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Forex Forum Archive for 02/15/2021

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dc CB 21:25 GMT February 15, 2021

The Education of a Speculator
Victor Niederhoffer 1997

'I am an old trader, and I trade yen in the cash market. I once had the best record among all traders........

But I got in over my head. I bought the dollar when the dollar-yen was 93. It went to 88 in just a few hours. I was eaten alive. The banks will not give me credit anymore, aand man of my cusomers have left..............

They are afreaid that it will crash asi ti did in 1929 and 1987. they look to me to land a big return, but without risk or drawdown. I can do it; but they don't want me to gamble, and I cannot do it without gambling....."

dc CB 21:06 GMT February 15, 2021

dc CB 23:04:26 GMT - 02/14/2021
BTC CME BetCoin futures--a single contract
Little People Margin - $150,612 (TDAmer/thinkorswim)
the 'Valentine's Day Massacre'? CoinTelegraph's Joseph Young notes that more than $1.89 billion worth of cryptocurrency futures positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours as Bitcoin and Ether sharply dropped.

Minneapolis DRS2 18:41 GMT February 15, 2021

I dunno man, if you're trading EUR/USD then trading is all about handling BOREDOM!

Heh, what can I say...I like the quiet life.

Israel MacroMicro 17:54 GMT February 15, 2021

you okay cb ?

trading is all about handling doubts, 100m long yacht or rubber made rowing boat for some is ..a question of being able to afford and for others an issue of interest. I am doing very well with trading, mainly because I enjoy all aspects of trading, including the doubts process.

next time you spend quality time with.Pelosi in a motel, do not forget to deliver her my greetings.

dc CB 17:13 GMT February 15, 2021

MacroMicro 10:56 GMT

you take pride in presenting what I call 'gunslingler' trades.
VIX, Lumber, NatGas as opportunities to make money.

If the trader calls the short term move correctly the rewards can be large. An incorrect reading to the tea leaves OR an 'unexpected event' and the trader is trapped with mounting losses.

I don't know if you actually put on these trades or you just like to talk it up. Oh yes of course you have a magically risk/reward formula in place that protects you from loss. If you system is that great what are you doing on this board, you should be sailing the Med on you yacht.

PAR 17:02 GMT February 15, 2021
Europe - Russia
It's a little like Brexit.

Russia has had it with the European union's bureaucrats.

Political prisoners are ok for Europe in Spain but not in Russia.

Russia has no problems with most individual European countries but has a huge problem with European bureaucrats trying to destroy Russia and Russian speaking people.

Europe- Russia

Israel MacroMicro 16:51 GMT February 15, 2021

red, try to help with major issues to solve, please!

help a human NOW

london red 16:45 GMT February 15, 2021

us mkt closed? fk it, lets turn the ftse into nasdaq for the day. up 2.5% while that POS dax barely moves the needle.

PAR 16:43 GMT February 15, 2021
US Markets
Even with a US holiday and US markets closed US index futures hit record highs without any volume.

PAR 16:40 GMT February 15, 2021
U.S. Home Prices Pass 2005's Peak Level

Israel MacroMicro 16:34 GMT February 15, 2021

the US holiday now
the China all week holiday
no oil price reversal at sight

so, I do not rush to long USD/CAD now @ 1.2630/35

GVI Forex Blog 16:09 GMT February 15, 2021
The Dollar Blow Up Scenario

While the US dollar remains the main global reserve currency, given the loose monetary and fiscal policies being pursued, it pays to consider a scenario that would undermine its reserve role that would see a run on the currency.

The Dollar Blow Up Scenario

Mtl JP 16:04 GMT February 15, 2021

that was (hopeful) day ...
on Feb 18th 2020
10-yr yielded 1.562%

only down down down since

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note

london red 15:49 GMT February 15, 2021

the us 10 has been quite simple since the summer. on the one hand you have powell keeping a lid on yields but on the other the 50dma supporting. its been a great in out trade. we are talking yield not tick chart here btw. so the odds are 1.28/1.32 high and back down. 50dma is now a little over the 1% mark so on a closing basis 1.05 is as best as one could expect to buy in at. this one is strictly buy the dip (yield) as all risk is to topside break.

Israel MacroMicro 15:26 GMT February 15, 2021

it is all good in USA, Washington DC is busy with hearing about "short squeeze "


Israel MacroMicro 15:23 GMT February 15, 2021

JP 15:15

sounds and looks as amazing trading opportunity in the making, not?

Mtl JP 15:15 GMT February 15, 2021

aww what theheck
A tweet from the Fed shows this quite clearly. The unemployment rate spike in the central bank’s “severely adverse” scenario isn’t of the same magnitude as what lenders experienced when the COVID-19 pandemic virtually shut down the U.S. economy.

The Fed’s new stress test is for a scenario easier than last year’s actual events

PAR 13:45 GMT February 15, 2021

The Iron Law of wages in America.

You pay the working poor just enough so that they don't die otherwise you don't have enough workers.

If you pay too much too many people are willing to work so can lower the wages again so that enough people die and then you raise wages again.

And so on and so.

The Iron Law of Wages

Macau Steven 13:20 GMT February 15, 2021
Bitcoin market cap.
Market cap of bitcoin may surpass 1 trillion this week

Macau Steven 13:12 GMT February 15, 2021

CME already offer bitcoin option

london red 12:28 GMT February 15, 2021

europe is behind on the vaccine program. uk is at 15 million from a 70 million population for example. but europe will eventually get there so there may be a few bargains to pick up that may realise by easter by which time things will be well on way for europe, even if still behind.

NY JM 12:10 GMT February 15, 2021

Along with the JPY, EUR lag may be stemming from it being used as a funding (carry trade) currency?

