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Forex Forum Archive for 06/24/2020

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dc CB 22:58 GMT June 24, 2020
RISK-OFF



NEW YORK (AP) — New York, Connecticut and New Jersey will require visitors from states with high infection rates to quarantine for 14 days, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Wednesday.

“We now have to make sure the rates continue to drop,” Cuomo said. “We also have to make sure the virus doesn’t come on a plane again.”

Cuomo announced what was called a “travel advisory” at a briefing jointly via video feeds with New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy and Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont, both fellow Democrats.

The states’ health departments will provide details of how the rule will work, Murphy said.

The announcement comes as summer travel to the states’ beaches, parks and other attractions — not to mention New York City — would normally swing into high gear.

Visitors from states over a set infection rate will have to quarantine, Cuomo said. As of Wednesday, states over the threshold were Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Washington, Utah and Texas.

Mtl JP 22:35 GMT June 24, 2020
RISK-OFF

PAR 21:33 have U ever considered that they are not about "solve(ing) the US economic problems" and those who believe that they are ... idiot/s ...

PAR 21:38 GMT June 24, 2020
TSLA
Reply   
An American Wirecard?

Doubtfully accounting. Strange profits.
Subsidies all over the world ?

PAR 21:33 GMT June 24, 2020
RISK-OFF
Reply   
Amazing how FED manages to bring VIX down.

But, a few idiots at the FED are not going to solve the US economic problems by printing billions and billions of dollars.

Hard work made America great . Not idiots printing money and idiots spreading fake news.

AT Trader john 20:13 GMT June 24, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 25 June 2020

EURUSD 20-Day moving average 1.1247 moving into view...

AT Trader john 19:18 GMT June 24, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 25 June 2020

LATE Wednesday: RISK-OFF
DJ: 25,446 -710
SP: 3050.3 -81.0

2-yr 0.188% -0.8 bps
Spread 10s-2s +49.8 bps (+51.1 bps)
10-yr
US: 0.686% -2.3
UK: 0.191% +0.3
DE: -0.437% -0.3

EURUSD MACRO TREND: HIGHER
Spots (Pivot Point prev day)
EURUSD 1.1256 (1.1279)
GBPUSD 1.2422 (1.2460)
EURGBP 0.9060 (0.9050)
USDJPY 106.90 (106.76)

THIS Week 1.1349-1.1168 (181 pips)
wed: 1.1326-1.1255 (71)
tue: 1.1349-1.1233 (73)
mon: 1.1270-1.1168 (102)
fri: 1.1254-1.1168 (86)
thu: 1.1262-1.1187 (75)

20-day avg: 1.1247
50-day avg: 1.1017
100-day avg: 1.0987
200-day avg: 1.1028

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points





AT Trader john 17:36 GMT June 24, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 25 June 2020
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Thu 25 June 2020
A 11:30 EZ- ECB Minutes
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- Durable Goods
AA 12:30 US- GDP
Fri 26 June 2020
A12:30AA Personal Income/Spending
AA 15:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


HK Kevin 15:48 GMT June 24, 2020
GBP
Reply   
With dlr index at 97.10 resistance and S&P around 3040 day low, buy small Cable at 1.2426 earlier for pips pocketing.

haifa ac 15:29 GMT June 24, 2020
Wave of Selling
Reply   
There’s a wave of selling estimated to be in the billions that’s about to hit the stock market

The final day of June is a week away, and Wall Street is already speculating that there’s the potential some asset allocators, like pension funds, could take the big gains from the stock market and move them into bonds.
There’s a wide range of views about how much selling could hit the stock market, but some strategists say the resulting market move may not be that big after all because of prior selling and action in the derivatives market.
The amount of pension fund rebalancing is estimated in a wide range, with some estimates from $35 billion to $76 billion.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/23/theres-a-wave-of-selling-estimated-to-be-in-the-billions-thats-about-to-hit-the-stock-market.html

london red 15:17 GMT June 24, 2020
RISK-OFF

powell bitch will no doubt step in but in case 200dma by 3020 on spx with the 50 at 2970 and the 100 at 2930. there is first gap to fill to 2865. its a nice number but thats all it is for now as any dip is bought intraday or an overnighter at best as i call them (down one day close at lows, up the next)

GVI Forex 15:13 GMT June 24, 2020
RISK-OFF

Equities finally reacting to steady stream of bad Covid-19 news in what has been a liquidating market day for the fx side.

PAR 15:06 GMT June 24, 2020
FAKE
Reply   
Fake news, fake balance sheets.

A strange world we live in.

