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Forex Forum Archive for 01/15/2021

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Tallinn viies 20:49 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
cftc positons reports came out.
euro long positions were cut by 2%. so no selling yet on professional hedge fund level.

crude long positions up ca 2%.

business as usual.

Mtl JP 20:41 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd

PAR 18:50 phew ... u coming around to the idea , finally ?

Israel MacroMicro 19:22 GMT January 15, 2021
chf

EUR/CHF: next week will provide lower low
GBP/CHF: if weekly close > 1.2100 than maybe okay
CAD/CHF: weekly close > 0.6980 than maybe okay too

scalps, another opera :)

imo

Toronto Abb 19:09 GMT January 15, 2021
chf
Reply   
i think it is time to buy gbchf cadchf eurch 1.21 0.699 1.076..

lakewood jjlkwd 18:56 GMT January 15, 2021
gold
Reply   
gold bug has bitten.. if we close below 1830 would be lowest since 12/1...6 week lows

PAR 18:50 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd

Nice thing it is so predictable. You can trade like the algos without having an algo.

Just buy any Fed speakers speech.

Israel MacroMicro 18:49 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd

yes, I cannot wait for the "taxes going higher" rally.
I wonder in how many % rally they will discount that higher taxes news :)

Tallinn viies 18:38 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
when Modern Monetary Theory guys have taken over ECB and FED and all G7 governments then nothing to fight with them. need to enjoy the ride as long as it lasts as red says.

Tallinn viies 18:33 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
all the bad news are actually good news. dont mix things up :)

Tallinn viies 18:28 GMT January 15, 2021
brent
Reply   
US Baker Hughes reporting Oil Rig Count is up +20 to 287 compared to previous week 267.

seems that higher price working for industry.

PAR 18:20 GMT January 15, 2021
Mkt

FED officials and PPT organizing sharp reversal of market decline after a week of bad news.

Tallinn viies 18:16 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
it may happen that eurusd, brent, ndx and spx all close at the lows of the week. would be interesting week ahead. if one is taking out previous week low then most likely all others will follow. fingers crossed. 150 points per week still on the table. would be nice if it is going only one direction :)

london red 18:08 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd

euro was late going up never made new high.it may be late going up again. while 12064 38.2 fib holds on a closing basis it may rise. i would certainly expect it if stocks went up. in that case a bottom would be expected next week. lets see how stocks close today.

dc CB 18:03 GMT January 15, 2021
Mkt

January 14, 2020---W.H.O. announced to the world that “Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in Wuhan, China.”

UK Gov page FB

Tallinn viies 17:53 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
of course if eurusd falling like stone then NDX and brent can not ignore the show. even tesla or bitcoin maybe getting infected.

Tallinn viies 17:51 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
average trading range for january from the launch of euro is 600 points. weak close this week at the bottom of the week indicates euro reversal just starting to gather force. after this week low taken out next week Im drawing 1,1750 to the paper and trying to trail my short position there. for monday my target is 1,2020. stop above this week high.

Mtl JP 17:49 GMT January 15, 2021
Mkt

Infrastructure, energy proposals up next

Biden called his $1.9 trillion relief plan the ‘first step.’ Here’s his idea for Part Two

london red 17:41 GMT January 15, 2021
Mkt

thats true stox went negative for year...briefly. ft100 did a nice reversal at close after a bust channel. looking constructive. one hops gor early week weakness and then a stronger finish. to next wk.

Mtl JP 17:36 GMT January 15, 2021
Mkt

this is good one ...
ya hear jerome: a rebel !
-
Fed’s Kashkari says he’s not worried about inflation ‘shooting way above’ 2% rate

By Greg Robb

Mtl JP 17:30 GMT January 15, 2021
Mkt

Calendar
-
Stock and bond markets in the U.S. will be closed Monday, January 18

PAR 17:18 GMT January 15, 2021
Régime change in Europe
Reply   
This year Merkel out. Rutte out. Conte probably hanging on to power but fragilized. Who's next,?

Mtl JP 17:18 GMT January 15, 2021
Mkt



earlier I posted about DLRx down trend's pause
here is an update

I am biased.
Biased DOwn that is. Still.

Mtl JP 17:10 GMT January 15, 2021
Mkt

Higher rates are beginning to overshadow the buoyant mood in stocks and corporate bonds.

Majority of investors say higher rates loom as biggest threat to stocks and risky assets, says BofA survey

Tallinn viies 16:50 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
yes I do. didnt hit my target.

PAR 16:42 GMT January 15, 2021
Mkt

PPT in full buying mood. Markets may not close down, certainly not with option expiration.

Israel MacroMicro 16:37 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd

viies

still holding NQ shorts?

Tallinn viies 16:31 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
this week really ok. pure luck as we say :)

Tallinn viies 16:30 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
De Blasio: NYC will run out of vaccines next week

lakewood jjlkwd 16:27 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd

ny desks have foot on the pedal still, not the brakes..


man you've been hitting it well this week...

Mtl JP 16:20 GMT January 15, 2021
Mkt

10-yr 1.095%
-
OPEN 1.128%
DAY RANGE 1.090 - 1.128

Tallinn viies 16:13 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
eurusd weekly range 144 points. so quite enough. was expecting 150 pips but can survive with 144 also.

