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Forex Forum Archive for 02/24/2021

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Mtl JP 23:50 GMT February 24, 2021
Trend - Irony

viies 21:35 if this is any consolation parasites (or viruses) eventually kill their host

dc CB 23:24 GMT February 24, 2021
Trend - Irony
Reply   
they shall not suffer like the common proles - they are better than that.
______________________________________________
The U.S. House version of the “American Rescue Plan Act of 2021” – a $1.9 trillion emergency aid package to help America recover from the coronavirus pandemic has an extra perk for federal workers: Enhanced paid time off if your child is enrolled in a school that isn’t back to full-time, in-classroom instruction.

“Emergency Federal Employee Leave Fund.”
Among those eligible are those who are “unable to work” because they are caring for school-aged children not physically in school full time “due to Covid-19 precautions[.]”

Forbes

Mtl JP 23:22 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

viies 21:35 - fwiw there is a growing pool of analysts / researchers are gunning for yields to revisit lows / go negative

Israel MacroMicro 22:29 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

is there any interest to cause people to buy HSBC to get divident higher than 0.75% annually, holy people does not work in banks, or times changed and I missed it?

Tallinn viies 21:35 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump
Reply   
Bloomberg writes:
global head of fixed income research Steven Major’s
at HSBC, remains “mildly bullish” on Treasuries and hasn’t altered his year-end yield calls, citing demographics that suggest retirement savings of aging populations will continue to flow into bonds.

It’s a stance that’s underpinned his outlook and led him to call a bull run that’s lasted longer than many ever imagined. Major stood out in 2014 for correctly predicting that 10-year yields would drop to about 2.1%, while the median forecast at the start of the year was 3.4%.

He expects the 10-year Treasury yield will end this year at 0.75%, a call well below the consensus of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

“There is a healthy tension between the near-term reflation debate and longer-term secular view of lower-for-longer rates,” Major said. “Ultimately, we think yields will stay low.”

Tallinn viies 21:00 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump
Reply   
nasdaq100 tested back below 50 day sma for 2-nd day in row and bounced again. slow stochastic crossed up today.
inside day today. close near the high of the day.
if tommorow previous day high will be taken out, it is a start for new highs.

london red 20:55 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

yeah copper is just mad. well almost. no new ath made yet. i mean how can you not see a new high abv 464 with all of this money printed. then add in all of this new demand. surely it hits 500 bucks at a minimum. so im comfortable to buy dips in the miners. if we see them. i cut one of my miners this week (bhp). that may turn out to be a shitty move. but i cut and didnt sell entirely, so i will give myself credit there.

dc CB 20:46 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump



Doctor Copper---trading May contract as of today

dc CB 20:37 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump



Only 30 stocks to pump here----no zombies

dc CB 20:31 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump



Will end of month dressing blast this thru?

RE: FED - FOMC 'annces' on March 17, St. Patricks Day --- no parade in NYC --- because of.... you guess.

dc CB 20:18 GMT February 24, 2021
Hyper Active US Treasury

PAR 08:24 GMT 02/24/2021
Difficult to find a nice overview of all the amounts they sell.
Does anybody have a site with an overview?

PAR, start here.
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/press.htm

PAR 19:12 GMT February 24, 2021
FED

Ugly and difficult sell of $61 billion 5 year paper.
Not much interest .

Mtl JP 19:06 GMT February 24, 2021
FED

the last para in the link below:
-
“It will be interesting to see whether households will maintain these high rates of home purchases and refinances into 2021 and more generally how households will adjust their balance sheets depending, in part, on whether and how long forbearances continue on payments on federally backed mortgages and student loans,” New York Fed economists said in a blog post accompanying the release.

Mtl JP 18:46 GMT February 24, 2021
FED

give 'em more . moRE . MORE !!
as the 7 million gumflapper said debt interest payments are a better metric than debt to GDP
-
Household debt rises to $14.6 trillion due to record-breaking rise in mortgage loans

PUBLISHED WED, FEB 17 - cnbc

Mtl JP 18:34 GMT February 24, 2021
FED



what ... or who ... is mixed ?

HK Kevin 17:56 GMT February 24, 2021
EUR/USD trend reversal is imminent!

No luck, stop profit of short EUR position from 1.2156 at 1.2146.

Mtl JP 17:55 GMT February 24, 2021
FED

By Greg Robb
-
Asked if he sees asset bubbles forming- Powell says he sees "a very mixed picture." While "some asset prices are elevated by some measures," other aspects of financial stability remain "moderate" like leverage in the financial system and funding risk,

the Fed chairman said.

