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Forex Forum Archive for 05/25/2020

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Mtl JP 23:03 GMT May 25, 2020
this is good one...

A mink may have infected a second Dutch worker with coronavirus, agriculture minister says
- MarketWatch

But Schouten said that the Dutch health authorities believe the risk of human exposure to the virus outside the barns where the mink were being kept was “negligible.”

may ... may not ... trust the scientist and her science

Mtl JP 22:56 GMT May 25, 2020
Monday Amazing Trader 25 May 2020

BoC poloz' last kick at the can
..."Some worry that our measures will cause inflation down the road. However, the bigger risk is deflation, or falling prices, which is our immediate concern."...

lower prices in environment of indebtedness = bankers' nightmare

never mind that lower prices to the peasant = higher standard of living

Dealing with extreme uncertainty
Stephen S. Poloz

Israel MacroMicro 21:00 GMT May 25, 2020
Monday Amazing Trader 25 May 2020

Thursday : reality
Friday : everything is under control, trust me!


good luck

AUD/CAD: extremely expensive when China picks Australia to deliver their message.

Israel MacroMicro 20:57 GMT May 25, 2020
Big Short in U.S. Stocks Needs Watching, Says One Market Veteran

red 15:37

the milkman like the thunder, trying to do the job twice at the same place?

Mtl JP 17:08 GMT May 25, 2020
Monday Amazing Trader 25 May 2020

Thursday ...
- jobless claims
- Q1 GDP
- durable goods

Friday :
- powell yaks
(about what he forgot or did not see last time he yakked)

AT Trader john 16:38 GMT May 25, 2020
Tuesday Amazing Trader 26 May 2020

LATE Monday Holiday (UK/US) DJ: +289
SP: +36.1

2-yr 0.170% +0.3 bps
Spread 10s-2s +48.7 bps (+49.1 bps)

10-yr
US: 0.657% -1.6
UK: 0.176% -0.2
DE: -0.494% -0.6

EURUSD MACRO TREND: Neutral-Higher
Spots (Pivot Point prev day)
EURUSD 1.0893 (1.0893)
GBPUSD 1.2195 (1.2188)
EURGBP 0.8930 (0.8940)
USDJPY 107.68 (107.67)

This Week 1.0915-1.0871 (44 pips)
mon: 1.0915-1.0871 (44)
fri: 1.0961-1.0886 (75)
thu: 1.1009-1.0937 (72)
wed: 1.1000-1.0918 (82)
tue: 1.0976-1.0903 (73)


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20-day avg: 1.0876
50-day avg: 1.0874
100-day avg: 1.0961
200-day avg: 1.1010

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GVI Forex Blog 16:19 GMT May 25, 2020
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 25 May 2020
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

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Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 25 May 2020

london red 15:37 GMT May 25, 2020
Big Short in U.S. Stocks Needs Watching, Says One Market Veteran

every day and his bitch will be buying abv the 200dma cos they gonna gap thru it. often big avgs get done this way. so mom and pop may end up buying 3010/20 at the open. res at 3030/70 may likely mark a swing high fwiw

haifa ac 15:14 GMT May 25, 2020
Big Short in U.S. Stocks Needs Watching, Says One Market Veteran
Reply   
(Bloomberg) -- A large bearish position in U.S. equities that’s been amassed by trend-following funds may prove vital to the next move for stocks, according to a strategist who’s been analyzing markets since the early 1990s.

The S&P 500 Index is now trading within 50 points of its 200-day moving average, a metric that’s proved important when breached in the past for changes in positioning by commodity-trading advisers, known as CTAs, according to an analysis from James McCormick at NatWest Markets Plc.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-short-u-stocks-needs-053137219.html

Now even Drudge readers are accomplished Tech traders and follow the 200MA. Congrats.

Swiss Frank 13:45 GMT May 25, 2020
Podcast
Reply   
Well worth an hour of ones times. The problem- disaggregated credit. The evidence- diverging money supply and gdp. The answer- raise interest rates!