Israel MacroMicro 14:53 GMT June 24, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 24 June 2020

USD is weak marginally when the strength of today's rise considered
11220/30 definitely a barrier for today
imo

PAR 14:38 GMT June 24, 2020
RISK-OFF

Regulators allow some financial companies to manipulate their balance sheets in times of crisis.

AT Trader john 14:26 GMT June 24, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 24 June 2020

EURUSD 20-day avg should be just below 1.1250 by the close...

PAR 13:17 GMT June 24, 2020
RISK-OFF

Never trust auditors.

Balance sheets can easily be manipulated.

Mtl JP 12:54 GMT June 24, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 24 June 2020

pollution warning:
evans and bullard in the afternoon
risk: likely low

Mtl JP 12:49 GMT June 24, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 24 June 2020



DLR's current mood : uP

PAR 12:29 GMT June 24, 2020
RISK-OFF
Reply   
The U.S. is weighing new tariffs on $3.1 billion of exports from France, Germany, Spain and the U.K., risking igniting a wider transatlantic trade fight later this summer. The U.S. Trade Representative wants to impose new tariffs on olives, beer, gin and trucks, while increasing duties on aircraft, cheese and yogurt


Virus: Infected passengers arrived in Hong Kong from Dubai, Manila and Kuala Lumpur in recent days, underscoring risks that come with reopening borders. EU officials are considering banning Americans from entry. Donald Trump hasn't met with health officials about the rapid uptick in U.S. cases.

Mtl JP 12:23 GMT June 24, 2020
this is good one...

this is good one ...
but probably not good nuff IF one's a would-be buyer:
-
... "Housing starts will fall sharply .. House prices will fall as well and are unlikely to recover ".../..

Canada housing agency says big-city home prices, resales, construction to fall in 2020

Mtl JP 11:26 GMT June 24, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 24 June 2020

Buyer beware: SEC warns investors to avoid coronavirus-related frauds and scams

(Of course the FEDs , with their Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility buying stocks and bonds - and other market meddling schemes - are good guys.)

“We’ve seen in other periods of crisis that people try to take advantage,”

swiss frank 11:23 GMT June 24, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 24 June 2020

Yeah I think equities continue to be, and maybe for 2 more years continue to be a buy the dip market. The next elevator down could be fierce tho be it cycle driven or election uncertainty related....

HK Kevin 11:11 GMT June 24, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 24 June 2020

The problem with the above views is equities. If equities turn in July, and not in a peaceful way, who knows....
I heard from some analysts arguing that the equity are not at a bear market this year, but the 5rd wave of a bull market beginning from 2008.

swiss frank 11:08 GMT June 24, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 24 June 2020

control F July

swiss frank 11:08 GMT June 24, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 24 June 2020

Yeah good question. It comes from the Turek piece where I believe he is referring to debt maturing (like a lot of it). If you go the link and July it will take to the exact sentence he's referring to fiscal cliff....

Dubai MA 10:55 GMT June 24, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 24 June 2020

Swiss Frank

What do you mean by

July could see things clarified especially in anticipation of the US fiscal reckoning towards the end of the month.

swiss frank 10:52 GMT June 24, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 24 June 2020

Maybe. 1%-2% moves aside which are always possible in the opposite direction, I think one has be cognizant of the fact that maybe the worm has turned. I have the feeling market is not positioned long EUR or possibly even is still short. Again this is not referring to the 1%-2% or shorter horizon traders. July could see things clarified especially in anticipation of the US fiscal reckoning towards the end of the month. And as the calendar approaches November.... Expect a lot of volatility.

For me personally yes I'd prefer to position and trade from the long eur side. That said I have not yet, as have been more absent than not the last 2 months. I'd look for first possible entry just below here 1.1250-1.1280. Below that 1.1150 and 1.1050.

I also favor long eur/jpy not necessarily from right here but certainly any move back towards 117-118.

The problem with the above views is equities. If equities turn in July, and not in a peaceful way, who knows....

AT Trader john 10:45 GMT June 24, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 24 June 2020

My pivotal market levels remain EURUSD 1.1300 and 3100 in the S&P 500.

London Trader 10:30 GMT June 24, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 24 June 2020

Frank, are you turning bullish on the euro?

swiss frank 10:26 GMT June 24, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 24 June 2020

This is the link to the Turek blog on the off chance someone might read it...