PAR 11:42 GMT February 15, 2021
What we urgently need are options on Bitcoin.
That will make the party complete.

PAR 11:30 GMT February 15, 2021
Euro supported by bigger than expected European trade surplus?

PAR 11:23 GMT February 15, 2021
Yellen Pro Digital Sales Tax ?
One of the most contentious areas among G7 countries has been the effort to reform corporate taxation of multinationals. Negotiations over a compromise package designed by the OECD have been stalled for months as the US threatened to impose tariffs on European countries in retaliation for their new digital sales taxes.

In contrast, in Friday’s meeting Yellen struck a positive tone according to several G7 capitals. The US agreed to a deadline of the summer to make progress on the issue.

One official familiar with the meeting’s events said that Yellen reinforced the US commitment to resolving the digital tax impasse at the OECD and insisted the agreement had to work for everyone.


PAR 11:18 GMT February 15, 2021
Minimum wage
The Biden-Yellen stimulus bill pumps $ billions into the most unimaginable projects but raising the minimum wage for the working poor seems to be impossible?

Mtl JP 11:07 GMT February 15, 2021

EURO 1.2130
Trapped in 1.2145 - 1.2113 range

Israel MacroMicro 10:56 GMT February 15, 2021

dear cb,

we are nearing the place and point of time that makes VX/VIX to move at least 50% up in a direct line. that means at least 12.5K area with NQ.

additionally, LBS may not not close above 1050 for few moons. to be one of the more volatile instruments very soon.

all imo

best of trades to you too

hk ab 10:35 GMT February 15, 2021
safe heaven
If there's an exit for safe heaven, how high can the heaven be above the ground? LOL

hk ab 10:24 GMT February 15, 2021
the cousins are killing the seniors though.

Macau Steven 10:20 GMT February 15, 2021

Draghi is a great guy! He knows how to print a better future!

Macau Steven 10:14 GMT February 15, 2021
Gold weekly range forecast (15-19 Feb)
Trading range: 1815-1890
Trading bias: up

PAR 09:59 GMT February 15, 2021
Italy 10y risk premium over Germany dropped to lowest since 2015 after Draghi sworn in as Prime Minister.

Mtl JP 09:57 GMT February 15, 2021

ieeha ! something appears to be working in Japan
Nikkei 225 30,084.15 +564.08 +1.91%

Macau Steven 09:56 GMT February 15, 2021

Sales of Tesla, Porsche, Maserati has recorded very nice gain

Macau Steven 09:23 GMT February 15, 2021

You better ask housewives to turn long, good chance to break $30 this week.

hk ab 08:54 GMT February 15, 2021
housewives just short more at 27.54

hk ab 08:51 GMT February 15, 2021
time for the good show

london red 08:36 GMT February 15, 2021

bali sja 07:35 GMT 02/15/2021
green shoots? one hell of a covid news and it is back to zero...

most of the gains came after mkt on fri, for uk at least. some folks are always privy to wht pm will say over wknd. plus long wknd in us means stocks go up, so that is front run as well.

london red 08:33 GMT February 15, 2021

masks will be in play til end of year at earliest. i dont think there is any doubt about that despite what some mouths may say for political purposes. them masks arent coming off for some time yet.

Mtl JP 08:20 GMT February 15, 2021

CDC director warns against lifting mask mandates: ‘We are nowhere out of the woods’

Mtl JP 08:15 GMT February 15, 2021

Is the stock market open on Presidents Day?

Here are trading hours

Mtl JP 08:05 GMT February 15, 2021

Ladies and gents, start placing your bets:
From Lightbulbs to 5G, China Battles West for Control of Vital Technology Standards
- Whoever has control of industrial norms for telecommunications, electricity transmission and artificial intelligence is in a position to dominate

Biden to discuss pandemic, economy and China in Friday G7 meeting
- Biden .. signaled a desire .. confronting China on a host of thorny issues .. to tackle economic challenges such as those posed by China,”

PAR 07:39 GMT February 15, 2021
Why Can’t the Government Stop Evictions?
A patchwork of protections has so far prevented the “tsunami” of evictions that housing advocates fear. But in many U.S. cities, the number of filings is growing.

bali sja 07:35 GMT February 15, 2021

green shoots? one hell of a covid news and it is back to zero...

PAR 07:27 GMT February 15, 2021
WTI Crude
From $-40 to $60 in one year. Starts to look like Bitcoin?

hk ab 07:14 GMT February 15, 2021
housewives new trade today, short XAG 27.4

Mtl JP 07:01 GMT February 15, 2021

stocks -> dlr -> euro
- stocks uP -> dlr DOwn -> euro uP

(jerome: Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month
janet: 'go big' on stimulus)

10-yr: 1.210%

london red 06:57 GMT February 15, 2021

exhaustion of BS trades maybe, but reflation is just getting started. i spoke to folks with shops and businesses in polish tourisim cities last night and they say takings for weekend are higher than at any point last year, even than in the summer. thru the roof. and this is inside school term right now. poland began reopening 12th feb. so this move of real money into real economy businesses is just getting started. what this means for bitcoin meme stocks who knows, but you can be sure real businesses are getting back to business. thats good for the stockmarket overall.

hk ab 03:25 GMT February 15, 2021
some m/t exhaustion feeling today........

could be l/t, depends on how far it goes.....

bali sja 03:08 GMT February 15, 2021
btc leads the way
just dump the dollar against everything else...16 year cycle train cannot be wrong

Macau Steven 01:30 GMT February 15, 2021

Bitcoin starts to symbolise rich, fortune and success.

Do you ever wanna sell your fortune and success?

dc CB 01:09 GMT February 15, 2021

Dear mm

NQ target---13860

how many in and outs...but then you're out arn't you


Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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