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Forex Forum Archive for 06/25/2020

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dc CB 22:58 GMT June 25, 2020
RISK ON

Reuters:

Government experts believe more than 20 million Americans could have contracted the coronavirus, 10 times more than official counts, indicating many people without symptoms have or have had the disease, senior administration officials said.

The estimate, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is based on serology testing used to determine the presence of antibodies that show whether an individual has had the disease, the officials said.

The officials, speaking to a small group of reporters on Wednesday night, said the estimate was based on the number of known cases, between 2.3 million and 2.4 million, multiplied by the average rate of antibodies seen from the serology tests, about an average of 10 to 1.

"If you multiply the cases by that ratio, that's where you get that 20 million figure," said one official.

If true, the estimate would suggest the percentage of U.S. deaths from the disease is lower than thought. More than 120,000 Americans have died from the disease since the pandemic erupted earlier this year.

With 20 million infected, the mortality rate in the US of just 0.6%.

dc CB 22:56 GMT June 25, 2020
RISK ON

Wash Post:

Washington, D.C., Mayor Muriel E. Bowser raised concerns about large holiday gatherings during the pandemic and said the city wouldn’t further relax restrictions anytime soon.

“Our strong recommendation is that D.C. residents celebrate the Fourth of July at home or near their home in small gatherings,” Bowser (D) said, urging residents not to go to the Mall even though the Trump administration said it will set off the traditional fireworks there. “We hope that the crowds that come in non-pandemic years won’t materialize this year.”

Although crowds have become a daily feature of the protests against police brutality in the District, which Bowser herself has joined, she said big groups are not recommended. “Large gatherings are still a high-risk activity, so if you’re outdoors, that’s still a high-risk activity,” she said.

Israel MacroMicro 20:09 GMT June 25, 2020


closed EUR/USD longs

AT Trader john 18:51 GMT June 25, 2020
Friday Amazing Trader 26 June 2020

LATE Thursday: MIXED RISK
DJ: 25,746 +300
SP: 3083.8 +33.4

2-yr 0.184% -0.4 bps
Spread 10s-2s +48.7 bps (+48.4 bps)
10-yr
US: 0.671% -1.3
UK: 0.155% 0.0
DE: -0.463% +0.7

EURUSD MACRO TREND: NEUTRAL
Spots (Pivot Point prev day)
EURUSD 1.1216 (1.1223)
GBPUSD 1.2404 (1.2420)
EURGBP 0.9040 (0.9036)
USDJPY 107.22 (107.22)

THIS Week 1.1349-1.1168 (181 pips)
thu: 1.1260-1.1191 (69)
wed: 1.1326-1.1255 (71)
tue: 1.1349-1.1233 (73)
mon: 1.1270-1.1168 (102)
fri: 1.1254-1.1168 (86)

20-day avg: 1.1256
50-day avg: 1.1026
100-day avg: 1.0990
200-day avg: 1.1030

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points





GVI Forex Blog 18:46 GMT June 25, 2020
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 25 June 2020
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 25 June 2020

dc CB 18:30 GMT June 25, 2020
RISK ON

Donald J. Trump
✔@realDonaldTrump

Black Lives Matter leader states, “If U.S. doesn’t give us what we want, then we will burn down this system and replace it”. This is Treason, Sedition, Insurrection!
1:29 PM - Jun 25, 202

dc CB 16:53 GMT June 25, 2020
RISK ON

The financial media is beginning assign blame to the recent stock market weakness to the spike in COVID cases and the potential for a November Democratic sweep of the White House and both chambers of Congress

Market Begins To Internalize Reality

dc CB 16:42 GMT June 25, 2020
RISK ON

Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college.

Economist

AT Trader john 15:23 GMT June 25, 2020
Friday Amazing Trader 26 June 2020
Reply   

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Fri 26 June 2020
A12:30AA Personal Income/Spending
AA 15:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


Israel MacroMicro 15:03 GMT June 25, 2020
EURUSD 11224

you are #1
the only #1

how are you PipsTaxi© driver?