Mtl JP 17:32 GMT February 24, 2021
Mkt

what is a school teacher making in Texas - average $60K ?
lesson in automatic cc debit, junk e-mail and flex plans
-
‘I was just panicking’: Some Texans face extraordinary electric bills after winter storms

— but can they do anything about it?

Israel MacroMicro 17:32 GMT February 24, 2021
FED

how you can kill something that does not exist?

PAR 17:27 GMT February 24, 2021
FED
Reply   
FED officials say US unemployment is above 10%.

Official US figures say US unemployment is 6,3%.

What kind of Comedia Del Arte is that.

Economic fake news kill government credibility.

london red 17:10 GMT February 24, 2021
money machine

lol maybe u will be right.
but back in 2018 it peaked about 30 bucks away from its 50dma and we are even further now.

Israel MacroMicro 16:52 GMT February 24, 2021
money machine

why not red?
why not within 3-4 sessions?

seems you after all still trying to act logically :)

london red 16:47 GMT February 24, 2021
money machine

yes looks like it. but i have closed or skimmed a couple of things. CAT up more than 10% in 4 sessions. up nearly 30% abv prev peak in 2018. the high before that was 50%. so maybe some way to go but i dont think they do it over next 3 or 4 sessions.

Mtl JP 16:43 GMT February 24, 2021
money machine

players appear to like what they hear

DJIA 31,778.30 +240.95 +0.76%
SnP 3,904.62 +23.25 +0.60%

10-yr 1.394%

Tallinn viies 16:32 GMT February 24, 2021
money machine
Reply   
powell said: asset prices somewhat elevated.
what???
definatelly not. tesla droped from 900 to 620. this is a miracle. more than 30% discount. people are grazy to buy cheap stock :)

Mtl JP 16:30 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

as insurance comp thrive on higher rates as well

london red 16:24 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

i agree you cant have us rates at 3 or 4% as it will cripple ability to invest after debt repayments. however, mkt is pricing in what it sees and a fast move higher in rates willunsettle those that thrive from low rates capital ie. 100x sales stocks in tech sector. traditional businesses are better equipped to deal with a slightly higher rates environment while banks thrive on it. but to answer your point yes i dont think they will let rates run too far, they will step in front of it before it breaks 2% i think. they may even take mkt action.

Israel MacroMicro 16:13 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

I agree if you are saying that interest rate yields are the graveyard in the making within the financial markets.

Israel MacroMicro 16:10 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

red, I cannot see how markets acting to price something real currently.

we are making money out injections of liquidity pockets generated out political reasoning. in my understanding, those are not real markets. the lucky few will manage to transform those gains into long lasting value, trade hit and run, move the profit into long lasting value. imo

Tallinn viies 16:09 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump
Reply   
london red 15:58 GMT 02/24/2021 - yields never go up.
I have been in banking business more than 25 years.

worked for markets department. we were selling interest rate swaps and cap´s to corporate customers to protect against higher interest rates. just showing historical interest rates charts to client and explaining what may happen if rates go up. blablabla.

during 25 years I can not remember any single customer who have stayed in + with interest rate hedges.
they never go up constantly. maybe 1 year it is moving higher but taking a 5 year average and it is just not possible. there is so much debt in the world and rates can not go up because all world may fall a part then. not able to serve it.
it is not going happen.
world is built this way that stock indexes up and interest rates down. commodities and fx yo-yoing between.

london red 16:07 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

MM, think they are actually performing quite well, as in, as they should. repricing of rates is happening without too much bother so far.

Israel MacroMicro 16:03 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

in the macro field, the most poisonous factor for now are the markets being a political playground. it is not a commodity they price anymore. markets as markets (== to price actual realistic goods) are dead.

Macau Steven 15:59 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

Powell: If bubble cannot save the world, then let me make a bigger one.

london red 15:58 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

well you would expect crude to go up with yields. inflation higher commodities higher. we are probably due a pullback in some commodity areas but thats where you want to be essentially.

Macau Steven 15:58 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

Crude oil
Underlying fundamental is improving and most players are selling on bounce.

Tallinn viies 15:34 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump
Reply   
brent crude just hit new yearly high. up +3% today.
1 month up 22%

so 10 year yield may do whatever. it doesnt matter.

Tallinn viies 15:32 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump
Reply   
my point is Powell has no clue what kind of bubble he is creating.
and this is best what can happen to us. long only plays.

london red 15:18 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

if you take a look at indicies where there is v little tech and low pes, they are firmer today. uk ft100 has been slapped about and knocked down more times than tigers woods girlfriends but isnt being affected by the rates cycle negatively given the very low pe ratios and high weighting in inflation sensitive elements such as commodities and financials. a severe storm takes all boats down but while its a gentle climb on rates, these kinds of stocks do well.