Mtl JP 16:11 GMT January 15, 2021
Mkt

o o o o o ..... typo
1.20818 LoD

Mtl JP 16:09 GMT January 15, 2021
Mkt

EURO 1.21818 LoD sofar
as Sup holding

Tallinn viies 16:07 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
Ldn fix at the lows of the day...
european desks got their positions from 1,2140/45 covered now. all good. so I wouldnt be suprised if eurusd daily low is on place as monday is off in NYC and some position covering maybe needed before long weekend. NYC last few days hasnt closed at the lows of the day.

Tallinn viies 15:26 GMT January 15, 2021
brent
Reply   
crude level very attractive for oil producers to sell.

for oil buyers not so attractive buy here at 55 after 10 weeks run from 36 usd/b to 57 usd/b.

so correction needed. of maybe speculators have so much funds that they can buy all the oil US producers are selling.
but maybe not?

U.S. shale producers lock in future sales as oil prices rise to one-year high

Tallinn viies 15:20 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
plan to cover short nasdaq100 at 12 740-750 area. then normal weekly done.

with brent I expect it to drop down 54,00 today.

lakewood jjlkwd 15:13 GMT January 15, 2021
gold
Reply   
trendline support broken on 4hr chart if we go to 1826

Mtl JP 15:13 GMT January 15, 2021
Mkt

just for the record:
Mich cons sentiment come out as 79.2 vs 79.5 exp'd

next up kashkari yaks at top of hour

Tallinn viies 15:11 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
1,2020 level plan to go long.

Tallinn viies 15:10 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
100 pips from daily high is a good level to take profit.
1,2060/65.
1,2020 level.
brent and NDX botb also took out previous day low.
it is nice when things work out before weekend.

Mtl JP 15:09 GMT January 15, 2021
Mkt

1.2080 = day sb 1.2080 = 50day ma

Mtl JP 15:08 GMT January 15, 2021
Mkt

EURO 1.2093
-
1.2080/76 should be relatively solid band Sup
1.2080 = day, 76 prev day low

how-ever, mine could also be "famous last words"

london red 15:06 GMT January 15, 2021
Amazing Trader Update EURUSD

12058 is a prev low 12064 is 38.2 fib of move from 116. so a natural tp or sup lvl.

GVI Forex 14:56 GMT January 15, 2021
Amazing Trader Update EURUSD
Reply   
Posted yesterday on the AT forum

Thursday
GVI Forex 13:12 GMT 01/14/2021 - My Profile
EURUSD

1.2105/15/25 was the support band, so far middle has held. See 4 hour AT chart. Key target is 1.2058 should 1.2080 get broiken

The Amazing Trader

Mtl JP 14:56 GMT January 15, 2021
Mkt

EURO 1.20965
-
POOF ! 1.21 Sup

Mtl JP 14:42 GMT January 15, 2021
Mkt

DJIA 30797.71 down 194 or -.63%
-
early barf on biden's "stimulus" babble
see how the day concludes

Mtl JP 14:15 GMT January 15, 2021
Mkt

IF euro breaks 1.2100 "convincingly"
1.2057 comes on radar

-

Calendar (still to come)
10:00 Michigan sentiment (79.7 80.7)
one hour later: Kashkari (on economy, in case players misunderstood jerome on something)

Mtl JP 14:02 GMT January 15, 2021
Mkt

DLRx - steady with a slight tilt uP, dollar dumping appears on pause

10-yr 1.105% (1.0950 - 1.1250% current s/t range)

EURO - slight tilt DOwn
-- 1.2150 on top, 1.2110/00 1.2080 Sup




PAR 13:17 GMT January 15, 2021
This is not a recession.
Reply   
UBS Weekly Blog

By Paul Donovan

A recession by any other name…

Economics does not have a universal definition of what a recession is. It is a “you know it when you see it” sort of thing. But there is some common understanding about what a recession means for the economy and markets. This is why the word recession should not be applied to the current economic situation.

Recessions tend to start with an unbalanced economy. There is a crisis, a policy response, and a slow period of recovery as confidence gradually returns. But this was never the story during the pandemic.
Parts of the global economy did not experience a cyclical slowdown.

Instead activity followed a pattern similar to that of France’s grandes vacances; there was an abrupt slowdown while everyone stopped working, and an abrupt restart when that period of (enforced) leisure was over. However, there are also sectors of the economy that have experienced a structural blow. Here, talk of recovering back to 2019 levels of activity is unrealistic —the model is broken.

The danger is that using the word “recession” for the world today will mean investors keep being surprised by a reality that is very different. This explains why investors’ underestimated the speed of the recovery to date, and risk misunderstanding the structural challenges ahead.

haifa ac 13:11 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd

40% of Americans don’t have $400 in the bank for emergency expenses: Federal Reserve

Tallinn viies 12:54 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
US household deposits were up 21% in Q3 relative to 2019.

In dollar terms, total deposits and cash held by households and corporations (M1) are up over $3 trillion vs. a year ago.