Listen to this

AT Trader john 13:44 GMT May 25, 2020
Tuesday Amazing Trader 26 May 2020
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 26 May 2020
C 13:00 US- Case Shiller
A 13:45 US- Chicago PMI
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 27 May 2020
B 14:00 US- Richmond Fed
Thu 28 May 2019
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 07:55 DE- Employment
A 08:55 EZ- GDP
<B 12:30 CA- GDP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Durable Goods
B 14:00 US- Pending Homes
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
Fri 29 May 2019
AA 09:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A12:30 Personal Income/Spending
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


london red 13:14 GMT May 25, 2020
S&P futures

mkt will gap thru 3k and run stops towards 3028/30 res. further res by 3070. so for the wk, initially mkt moves higher. time for review at those lvls.

PAR 12:51 GMT May 25, 2020
S&P futures
Reply   
Huge stops above 2990 and even more above 3000.
Holidays are ideal for running stops.

Mtl JP 10:12 GMT May 25, 2020
Monday Amazing Trader 25 May 2020

THEME
(NBC News May 20, 2020)
strategy report delivered to Congress on Wednesday
-
The report says the Trump administration is

"willing to tolerate greater friction in the bilateral relationship"

PAR 08:38 GMT May 25, 2020
FRANCE
Reply   
Bruno Le Maire

Our objective is the economic sovereignty of France.

We don't want to tax the super wealthy in France.

We want European solidarity to boost the French economy.

The hard working poor in the North are being asked to finance the rich in the South.

There is something wrong with Macron's idea of European solidarity. Money does not grow on trees.

AT Trader john 08:30 GMT May 25, 2020
Monday Amazing Trader 25 May 2020

Monday Holiday (UK/US)

DJ: +96
SP: +10.1

2-yr 0.170% +0.3 bps
Spread 10s-2s +48.7 bps (+49.1 bps)

10-yr
US: 0.657% -1.6
UK: 0.176% -0.2
DE: -0.499% -1.2

EURUSD MACRO TREND: Neutral-Higher
Spots (Pivot Point prev day)
EURUSD 1.0881 (1.0915)
GBPUSD 1.2165 (1.2301)
EURGBP 0.8944 (0.8948)
USDJPY 107.72 (107.55)

This Week 1.0909-1.0871 (38 pips)
mon: 1.0909-1.0871 (38)
fri: 1.0961-1.0886 (75)
thu: 1.1009-1.0937 (72)
wed: 1.1000-1.0918 (82)
tue: 1.0976-1.0903 (73)


Sign up now for your invaluable report

How To Turn Your Forex Trading Into A Business

20-day avg: 1.0872
50-day avg: 1.0879
100-day avg: 1.0964
200-day avg: 1.1011

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points





AT Trader john 08:29 GMT May 25, 2020
Monday Amazing Trader 25 May 2020

Not safe anywhere on this planet...OK here at the moment.

dc CB 08:12 GMT May 25, 2020
Monday Amazing Trader 25 May 2020

So. on the ground reporting from home base?
Give it up john.

how's it in your neck of the woods.

Is it safe?

AT Trader john 08:07 GMT May 25, 2020
BREAKING NEWS
Reply   
German IFO Survey May 2020



NEWS ALERT

Current Assessment (Cond.):78.9 vs. 80.0 exp. vs. 79.5 (r. ) prev.
Business Climate:79.5 vs. 78.30 exp. vs. 74.3 (r. 74.2 ) prev.
Expectations:80.1 vs. 75.0 exp. vs. 69.4 (r.) prev.