John Turek

AT Trader john 10:09 GMT June 24, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 24 June 2020

Not a lot of new news today, but an increasing focus seems to be the global (and some local) resurgence of the COVID-19 virus.

swiss frank 10:07 GMT June 24, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 24 June 2020

Speaking of exports. There's a handful of Economists (John Turek perhaps the leading proponent) these days that are prioritizing a country's export/gdp ratio as an indicator of currency strength. Asian, particularly East Asian countries ratios have been falling consistently for several years. Covid and the new normal they think will most likely accelerate that decline. As many countries have limited fiscal capabilities to respond one of the few policy alternatives is currency depreciation. Following that, on a tiered basis Asian currencies should demonstrate the least strength going forward. The USD (which has more than a couple issues these days) should moderately benefit. These same economists site the EUR is possibly benefiting the most from this particular exports/gdp indicator. As its starting from a relatively low level on a multi year basis, AND european exports are calculated on a country basis, the EUR has less exposure to further depreciation as a policy tool (emphasis on policy tool on a stand alone basis). Obviously there are other factors at work here but the EU ultimately recognizing the need to open up the fiscal taps along with less exposure to exports as other countries/regions lends potential for EUR appreciation.

Coincidentally Martin Armstrong cycle analysis is indication July will be a turn month for the EUR. Maybe fortunes are (or have already) turning for the single currency unit... Maybe.

AT Trader john 09:52 GMT June 24, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 24 June 2020

As a matter of policy we cannot make trading recommendations (I suggest subscribing to the Amazing Trader as it will tell you when and which currency pairs to buy or sell).I felt the market reaction to the headline had been excessive, but EURUSD has already recovered. Not sure there is much more in it now. This is a strange (illiquid) market.

bali sja 09:47 GMT June 24, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 24 June 2020

john, so you recommend buying euro here?

AT Trader john 09:32 GMT June 24, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 24 June 2020

I gather this is only on 3.1bln in exports, so its peanuts in the broad scheme of things?

AT Trader john 09:21 GMT June 24, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

Reports of possible U.S. tariffs on Europe weighing on EURUSD at the moment. Risk-off trade.

Source:

Newsquawk.com

AT Trader john 08:35 GMT June 24, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 24 June 2020

Wednesday: RISK-OFF
DJ: 25,797 -227
SP: 3093 -26.3

2-yr 0.194% -0.2 bps
Spread 10s-2s +51.1 bps (+52.0 bps)
10-yr
US: 0.705% -0.4
UK: 0.206% -0.6
DE: -0.414% -0.1

EURUSD MACRO TREND: HIGHER
Spots (Pivot Point prev day)
EURUSD 1.1295 (1.1298)
GBPUSD 1.2480 (1.2494)
EURGBP 0.9048 (0.9045)
USDJPY 106.74 (106.60)

THIS Week 1.1349-1.1168 (181 pips)
wed: 1.1326-1.1287 (39)
tue: 1.1349-1.1233 (73)
mon: 1.1270-1.1168 (102)
fri: 1.1254-1.1168 (86)
thu: 1.1262-1.1187 (75)

20-day avg: 1.1230
50-day avg: 1.0009
100-day avg: 1.0985
200-day avg: 1.1027

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points





AT Trader john 08:07 GMT June 24, 2020
BREAKING NEWS

DE
German IFO SurveyJune 2020



NEWS ALERT

Current Assessment (Cond.): 81.3 vs. 84.0 exp. vs. 79.5 (r.78.9 ) prev.
Business Climate: 86.2 vs. 86.0 exp. vs. 79.5 (r. 79.7 ) prev.
Expectations: 91.4 vs. 87.0 exp. vs. 80.1 (r.80.5) prev.


IFO Climate Survey



AT Trader john 07:50 GMT June 24, 2020
Wednesday Amazing Trader 24 June 2020

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Wed 24 June 2020
A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude
Thu 25 June 2020
A 11:30 EZ- ECB Minutes
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- Durable Goods
AA 12:30 US- GDP
Fri 26 June 2020
A12:30AA Personal Income/Spending
AA 15:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


Mtl JP 07:29 GMT June 24, 2020
this is good one...

Mnuchin says U.S.-China decoupling will occur if firms cannot compete fairly - Reuters June 23, 2020

"If we can compete with China on a fair and level playing field, it is a great opportunity for U.S. businesses and U.S. workers, as China has a large, growing middle class," he said. "But if we can't participate and compete on a fair basis, then you are going to see a de-coupling going forward."

I am not reading who or how "fair" is arbitered .

Central Kwun 07:18 GMT June 24, 2020
more bullish now after break 1745

Buy Gold
Entry: 1768 Target: Stop:

yesterday long was TP at 1772, now buy again

PAR 05:58 GMT June 24, 2020
RISK OFF
Reply   
Gold to hit 1800. Governments and zombie companies
kept afloat thanks to zero and negative interest rates.
Stock valuations at extreme highs.

This will all end in tears.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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