Seems 1Q 2021 even better?

PAR 12:27 GMT January 15, 2021
The Netherlands
Reply   
Rutte's government on the brink of collapse.

Tallinn viies 12:25 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
NYC started with eurusd selling. lets hope we will get down to 1,2075 today. minimum mission to take out previous day low 1,2111.
weekly range to small currently.

PAR 12:12 GMT January 15, 2021
JPM
Reply   
Beats on earnings and revenues.

Well done!

london red 11:08 GMT January 15, 2021
brent

viies. everyone has second/third wave. just because they cover it up doesnt mean oil demand is made sky high. right now demand is low, but when everyone exits demand will rise. demand for oil wont suddenly drop if china admits to a second wave, which is already causing a big drop in consumption.
i think you are right to look for a pullback, but buying the dips this year should have the biggest effect on portfolios

GVI Forex 10:53 GMT January 15, 2021
MLK
Reply   
Reminder, Monday is a US holiday

Tallinn viies 10:24 GMT January 15, 2021
brent
Reply   
are people really think China publishing real numbers? 97k people infected? oasis of covid free zone? get real.

China reported the highest number of daily COVID-19 cases in more than 10 months on Friday, capping a week that has resulted in more than 28 million people under lockdown and the country’s first death from the coronavirus in eight months.

“China, the global engine of oil demand growth, is wrestling with fresh COVID outbreaks,”

covid19 map

hk ab 09:58 GMT January 15, 2021
Gold
Reply   
nothing is easier to place limit sell at 1862 again...... :)

PAR 09:21 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd

Guess range between 1.2100 and 1.22OO.

Mtl JP 09:14 GMT January 15, 2021
Mkt

apparently in mental decline Biden plans half-million dollar scrub-down of White House before moving in (not clear yet who ll foot the extra bill)

-
" ‘The economy is facing a long, slow recovery’: There are 16 unemployed American workers for every 10 job openings "
-
Biden on Thursday rolled out a coronavirus relief plan with a price tag of $1.9 trillion, a sweeping measure that includes cash payments to Americans and money for distributing COVID-19 vaccines.

“I know what I’ve just described does not come cheaply, but a failure to do so will cost us dearly,”

“The consensus among leading economists is we simply cannot afford not to do what I’m proposing. Independent, respected institutions from around the world, from the Federal Reserve to the International Monetary Fund, have underscored the urgency. Even Wall Street firms have reinforced the logic.” .../..

the proposal would provide

PAR 09:01 GMT January 15, 2021
RISK ON
Reply   
Looking for blockbuster results from the big US banks. They are among the strongest in the world and had an incredible 4th quarter.

Tallinn viies 08:59 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
Biden did understood that 1,3 trillion is smaller money than 1,9 trillion. not sure why he did not make new package 3,1 trillion as I suggested.
anyway, this is money is not enough to push bitcoin and stuff immideatelly up to 145 000.
keeping my short brent, short nasdaq100 and now also short euro.
brent made lower high and low yesterday. target today 54,20.
nasdaq100 trying convince world that new norm is +5% per month. currently up mom 4,22% and stuggling.
expect it to follow euro and brent soon. at least 10% down from is possible in january.

PAR 08:58 GMT January 15, 2021
GERMANY
Reply   
Germany has the highest electricity prices in the world. One kilowatt-hour now costs 0.34 euros, twice as much as in #Sweden or 3 times as much as in the US. Energy transition & high subsidies for green electricity to blame.

haifa ac 08:53 GMT January 15, 2021
$ seems like it wants to rally
Reply   
Last 4 days seem like mini-accumulation.

Tallinn viies 08:36 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
europe came in and started selling at 1,2140-45 area. asain high was 1,2162. this should hold I think. otherwise NYC high yesterday was 1,2179. I assume today early european sellers stops behind NYC high.

Tallinn viies 08:33 GMT January 15, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
good morning,
euro made lower high and low yesterday. clear sign need to widen weekly nage to downside. first target 1,2111 previous day low. if taken out next 1,2070-75. weak close today means new push lower next week.
got short yesterday at 1,2176. stop still at 1,2226. target 1,2076.

User 08:32 GMT January 15, 2021 Reply   

'ICSForex Update'

User 08:27 GMT January 15, 2021 Reply   

'Amazing Trader Review...'

PAR 07:37 GMT January 15, 2021
ITALIA
Reply   
Prime Minister Conte doing whatever it takes to stay in power.

hk ab 04:04 GMT January 15, 2021
Gold
Reply   
The duck kept quacking with their wounds in mouth......

Central Kwun 01:57 GMT January 15, 2021
Sell prefer sell unless 1864 break
Reply   
Sell Gold
Entry: 1852 Target: Stop: 1862

yesterday sell was breakeven at 1839, lucky, today back to business is sell unless 1864 break

dc CB 00:34 GMT January 15, 2021
Mkt

China Ends 2020 With Record Trade Surplus as Pandemic Goods Soar

BBG

dc CB 00:26 GMT January 15, 2021
Mkt

Today in history:

January 14, 2020---W.H.O. announced to the world that “Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in Wuhan, China.”

 




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