IFO Climate Survey



AT Trader john 08:00 GMT May 25, 2020
Monday Amazing Trader 25 May 2020

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 25 May 2020
US/UK- Holidays
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
Tue 26 May 2020
C 13:00 US- Case Shiller
A 13:45 US- Chicago PMI
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 27 May 2020
B 14:00 US- Richmond Fed
Thu 28 May 2019
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Durable Goods
B 14:00 US- Pending Homes
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 07:55 DE- Employment
A 08:55 EZ- GDP
B 12:30 CA- GDP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income
Fri 29 May 2019
AA 09:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A12:30 Personal Income/Spending
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


Sydney ACC 06:57 GMT May 25, 2020
Is There Any Chinese Capital to Repatriate
Reply   
Australian Financial Review May 9 2020

While touring the family empire in China's Shandong Province, Jeremy Song, sketched out a plan to use his stake in Virgin Australia as a strategic platform for a push into tourism.

It was mid-2016 and Song's Nanshan Group had just spent $456 million buying a 20 per cent interest in Virgin, amid growing anxiety over Chinese investment in Australia.

"The blueprint in Australia is to expand the tourism business," Song told AFR Weekend while playing tour guide around the family's textile, property and aluminium holdings.

Song's loosely defined ambitions never amounted to much and Nanshan spent the next four years sitting passively on the Virgin register, alongside its far-larger Chinese compatriot, HNA, which also held a 20 per cent stake.

Neither company extracted any strategic value from their investment in Virgin and with the airline's collapse have now lost almost $1 billion between them.

For China Inc, it's not an unfamiliar pattern in Australia and in just a handful of high profile deals spanning resources, agriculture, infrastructure and property, mainland companies have lost at least $25 billion over the last decade.

"I see a catalogue of failure," says Tim Murray, chief executive of China-focused research firm J Capital. "Many Chinese companies have come to Australia and overpaid for assets, much like the Japanese did in the 1980s."

This track record of red ink has done little to dampen worries over Chinese investment and with asset values depressed by the coronavirus pandemic all offshore takeovers became subject to approval by the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) in late March.

The fear, which the federal government has fanned, is that cashed-up Chinese investors, backed by the state, would swoop on underpriced assets at a time of growing strategic rivalry between China and the west.

Historically, China Inc has played this game badly. With the recent exception of Tencent's purchase of a 5 per cent stake in a battered Afterpay, the big Chinese players have never been nimble enough to make opportunistic investments.

They have been largely top-of-the-market buyers, a situation that has worked very well for those selling.

Take the "raid" on the London-listed shares of Rio Tinto in February 2008 by the state-owned Aluminum Corporation of China (Chinalco).

The global financial crisis was just getting going when Chinalco paid £60 a share for what is now a 10.3 per cent stake in Rio.

The stock traded at around that level for the next three months, but has spent most of the subsequent 12 years at half Chinalco's entry price.

In Australian dollar terms Chinalco is down $8.5 billion on its investment in Rio, while at the same time it has done nothing to break the dominance of Australian iron ore producers as Beijing once desired.

Even when adding back dividends Chinalco is still down $2 billion.

And that's only the second-worst Chinese investment in the Australian resources sector.

Topping the list is Citic's well-publicised troubles in developing an iron ore mine on land owned by Clive Palmer in the Pilbara region of Western Australia.

Murray from J Capital has described Citic's investment as the "worst resources deal in Australian history".

Citic has booked $US5 billion ($7.8 billion) in write-downs since production began in 2013 and its local accounts show $US1.6 billion in tax losses. In addition it lost more than a $US1 billion on foreign exchange purchases prior to construction even starting.

The project was reported to have been marginally profitable last year, due to historically high iron ore prices, which are likely to fade as the global economy weakens and Brazil's Vale gets back to more normal production after a series of mine disasters and weather problems.

Some, including Murray, believe Citic's losses are far larger than those reported and may total more than $US10 billion.

This is a big price to pay for injecting 20 million tonnes of iron ore concentrate into the market or around 2.5 per cent of Australia's total exports.