PAR 14:46 GMT June 25, 2020
RISK ON
Reply   
End of quarter window stressing starting to boost equities.

Amman wfakhoury 14:14 GMT June 25, 2020
EURUSD 11224
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 12:15 GMT 06/25/2020
Price train is going up to 11224.
buy add buy if reached 11170 station
_______
Price train reached at 11224

HK Kevin 13:34 GMT June 25, 2020
GBP

I covered my position yesterday
Israel MacroMicro 10:40 GMT 06/25/2020
Kevin
squared USD/CNH longs @ 70810

PAR 12:57 GMT June 25, 2020
RISK WHATEVER

Algos seem to be buying.

AT Trader john 12:34 GMT June 25, 2020
BREAKING NEWS
Reply   
Weekly Jobless Claims



ALERT
+1.48mln vs: +1.3mln expected vs. +1.506mln (r )



U.S. Durable Goods Orders May 2020



NEWS ALERT
Headline: +15.8% vs. +10.30% exp. vs. -17.70% prev.
Ex-Trans: +4.0% vs. +2.80% exp. vs. -16.60% prev.







U.S. GDP 1Q20




ALERT
-5.00% vs. -5.00% exp. vs. -5.00% prev.

RELEASE: U.S. GDP




Amman wfakhoury 12:15 GMT June 25, 2020
EURUSD 11257/11224/11193/11170

Price train is going up to 11224.
buy add buy if reached 11170 station


The only one in the world who confirms the next level and every hour movement

Amman wfakhoury 12:00 GMT June 25, 2020
EURUSD 11257/11224/11193/11170
Reply   
Profitstations announcement
_____________________
Price train moving these stations
11257/11224/11193/11170

The only one in the world who confirms the next level and every hour movement

AT Trader john 11:52 GMT June 25, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 25 June 2020

S&P selling off along with EUR liquidating markets could be due to quarter end? COVID-19 has become a market factor again as it refuses to fade away.

AT Trader john 11:04 GMT June 25, 2020


"Trader" I agree with your EURGBP observation.

AT Trader john 10:58 GMT June 25, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 25 June 2020

Risk-Off looking to me like more long EUR liquidation Vs. the USD and on its crosses. Talk of some quarter-end re-balancing out of equities into fixed income. Now through the end of next week could see some heavy adjustment flows.

London Trader 10:57 GMT June 25, 2020


Look at eurgbp to for source of eurusd weakness and support for gbpusd. Reverse of yesterday.

Israel MacroMicro 10:48 GMT June 25, 2020


makes 11246 a must happen during the coming 18hrs
imo

Israel MacroMicro 10:46 GMT June 25, 2020


11190/11205-11280/11330
for now - today
imo

swiss frank 10:43 GMT June 25, 2020


I don't know.... Not exactly a high confidence trade but small enough to let it go farther against than I should if it doesn't work and not enough to feel good about if it does... We'll see...

Mtl JP 10:41 GMT June 25, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 25 June 2020



DLR
s got the bid

Israel MacroMicro 10:40 GMT June 25, 2020
GBP

Kevin
squared USD/CNH longs @ 70810

Israel MacroMicro 10:38 GMT June 25, 2020


11215 w/you

swiss frank 10:30 GMT June 25, 2020

Reply   
Toe in the water... Long €/USD and EUR/JPY here

PAR 09:31 GMT June 25, 2020
RISK WHATEVER

“Never in the history of markets has a crisis of such magnitude been translated into such low risk premiums,” the team said of the credit rally, with investment grade debt yielding 0.65 per cent, whilst junk companies yield 3.7 per cent.

