, 2020
BREAKING NEWS
For the Record
U.K. Construction PMI Apr 2020
-- NEWS ALERT --
8.2 vs. 21.5 exp. vs. 39.3 prev.
AT Trader john 08:43 GMT May 6, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 6 May 2020
Wednesday
DJ: +140
SP: +15.8
2-yr 0.192% +0.6
Spread 10s-2s +47.8 bps (+46.8 bps)
10-yr
US: 0.670% +1.3
UK: 0.216% +0.1
DE: -0.559% +1.1
EURUSD MACRO TREND: NEGATIVE
Spots (Pivot Point prev day)
EURUSD 1.0800 (1.0869)
GBPUSD 1.2385 (1.2451)
EURGBP 0.8720 (0.8726)
USDJPY 106.35 (106.63)
THIS Week 1.0975-1.0795 (180 pips)
wed: 1.0845-1.0795 (50)
tue: 1.0926-1.0826 (100)
mon: 1.0975-1.0896 (79)
fri: 1.1018-1.0935 (83)
thu: 1.0972-1.0835 (137)
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20-day avg: 1.0880
50-day avg: 1.0959
100-day avg: 1.0999
200-day avg: 1.1030
Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points
london red 08:36 GMT May 6, 2020
BREAKING NEWS
stops busted on ft100. cable collapses so algos buy, guess they forgot to check the pmi as its back dwn again. close under 200hma means bull trap in place
london red 08:35 GMT May 6, 2020
BREAKING NEWS
uk constn pmi goes from $hit to worse. cable shs neckline at 12330. key sup
AT Trader john 07:50 GMT May 6, 2020
BREAKING NEWS
Final Service PMIs April 2020
ALERT
Final Service PMIs
Eurozone (08:00 GMT)
12.0 vs. 11.7 exp. vs. 11.7 (flash)
Germany (07:55 GMT)
16.2 vs. 15.9 exp. vs. 15.9 (flash)
France (07:50 GMT)
10.2 vs. 10.4 exp. vs. 10.4 (flash)
Markit PMI Press Release
PAR 07:47 GMT May 6, 2020
GERMANY
German Federal Constitutional Court rightly dismisses ECB
In the opinion of the German Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe, the billion-euro purchases of government bonds by the European Central Bank (ECB) are partly unconstitutional. The purchase program violates German basic law in several points. The ECB Council must now show in a new decision that the programme is proportionate, otherwise the German Bundesbank would be prohibited from participating in the ECB purchase programme after a transitional period of a maximum of three months. The ruling from Karlsruhe is seen as historic, but should have no direct consequences. However, the ECB must expect even stronger internal resistance from the Bundesbank. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann has already confirmed that he will work to ensure that the requirements of the Federal Constitutional Court, regarding the ECB bond purchases, are met.
PAR 07:39 GMT May 6, 2020
FED OPINION
Reply
Fed vice chair Clarida struck a cautious tone, saying a recovery could start in the second half of this year but more monetary and fiscal support may be needed. Fed�s Bullard warned for unemployment to rise well above 20%.
AT Trader john 07:24 GMT May 6, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 6 May 2020
Reply
GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Wed 6 May 2020
Final Service PMIs all day -- Some
A 12:15 US- ADP Payrolls
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 7 May 2019
AA 06:00 GB- BOE Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Non-Farm Productivity
Fri 8 May 2019
AA 13:30 US/CA- Employment
PAR 07:24 GMT May 6, 2020
GERMANY
Reply
Holger Zschaepitz
@Schuldensuehner
�
13h
#ECB says that it has taken note of German Constitutional Court ruling & remains fully committed to inflation mandate.
BUT: ECB failed to increase inflation despite massive balance sheet expansion, it is questionable whether bond purchases comply w/principle of proportionality
Central Kwun 03:27 GMT May 6, 2020
1690-95 is big support
Reply
Buy Gold
Entry: 1701 Target: 1800 Stop: 1681
remember unlimited QE from all central banks
Sydney ACC 01:12 GMT May 6, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 5 May 2020
While the ultimate aim of Operation Market Garden, the capture of the bridge over the Rhine at Arnhem was a failure, Nijmegen large swathes ofNorth Brabant were liberated.
My father in law was a sergeant in 156 Para Battalion in the second airlift on 18 September 1944. Was wounded in both arms, was taken prisoner by the Germans. Later escaped with a compatriot.
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