And it has done nothing to further Beijing's strategic aim of lessening China's reliance on BHP and Rio, which were regularly accused of crimping China's development through restricting iron ore production.

Such concerns around state-backed companies falling into line behind the Communist Party has gradually bled into worries over private Chinese capital.

The new FIRB guidelines make no distinction between state-owned and private companies for the first time, a position which FIRB had hinted at for Chinese companies for much of the past year.

The argument is that private companies in China can never be free of Communist Party control due to their reliance on state-owned banks for funding.

Those who have helped Chinese investors buy Australian assets say while being aligned with Beijing's strategic objectives is important, a stronger motivation is often getting money offshore.

And this can only be done at a time when the so-called foreign exchange "window" is open, which often means paying top dollar for an asset while the regulator is allowing funds to leave the mainland.

"Rather than any strategic goals, I think Nanshan bought into Virgin as they saw an opportunity to get a large amount of money out of China quickly and legitimately," says one person involved in the deal.

"Soon after [they bought into Virgin], the window slammed shut."

This desire to get money offshore was the likely motivation behind Wanda Group's purchase of marquee property in Australia. But the group, whose founder was once China's richest man, was forced to sell its Sydney and Gold Coast Developments in a January 2018 fire sale after China imposed new capital restrictions, which on some estimates cost it $1 billion.

Another badly timed acquisition was China's Moon Lake Investments, which rushed into the purchase of Australia's biggest dairy farm in April 2016, paying a hefty $280 million.

A crash in milk prices and drought followed and it has since written down the asset by $50 million, delivered a string of operating losses, lost most of the management team and breached debt covenants, leaving it at the mercy of lenders.

Murray from J Capital argues while critical infrastructure purchases by Chinese and other foreign investors should be closely scrutinised, much of the anxiety over other Chinese investment is not justified, especially given their poor track record.

"I think we need to be careful that we don't shut the door entirely on Chinese investment," says Murray.


dc CB 05:21 GMT May 25, 2020
HEADS UP RE: CHINESE CAPITAL REPATRIATION

the resident

Q

dc CB 05:19 GMT May 25, 2020
this is good one...

Mtl JP 10:34 GMT 05/24/2020
this is good one ...
-
wanna help yourself, wanna help Hertz ?


Fed Is Now The Proud Owner Of Bankrupt Hertz Bonds

Gold Coast Martin 04:55 GMT May 25, 2020
HEADS UP RE: CHINESE CAPITAL REPATRIATION
Reply   
Something that will shape trading from now until well into next year:
Chinese Government has already started instructing state-backed firms to repatriate all their surplus/working capital from their overseas operations in order to stabilise their faltering economy( CCP fears civil unrest)). The model is similar to the Japanese style fund repatriation during the Asian crisis and the results on all markets will be the same.
So mind your risk and g/t.

dc CB 03:33 GMT May 25, 2020
this is good one...

Demo 2020 Pres Election Button LEAKED

Available Soon

dc CB 01:51 GMT May 25, 2020
this is good one...

this one's better.

just remember what Memorial Day is all about.
People who saw the threat of Death from the Unknown, Bucked-Up & Screamed --- FU we'll die before we put up with that sheit.
(since before they started to write it all down)

2 early Werner Herzog films. Pix from each

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0068182/mediaindex?ref_=tt_pv_mi_sm

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0083946/mediaindex?ref_=tt_pv_mi_sm

9:08 / 41:22 FIRESIGN THEATRE: EVERYTHING YOU KNOW IS WRONG

dc CB 00:07 GMT May 25, 2020
this is good one...

The Telegraph

Professor Michael Levitt of Stanford University predicts that the UK will be rid of Covid-19 within weeks

the Stanford University professor who correctly predicted the initial trajectory of the pandemic, sent messages to Professor Neil Ferguson in March telling the influential government advisor he had over-estimated the potential death toll by "10 or 12 times".

Lockdown saved no lives and may have cost them, Nobel Prize winner believes

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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