“Obviously, nothing in the ‘real economy’ justifies such euphoria, but one does not fight central banks at their QE game,” the team observed. “The QE-spurred bubble can last for years and years, until the cracks in the real economy and the social disparities it fuels finally push the system over the edge.”

https://www.hedgeweek.com/2020/06/22/286769/ucits-fund-run-lyxor-chenavari-eyes-alpha-generation-qe-creates-unhealthy-market


PAR 09:25 GMT June 25, 2020
RISK WHATEVER
Reply   
This morning.

The fastest switch from risk-off to risk-on since the introduction of MMT?

AT Trader john 08:51 GMT June 25, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 25 June 2020

Thursday: RISK-OFF
DJ: 25,286 -31
SP: 3036.5 -2.8

2-yr 0.184% -0.4 bps
Spread 10s-2s +48.4 bps (+49.8 bps)
10-yr
US: 0.668% -1.6
UK: 0.168% -0.2
DE: -0.453% -1.7

EURUSD MACRO TREND: NEUTRAL
Spots (Pivot Point prev day)
EURUSD 1.1238 (1.1279)
GBPUSD 1.2450 (1.2460)
EURGBP 0.9027 (0.9050)
USDJPY 106.59 (106.76)

THIS Week 1.1349-1.1168 (181 pips)
thu: 1.1260-1.1224 (40)
wed: 1.1326-1.1255 (71)
tue: 1.1349-1.1233 (73)
mon: 1.1270-1.1168 (102)
fri: 1.1254-1.1168 (86)

20-day avg: 1.1247
50-day avg: 1.1017
100-day avg: 1.0987
200-day avg: 1.1028

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points





AT Trader john 08:37 GMT June 25, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 25 June 2020

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Thu 25 June 2020
A 11:30 EZ- ECB Minutes
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- Durable Goods
AA 12:30 US- GDP
Fri 26 June 2020
A12:30AA Personal Income/Spending
AA 15:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


swiss frank 08:31 GMT June 25, 2020
RISK-OFF

PAR 21:33 GMT 06/24/2020
Hard work made America great . Not idiots printing money and idiots spreading fake news.

Yeah but which is easier...

HK Kevin 08:18 GMT June 25, 2020
GBP

Out at 1.2462
HK Kevin 15:48 GMT 06/24/2020
With dlr index at 97.10 resistance and S&P around 3040 day low, buy small Cable at 1.2426 earlier for pips pocketing.

Mtl JP 01:55 GMT June 25, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 25 June 2020

EURO 1.1253-ish
-
Pivot 1.1279
5 day 1.1238
10 day 1.1249
20 day 1.1247
makes trading easy(ier) ?

dc CB 00:58 GMT June 25, 2020
this is good one...

As the US looks to the July 4th Holiday --- with fireworks displays being canceled due to Corona infection fears, it is noteworthy that Nov 3 - election day, and Nov 4 the traditional Day After when the winner is Annc'd, may also be canceled due to Corona Fears.
A couple of days ago I posted a link to a lengthy WashPost piece about the difficulty of getting 'day after' results due to Mail-In and Absentee Ballotts.
________________________________________________________

With various polls showing Joe Biden commanding a sizable lead over Donald Trump ahead of the November presidential election, and even online betting sites such as PredictIt representing Biden as a 14 point favorite, the stock market has clearly been surprisingly sanguine about a change in leadership to a Democratic president, even if it entails higher corporate taxes....

However, while stocks appear unfazed so far by political events, the same can not be said for FX traders who according to Bloomberg are "starting to contemplate the unthinkable": The possibility that the U.S. presidential election produces no clear winner, leading to protracted uncertainty.

According to yen implied volatility, there is a sharp jump in expected price moves around election day which is expected to persist into 2021. That is in contrast with the run-up to the 2016 election, when turmoil indicator in FX land reflected only a temporary minor uptick in volatility as investors broadly overlooked the likelihood of a Trump presidency - or any controversy surrounding the results - leaving them painfully exposed to those events.

ZeroHedge (that 'far right wing' under attack from Google and NBC/MSM, FinNews web site)

FX Traders Brace For The "Unthinkable": An Election With No Clear Winner

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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