Mtl JP 15:18 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump



something wrong with the tesla +46% 3 months return

Mtl JP 15:12 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

more than 20% of just SnP listed companies are "zombie"
zombie: unable to pay interest on debt

london red 15:12 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

viies, s&p less so given majority are on lesser multiples so higher rates affect the future cashflow less. its the techs with high pe ratio or those without pe ratios at all, the jam tomorrow ones that get biggest hit.

Israel MacroMicro 15:12 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

those with risk appetite for the very short term may play long now

NQ

Tallinn viies 15:11 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump
Reply   
last 3 months offered investors exeptionally good returns.
Powell just confirmed with his speech it will continue...

3 months returns:
eurusd +2,4%
crude oil +46%
nasdaq100 +9%
tesla +46%
audusd +8,5%
iron ore +33%
corn +32%
wheat +14%
soybeans +20%
rapeseed +16%
silver +14%
gamestop +264%
lumber +62%

choose you battle and just buy stuff this is the message from Powell.

Tallinn viies 14:51 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump
Reply   
and it doesnt influence sp500 companies?
sp500 -5 points.

Hk Ab 14:50 GMT February 24, 2021
Carry
Reply   
Do we have a glimpse chance to resume carry game after 20 years now?

london red 14:49 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

viies, look up discounted cash flow.

Tallinn viies 14:44 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump
Reply   
explaining ndx move down by 10 year yield is fantastic :)
companys who do not have debt or if they have they just issued debt due to the capital structure wanted by coprorate finance people. apple donot need any kind of debt but they issuing because it is looking better in balance sheet.
cash is sitting on corp accounts, waiting to buy back stocks.

Israel MacroMicro 14:42 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

to be clearer, I do not call for sub 12K this week
during March, yes!

tomorrow it will be probably the last spike to sell NQ - imo

Israel MacroMicro 14:39 GMT February 24, 2021
Mkt

anyway, NQ 12948 crucial for now

Israel MacroMicro 14:33 GMT February 24, 2021
Mkt

who will pay for underpants of HKG housewife?

Hk Ab 14:32 GMT February 24, 2021
Mkt
Reply   
In hk, we have a say that ppl need to sell their underpants when mkt collapse, I think that’s not too far away.


Israel MacroMicro 14:30 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

sub 12K a sort of "must" happen level with "happy hours" cash session tomorrow before getting the kiss of death. imo

PAR 14:28 GMT February 24, 2021
POWELL

The not so great US economy needs more opioids.


We’re 10 million jobs below where we were in February 2020, 10 million payroll jobs…and a lot of those jobs were concentrated in the lower end of the income spectrum. Many parts of the economy have recovered, but in the bottom quartile we think the unemployment rate is in excess of 20%,” he said.

london red 14:27 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

setchs wont be liking speed of the 10, ndx nearterm looks like testing 100dma c 12500.

Israel MacroMicro 14:25 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

(BTC >= $1m) == an asset class bigger than US GDP

long live the people trust to buy a home with a bulb of tulips

Israel MacroMicro 14:23 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

some enjoy to feel and to cause anal(ysis) pain

Macau Steven 14:21 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

Some analysts already talking 4 million target.

london red 14:19 GMT February 24, 2021
eurusd

the 10 approaching 2019 low of 1.428. a break there tgts 1.50 the neck of the former shs which broke lower on covid. if 1.50-1.60 breaks prob looking at 2% before a pullback and quite quickly i would imagine. i would guess that would mean the financials hold up better but most stocks would be under pressure short term before the sort wheat from chaff

Tallinn viies 14:18 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump
Reply   
as Powell just said: noone able to identify asset bubbles.
so why not bitcoin can go to 1 000 000 usd.
it is only 20 times up from here.

Hk Ab 14:06 GMT February 24, 2021
Betcoin

What 1 mil target?

Tallinn viies 14:05 GMT February 24, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
200 hour sma today at 1,2116.
this should offer good opportunity to add euro longs today.
expected daily range today 66 points.

Macau Steven 13:59 GMT February 24, 2021
Betcoin

Give some more patience for bitcoin as 1 million target is not too far away

Bangkok KC 13:36 GMT February 24, 2021
EUR/USD trend reversal is imminent!

Yes, GOLD will collpase too.

Hk Ab 13:35 GMT February 24, 2021
Betcoin
Reply   
Should be betcoin

Hk Ab 13:33 GMT February 24, 2021
EUR/USD trend reversal is imminent!

Real collapse probably gold if the yield hit 3%.

Gb and aud just take a break. I would reload later on gbp at 1.35-6

PAR 13:32 GMT February 24, 2021
POWELL
Reply   
Powell will again explain that the FED remains the drug dealer for a US economy addicted to QE and super-easy monetary policy opioids.

Bangkok KC 13:28 GMT February 24, 2021
EUR/USD trend reversal is imminent!

Follow by AUD/USD and GBP/USD collapse.

Tallinn viies 13:21 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump
Reply   
if nasdaq100 moves below 12 500 then I need to rethink, otherwise this technical analyse during money print is useless. as forecasting weather with tech anal.
as long as powell not saying otherwise we go to the moon. or actually to mars. srry elon.
14 400 next stop in march.

Bangkok KC 13:20 GMT February 24, 2021
EUR/USD trend reversal is imminent!

EUR/USD collapse is coming. Fasten your seatbelt.

london red 13:03 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

ndx 13337 is 50% retracment of fall. 13472 is 61.8. shs neck of hourly id 13440 and dropping just under half a point every hour. i think that lot may hold any rally for now as they still got some rotating to do.

Israel MacroMicro 12:46 GMT February 24, 2021
Gbp

london red 12:06

those vampires will not stop as long there is blood left in every and each stop around :)

Israel MacroMicro 12:35 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

viies, I can see NQ taking a serious hit within the next 36 hours.

some will name it very serious hit. good luck!

london red 12:06 GMT February 24, 2021
Gbp

yes huge stops were run. that often means a period of sideways or retracement as no easy pickings now.

Caribbean! Rafe... 12:06 GMT February 24, 2021
CAD

Still there is time to get on the USD/CAD train for 1.12.

Hk Ab 11:38 GMT February 24, 2021
Gbp
Reply   
Isn’t it an exhaustion? Let’s see.

Tallinn viies 11:22 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump
Reply   
nasdaq100 mission today is get back above previous day high to get things going again to upside.
yesterday tested back below 50 day sma but bounced back sharply.
after last test on 1-st of february index moved up 1150 points with 11 days. so this the move we should expect now. within next 2 weeks 14 300 my target.

Tallinn viies 10:35 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump
Reply   
closed half of my eurgbp position at 0,8570.
other half will stay for 0,8250.
trying to resell near 200 hour sma, currently near 0,8677.

Tallinn viies 10:33 GMT February 24, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
same same different day. euro made again higher high (new monthly high) and higher low yesterday. monthly trading range tooo tight currently. need to widen at least 100 points.
target today 1,2210.
by end of the week expect euro move up to 1,2285.
will revaluate if trades below previous week low 1,2024 otherwise all cool. 1,3200 target months ahead.

Mtl JP 10:26 GMT February 24, 2021
yield

Gold
-
as long as there are at least three humans on the planet gold will live

Yen
-
sits on top of ring of fire (moving tectonic plates) that goes some 26,000 feet deep (~8Km)

hk ab 09:04 GMT February 24, 2021
yield

Gold could be a victim.... if it dips under 1760, will be a much more serious victim.....

Guess who dies first? Yen or gold?

hk ab 08:59 GMT February 24, 2021
Mkt

This is moral move as HK prevents hot money pouring into the stox mkt like US......

hk ab 08:57 GMT February 24, 2021
yield
Reply   
mkt is using "chasing the yield" excuse to kill the past 3 years shorts on GBP, Aud and Cad, Dlrjpy will also be the star of the game soon.

Bitcoin? seems no one care at the moment.

Mtl JP 08:52 GMT February 24, 2021
Mkt

did you fell the earth move
-
Hang Seng Index
29,718.24 -914.40 -2.99%

after a 30% tax hike on share trading

jkt abel 08:44 GMT February 24, 2021
EUR/USD trend reversal is imminent!

you have been singing that mantra for some time! and the opposite happened

PAR 08:24 GMT February 24, 2021
Hyper Active US Treasury
Reply   
The US Treasury will sell $61 billion of 5-year Notes.


Difficult to find a nice overview of all the amounts they sell.
Does anybody have a site with an overview?

Bangkok KC 03:36 GMT February 24, 2021
EUR/USD trend reversal is imminent!

Buy USD and sell other pairs.

Bangkok KC 03:34 GMT February 24, 2021
EUR/USD trend reversal is imminent!

EUR will fall sharply against USD soon. USD/CHF is in advance. USD/JPY will rise to 110. USD bull is coming back against all major currency pair. AUD/USD collapse is imminent.

Macau Steven 01:45 GMT February 24, 2021
eurusd

How high will oil go when life is back to normal by Q3-Q4?

Central Kwun 01:38 GMT February 24, 2021
above 1800 is buy

Buy Gold
Entry: 1809 Target: Stop: 1795

Keep Buying if above 1800, the others non USD are all rising, Gold will follow

dc CB 00:39 GMT February 24, 2021
pump n pump

ending????

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